The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Firepower]

10 minutes ago, Eric! said:

It's really not crazy to say Aurora impacted TDKR, especially after years of evidence from other CBMs. Dark Knight Rises' midnights to Friday ratio (30M to 75.7M) is about 2.472x, which for a CBM is one of, if not the lowest ever, especially for a movie as big as this, and coming out before Thursday previews were a common thing. Even something like Avengers: Endgame did 2.624x, and that was just as, if not more anticipated and was as big of a finale as TDKR.

 

And sure, even if you want to argue DC films are more frontloaded, even films as despised/frontloaded as Justice League and BvS still cleared 2.9x for their preview to Friday. Sure, TDKR's IM wouldn't be crazy high if everything went right, but it's a little silly to say Aurora didn't impact the movie's performance even a little bit.

I didn't say it didn't impact it a little bit, l meant it didn't impact it in significant way, like it didn't lose 50 mln in its opening weekend because of Aurora.

[Menor the Destroyer]

As of this morning:

 

Joker Thursday: 

Theaters: 259 (+1)

Showings: 3285 (+31)

Tickets Sold: 21746 (+3650)

Estimated ATP: 12.82

Estimated Sales: 278883 (+46377)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 2.4 million

 

Decent enough clip for now, as long as it accelerates from here. (sidenote: I am apparently missing TLK comps for this specific day, will restart that comp (for whatever it's worth) tomorrow)

 

Joker Friday: 

Theaters: 258 (+1)

Showings: 2849 (+60)

Tickets Sold: 16560 (+3287)

Estimated ATP: 12.24

Estimated Sales: 202725 (+40500)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 1.7 million

 

This is still concerning to me, and seems to indicate potential frontloading. It's a bit unusual to see the pace of Thursday sales still exceeding that of Friday, especially with the Thursday sales already significantly higher. 

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-frozen-ii-a-beautiful-day-in-the-neighborhood-and-21-bridges/

11/22/2019

Frozen 2

$115,000,000 – $145,000,000

$125,000,000

NEW

$455,000,000

NEW

Disney

 

[Porthos]

44 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-frozen-ii-a-beautiful-day-in-the-neighborhood-and-21-bridges/

11/22/2019

Frozen 2

$115,000,000 – $145,000,000

$125,000,000

NEW

$455,000,000

NEW

Disney

 

@captainwondyful's reaction to Shawn when she sees the forecasted OW:

 

[Legion Again]

OW is +11% the initial BOP numbers for TS4, and +14% I2.   

 

DOM finish +17% from TS4 and +15% from I2.     

 

+16% OW and +17% finish from first Dory numbers.

 

That’s not to say it’ll hit 700M or anything, just this is hardly the first Disney animated blockbuster where BOP started a bit conservative. 

[keysersoze123]

33 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

OW is +11% the initial BOP numbers for TS4, and +14% I2.   

 

DOM finish +17% from TS4 and +15% from I2.     

 

+16% OW and +17% finish from first Dory numbers.

 

That’s not to say it’ll hit 700M or anything, just this is hardly the first Disney animated blockbuster where BOP started a bit conservative. 

They overestimated Wreck it Ralph 2 big time last year. so may be they are "conservative". But i am not sure a 455m prediction can be called conservative.

 

Edit: I am wrong about Ralph 2. They were on the spot with final number but OW was underestimated. Still I stand with 455m as not conservative.

Edited September 27, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Cap]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

@captainwondyful's reaction to Shawn when she sees the forecasted OW:

 

What the fuck @ Shawn. Why you gotta do me like that?

 

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, Eric! said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-frozen-ii-a-beautiful-day-in-the-neighborhood-and-21-bridges/

 

8-Week Forecast

10/18/2019

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

$40,000,000 – $55,000,000

$40,000,000

8%

$120,000,000

9%

Disney

 

Continuing from the discussion about Maleficent 2 from yesterday, I see Shawn and co have upped their forecast. Pretty in line with Deadline's tracking report from yesterday, if still a bit under it.

 

Edited September 27, 2019 by Porthos
Nope. First bump they've given it, I think

[Tinalera]

 

Joker thursday oct 3 Toronto Ontario Canada

 

Yonge Dundas

VIP
400 2/60
500 9/77
700 27/60
800 4/77
1000 15/60 
1040 8/77

 

AVX
430 1/386
730 27/386
1030 4/386
IMAX
400 32/356
700 108/356
1045 45/356

Scotia place
 

IMAX
430 43/416
730 237/416
1030 81/416

Regular
400 15/195
500 61/391
530 6/390
700 34/195
800 18/391
830 10/390
900 7/140
1000 80/558
1040 0/318

 

Yonge eglington
VIP
600 8/70
700 67/95
900 23/70
1000 23/95

AVX
430 4/379
730 24/379
1030 14/379

 

Eglington town
IMAX
400 6/335
700 28/335
1030 9/335

Regular
430
4/305
730 7/305
1030 0/305

 

Don Mills
VIP
500 5/115
730 35/115
830 35/115
1030 22/115

 

Yorkdale
AVX
400 2/382
700 42/382
1000 3/382

Regular
430 3/451
530 1/200
730 7/ 451
830 11/200
1030 7/451

 

Queensway
VIP
400 3/136
445 1/124
600 12/109
700 47/136
800 63/124
915 12/109
1010 27/136

AVX
400 4/417
700 7/417
1000 46/417

1587/15724
 

Just over 10 percent sales mark

Here is fridays count. Seems to be selling well. It will take following to see any movement. Hard to tell exactly how numbers go. Im very interested to see how movie does given the media attention.

 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Joker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24
Dolby:
4:00 PM	12	217
7:00 PM	89	217
10:00 PM	21	217
Prime:
4:30 PM	5	187
7:30 PM	28	187
10:30 PM	5	187
2D:
5:00 PM	3	158
5:30 PM	0	92
6:30 PM	5	94
8:00 PM	14	158
8:30 PM	4	92
9:30 PM	0	94
11:00 PM	0	158
Total	186	2058

 

AMC Highlands 24
IMAX:
4:30 PM	4	384
7:30 PM	11	384
10:30 PM	1	384
Dolby:
4:00 PM	13	210
7:00 PM	65	210
10:00 PM	10	210
2D:
5:15 PM	2	159
5:45 PM	0	159
6:15 PM	4	85
6:30 PM	2	85
7:15 PM	0	52
8:15 PM	0	159
8:45 PM	2	159
9:15 PM	0	85
9:30 PM	0	85
10:15 PM	2	52
Total	116	2862

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
677	79	14616	4.63%	8	81

 

IT 2 comp: 6.09M

Adjusted Lion King comp: 6.92M

 

Joker has now fallen behind IT 2 in day to day sales. However, IT 2 had Century Aurora, so Joker should be ahead when accounting for that. But it is close between them now.

Joker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24
Dolby:
4:00 PM	14	217
7:00 PM	92	217
10:00 PM	31	217
Prime:
4:30 PM	5	187
7:30 PM	34	187
10:30 PM	7	187
2D:
5:00 PM	3	158
5:30 PM	0	92
6:30 PM	7	94
8:00 PM	14	158
8:30 PM	4	92
9:30 PM	0	94
11:00 PM	0	158
Total	211	2058

 

AMC Highlands 24
IMAX:
4:30 PM	4	384
7:30 PM	15	384
10:30 PM	1	384
Dolby:
4:00 PM	14	210
7:00 PM	68	210
10:00 PM	12	210
2D:
5:15 PM	2	159
5:45 PM	0	159
6:15 PM	4	85
6:30 PM	2	85
7:15 PM	0	52
8:15 PM	0	159
8:45 PM	2	159
9:15 PM	0	85
9:30 PM	0	85
10:15 PM	2	52
Total	126	2862

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
754	77	14616	5.16%	8	81

 

IT 2 comp: 6.31M

Lion King comp: 6.16M

 

At this point, I had all 9 theaters for TLK. So, start taking that comp with a slight grain of salt for now. But anyways, ticket sales are flat from yesterday as you can see. It's still behind IT 2's pace, but not by much. The gap is growing though. With Aurora, I don't know whether Joker would be ahead or not. But to tie with IT by Thursday, Joker needs to really pick it up. Accounting for Aurora, Joker needs to outsell IT by exactly 500 by Thursday. The chances seem pretty slim.

[cax16]

Didn’t think I’d have time today but I got in a bit early.

 

 Since this is the first time I’ve tracked like this I can’t really say how good or bad it’s doing but I guess it seems to be selling reasonably well daily so far. At least I’ll have this info going forward for comparisons. 

 

 

New tracking info - 27 theatres total( 5 not reporting yet) info below from 22 theatres 

 

Joker day 1 presales (5am on Tuesday)- 1275 tickets across all theatres.

 

Joker day 4 of presales (8:30pm Thursday) - 2609 tickets across all theatres. 

 

Joker day 5 of presales (8:15pm Friday) - 3183 tickets across all theatres.

Edited September 28, 2019 by cax16

[TLK]

Aurora shooting had a big impact on TDKR's opening weekend. The movie was trending for over $180 million weekend but the Friday kept trending down after the shootings. Check the thread for its opening weekend if it is still available.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, TLK said:

Aurora shooting had a big impact on TDKR's opening weekend. The movie was trending for over $180 million weekend but the Friday kept trending down after the shootings. Check the thread for its opening weekend if it is still available.

Even with a $180m w/e it's internal multi would have been below 6 at 5.88

[DAJK]

Maybe not the thread for an entire discussion on this, but does it seem to anyone else that a shooting in a movie theatre today would be less of a shock than it was in 2012? I mean, obviously it would be big and terrible news, but like school shootings happening so frequently now, that it doesn't become "all the entire country talks about for a whole week" anymore. 

Like, I feel that if there was a similar shooting in a movie in the future, that it would not have the same impact on that movie's box office as TDKR. 

[PenguinHyphy]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Maybe not the thread for an entire discussion on this, but does it seem to anyone else that a shooting in a movie theatre today would be less of a shock than it was in 2012? I mean, obviously it would be big and terrible news, but like school shootings happening so frequently now, that it doesn't become "all the entire country talks about for a whole week" anymore. 

Like, I feel that if there was a similar shooting in a movie in the future, that it would not have the same impact on that movie's box office as TDKR. 

Possibly it appears that way to you because you are not in America? 

[cdsacken]

8 hours ago, Firepower said:

I didn't say it didn't impact it a little bit, l meant it didn't impact it in significant way, like it didn't lose 50 mln in its opening weekend because of Aurora.

Heck even if it lost 100m globally because of it, doesn't change much.

[Barnack]

38 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Maybe not the thread for an entire discussion on this, but does it seem to anyone else that a shooting in a movie theatre today would be less of a shock than it was in 2012

 

38 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Like, I feel that if there was a similar shooting in a movie in the future, that it would not have the same impact on that movie's box office as TDKR. 

 

Depend could be worst, because the possibility of multiple shooter would feel bigger than TKDR because of how much it was "predicted" as a possible phenomenon, i.e. now and in this case it would even be possible for theater chain to pause and cancel screening for a while, 

Edited September 28, 2019 by Barnack

[Cap]

57 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Maybe not the thread for an entire discussion on this,

Gun Control Thread and And Another Mass Shooting Thread are the places for this discussion.  

[Old Spice]

Salt Lake Valley report for Joker, Day 5.

 

SLC Sugarhouse Cinemark, 8 screens, (two added from yesterday with 124 additional seats.)

84/631 13.3%

Tickets sold today- 11

 

105% of Dark Phoenix final

84% of Godzilla "

76% of John Wick "

45% of Pika "

41% of OUATIH "

23% of IT: Chapter 2 "

 

Greater Salt Lake

West Jordan Cinemark, PLF only, 3 showtimes 44/645

Farmington Cinemark, PLF only, 3 showtimes 33/438

77/1083 7.1%

Tickets sold today- 13

 

Again, another decent day, but still waiting for that breakout. Hopefully it will start ramping up this weekend.

[excel1]

TDKR was heading towards an opening day around 95m and opening weekend total of ~$190m - which would have been the admissions record until DA FORCE AWAKENS barely topped it