The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Old Spice]

Salt Lake Valley report for Joker, preview night, 3:30 PM local

 

Salt Lake City

Cinemark Sugarhouse, 11 screens.

Total 376/779 48.3%

Tickets sold today- 130 (!)

 

470% of Dark Phoenix = $154M OW

372% of Godzilla =$178 M

339% of John Wick = $192M

202% of Pika = $110M

105% of IT: Chapter 2 = $95.6

77% of TLK = 147.6

 

West Jordan

Cinemark 24 Jordan Landing, 13 screens.

Total 497/1961 25.3%

Tickets sold today- 214 (!!)

 

First time ever tracking dailies, but holy shit. Joker absolutely exploded today. Sugarhouse saw a 50%+ move, not from yesterday but from its previous total, and West Jordan did even better, with an almost 75% leap. I'm not willing to totally drink the Kool Aid on those comps, but I do think this is going to be less front loaded than is generally thought. It's become the epitome of a "water cooler" film, and based on the audience scores from overseas so far (4.7/5 in Hong Kong, 92% in SK, apparently strong in India and Greece as well), I think good WOM on this is going to carry it through the weekend to a $105M opening.

 

(Hey, I may be wrong... I almost certainly will... but I know I'll be closer than the "experts" on CNBC earlier who were apparently throwing out numbers as low as $50M 🤣)

 

Will report back later with final counts from Sugarhouse.

 

 

Edited October 4, 2019 by A Star is Orm
typo

[keysersoze123]

Final Update for NYC area as we are past screening time.

 

Empire 25 sold 3049 tickets. This does not include sellouts which AMC seem to pull out and so I cannot pull the data.

 

Spoiler

AMC Empire 25
Imax:226/303(430PM),278/303(730PM),237/303(1030PM)Total 741/909
Dolby:194/225(400PM),218/225(700PM),200/225(1000PM)Total 612/675
Prime:147/180(500PM),169/180(800PM),122/180(1100PM)Total 438/540
2D:2/122(A10 410PM),87/377(A13 415PM),18/121(A15 420PM),25/99(A11 440PM),25/158(A6 450PM),35/146(A7 510PM),
2/145(A25 520PM),47/309(A14 530PM),24/144(A20 540PM),23/134(A5 550PM),8/309(A9 6PM),50/121(A21 610PM),
30/126(A3 620PM),50/262(A17 630PM),32/99(A16 640PM),41/142(A19 650PM),3/122(A10 710PM),123/377(A13 715PM),
60/121(A15 720PM),45/99(A11 740PM),54/158(A6 750PM),60/146(A7 810PM),38/145(A25 820PM),94/309(A14 830PM),
8/144(A20 840PM),32/134(A5 850PM),4/309(A9 9PM),20/121(A21 910PM),10/126(A3 920PM),39/262(A17 930PM),
10/99(A16 940PM),21/142(A19 950PM),3/122(A10 1010PM),32/377(A13 1015PM),15/121(A15 1020PM)
2/99(A11 1040PM),16/158(A6 1050PM),2/146(A7 1110PM),9/145(A25 1120PM),15/309(A14 1020PM)
10/144(A20 1140PM),34/134(A5 1150PM).  Total 1258/7383

Overall 3049/9507

 

 

Spoiler

AMC NYC/NJ/PA Area Previews (47 Theaters/820 shows)
 Total:36912/103782
AMC DC Area Previews (19 Theaters/182 shows)
 Total:7901/31355

AMC Miami Area(112 shows)
 Total:5910/18461

AMC Orlando Area(78 shows)
 Total:3170/16218

 

 

[a2k]

Want to point out that Joker's prod budget is only 55m. Venom was already so frugally made but still had a 100m budget. Gonna bring in big profits for WB. Considering dom gives 55% returns Joker could make it's prod budget back in 3 days with rest of dom eating into marketing budget. Most of OS should be gravy with non-theatrical revenue still to come.

[DAJK]

Walk-ups for 4PM tripled what sales were at last night

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

Are we about to witness a WW level of walk ups and backload?

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Walk-ups for 4PM tripled what sales were at last night

I am seeing the same. NY most shows in 2d only theaters closed to sellouts. DC is adding 400 tickets per hour in just AMC theaters.

 

I am bumping my preview prediction to 15m

[FlashMaster659]

Joker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL UPDATE) [2:15pm - 3:50pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	% Sold
TOTALS	1	230	8421	50182	41761	16.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day: 1359

 

Final Comps:

	Time	%		Sold Since Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Hustlers	6:00-6:40	405.83		609	2075		0/60	8683/10758	19.29%		10.15m
Rambo: Last Blood	6:10-6:35	873.55		310	964		0/51	12050/13014	7.41%		11.36m

 

Final Adjusted Comps: (use at own risk tbh)

	Time	%		Sold T-0 Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
It: 2	3:30-6:30	87.56		n/a	9068		1/221	31775/40843	22.20%		9.19m
Joker (It: 2 adj)	2:15-3:50	n/a		n/a	7940		1/207	34985/42925	18.50%		n/a

 

===

 

Due to the time this report was taken compared to the comps used here, Joker is likely being under-indexed here, especially the It: 2 comp. This is probably the last time I'll use It: 2 as a final comp in any of my final reports due to the fact that not only did I start it later than Joker, but due to things going haywire in the making of that report it ran much later and much of the data gathering took place after the first shows had already started.

 

So anyways, I guess I'm gonna go with a $11.5M preview number prediction +/-$0.75M. Tonight should be solid for Joker.

Edited October 3, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[Porthos]

Joker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:00pm - 4:00pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	250	23635	29138	5503	18.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

950

 

Final Unadjusted Comp

	Time	%		Sold Since Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
It 2	4:00-5:00	97.24		1090	5659		0/236	18125/23784	23.79%		10.21m

 

Final Adjusted Comps #1

	Time	%		Sold Since Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
JW2	5:30-6:15	77.73		1275	6228		1/147	7487/13715	45.41%		11.89m
DP2	5:30-6:30	59.52		1262	8133		3/169	8357/16490	49.32%		11.07m
Joker (adj)	3:00-4:00	n/a		795	4841		0/250	17492/22333	21.68%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Joker (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Deadpool 2.

 

Final Adjusted Comps #2

	Time	%		Sold T-0 Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Venom	4:15-4:50	109.90		1012	4493		0/127	8736/13229	33.96%		10.99m
Joker (adj)	3:00-4:00	n/a		819	4938		0/250	19868/24806	19.91%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Joker (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Venom.

 

Final Adjusted 4pm Comps

	Time	%		Sold Since Mid Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Pika Pika	3:30-4:00	175.87		447	3096		0/112	7172/10268	30.15%		10.02m
KotM	3:20-4:00	189.19		492	2878		0/129	12885/15763	18.26%		11.91m
OUaTiH	???-4:00	182.29		-----	2987		-----	4565/7552	39.55%		10.57m
Joker (adj)	3:00-4:00	n/a		942	5445		0/250	21497/26942	20.21%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Joker (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Deadpool 2.

 

Thoughts and what I think might be the comp in a few minutes.

[Porthos]

I threw in the 4pmers I had as something of a tie-breaker even though there will be far fewer kids tickets sold for Joker than Pika PIka.  On the other hand, KotM had both 3D and huge PLF penetration.  Looking everything over, gonna stick with my earlier call of 11m to 11.5m, +/- .3m.

 

That's a wider range I like, but this is an atypical movie in a year filled with atypical movies.

 

It DID sell a lot this half-day.  I even made sure to go back and re-index some of the heavy hitters (and I'm glad I did). But no matter how it's sliced, Sacramento just isn't showing 15m.  That's why the 4pmers were included.

 

Maybe Sacramento is underperforming.  Wouldn't surprise me.  But I can't personally see much more than 12m or 12.5m.  But I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again.  Either way, this is what Sacramento is showing. 

 

I'll take a quick look at other CBMs and see if they're showing much of a difference.  But given the later start times AND 3D, I'm not hopeful for much of a difference.

 

EDIT:  All of the comps average out to 10.95m, for what it's worth.

 

So, probably put me down for 11m in your comp sheet, @captainwondyful, even though I'm eyeing more something like 11.25m.  But that later number is an adjusted call and not data.  If you'd rather use 11.25m or the 11m to 11.5m range in your archive, fine by me.

Edited October 3, 2019 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

29 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

Are we about to witness a WW level of walk ups and backload?

I've learned not to use the word "never" in regards to BO but...I can't really see that happening.

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

For what is worth, it seems like it’s blowing up overseas.The data that we have so far are impressive from HK,SK,India,Indonesia.PS are very strong in countries like Mexico,UK and Switzerland.IMO,Europe will show up for this big time and there are plenty indications that this will be a walk up beast.We will see I guess...

 

But I’m this close upping my prediction to 15M/115M OW

Edited October 3, 2019 by TheDarkKnightOfSteel

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

I've learned not to use the word "never" in regards to BO but...I can't really see that happening.

Yeah no way it gets 11x internal multy but 8.5-9x?

[Cap]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

So, probably put me down for 11m in your comp sheet, @captainwondyful, even though I'm eyeing more something like 11.25m.  But that later number is an adjusted call and not data.  If you'd rather use 11.25m or the 11m to 11.5m range in your archive, fine by me.

I like a single number so I can average things in Excel without having to do Math.

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

I like a single number so I can average things in Excel without having to do Math.

Either 11m (data) or 11.25m (more or less call).  Your choice.

 

EDIT:::

 

@captainwondyful Put me down for 11m in the comp sheet.  Data is data and calls are calls, and the two really shouldn't be mixed.

 

If it's wrong, it's wrong.

 

...

 

Also I don't feel like going through my dozen other comps I have to see if I can refine it or not.  

Edited October 4, 2019 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

Yeah no way it gets 11x internal multy but 8.5-9x?

I won't say that's impossible but for this kind of movie, with this sort of sales pattern, it'll be very difficult. It'll need insane walk-ups, better than it's had today to be honest. It's dug itself a big hole on Friday (from what I'm seeing) to be able to get in the high 8s multiplier. I'll post my final Friday report tonight or tomorrow morning and I'd hope to see a big surge if things were headed that way.

[JB33]

With all due sincere respect to everyone who does incredible work in this thread, I'm going to go with Porthos' range ($11M to $11.5M). because he's usually right on the mark.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, JB33 said:

With all due sincere respect to everyone who does incredible work in this thread, I'm going to go with Porthos' range ($11M to $11.5M). because he's usually right on the mark.

 

My TS4/TLK misses say otherwise, but thanks for the vote of confidence.

 

[Alex SciChannel]

57 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I threw in the 4pmers I had as something of a tie-breaker even though there will be far fewer kids tickets sold for Joker than Pika PIka.  On the other hand, KotM had both 3D and huge PLF penetration.  Looking everything over, gonna stick with my earlier call of 11m to 11.5m, +/- .3m.

 

That's a wider range I like, but this is an atypical movie in a year filled with atypical movies.

 

It DID sell a lot this half-day.  I even made sure to go back and re-index some of the heavy hitters (and I'm glad I did). But no matter how it's sliced, Sacramento just isn't showing 15m.  That's why the 4pmers were included.

 

Maybe Sacramento is underperforming.  Wouldn't surprise me.  But I can't personally see much more than 12m or 12.5m.  But I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again.  Either way, this is what Sacramento is showing. 

 

I'll take a quick look at other CBMs and see if they're showing much of a difference.  But given the later start times AND 3D, I'm not hopeful for much of a difference.

 

EDIT:  All of the comps average out to 10.95m, for what it's worth.

 

So, probably put me down for 11m in your comp sheet, @captainwondyful, even though I'm eyeing more something like 11.25m.  But that later number is an adjusted call and not data.  If you'd rather use 11.25m or the 11m to 11.5m range in your archive, fine by me.

I pray it pulls through to 11.5M. Either way, I sure hope it has nice walk Ups throughout the weekend.

[excel1]

On 10/2/2019 at 11:44 AM, excel1 said:

$20m+ previews

 

[excel1]

2 hours ago, A Star is Orm said:

470% of Dark Phoenix = $154M OW

372% of Godzilla =$178 M

339% of John Wick = $192M

77% of TLK = 147.6

 

 

Sounds about right