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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Eric Atreides Global Phenomenon

Eric Atreides

Posted
Posted

Joker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 93 1,076 18,925 5.69%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 5

Total Seats Added Today: 470

Total Seats Sold Today: 170

 

Comp

1.023x of It: Chapter Two 7 days before release (10.74M)

 

Adjusted Comp

3.336x of Hobbs & Shaw 7 days before release (19.35M)

 

It rises yet again. 10M+ previews are looking like more of a reality. Though if 100M+ is possible is still up in the air

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Eric Atreides Global Phenomenon

Eric Atreides

Posted
Posted

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 30 97 7,802 1.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2

 

Comp

0.165x of It: Chapter Two 21 days before release (1.73M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.000x of Hobbs & Shaw 21 days before release (5.8M)

 

I decided to throw in some lolcomps because the homie @Porthos compared sales to these movies earlier today, and I wanted to do some comparisons here.

 

In actuality that Hobbs & Shaw number isn't that off from what the movie could potentially do, albeit more of an overperformance. Assuming about a 12x for the weekend, that would give us about 69.6M. It2 on the other hand...yeah that would give us 20.8M.

 

I guess what this really means is that Sacto might be overperforming. But really, it's still far enough away that anything can happen.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

3rd Day PS for Joker. Still quite good. Way higher than T-4 for IT2.

 

New York

  Reveal hidden contents

 

SF

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Day 4. Joker has slowed down further selling 98 tickets since last update. Overall number still is good.

 

Spoiler

AMC Empire 25
Imax:      49/303(430PM),     229/303(730PM),      78/303(1030PM)Total 356/909
Dolby:     114/225(400PM),     206/225(700PM),     119/225(1000PM)Total 439/675
Prime:      75/180(500PM),     133/180(800PM),      45/180(1100PM)Total 253/540
2D:       3/122(A10 410PM),       3/377(A13 415PM),       4/121(A15 420PM),       0/99(A11 440PM),       4/158(A6 450PM),       5/146(A7 510PM),
       2/145(A25 520PM),       5/309(A14 530PM),      15/144(A20 540PM),       6/134(A5 550PM),       9/309(A9 6PM),       8/121(A21 610PM),
       4/126(A3 620PM),      19/262(A17 630PM),      13/99(A16 640PM),      18/142(A19 650PM),       8/122(A10 710PM),      19/377(A13 715PM),
      13/121(A15 720PM),      11/99(A11 740PM),       5/158(A6 750PM),       8/146(A7 810PM),      10/145(A25 820PM),      23/309(A14 830PM),
       8/144(A20 840PM),       6/134(A5 850PM),       4/309(A9 9PM),       2/121(A21 910PM),       4/126(A3 920PM),      17/262(A17 930PM),
       8/99(A16 940PM),      16/142(A19 950PM),       3/122(A10 1010PM),       3/377(A13 1015PM),       2/121(A15 1020PM)
       0/99(A11 1040PM),       4/158(A6 1050PM),       2/146(A7 1110PM),       2/145(A25 1120PM),       1/309(A14 1020PM)
      10/144(A20 1140PM),       6/134(A5 1150PM),       0/309(A9 12AM)  Total 313/7692

Overall 1361/9816  (+98)


AMC 34th St
Imax:276
Dolby:240
2d:131
Overall:647 (+50)

 

AMC Newport Center 11
Total Tickets sold:     345

 

AMC Kips Bay 15
Total Tickets sold:     380 (+39)


AMC 19th St East
Total Tickets sold:     177 (+21)

 

AMC Magic Johnson Harlem 9
Dolby:     110
2D:      14
Total:124 (New)

 

SF. Good increases for the day. Prime time Dolby shows and Imax at Metreon(2nd largest Imax Screen in the country) are very strong

Spoiler

AMC Metreon 16
Dolby:     328
Imax:     382
2D:      90
Total Tickets sold:800 (+67)


AMC Bay Street SF
Imax:      90
Dolby:     246
2D:      25
Total Tickets Sold:361 (+44)

 

AMC Saratoga 14 Joker
Imax:      55
Dolby:     149
2D:      14
Total Tickets Sold:218 (+29)

 

AMC Mercado 20
Dolby:     304 (+23)

 

 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

Joker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

199

23177

24361

1184

4.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

169

 

T-7 Comps (somewhat lol at this stage - don't take very seriously)

 

   %

 

Sold T-7

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

It 2

76.49

 

104

1548

 

0/165

18415/19963

7.75%

 

8.03m

PRE-SALES NOTE: It 2 had 36 days of pre-sales while joker had 11. 

 

T-7 Adjusted Comps (somewhat lol at this stage - don't take very seriously)

 

   %

 

Sold T-7

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

DP2

32.84

 

119

3334

 

0/121

10133/13467

24.76%

 

6.11m

Joker (adj)

n/a

 

149

1095

 

0/199

18514/19609

5.58%

 

n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Deadpool 2 had 30 days of pre-sales, while Joker had 11.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Joker (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Deadpool 2.

 

===

 

Nice jump in Sacramento today.  With the rate of growth against It 2 and DP2, now thinking double digit in previews is fairly likely.  See where it stands tomorrow and in the weekend.

 

(And, yes, I nuked the "Day of" comp against Captain Marvel, as Joker came a bit short of tripling it in Day Four sales [169 vs 64], making the comp completely useless, IMO)

 

 

Edited by Porthos
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FlashMaster659 Box Office Gold

FlashMaster659

Posted
Posted (edited)

Joker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats Sold

Total Seats

Seats Left

% Sold

TOTALS

0

167

2685

39908

37223

6.73%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 4

Total Seats Added Today: 550

Total Seats Sold Today: 284

 

===

 

An uptick from the amount of seats sold yesterday. Perhaps a sign that its ramp-up is beginning? By the way, if I were to comp today's total number to It 2's T-5 number (the first day I tracked it for the Inland Empire), I get an $8.5M preview number for Joker, things seem to be looking pretty good here.

Edited by FlashMaster659
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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

Posted
Posted

Tracking Thread Estimates

Tracker Cap Eric! FlashMaster659 Inceptionzq
Group Average
Region SMCM Philadelphia Inland Empire Denver
Abominable 1.31 1.28 1.1 0.73 1.105
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Krissykins Global Phenomenon

Krissykins

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, captainwondyful said:

Tracking Thread Estimates

Tracker Cap Eric! FlashMaster659 Inceptionzq
Group Average
Region SMCM Philadelphia Inland Empire Denver
Abominable 1.31 1.28 1.1 0.73 1.105

Thanks for this.
 

Next week is going to be wild! 😂

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I think the previews number could be really good, feels like a front loaded type situation. Question is the what the multiplier look like?

Logan did $9.5m with a 9.3 internal w/e multi - R rated and a far better than usual multi for X-Men.   A 4pm start though would have most likely pushed that into the mid 7s range

 

Movies featuring Batman and/or Joker are more front loaded than other DC films

 

Spoiler

 

JL: 7.2  x $13m (6pm)

SS: 6.5 x $20.5m (8pm)

BvS: 6.0 x   $27.7m previews (7pm,  Good Friday)

TDKR: 5.3 x $30.6m (midnights)

TDK:  8.6 x $18.5m (midnights)

 

 

Maybe around the 7.1x that OUATIH got with the Tarantino fan rush. 


 

 

 

 

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efialtes76 Summer Tentpole

efialtes76

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, captainwondyful said:

Tracking Thread Estimates

Tracker Cap Eric! FlashMaster659 Inceptionzq
Group Average
Region SMCM Philadelphia Inland Empire Denver
Abominable 1.31 1.28 1.1 0.73 1.105

0.65M...

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Abominable Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24    
3D:    
7:00 PM 13 56
9:45 PM 3 56
Prime:    
6:00 PM 10 187
2D:    
6:00 PM 13 92
8:45 PM 6 92
     
Total 45 483

 

AMC Highlands 24    
3D:    
7:00 PM 0 45
Dolby:    
6:30 PM 12 210
2D:    
6:00 PM 2 85
     
Total 14 340

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
233 170 5198 4.48% 9 40

 

Dora comp: 756K

Art of Racing in the Rain comp: 444K

Lion King comp: 706K

 

I'm inclined to believe the Dora and Lion King comp. Using the Smallfoot IM, it would have a range of 19-20.4M for the weekend. I'll just go with what TLK and Dora says, and go with 730K. Definitely not confident in that though.

 

Also, @Eric!, interesting how our final numbers are pretty similar, but our comps are so different. The difference for Dora is definitely because of the large Hispanic presence here, but I'm not sure about Art of Racing in the Rain.

Best call this week:)...

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Justin4125 Indie Sensation

Justin4125

Posted
Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

TDKR's multiplier looks abnormally low. Was it because of the Aurora shooting? Also, I think the release date could help the movie reach a 8x opening. Venom reached an 8x multi with a 5pm start.

At least 8x I agree, even though its a beloved character we've seen before, I have a hard time seeing it play out like a sequel multi-wise

 

WB did contend that the shooting had an impact in general, but they gave multiple reasons why it didnt reach Dark Knight numbers (I would argue no argument was needed, following up one of the most defining films of our generation would be a tall order regardless). Even if the shooting had a big effect, at the end of the day it played out like a typical massive blockbuster sequel to a massive breakout. Other fan rush films had even lower multis. HP8 a year before opened 4x from midnights (43m to 169m)

Edited by Justin4125
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Eric Atreides Global Phenomenon

Eric Atreides

Posted
Posted (edited)

It's really not crazy to say Aurora impacted TDKR, especially after years of evidence from other CBMs. Dark Knight Rises' midnights to Friday ratio (30M to 75.7M) is about 2.472x, which for a CBM is one of, if not the lowest ever, especially for a movie as big as this, and coming out before Thursday previews were a common thing. Even something like Avengers: Endgame did 2.624x, and that was just as, if not more anticipated and was as big of a finale as TDKR.

 

And sure, even if you want to argue DC films are more frontloaded, even films as despised/frontloaded as Justice League and BvS still cleared 2.9x for their preview to Friday. Sure, TDKR's IM wouldn't be crazy high if everything went right, but it's a little silly to say Aurora didn't impact the movie's performance even a little bit.

Edited by Eric!
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