The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[cax16]

 

[TalismanRing]

4 showings added

JOKER - NYC Local	Mon (9/23) (10am)		Tues (9/24) (4pm)		Thur (9/25) (4pm)
(RPX) 4:30PM	10/320		15/320		15/320
(RPX) 7:30PM	14/320		41/320		53/320
(RPX) 10:30PM	16/320		16/320		20/320
(2D) 4:PM	14/301		17/301		17/301
(2D) 5:PM	8/301		8/301		8/301
(2D) 5:30PM					6/257
(2D) 7:PM	16/301		28/301		30/301
(2D) 8:PM	8/301		20/301		24/301
(2D) 8:30PM					6/257
(2D) 9:30PM					10/256
(2D) 10:PM	10/301		10/301		10/301
(2D) 11:PM	8/301		17/301		18/301
	104/2766 = 3.776%		172/2766 = 6.122%		217/3536 = 6.137%

 

Abominable - NYC Local	Thur (4:30pm)
(2D) 6:PM	13/255
(2D) 7:PM	14/256
(2D) 8:PM	9/218
(2D) 8:30PM	10/255
(2D) 9PM	12/256
(2D) 9:30PM	10/256
(2D) 10:PM	8/255
(2D) 11:PM	9/218
	73/1969 = 3.776%

[xiazhi]

4 hours ago, Manny G said:

$50M for Maleficent is the Industry overestimating Disney yet again. They’re so full of win that it’s too tempting not to do so. But just like like Dumbo or MPR then interest is just not there. 

Dumbo's BO didn't disappoint people. It's the production budget that surprised everyone. 

Edited September 26, 2019 by xiazhi

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Joker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24
Dolby:
4:00 PM	10	217
7:00 PM	89	217
10:00 PM	19	217
Prime:
4:30 PM	5	187
7:30 PM	24	187
10:30 PM	5	187
2D:
5:00 PM	4	158
5:30 PM	0	92
6:30 PM	5	94
8:00 PM	12	158
8:30 PM	4	92
9:30 PM	0	94
11:00 PM	0	158
Total	177	2058
AMC Highlands 24
IMAX:
4:30 PM	4	384
7:30 PM	10	384
10:30 PM	0	384
Dolby:
4:00 PM	11	210
7:00 PM	59	210
10:00 PM	10	210
2D:
5:15 PM	0	159
5:45 PM	0	159
6:15 PM	2	85
6:30 PM	2	85
7:15 PM	0	52
8:15 PM	0	159
8:45 PM	2	159
9:15 PM	0	85
9:30 PM	0	85
10:15 PM	2	52
Total	102	2862

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
598	103	14616	4.09%	8	81

 

IT 2 comp: 5.78M

Adjusted Lion King comp: 6.6M

Joker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24
Dolby:
4:00 PM	12	217
7:00 PM	89	217
10:00 PM	21	217
Prime:
4:30 PM	5	187
7:30 PM	28	187
10:30 PM	5	187
2D:
5:00 PM	3	158
5:30 PM	0	92
6:30 PM	5	94
8:00 PM	14	158
8:30 PM	4	92
9:30 PM	0	94
11:00 PM	0	158
Total	186	2058

 

AMC Highlands 24
IMAX:
4:30 PM	4	384
7:30 PM	11	384
10:30 PM	1	384
Dolby:
4:00 PM	13	210
7:00 PM	65	210
10:00 PM	10	210
2D:
5:15 PM	2	159
5:45 PM	0	159
6:15 PM	4	85
6:30 PM	2	85
7:15 PM	0	52
8:15 PM	0	159
8:45 PM	2	159
9:15 PM	0	85
9:30 PM	0	85
10:15 PM	2	52
Total	116	2862

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
677	79	14616	4.63%	8	81

 

IT 2 comp: 6.09M

Adjusted Lion King comp: 6.92M

 

Joker has now fallen behind IT 2 in day to day sales. However, IT 2 had Century Aurora, so Joker should be ahead when accounting for that. But it is close between them now.

[Eric Duncan]

Abominable Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	39	225	5,530	4.07%

Total Seats Sold Today: 148

 

Comp

1.108x of Dora's final count (1.38M)

2.616x of Racing in Rain's final count (1.18M)

 

At the last minute, this really rallied up some ticket sales. Dora started two hours earlier, so it's not a perfect comparison. However, Racing in Rain did start at 6. I don't want to predict that number just yet, but that would be a decent preview. Using 1.18M, if it followed House with a Clock in its Walls (started previews at 7 IIRC, so an hour off), it would result in 35.4M. Using Smallfoot (started previews at 4 IIRC, so not perfect), it would still get to 32M.

 

That doesn't mean 30M is locked, but if it manages to cross 1M in previews by a fair amount, it has a good shot.

[TLK]

I had Maleficent at $45-50 million OW. That corresponds to a 30-35% drop from the first movie which had decent reception and a good multiplier. I don't know why BOP had it dropping nearly 50%.

[Porthos]

28 minutes ago, TLK said:

I had Maleficent at $45-50 million OW. That corresponds to a 30-35% drop from the first movie which had decent reception and a good multiplier. I don't know why BOP had it dropping nearly 50%.

Quote

CONS:

• Arriving five years after the first film, there’s reason to wonder if some of the heat from its success has cooled off and left this sequel in a position to experience diminished returns. An early comp in this arena would be the six year gap between Alice In Wonderland and Alice Through the Looking Glass. The latter sequel dropped 77 percent from its blockbuster predecessor’s domestic total, and this year has similarly seen several family franchises (such as The LEGO Movie 2 and Secret Life of Pets 2) experience sharp drops from their first films.
   
• Competition from The Addams Family could be a factor if that animated title generates positive word of mouth among families starting one week before.
   
• With Columbus Day landing on the Monday before release, opening weekend won’t be able to take full advantage of a no-school Monday.

LEGO 2 and SLOP 2's shadows loom large, basically.

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

LEGO 2 and SLOP 2's shadows loom large, basically.

For me, SLOP2 falls that much because the first have one of the best marketing campaigns i’ve ever seems and the second didn’t. Also people enjoy the first movie but it seems like it doesn’t stick with the audiences.

 

Lego 2 could be huge, if they didn’t release 2 “spin off” movies before the sequel.

 

I don’t think Maleficent will have these problems, the first one is very well remembered (unlike Alice for exemple), and it didn’t have spin offs to split the audiences. It will drop compared to the first, but a SLOP/Lego drop seems extreme for me.

[Inceptionzq]

Abominable Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24
3D:
7:00 PM	13	56
9:45 PM	3	56
Prime:
6:00 PM	10	187
2D:
6:00 PM	13	92
8:45 PM	6	92
Total	45	483

 

AMC Highlands 24
3D:
7:00 PM	0	45
Dolby:
6:30 PM	12	210
2D:
6:00 PM	2	85
Total	14	340

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
233	170	5198	4.48%	9	40

 

Dora comp: 756K

Art of Racing in the Rain comp: 444K

Lion King comp: 706K

 

I'm inclined to believe the Dora and Lion King comp. Using the Smallfoot IM, it would have a range of 19-20.4M for the weekend. I'll just go with what TLK and Dora says, and go with 730K. Definitely not confident in that though.

 

Also, @Eric!, interesting how our final numbers are pretty similar, but our comps are so different. The difference for Dora is definitely because of the large Hispanic presence here, but I'm not sure about Art of Racing in the Rain.

[Cap]

Abominable

 

No Fancy charts today.  I was out with a client all evening (FINALLY might have found my persnickety client a builder, praise jesus Kevin Feige).

 

Abominable did not have previews at LS13.  It did at Cinemagic and sold 9 tickets, plus whatever it sold at the 6:30PM show that I missed because my client was on a tirade about the school superintendent. 9 Tickets is a 100% comp for Secret Lives of Pets at Cinemagic. 

[cax16]

New tracking info for preview night October 3rd- 27 theatres total( 5 not reporting yet) info below from 22 theatres 

 

Joker day 1 presales (5am on Tuesday)- 1275 tickets across all theatres.

 

Joker day 4 of presales (8:30pm Thursday) - 2609 tickets across all theatres. 

 

Will check again Saturday night.

[FlashMaster659]

Abominable Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [5:20pm - 5:45pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	632	13900	13268	4.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day: 240

 

Final Comps:

	Time	%		Sold Since Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Hustlers	6:00-6:40	30.46		609	2075		0/60	8683/10758	19.29%		762k
Downton Abbey	5:30-5:50	82.40		98	767		0/43	6522/7289	10.52%		1.73m
Ad Astra	5:50-6:10	80.00		183	790		0/37	7984/8774	9.00%		1.20m
Rambo: Last Blood	6:10-6:35	65.56		310	964		0/51	12050/13014	7.41%		852k

 

 

Final Adjusted Comps:

	Time	%		Sold T-0 Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
It: 2	3:30-6:30	6.95		n/a	9068		1/221	31775/40843	22.20%		737k
Abominable (It: 2 adj)	5:20-5:45	n/a		n/a	630		0/76	12658/13288	4.74%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Abominable (It: 2 adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had complete data for It: 2 at. I unfortunately missed the data at the Ontario Palace on It: 2's final report.

 

===

 

Pretty great walk-ups in the final stretch. Hard to say what the preview number will be since I don't have any really great comps for this one. But I'll go out on a limb with a $1.1M preview number guess +/-$100K.

[Nova]

Haven't done this in a while so I'm probably talking out of my ass but I have Joker around $80M for opening weekend. My only concern for it is that typically DC movies are a bit more front loaded and its currently behind Venom at my theater. Having said that, I think the Joker's OW will rely on the WOM throughout the weekend so if it is well received by audiences, I wouldn't be shocked if it has a better IM and does over $90M. 

[Old Spice]

Expanded Salt Lake City report for Joker preview night, day 4.

 

Sugarhouse Cinemark, 6 showtimes.

73/507 14.4%

Tickets sold today- 14

 

Okay, so it's not End Game, but after yesterday, we'll take what we can get.

 

91% of Dark Phoenix final

72% of Godzilla "

66% of John Wick "

39% of Pika "

36% of OUATIH "

20% of IT: Chapter 2 "

 

Also, beginning with this report, I'll be adding two more theaters to my survey in hopes of being able to gather a more accurate picture of the Salt Lake Valley as a whole. Sugarhouse will continue to be my benchmark. It's located on the east side of the valley, not far from the U of Utah, and is diverse (young, old, single, married, LDS/non-LDS) and politically liberal. West Jordan and Farmington are located to the SW and North of SLC, respectively, and are both fast-growing predominately LDS communities that tend to over-index on family films and are politically conservative. My plan is to track just the PLF screens here, since those haven't been represented at all in my previous reports. I'll use Sugarhouse for comps until the end of the year when hopefully I'll have enough data to start integrating the other two. But for now, here's how the newbies stack up:

 

West Jordan (three showtimes, PLF only) 38/645

Farmington (three showtimes, PLF only) 26/438

 

Total 64/1083 5.9%

 

 

 

 

Edited September 27, 2019 by A Star is Orm
typo

[Tinalera]

On 9/25/2019 at 9:38 PM, cax16 said:

I think this is the best thing I can do for comps atm, This is @Tinalera data from IT2 the day before previews.  The numbers below are from joker after 3 days of Presales so far, using only the same theatres. Total tickets only as joker has more showtimes at certain theatres and IT2 had more at others. 

 

Scotiabank theatre

 

444 total tickets sold so far 

 

 

Don mills VIP

 

64 total tickets sold so far 

 

 

Yorkdale 

 

57 total tickets sold 

 

 

Eglinton town

 

31 total tickets sold 

 

 

Yonge and Eglinton

 

145 total tickets sold 

 

 

Queensway

 

220 total tickets sold 

 

 

Yonge and Dundas 

 

203 total tickets sold 

 

 

 

1164 total tickets sold so far.

 

 

 

Now, Scotiabank theatre is one of our big ones downtown so the fact that it didn’t have any times for IT2 is very strange. I suspect that that’s the reason presales were so big at the Yonge and Dundas location cause Scotiabank didn’t have the presales up, but even if we were to add in let’s say 500 tickets for Scotiabank for IT2 that would only take the total to 1411 total tickets the day before previews. I think Scotiabank would be a bit higher but I don’t want to go much more as I think Yonge and Dundas was inflated due to the other theatre not having tickets on sale. 

 

I don’t know what any of this means but I figured it would be fun to just look and compare.

 

[DAJK]

Theatres in my area didn't do Thursday previews for Abominable, sorry I wasn't able to provide data this week @captainwondyful

[Tinalera]

I e

[Cap]

7 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Theatres in my area didn't do Thursday previews for Abominable, sorry I wasn't able to provide data this week @captainwondyful

it happens!

[Tinalera]

I feel so missed seeing the above post (i cant quote ). Ive been gone awhile real life stuff itsnice to see my work referenced! Thank you! Think ill be getting joker numbers over weekend now that i have some time to spend on the boards. Be nice to catch up. Thank you @cax16 !

Edited September 27, 2019 by Tinalera

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Theatres in my area didn't do Thursday previews for Abominable, sorry I wasn't able to provide data this week @captainwondyful

Every comp points clearly to a $0 Thursday, which gives a $0 OW. Sad news