The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[FlashMaster659]

So unless the Moreno Valley theater puts up showtimes today, Joker will starting with 139 showtimes with 33947 total seats available in the Inland Empire.

Edited September 23, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, FlashMaster659 said:

So unless the Moreno Valley theater puts up showtimes today, Joker will starting with 135 showtimes with 32239 total seats available in the Inland Empire.

That is crazy about of seats to track !!!!

 

 

[excel1]

MovieTickets doesn't show the % anymore? And Fandango thing is gone?

[Inceptionzq]

3 minutes ago, excel1 said:

MovieTickets doesn't show the % anymore? And Fandango thing is gone?

That was quite a while ago lol

[excel1]

Just now, Inceptionzq said:

That was quite a while ago lol

Lame. so how tf we supposed to track?

[Eric Duncan]

4 hours ago, Eric! said:

Kinda just scanned through sales, so it's not really super accurate, but it's made about 161 tickets within the past hour and a half, which I guess is fine. Gotta wait until the day ends to really get a good grasp though.

 

One thing of note is that the 4PM sales have been almost non-existent. Almost as if maybe starting previews at a time when its target audience is just getting home from work is a stupid idea or something.

Well, a couple hours later, the movie's already sold 444 tickets. It's already more than half of what It2 garnered at the same point in time, and It2 had way more presale days. Don't know what this means for tonight, but it's already going strong.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

To me target is around 15-20m previews. Let us see if PS is holding strong enough for that range.

I would hella pump the brakes on that target. Like slam them so down I might get whiplash.

 

Just did my initial seat map and while Jokah is doing pretty well it is nowhere near a 18m opener (mid point range of your target).  In the four hours or so of ticket sales, I've seen 338 tickets sold.  Was the morning in Sacto, so still lots of time left.

 

For what it's worth, even with extreme frontloading, I'd expect something with that level of previews to open to at least 125m OW, and I don't see any sign of that yet.

 

Let's shoot for 10m previews first and then see where we go from there.

 

===

 

I would also note I'm already seeing something of an urban/suburban/exurban split and I will be very curious to see if it continues.  If so, big theaters in city cores might, and I do stress might, over-index.

[Porthos]

35 minutes ago, excel1 said:

MovieTickets doesn't show the % anymore? And Fandango thing is gone?

MT.com blew up and disintegrated late May and Fandango Pulse went away late June.

 

30 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Lame. so how tf we supposed to track?

You're looking at it.  

 

Basically a few trackers in this thread have taken it upon themselves to track individual markets.  We've been getting pretty good results so far on a whole range of movies.

 

Takes more effort than before, but it seems to be working out. 

[cax16]

32 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I would hella pump the brakes on that target. Like slam them so down I might get whiplash.

 

Just did my initial seat map and while Jokah is doing pretty well it is nowhere near a 18m opener (mid point range of your target).  In the four hours or so of ticket sales, I've seen 338 tickets sold.  Was the morning in Sacto, so still lots of time left.

 

For what it's worth, even with extreme frontloading, I'd expect something with that level of previews to open to at least 125m OW, and I don't see any sign of that yet.

 

Let's shoot for 10m previews first and then see where we go from there.

 

===

 

I would also note I'm already seeing something of an urban/suburban/exurban split and I will be very curious to see if it continues.  If so, big theaters in city cores might, and I do stress might, over-index.

I think this might be the case for a lot regions in the states and Canada.

 

I just checked my area and downtown Toronto and I’m seeing the same thing, for example my theatre has sold 12/380 for the 7:30 preview show while downtown Toronto imax at scotiabank theatre already has 116 seats sold for the show at 7:30.

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

Joker -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 10 Days to Previews -- 330pm CST

 

Dolby / IMAX: 6 showtimes, 110 tickets sold out of 1068 available (10.30%)

Digital: 4 showtimes, 6 tickets sold out of 500 available (01.20%)

Total: 10 showtimes, 116 tickets sold out of 1568 available (07.40%) 

[FlashMaster659]

Pre-sales definitely seem to be concentrated toward PLFs as well

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

In my country, this is opening on a Wednesday, which local theaters only do for releases that are bound to be huge.Endgame was the last movie that got that treatment.

 

Unlike Endgame though, which played since early Wednesday with theaters opening very early in the morning for the first time ever,Joker will start playing from Wednesday at 10 am.

 

So,yeah,I haven’t tracked any movie since Endgame, which was freaking insane and unlike anything i’ve Seen before.My country doesn’t do much presales.Now Joker is a quite interesting so I think I might track it.From a quick look today...

 

0 sold out showing but the biggest auditoriums are selling well.

[Inceptionzq]

Joker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24
Dolby:
4:00 PM	4	217
7:00 PM	52	217
10:00 PM	15	217
Prime:
4:30 PM	4	187
7:30 PM	15	187
10:30 PM	0	187
2D:
5:00 PM	3	158
5:30 PM	0	92
6:30 PM	3	94
8:00 PM	9	158
8:30 PM	4	92
9:30 PM	0	94
11:00 PM	0	158

 

AMC Highlands 24
IMAX:
4:30 PM	3	384
7:30 PM	5	384
10:30 PM	0	384
Dolby:
4:00 PM	5	210
7:00 PM	31	210
10:00 PM	8	210
2D:
5:15 PM	0	159
5:45 PM	0	159
6:15 PM	0	85
6:30 PM	0	85
7:15 PM	0	52
8:15 PM	0	159
8:45 PM	2	159
9:15 PM	0	85
9:30 PM	0	85
10:15 PM	2	52

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
355	355	14066	2.52%	8	79

Seems like a good start. Comps are worthless right now. One theater has yet to put up showings, and multiple theaters don't look like they've posted their full lineup yet. So, there's probably still a lot more to come. 

Also, are the lines on the charts not showing up for anyone? It was doing that for me yesterday, but magically appeared a couple hours after I posted.

[Porthos]

Alright, so on the one hand this is still a DC CBM, if a very atypical one.  On the other hand, hard-R adult skewing film.  Third hand, frackin' 4pm previews.

 

I'll stick with DC films and throw in a few other multis for fun:

 

Shazam! (4pm):                 5.9m/53.5m  9.1x (NOT including early access in preview or OW totals)

Aquaman (5pm):                  9m/67.9m  7.5x (NOT including early access in preview or OW totals)

Justice League (6pm):         13m/93.8m  7.2x

Wonder Woman (7pm):     11m/103.3m  9.4x

Suicide Squad (6pm):    20.5m/133.7m  6.5x

 

It 2 (5pm):                   10.5m/91.1m   8.7x

It (7pm):                      13.5m/123.4m 9.1x

John Wick 3 (7pm):       5.9m/56.8m   9.6x

Deadpool 2 (7pm):      18.6m/125.5m  6.7x 

Venom (5pm):                10m/80.3m    8.0x

Logan (7pm):                9.5m/88.4m    9.3x

Deadpool 1 (7pm):     12.7m/132.4m 10.4x

 

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (4pm):    5.8m/41.1m 7.1x

(some thoughts on all of this next post)

Edited September 23, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Alright, so on the one hand this is still a DC CBM, if a very atypical one.  On the other hand, hard-R adult skewing film.  Third hand, frackin' 4pm previews.

 

I'll stick with DC films and throw in a few other multis for fun:

 

Shazam! (4pm):                 5.9m/53.5m  9.1x (NOT including early access in preview or OW totals)

Aquaman (5pm):                  9m/67.9m  7.5x (NOT including early access in preview or OW totals)

Justice League (6pm):         13m/93.8m  7.2x

Wonder Woman (7pm):     11m/103.3m  9.4x

Suicide Squad (6pm):    20.5m/133.7m  6.5x

 

It 2 (5pm):                   10.5m/91.1m   8.7x

It (7pm):                      13.5m/123.4m 9.1x

John Wick 3 (7pm):       5.9m/56.8m   9.6x

Deadpool 2 (7pm):      18.6m/125.5m  6.7x 

Venom (5pm):                10m/80.3m    8.0x

Logan (7pm):                9.5m/88.4m    9.3x

Deadpool 1 (7pm):     12.7m/132.4m 10.4x

 

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (4pm):    5.8m/41.1m 7.1x

(some thoughts on all of this next post)

 

I'd be tempted to throw in some more R-rated non-CBM comps, but how many of them had anything close to the sheer amount of showtimes that Joker will get?   Even putting in OUaTiH is lol-worthy, but I did it for recent 4pm R-rated film comp.

 

Looking at the other main preview chart (over at Box Office Report), the list of R-rated films that opened north of 10m in previews and started at 4pm or 5pm is exactly It 2 and nothing else.

 

Expanding past R-rated doesn't help* as only Venom then shows up, though it does kinda fit as it was a pretty hard PG-13.

*They count the various "Opening Night Fan Events" as the official start time for what its worth, hence the 5pm start for films like Endgame and The Lion King, even though most folks would probably consider that a 6pm start time.

 

I hate to play the "there's no good comps for this movie" card yet again this year, but... Well the comps that would be good for this film didn't start at 4pm/5pm or have nearly the level of showtimes. Even something sorta good like It/It 2 is hampered by the difference in sale patters.

Which brings up the elephant in the room.  Even if there was a good comp for Joker, having only 11 days of pre-sales fucks with comps something hard. 

 

So, basically, take most of them with a grain of salt until this weekend/early next week.  By then things should have had more than enough time to normalize.

 

As for myself, I'll probably bite the bullet and use DP2 and It 2 as my main comps.  Don't really have anything else good, but I'm open to suggestions.

Edited September 23, 2019 by Porthos

[Old Spice]

Joker, Day 1, Salt Lake City, Sugarhouse Cinemark, 8 preview night screenings.

 

32/507 6.3%

 

Since the comps are meaningless at this point, I'm just going to keep a running total of where Joker is compared to other films on their preview afternoon final report, and update every night between now and next Wednesday. So after one day of sales, it is:

 

40% of Dark Phoenix total

29% of John Wick "

32% of Godzilla "

9% of IT2 "

17% of Pika "

16% of OUATIH "

 

Seems like a solid, if not mind-blowing start.

[excel1]

Walk ups propelled THE DARK KNIGHT 50% over its tracking and will no doubt do the same for this. $200m incoming

[cdsacken]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

I would hella pump the brakes on that target. Like slam them so down I might get whiplash.

 

Just did my initial seat map and while Jokah is doing pretty well it is nowhere near a 18m opener (mid point range of your target).  In the four hours or so of ticket sales, I've seen 338 tickets sold.  Was the morning in Sacto, so still lots of time left.

 

For what it's worth, even with extreme frontloading, I'd expect something with that level of previews to open to at least 125m OW, and I don't see any sign of that yet.

 

Let's shoot for 10m previews first and then see where we go from there.

 

===

 

I would also note I'm already seeing something of an urban/suburban/exurban split and I will be very curious to see if it continues.  If so, big theaters in city cores might, and I do stress might, over-index.

Do remember how crazy the predictions were for once upon a Time on Hollywood. Sticking with 105m OW which is pretty monstrous for a film in between genres that is super violent and disturbing. Hell it's not my cup of tea but I'm gonna see it. Too much hype not to 

[Porthos]

48 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Walk ups propelled THE DARK KNIGHT 50% over its tracking and will no doubt do the same for this. $200m incoming

For total DOM?  Think you're lowballing a DC property for once, excel. 

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

I would hella pump the brakes on that target. Like slam them so down I might get whiplash.

 

Just did my initial seat map and while Jokah is doing pretty well it is nowhere near a 18m opener (mid point range of your target).  In the four hours or so of ticket sales, I've seen 338 tickets sold.  Was the morning in Sacto, so still lots of time left.

 

For what it's worth, even with extreme frontloading, I'd expect something with that level of previews to open to at least 125m OW, and I don't see any sign of that yet.

 

Let's shoot for 10m previews first and then see where we go from there.

 

===

 

I would also note I'm already seeing something of an urban/suburban/exurban split and I will be very curious to see if it continues.  If so, big theaters in city cores might, and I do stress might, over-index.

You could be right. Its just top of the head prediction based on anecdotal data. But with 4PM previews and ginormous number of preview shows, its gonna be frontloaded for sure. But I am with you on going slow. Lots of movies give heady projections after OD PS(I remember TS4 for sure this summer) but then slowed down dramatically. Let us see how things go for Joker. But it has so many things going for it. Fairly empty market and hype is there for a big Deadpool sized breakout. We will know by next week for sure looking at so much data put into this thread.

 

On Empire 25 I will probably take final  check at midnight CST but for now its at 957 tickets sold. So could be touch and go for 1000 tickets sold for OD.