The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[NamakFiskKa]

44 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Made it all the way to Sunday of release week before someone pulled out the Walkups Card.

Mid Jan Oscar buzz walkups.

 

Beat that.

[narniadis]

6 minutes ago, Firepower said:

I feel like Joker has a lot of advantages to be less front-loaded than your typical cbms and especially their sequels.

Less frontloaded is incredibly relative though. Opening weekend not being as frontloaded as most CBMs, possible of course, but overall - especially with the sheer number of films on the schedule in November it will be very very fortunate to hit 3x which without being a December film is high end for CBMs. The higher it opens the harder it will be to let go of the DC legs problem. 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, NamakFiskKa said:

Mid Jan Oscar buzz walkups.

 

Beat that.

Meh.  People have pulled the Oscars Walkups card for other movies, even before they released.  Nice try though. 👍

Edited September 29, 2019 by Porthos

[AnDr3s]

joker can have good legs after all is a award contender movie

[Firepower]

20 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Less frontloaded is incredibly relative though. Opening weekend not being as frontloaded as most CBMs, possible of course, but overall - especially with the sheer number of films on the schedule in November it will be very very fortunate to hit 3x which without being a December film is high end for CBMs. The higher it opens the harder it will be to let go of the DC legs problem. 

I meant weekend multiplier. About legs we just have to wait and see.

[The Chad DC]

On 9/28/2019 at 9:51 AM, The Chad DC said:

This (JOKER) is selling well in the Greater Vancouver Area:

 

Scotiabank Theatre Vancouver:

AVX - Thursday is at 255/2139, 12%. Friday (222/1286), 17%.

 

Regular - Thursday (9/775), 1.2%, these showings were added really late. There is none still for Friday.

 

Cineplex Strawberry Hill:

 

AVX - Thursday (36/648), 6%. Friday (66/846), 8%.

 

Regular - Thursday (6/750), 0.8%. Again added late.

 

Cineplex Metropolis:

 

AVX - T (70/1103), 6%. F (96/1468), 6.5%.

Regular - T (32/1322), 2.4%.

 

Landmark New Westminster:

 

Regular - T (18/120, 46/92, /120, 19/90, 23/78, 17/73, 20/104, 8/120, 3/78= 212/875, 24%) F (11/104, 11/120, 6/92 ~ early showings, 17/120, 50/93, 80/120, 55/92, 35/120 = 265/861, 31%).

 

Some context on these numbers:

 

The first three theatres are owned by cineplex. These showings have majority of movie watchers (like 60%) book tickets on the day of the showing. Landmark usually has most people book early because they sell fast. For instance, Cineplex Strawberry hill has a Landmark nearby and that is sold at around 20%.

 

Scotiabank Theatre Vancouver:

AVX - Thursday is at 287/2139, 13%. Friday (284/1286), 22%.

 

Regular - Thursday (16/775), 2.2%, these showings were added really late. There is none still for Friday.

 

Cineplex Strawberry Hill:

 

AVX - Thursday (43/648), 7%. Friday (95/846), 11%.

 

Regular - Thursday (12/750), 1.6%. Again added late.

 

Cineplex Metropolis:

 

AVX - T (77/1103), 7%. F (113/1468), 7.7%.

Regular - T (38/1322), 2.9%.

 

Landmark New Westminster:

 

Regular - T (19/120, 51/92, 60/120, 19/90, 23/78, 19/73, 20/104, 13/120, 3/78= 227/875, 26%) F (13/104, 11/120, 12/92 ~ early showings, 17/120, 57/93, 94/120, 55/92, 45/120 = 304/861, 35%).

 

Some context on these numbers:

 

The first three theatres are owned by cineplex. These showings have majority of movie watchers (like 60%) book tickets on the day of the showing. Landmark usually has most people book early because they sell fast. For instance, Cineplex Strawberry hill has a Landmark nearby and that is sold at around 25%.

[The Chad DC]

Side note: I think the second and third weeks will be strong. People who fear a shooting may elect to go on the second or third week for safety reasons.

[TMP]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Meh.  People have pulled the Oscars Walkups card for other movies, even before they released.  Nice try though. 👍

Oscar Walkups for OUATIH to $500m worldwide

[Justin4125]

2 hours ago, NamakFiskKa said:

Mid Jan Oscar buzz walkups.

 

Beat that.

I know you're joking, but its conceivable they do a TDK style expansion in late Jan. That added low single digit millions (from 531M (earning sub 10k weekends prior) to mid 533M, not the 2012 re-release which pushed it to 535M). If Phoenix actually takes home best actor that might be worth a bit more who knows, but given the hype surrounding the film, I have a really hard time seeing this play out like other awards buzz films who were notoriously backloaded and released closer to awards season

[Old Spice]

2 hours ago, narniadis said:

Less frontloaded is incredibly relative though. Opening weekend not being as frontloaded as most CBMs, possible of course, but overall - especially with the sheer number of films on the schedule in November it will be very very fortunate to hit 3x which without being a December film is high end for CBMs. The higher it opens the harder it will be to let go of the DC legs problem. 

I don't think there's a "DC legs problem"... hard to make that case when WW had a 4.0 and Aquaman a 4.9... it's been more of a "really erratic level of quality" problem. MOS, BvS, SS, and JL averaged a 2.3; WW, AQ, and Shazam almost a 3.9. (And I think most would agree that Shazam's legs, which were a decent 2.6, would have been stronger had it not been placed right between the one-two punch of CM and EG.) It's all about making a good film, and it seems like the new leadership knows how to do that. Even so, I think Joker's run may be somewhat limited just due to the fact that it appears to draw from a passionate but not-very-wide demo. The art crowd isn't going to be lining up for this no many how many Festival honors it grabs, and it's hard to get super-leggy when you're also striking out on families. But I haven't seen it yet, so maybe I'm underestimating it. After everything I've read though, it's definitely the one I'm most curious to see out of 2019's remaining releases.

[narniadis]

52 minutes ago, A Star is Orm said:

I don't think there's a "DC legs problem"... hard to make that case when WW had a 4.0 and Aquaman a 4.9... it's been more of a "really erratic level of quality" problem. MOS, BvS, SS, and JL averaged a 2.3; WW, AQ, and Shazam almost a 3.9. (And I think most would agree that Shazam's legs, which were a decent 2.6, would have been stronger had it not been placed right between the one-two punch of CM and EG.) It's all about making a good film, and it seems like the new leadership knows how to do that. Even so, I think Joker's run may be somewhat limited just due to the fact that it appears to draw from a passionate but not-very-wide demo. The art crowd isn't going to be lining up for this no many how many Festival honors it grabs, and it's hard to get super-leggy when you're also striking out on families. But I haven't seen it yet, so maybe I'm underestimating it. After everything I've read though, it's definitely the one I'm most curious to see out of 2019's remaining releases.

As noted in my original post, Aquaman was a December film so its not a fair comparison. Wonder Woman has legs and a reduced ow definitely due to the erratic quality issues. Its always telling if the exceptions are what people look at to make a call instead of the norm. 

[MrGlass2]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

As noted in my original post, Aquaman was a December film so its not a fair comparison. Wonder Woman has legs and a reduced ow definitely due to the erratic quality issues. Its always telling if the exceptions are what people look at to make a call instead of the norm. 

Wonder Woman, Aquaman, Shazam are all exceptions? Since SS and even JL had normal/fine legs, it looks like you're the one looking at a three-year-old exception to argue DC movies have a special leg problem.

[Justin4125]

16 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Wonder Woman, Aquaman, Shazam are all exceptions? Since SS and even JL had normal/fine legs, it looks like you're the one looking at a three-year-old exception to argue DC movies have a special leg problem.

Aquaman is without a doubt an exception. Bumblebee, Spiderverse (despite a more frontloaded release date before the holiday kickoff) and MPR all outlegged it, hell Jumanji even pulled a 10x the year before. So yes, that 4.9x multiplier means nothing comps wise, its the only Xmas CBM release of its kind.

Shazam had normal legs (though its opening was so low I would say thats an exception on its own in the DC universe) and WW, well WW had fantastic legs no two ways around it. So sure, WW and Shazam had amazing to normal legs. I dont think you can discount every other DCEU movie though, it'll take a win or two more before we can forget about DC's previous multipliers.

I think, though, it speaks more to the proportionately higher fan rush component to DC movies. Prior to WW, DC films (Nolan trilogy included) had notoriously poor OW internal multipliers. There's an article about it I can attach, about how Marvel had more backloaded OWs since they played to a broader audience (another way of putting it is a comparatively lower fan rush component). That has obviously started to change for Marvel

EDIT: Also I wouldnt call Suicide Squad's 2.43X multiplier in August normal legs, its one of the most backloaded months. Then again, given the hype for the film and resulting fan rush (as well as poor reviews) I certainly wouldnt call them terrible legs either all things considered

Edited September 29, 2019 by Justin4125

[MrGlass2]

7 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

Jumanji even pulled a 10x the year before. So yes, that 4.9x multiplier means nothing comps wise

You want to ignore Aquaman but are using Jumanji, a true WOM/leg phenomenon to make your point? Anyway it is very hard to argue that Aquaman had bad legs, even for a December movie - which was the claim.

[RealLyre]

from what I'm hearing it seems like Joker isn't a crowdpleaser and will probably have a  so-so cinemascore so I'm not sure about legs yet, but I'll worry about that after Joker gets a good opening.

[Tinalera]

Joker thursday oct 3 Toronto Ontario Canada (taken sept 29)

 

Yonge Dundas

VIP
400 5/60
500 12/77
700 3460
800 34/77
1000 29/60 
1040 10/77

 

AVX
430 4/386
730 41/386
1030 12/386

 

IMAX
400 44/356
700 138/356
1045 58/356

Scotia place

 

IMAX
430 71/416
730 252/416
1030 84/416

Regular
400 15/195
500 61/391
530 16/390
700 44/195
800 29/391
830 18/390
900 7/140
1000 80/558
1040 0/318

 

Yonge eglington
VIP
600 27/70
700 67/95
900 36/70
1000 31/70

AVX
430 5/379
730 31/379
1030 14/379

Eglington town
IMAX
400 6/335
700 35/335
1030 12/335

Regular
430 4/305
730 13/305
1030 0/305

 

Don Mills
VIP
500 5/115
730 29/115
830 42/115
1030 22/115

Yorkdale
AVX
400 4/382
700 58/382
1000 7/382

Regular
430 3/451
530 1/200
730 10/ 451
830 15/200
1030 7/451

 

Queensway
VIP
400 3/136
445 1/124
600 17/109
700 53/136
800 74/124
915 24/109
1010 36/136

AVX
400 4/417
700 81/417
1000 55/417

Reg (new add)
400 0/247
700 20/247
1000 9/247

1792/16465

Just over 10 percent sales mark

Here is sundays count. Seems to be selling okay. Mostly singany digit increases.  Hard to tell exactly how numbers go. Toronto is generally alot of walkup i find except for tentpoles. Im very interested to see how movie does given the media attention. 

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 9/28/2019 at 4:39 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Joker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24
Dolby:
4:00 PM	21	217
7:00 PM	98	217
10:00 PM	37	217
Prime:
4:30 PM	6	187
7:30 PM	36	187
10:30 PM	8	187
2D:
5:00 PM	3	158
5:30 PM	0	92
6:30 PM	11	94
8:00 PM	14	158
8:30 PM	4	92
9:30 PM	1	94
11:00 PM	0	158
Total	239	2058

 

AMC Highlands 24
IMAX:
4:30 PM	4	384
7:30 PM	15	384
10:30 PM	1	384
Dolby:
4:00 PM	15	210
7:00 PM	71	210
10:00 PM	12	210
2D:
5:15 PM	2	159
5:45 PM	2	159
6:15 PM	5	85
6:30 PM	2	85
7:15 PM	3	52
8:15 PM	2	159
8:45 PM	2	159
9:15 PM	0	85
9:30 PM	2	85
10:15 PM	2	52
Total	140	2862

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
850	96	14616	5.82%	8	81

 

IT 2 comp: 6.46M

Lion King comp: 6.38M

 

A decent jump, but nothing close to IT 2's jump on this day. At least the comps are still increasing though. If I were able to adjust right now, both of these comps would most definitely be over 7M.

Joker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24
Dolby:
4:00 PM	23	217
7:00 PM	107	217
10:00 PM	37	217
Prime:
4:30 PM	6	187
7:30 PM	39	187
10:30 PM	8	187
2D:
5:00 PM	5	158
5:30 PM	0	92
6:30 PM	11	94
8:00 PM	14	158
8:30 PM	4	92
9:30 PM	1	94
11:00 PM	0	158
Total	255	2058

 

AMC Highlands 24
IMAX:
4:30 PM	4	384
7:30 PM	22	384
10:30 PM	1	384
Dolby:
4:00 PM	17	210
7:00 PM	78	210
10:00 PM	14	210
2D:
5:15 PM	2	159
5:45 PM	2	159
6:15 PM	5	85
6:30 PM	2	85
7:15 PM	3	52
8:15 PM	2	159
8:45 PM	2	159
9:15 PM	0	85
9:30 PM	2	85
10:15 PM	2	52
Total	158	2862

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
926	76	14616	6.34%	8	81

 

IT 2 comp: 6.53M

Lion King comp: 6.39M

 

Well it dropped from yesterday. I'm not surprised though, IT 2 did the same thing. But the chances of Joker beating IT 2 grow slimmer and slimmer.

Edited September 29, 2019 by Inceptionzq

[RealLyre]

seems like 2019 will be the first year in history in which all 100M openers (at least more than one) are from the same studio.

 

Joker is the only movie that could stop this but from the data here that seems unlikely  

[Old Spice]

1 hour ago, narniadis said:

As noted in my original post, Aquaman was a December film so its not a fair comparison. Wonder Woman has legs and a reduced ow definitely due to the erratic quality issues. Its always telling if the exceptions are what people look at to make a call instead of the norm. 

Of course Aquaman benefitted from its December release date, but that doesn't mean you can just exclude it because it doesn't fit your narrative. It had great legs (and yeah, I think getting a multiplier of almost 5 off a $68 OW is pretty damn great) primarily because audiences enjoyed it, not because it came out 4 days before Christmas. And the Snyder/Ayers movies which comprise 100% of the case for "DC's legs problem" have little to no predictive value going forward, since pretty much everything has changed over at WB since then.

 

Again, it's a quality problem, not a brand problem, and if you fix the quality, which they seem to have done 🤞, the rest should take care of itself.

 

 

Edited September 29, 2019 by A Star is Orm
typo

[Eric Duncan]

11 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

seems like 2019 will be the first year in history in which all 100M openers (at least more than one) are from the same studio.

 

Joker is the only movie that could stop this but from the data here that seems unlikely  

Technically 2002 and 2004 did that. But in those years, only one movie hit that mark, while 2019 will have...six.