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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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@Porthos Remember though, my LS13 comps will be totally skewed due to the combo of the IMAX screen and the fanboy rush. If you look at it as Cinemagic, first day looked like TLK, TS4 and Godzilla. 

 

Tomorrow I will go through my numbers again and look at just the IMAX screen for comps. 

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55 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

@Porthos Remember though, my LS13 comps will be totally skewed due to the combo of the IMAX screen and the fanboy rush. If you look at it as Cinemagic, first day looked like TLK, TS4 and Godzilla. 

 

Tomorrow I will go through my numbers again and look at just the IMAX screen for comps. 

True true, I was mostly commenting on CoolEric258's number, while throwing in some other observations.

 

But, really, the more I think about it, the more I kinda think Joker didn't do very well locally at all.  At Arden it sold 204 tickets.  At T-10, It 2 had sold 316 tickets.  That's fairly in line with CoolEric's It 2 T-10 comp (6.71m vs 7.22m).  

 

Problem is, everywhere else outside of a couple of other theaters, it didn't do well at all.  Blue Oaks, one of the other heavy hitters locally, only sold 73 tickets for Joker today.  By the time It 2 had hit T-10, it had sold 161 tickets.  That comps to 4.76m. 

 

Delta Shores (9.79m) was one of the few places to do really well, but at Joker's 55 versus It 2's 59, we're not talking many tickets.  Other "A" and "B" tier theaters also really underperformed (not gonna go through them all).

 

I ain't pressing a panic button.  Or really saying anything other than "Huh" and "curious".  Just have to see if this continues or not, is more or less what I am saying. I doubt it will.  But then again, I doubted Joker would open to this level of ticket sales locally, so there we are.

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5 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Yeah, 200M probably won’t be for 5+ years in my estimation. But it’s still roughly the same ballpark as an actual OD that has happened, which is kind of wild.     

 

4 years ago the OD record was 91M, and it had been the same for over 4 years by then, so my point was just that even very recently 200M OD would have sounded completely out of calibration with reality. As much above the record as a 350M OD in the present.

Still, I don’t think anything will match the hype of Endgame for a long time. Even if something did within the next 5ish years, will ticket price inflation be enough? Nobody really knows. But average ticket price growth has slowed down quite a bit. It took 10 years for the average ticket price to increase by 27% from 2008-2018. Before that, it increased 53% from 1998-2008. And only 12% from 2013-2018.
 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/about/adjuster.htm

 

I think Endgame is the peak of the MCU. It’ll still be really successful though. TFA is the peak of Star Wars. I don’t think Avatar will reach the heights of the MCU or Star Wars. So, unless ticket prices go through the roof, I really don’t think a 200M OD is possible for a long long time. Unless the Avatar movies surprise, what could be more hyped than the return of Star Wars or the culmination of an 11 year saga?

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On 8/23/2019 at 2:25 AM, belligerent talking robot said:

50 - Midway - 50                                    40 - Charlies Angels - 40

27 - Doctor Sleep - 27                            20 - Midway - 90

15 - Terminator - 70                               12 - Doctor Sleep - 48

15 - The Last Xmas - 15                          10 - Ford v Ferrari - 10

10 - Playing With Fire - 10                      10 - The Good Liar - 10

 8 - Maleficent - 150                                 7 - Terminator - 84

 6 - Artic Dogs - 20                                   7 - The Last Xmas - 28

 6 - Harriet - 20                                         5 - Playing with Fire - 19

 6 - Motherless Brooklyn - 20                   4 - Maleficent - 156

 2 - Black & Blue - 22                                4 - All Rise - 4

 2 - Countdown - 22

 2 - Last Full Measure - 22

 2 - Zombieland - 62

 

530 - The Lion King

390 - Spider-Man

260 - It: Chapter 2

260 - Joker

170 - Hobbes & Shaw

140 - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

 67 - Good Boys

 57 - The Addams Family

 55 - AD Astra

 55 - Dora the Explorer

 55 - Rambo: The Last Blood

 55 - Abominable

 44 - Angel Has Fallen 

 44 - Angry Birds 2

 43 - The Hustle 

 40 - Gemini Man

 33 - Ready or Not

 30 - Goldfinch 

 28 - Jex

20.0 - Abominable - 20.0
14.0 - Downtown Abbey - 54.0
10.0 - AD Astra - 35.0
10.0 - Rambo: Last Blood - 35.0
10.0 - Hustlers - 78.0
10.0 - It: Chapter Two - 194.0

 1.5 - The Lion King - 540.0
 1.5 - Good Boys - 79.5
 1.5 - Angel has Fallen - 67.0
 1.0 - Overcomer - 33.0
 1.0 - Hobbs & Shaw - 172.0
 0.7 - Dora the Explorer - 59.5
 0.6 - Scary Stories - 66.7
 0.4 - Angry Birds - 41.2
 0.5 - ...Hollywood - 138.9
 0.3 - Spider-Man - 390.2
 0.1 - Ready or Not - 28.4
 0.1 - 47 Meters Down - 21.9

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24 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Any updates?

If you mean from the Trades and/or Atom/Fandango, as far as I know, no.  Just scanned various Twitter feeds and didn't see anything.  Maybe something will be posted later today though.

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14 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Nah there’s no way any movie in the foreseeable future is gonna get close. Only 5 movies have broken 85M, and they were: Endgame, TFA, IW, TLJ, and Deathly Hallows Part 2. And only 4 with 100M+, Avengers and Star Wars movies. TRoS is the only movie that actually has a shot of joining that list for a while. And there’s definitely no movie that will reach Endgame levels of hype for a very long time, much less even get close to 200M.

Some movie will do 200 in one day. Joker won't sniff 50 imo. Feel like I'm pretty bullish with a 105 OW. Maybe that's conservative but I don't see how

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JOKER - NYC Local MON (9/23) (10am)   Tues (9/24) (4pm)  
         
(RPX) 4:30PM 10/320   15/320  
(RPX) 7:30PM 14/320   41/320  
(RPX) 10:30PM 16/320   16/320  
         
(2D) 4:PM 14/301   17/301  
(2D) 5:PM 8/301   8/301  
(2D) 7:PM 16/301   28/301  
(2D) 8:PM 8/301   20/301  
(2D) 10:PM 10/301   10/301  
(2D) 11:PM 8/301   17/301  
  104/2766 = 3.776%   172/2766 = 6.122%  
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I have no experience with Tuesday tickets for movies that are already released except for short looks at what Angel has Fallen is doing (which had great Tuesday jumps) so we'll see tomorrow if this was a bit helpful or not.

The Tuesday in my usual AMC theaters in NY, Texas and LA (Universal) looked like that at 10am:
Rambo was for the first time in front with 394 sold tickets (on Sunday for Sunday: 279, I don't remember its Friday number but I think it was also lower). Rambo 4 to my surprise lost again 11.5% compared to its first Monday so this movie can only win.
Ad Astra had 352 sold tickets (not bad either but its Sunday number was 791. OTOH it had the bigger cinema halls in comparison and if it's not overcrowded maybe people just don't reserve seats).
I'm really curious how the actuals will turn out tomorrow. I take this rather as a mini-test for coming Tuesdays.

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Joker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24    
Dolby:    
4:00 PM 4 217
7:00 PM 52 217
10:00 PM 15 217
Prime:    
4:30 PM 4 187
7:30 PM 15 187
10:30 PM 0 187
2D:    
5:00 PM 3 158
5:30 PM 0 92
6:30 PM 3 94
8:00 PM 9 158
8:30 PM 4 92
9:30 PM 0 94
11:00 PM 0 158

 

AMC Highlands 24    
IMAX:    
4:30 PM 3 384
7:30 PM 5 384
10:30 PM 0 384
Dolby:    
4:00 PM 5 210
7:00 PM 31 210
10:00 PM 8 210
2D:    
5:15 PM 0 159
5:45 PM 0 159
6:15 PM 0 85
6:30 PM 0 85
7:15 PM 0 52
8:15 PM 0 159
8:45 PM 2 159
9:15 PM 0 85
9:30 PM 0 85
10:15 PM 2 52

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
355 355 14066 2.52% 8 79

Seems like a good start. Comps are worthless right now. One theater has yet to put up showings, and multiple theaters don't look like they've posted their full lineup yet. So, there's probably still a lot more to come. 

Also, are the lines on the charts not showing up for anyone? It was doing that for me yesterday, but magically appeared a couple hours after I posted.

Joker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

 

 

Dolby:

 

 

4:00 PM

9

217

7:00 PM

72

217

10:00 PM

16

217

Prime:

 

 

4:30 PM

4

187

7:30 PM

19

187

10:30 PM

4

187

2D:

 

 

5:00 PM

4

158

5:30 PM

0

92

6:30 PM

5

94

8:00 PM

12

158

8:30 PM

4

92

9:30 PM

0

94

11:00 PM

0

158

 

 

 

Total

149

2058

AMC Highlands 24

 

 

IMAX:

 

 

4:30 PM

4

384

7:30 PM

10

384

10:30 PM

0

384

Dolby:

 

 

4:00 PM

5

210

7:00 PM

49

210

10:00 PM

9

210

2D:

 

 

5:15 PM

0

159

5:45 PM

0

159

6:15 PM

2

85

6:30 PM

2

85

7:15 PM

0

52

8:15 PM

0

159

8:45 PM

2

159

9:15 PM

0

85

9:30 PM

0

85

10:15 PM

2

52

 

 

 

Total

85

2862

 

SEATS SOLD

SOLD TODAY

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

THEATERS

SHOWINGS

495

140

14616

3.39%

8

81

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 550

 

If you haven't already heard, Century Aurora XD will not be showing Joker. For IT 2, that theater sold almost 13% of the tickets out of the 9 theaters. So, it messes things up a bit. I won't be able to adjust for that theater until the last couple days because I only recently started saving individual theater counts. But I'll continue to do regular comps, and hopefully my other nearby theaters will pick up some of that loss. Just take them with a grain of salt. 

 

IT 2 comp: 5.13M

Adjusted Lion King comp: 5.82M

 

For TLK, I didn't track the Aurora theater at this point. So the comp is probably a better look at what it's looking like in Denver right now.

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15 hours ago, Porthos said:

True true, I was mostly commenting on CoolEric258's number, while throwing in some other observations.

 

But, really, the more I think about it, the more I kinda think Joker didn't do very well locally at all.  At Arden it sold 204 tickets.  At T-10, It 2 had sold 316 tickets.  That's fairly in line with CoolEric's It 2 T-10 comp (6.71m vs 7.22m).  

 

Problem is, everywhere else outside of a couple of other theaters, it didn't do well at all.  Blue Oaks, one of the other heavy hitters locally, only sold 73 tickets for Joker today.  By the time It 2 had hit T-10, it had sold 161 tickets.  That comps to 4.76m. 

 

Delta Shores (9.79m) was one of the few places to do really well, but at Joker's 55 versus It 2's 59, we're not talking many tickets.  Other "A" and "B" tier theaters also really underperformed (not gonna go through them all).

 

I ain't pressing a panic button.  Or really saying anything other than "Huh" and "curious".  Just have to see if this continues or not, is more or less what I am saying. I doubt it will.  But then again, I doubted Joker would open to this level of ticket sales locally, so there we are.

 

So is there a regional divide ? Is it doing comparatively better in suburban areas ?

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20 minutes ago, TLK said:

 

So is there a regional divide ? Is it doing comparatively better in suburban areas ?

Better in the urban areas, actually. Gets weaker the further one gets out from the city itself.  Skewed slightly as the strongest theater in town is inside the city.

 

I gots some thoughts on it, but I want to see some more data before comitting to some takes.  But it could just be that Sacto itself isn't that hot to trot for the movie. Only one day though, so still holding off on that though.

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Joker, Day 2, Salt Lake City, Cinemark Sugarhouse, 8 preview night screenings.

 

59/507  11.6%

 

Tickets sold today : 27

 

74% of Dark Phoenix Final

59% of Godzilla "

53% of John Wick  "

32% of Pika  "

29% of OUATIH "

16% of IT: Chapter 2 "

 

Okay day for Joker. Not terrible, not great, just... okay. I have no doubt that this will be WB's most profitable movie of 2019, but I'm not seeing a triple digit OW out of these numbers, at least yet. Hopefully it will pick up speed in the coming days.  On the plus side, the prime Friday night screenings are already about 50% sold.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Doctor Sleep tickets go on sale October 25.

 

 

I saw those Shining tickets pop up at my local theater a few days ago. I'm seriously considering going to see it again, though if I don't, it'll be because I just saw it on the big screen 2 or 3 years ago.

 

That said, Oct 25 does not seem like it's too far in advance, so, thumbs up I guess?

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Abominable Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 39 60 5,530 1.08%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 130

Total Seats Sold Today: 14

 

Comp

0.577x of Dora 2 days before release (721K)

2.222x of Racing in Rain 2 days before release (1M)

 

Outpacing Dora seems good here, although it's important to recognize that Dora started two hours earlier, so it's not a perfect comparison. But 20M+ is still likely, although anything above that seems like a stretch, which could arguably be slightly disappointing, but...eh, it could be worse?

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Joker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 88 780 18,455 4.23%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 9

Total Seats Added Today: 1,764

Total Seats Sold Today: 183

 

Comp

0.838x of It: Chapter Two 9 days before release (8.8M)

 

Adjusted Comp

2.802x of Hobbs & Shaw 9 days before release (16.25M)

 

Another really good day today. Obviously these boosts in the comp department do come from the shorter presales window, but interest is still clearly there. It'll be exciting to see what the next couple days entail

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Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 30 92 7,802 1.18%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 7

Total Seats Added Today: 1,727

Total Seats Sold Today: 11

 

This was a good day for Mal actually. It's the best day since day 33, the second day of pre-sales, which also sold 11 tickets. We'll see if this leads to some momentum in the future.

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