The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[excel1]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

For total DOM?  Think you're lowballing a DC property for once, excel. 

opening day

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, excel1 said:

opening day

Now there's the excel I remembered from ye olden days. 👍  

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

You could be right. Its just top of the head prediction based on anecdotal data. But with 4PM previews and ginormous number of preview shows, its gonna be frontloaded for sure. But I am with you on going slow. Lots of movies give heady projections after OD PS(I remember TS4 for sure this summer) but then slowed down dramatically. Let us see how things go for Joker. But it has so many things going for it. Fairly empty market and hype is there for a big Deadpool sized breakout. We will know by next week for sure looking at so much data put into this thread.

 

On Empire 25 I will probably take final  check at midnight CST but for now its at 957 tickets sold. So could be touch and go for 1000 tickets sold for OD.

 

 

I do think with the ginormous number of showings,  I won't be surprised at something in the 12 to 15 range (if with a 7x to 8x multi [and of course the higher the preview number, the lower the multi]).  I just want to see the data first before thinking it's all that likely.

 

Haven't done my first real check, as I'll start that in about an hour.  For me though, even that won't tell me all that much.  It'll be its day two, three, and four sales which will help tell me just how high this might go.  And here I'll be keeping a half an eye on Fallen Kingdom's numbers, as it started out (we thought) relatively low, but just had a consistently strong 23 days of pre-sales. 

 

If Joker is gonna get around 13 to 15m in Thr pre-sales, I'd expect it to do something similar.  Especially since it has even fewer days than JW:FK had.

Edited September 24, 2019 by Porthos

[Eric Atreides]

Abominable Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	37	46	5,400	0.85%

 

Comp

0.489x of Dora 3 days before release (612K)

2.706x of Racing in Rain 3 days before release (1.2M)

 

Sales seem pretty mediocre for the time being, but to be fair to Abomianble, this isn't a movie that is designed to have strong previews. And of course, we have a couple days away. But again, nothing really interesting to say here.

 

And now, the big guns.

[Legion Again]

Amusingly a 200M OD is actually no longer in that “lolol, this number is so utterly impossible for any movie” realm anymore. That’s only 27% above the current OD record 🤣

Edited September 24, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Eric Atreides]

Joker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	597	16,691	3.58%

 

Comp

0.688x of It: Chapter Two 10 days before release (7.22M)

 

Adjusted Comp

2.273x of Hobbs & Shaw 10 days before release (13.2M)

 

This was a very good first day. That IT 2 comp might make some people pause, but it is important to recognize that It 2 had a couple weeks worth of presales to boost its numbers at the same point in time. I need a couple more days of course, but 10M+ previews, I feel, are still very, very possible at the moment. 

[Eric Atreides]

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	23	81	6,075	1.36%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 134

Total Seats Sold Today: 1

 

Still doing its thing. Still boring.

[keysersoze123]

Joker Previews

AMC Empire 25.

 

Slowed down after a fast start. Still a great number compared to what IT2 did in its OD.

 

Spoiler

AMC Empire 25 Joker Previews
Imax:      20/303(430PM),     189/303(730PM),      34/303(1030PM)Total 243/909
Dolby:      66/225(400PM),     183/225(700PM),      75/225(1000PM)Total 324/675
Prime:      42/180(500PM),     111/180(800PM),      19/180(1100PM)Total 172/540
2D:       2/122(A10 410PM),       3/377(A13 415PM),       4/121(A15 420PM),99(A11 440PM),       4/158(A6 450PM),       4/146(A7 510PM),
       2/145(A25 520PM),       4/309(A14 530PM),      14/144(A20 540PM),       6/134(A5 550PM),       5/309(A9 6PM),       2/121(A21 610PM),
       4/126(A3 620PM),      11/262(A17 630PM),       8/99(A16 640PM),      15/142(A19 650PM),       8/122(A10 710PM),      12/377(A13 715PM),
      13/121(A15 720PM),       2/99(A11 740PM),       5/158(A6 750PM),       4/146(A7 810PM),       7/145(A25 820PM),      13/309(A14 830PM),
       8/144(A20 840PM),       6/134(A5 850PM),       0/309(A9 9PM),       2/121(A21 910PM),       5/126(A3 920PM),      12/262(A17 930PM),
       8/99(A16 940PM),       9/142(A19 950PM),       2/122(A10 1010PM),       3/377(A13 1015PM),       2/121(A15 1020PM)
       0/99(A11 1040PM),       4/158(A6 1050PM),       2/146(A7 1110PM),       2/145(A25 1120PM),       1/309(A14 1020PM)
       8/144(A20 1140PM),       6/134(A5 1150PM),       0/309(A9 12AM)  Total 232/7692

Overall 971/9816

 

 

I also looked at AMC 34th stree and it sold 475 tickets there as well. Very good with lot fewer shows compared to AMC Empire 25. I am just tracking tickets sold overall instead of per show break up.

 

Spoiler

AMC 34th St Joker Previews
Imax:212
Dolby:178
2d:85
Overall:475

 

[Inceptionzq]

1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

Amusingly a 200M OD is actually no longer in that “lolol, this number is so utterly impossible for any movie” realm anymore. That’s only 27% above the current OD record 🤣

Nah there’s no way any movie in the foreseeable future is gonna get close. Only 5 movies have broken 85M, and they were: Endgame, TFA, IW, TLJ, and Deathly Hallows Part 2. And only 4 with 100M+, Avengers and Star Wars movies. TRoS is the only movie that actually has a shot of joining that list for a while. And there’s definitely no movie that will reach Endgame levels of hype for a very long time, much less even get close to 200M.

[keysersoze123]

Instead of clicking links for like 52 shows I copied links and automated via shell script. I wish I could scrape the overall shows page but that page initially displays nothing but then refreshes to showlist and that does not help via command line. Still I am able to refresh tickets sold for these 2 Plexes in couple of minutes instead of 20 minutes of work for each check point 🙂

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Nah there’s no way any movie in the foreseeable future is gonna get close. Only 5 movies have broken 85M, and they were: Endgame, TFA, IW, TLJ, and Deathly Hallows Part 2. And only 4 with 100M+, Avengers and Star Wars movies. TRoS is the only movie that actually has a shot of joining that list for a while. And there’s definitely no movie that will reach Endgame levels of hype for a very long time, much less even get close to 200M.

Yeah, 200M probably won’t be for 5+ years in my estimation. But it’s still roughly the same ballpark as an actual OD that has happened, which is kind of wild.     

 

4 years ago the OD record was 91M, and it had been the same for over 4 years by then, so my point was just that even very recently 200M OD would have sounded completely out of calibration with reality. As much above the record as a 350M OD in the present.

Edited September 24, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[FlashMaster659]

Joker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	% Sold
TOTALS	0	143	1711	34807	33096	4.92%

 

Seats Sold Today: 1711

 

===

 

I'd say this was a strong launch for Joker pre-sales. When I started tracking It: 2 in the Inland Empire at T-5 days, it had sold 3182 seats by that time.

[Cap]

Joker

Thursday Previews

 

LS13 - First Day Sales
Movie	Sold	%	Estimate
Endgame	4665	23.19%	13.92M
Joker	1082	---	---
Lion King	1002	107.98%	24.83M
Dark Phoenix	479	225.88%	11.29M
Godzilla	434	249.30%	15.71M
John Wick 3	313	345.68%	---
It: Chapter 2	306	353.59%	37.12M
Toy Story 4	287	377%	45.24M
Aladdin	277	390.61%	27.34M
Ad Astra	229	472.48%	7.09M
Thorkyrie AU	203	533%	16.52M
Yesterday	182	594.50%	---
Pika Pika	155	698.06%	---
Hustlers	142	733.80%	---
Rocketman	122	886.88%	---
Hobbs & Shaw	65	1664.61%	---
Maleficent: MOE	50	2164%	UNK
Secret Lives of Pets 2	9	12022.22%	---

 

---  Movie Not Released in IMAX

UNK Movie Previews Unknown

 

So.  Massive day.  As always, 95% of the sales were for the IMAX and Dolby showings.  Because I'm embracing this 'We Live In A Society' Jokester Gibberish, I tossed up some comps.  I'd toss everything but Endgame, Dark Phoenix, and Godzilla, so that's

 

EG 13.92M

DP 11.29M

GZ 15.71M

 

13.64M average.  Let's see if the range can go up, but right now Lincoln Square's looking at like 11.5M to 16M.  And the theater's expecting it.  They put it in all of the 300+ STD theaters.  Gonna be a huge weekend.  Should be fun.

 

ETA:

 

AND FOR how the other half live, here's Cinemagic:

 

Fist Day Sales Cinemagic
Endgame	1138	1.23%	738K
Godzilla	15	93.33%	5.88M
Toy Story 4	15	93.33%	11.20M
Joker	14	--	--
The Lion King	12	125%	28.75M

Edited September 24, 2019 by captainwondyful

[TMP]

5 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Because I'm embracing this 'We Live In A Society' Jokester Gibberish

Wait, so we don't live in a Society?!?

[Porthos]

I just literally choked out laughing when I saw what the total for tickets sold for Joker was in Sacto today.

 

Y'all will see what I mean in a few minutes.  Right now I'm debating whether or not I want to include any comps at this stage, as all my T-10 comps are exceedingly lol-worthy.  And my Day 1 comp against It 2 is equally lol-worthy, just in the other directions.

Decisions, decisions, decisions...

[Legion Again]

This “Day 1 is also Day -10” business is very thematically appropriate for Joker, I must say.

[Porthos]

Joker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	194	23133	23799	666	2.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

666

 

Yes, that's right.  666 tickets sold in the Sacto region today.

 

Thoughts and partial comp discussion incoming.

 

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, TMP said:

Wait, so we don't live in a Society?!?

The deeper truth is that society lives within us 

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Joker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	194	23133	23799	666	2.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

666

 

Yes, that's right.  666 tickets sold in the Sacto region today.

 

Thoughts and partial comp discussion incoming.

 

 

My problem is that right now is that Joker sold 3x the tickets It 2 did on its first day (219), but about 55% of the tickets It 2 had sold by T-10 (1202). 

 

Neither is a very good comp. At all.

 

The DP2 comp at T-10 is even worse at around 22% of DP2 at T-10 (4.1m)

 

I think, ironically enough, a good Day One comp might just be Captain Marvel.  That sold 1498 tickets on its first day+ of sales, which would comp to (on an adjusted basis) 9.14m (Joker adjusted tickets sold would be 662 in this case).

 

That's easily the best comp I actually have for Day One.

 

The other yardstick I have that is remotely plausible for Day One is Fallen Kingdom.  On an adjusted basis, Joker sold 637 tickets region wide.  Fallen Kingdom sold 595 tickets on its first day.  That comps to 16.38m.  Lol-worthy, but not nearly as lol-worthy as either 31.5m or 5.77m (the two respective It 2 comps).

 

I want to sit and think on this for a while about putting in either T-10 or Day 1 comps of what I actually have.  If I do, I'll make a separate post sometime tonight before I go to bed.  

 

Otherwise I might just hold off on comps for a couple of days.  I'd rather have no data to comp with at all than widely misleading data.

Edited September 24, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

As I now look at @Eric!, @captainwondyful, and @FlashMaster659 numbers and think about them a bit, I have to wonder if Sacramento is massively underperforming.

 

Usually Sacto runs about 1.5x to 2x on a daily basis for what Eric! tracks in Philly.  Today it barely cleared his number. I haven't paid enough attention to FlashMaster659's daily numbers to get good sense of things, but I suspect I am also way behind him.  And just going off the comps captainwondyful provided, I see Sacramento is way off there as well.

 

I mentioned before that Joker wasn't doing well at all in some areas of town, and that continued tonight.  It did very well at Arden and at one showing at Studio Movie Grill.  But in other places, it was ghost town city.

 

Decent enough elsewhere, but not super sized traffic.

 

Not much to say on that except: Huh.

 

Well that and I want to keep an eye on things to see if it keeps up locally or not. Might just be a local variation on Day One.  But it is absolutely eyebrow raising and something I want to keep an eye on going forward.

 

Edited September 24, 2019 by Porthos