The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

Speaking of TMobile I promotion, I have a code that I plan not to use. I am ok to IM this to preferably someone regular who is eager to see the movie. IM me if you are interested.

[filmlover]

Deadline:

 

The Addams Family: $28-30M

Gemini Man: $24-29M

Jexi: low single digits

 

Also projecting a second weekend of $42.5M for Joker.

 

https://deadline.com/2019/10/joker-october-tuesday-box-office-record-weekend-forecast-addams-family-will-smith-gemini-man-1202756065/

[Old Spice]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Deadline:

 

The Addams Family: $28-30M

Gemini Man: $24-29M

Jexi: low single digits

 

Also projecting a second weekend of $42.5M for Joker.

 

https://deadline.com/2019/10/joker-october-tuesday-box-office-record-weekend-forecast-addams-family-will-smith-gemini-man-1202756065/

Based on what I'm seeing this week in Salt Lake, I'd take $5M away from Gemini Man and add at least that amount to Joker.

[DAJK]

Honestly 25M would be a win for Gemini Man at this point. Hoping the 3 major openers can combine for 55M or so though. 

[DAJK]

It's funny the more I think about it the more this weekend is starting to reflect the Hotel Transylvania/Looper weekend lmao.

 

You've got a Halloween-themed animated film (that may be poised to break out, and was being predicted at 25M or so) going up against a sci-fi actioner about a hit man who has to kill his older self (that will probably open to o/u 20M). Not to mention there's a comedy starring Adam Devine that'll probably open to low-to-mid single digits (albeit in a lot more theatres). 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Looked at Addams family previews and OD at AMC and data is not pretty.

 

Previews - 6393/155228 (1169 shows)
OD -13523/372510 (2557 shows)

 

While I am new to this but it looks like < 1m previews and definitely not 30m OW but more like 20m OW optimistically. I could however be wrong. I will add Cinemark previews shortly. I doubt they will change my thoughts a lot.

 

of course this could be a walk ups monster and so I will update tomorrow night to see how did walk ups go for this tomorrow.

Cinemark Addams family Previews( 1236 shows ):3844/123614

 

Not great.its below Mal 2 which is opening next week and is not having a great PS either. I am going to stick with my prediction made above.

[Old Spice]

Still not a single ticket sold for Gemini Man's preview night at SLC Sugarhouse. I don't think I've ever seen this before, especially not for a would-be blockbuster. Will Smith coming off a huge hit with Aladdin, intriguing yet easy to follow premise, respected director... you'd think it would be getting at least some degree of interest, even with the sinking RT scores.

 

Theories?

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, A Star is Orm said:

Still not a single ticket sold for Gemini Man's preview night at SLC Sugarhouse. I don't think I've ever seen this before, especially not for a would-be blockbuster. Will Smith coming off a huge hit with Aladdin, intriguing yet easy to follow premise, respected director... you'd think it would be getting at least some degree of interest, even with the sinking RT scores.

 

Theories?

Cinemark Gemini Man Previews -  1835/118051 (1102 shows)

 

I looked at Cinemark data and numbers are abysmal. That said its getting Imax(released as HFR 3D) and I see near sellouts at Major AMC theaters in NYC. I will pull in AMC data to see how it looks. But just with good Imax gross its going to have decent previews. I will predict after seeing AMC data.

[Barnack]

4 hours ago, TMP said:

That early Gemini Man embargo was a duuuuuuumb idea from Paramount. Kind of took the steam out of it two weeks before launch.

I feel it is quite tracking dependent, if you love your numbers and have a superlate embargo, even if the review were good it was not dumb to not take any chance (like WB did with It, Wonder Woman, etc...), if (and I would imagine being the case) you numbers are really low, rolling the dice with critics on Ang Lee is not a dumb idea.

[reddevil19]

Cinemas must be fuming, having to give Gemini Man PLF screens with Joker performing as it is... 

Chances of Joker at least getting a split of screens back next week? 

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Cinemas must be fuming, having to give Gemini Man PLF screens with Joker performing as it is... 

Chances of Joker at least getting a split of screens back next week? 

None as Maleficent 2 already has them locked up.

[TalismanRing]

Embarrassing, Gemini Man sold 0 tickets over the last 24 hours and Adams  Family managed to lose 4 tickets

 

NYC Local

 

Gemini Man	Tues (10/8) (4pm)		Wed (10/8) (4pm)
(2D) 7:PM	10/255		10/255
(2D) 7:50PM	10/246		10/246
(2D) 10:15PM	8/257		8/257
(2D) 10:45PM	10/246		10/246
	38/1004 = 3.78%		38/1004 = 3.78%
Adams Family	Tues (10/8) (4pm)		Wed (10/8) (4pm)
(2D) 4PM	8/205		8/205
(2D) 5PM	10/246		10/246
(2D) 6:30PM	11/205		7/205
(2D) 7:30PM	6/257		6/257
(2D) 9PM	7/205		7/205
(2D) 10PM	11/255		11/255
	53/1373 = 3.86%		49/1373 = 3.56%

[Porthos]

21 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Cinemas must be fuming, having to give Gemini Man PLF screens with Joker performing as it is... 

Chances of Joker at least getting a split of screens back next week? 

 

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

None as Maleficent 2 already has them locked up.

I should slightly hesitate and mention that depending on how the contracts were written for Gemini Man, they might try to unload some of the PLF/Dolby screens during Gemini Man's actual opening week (ie past the weekend).  

 

As I check out some locals, I see that Joker is getting some PLF screens during Gemini Man's actual opening week.

 

But once Maleficent 2 strolls in, PLF time for Joker is over.  Also checked ahead and Maleficent 2 is holding on to them throughout its opening week.

[Porthos]

*double checks*

 

Huh.  Gemini Man doesn't even have a monopoly on PLF currently locally for this weekend. 

 

It does have the IMAX screens (fake and true).  But XD (Cinemark) and RPX (Regal, where applicable) are both Joker.

 

Innnnteresting.

[reddevil19]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I should slightly hesitate and mention that depending on how the contracts were written for Gemini Man, they might try to unload some of the PLF/Dolby screens during Gemini Man's actual opening week (ie past the weekend).  

 

As I check out some locals, I see that Joker is getting some PLF screens during Gemini Man's actual opening week.

 

But once Maleficent 2 strolls in, PLF time for Joker is over.  Also checked ahead and Maleficent 2 is holding on to them throughout its opening week.

Aye, that's why I said next week, as I was anticipating no change for the weekend, but maybe a few screenings during the Mon-Thu period. 

Interesting that, as you said, Joker still has some PLF during the weekend, even if no IMAX. 

[cdsacken]

It's the way it should be for PLF. Joker is super popular Gemini is not . Let it push for 200m domestically quickly so the final number doesn't matter.

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Aye, that's why I said next week, as I was anticipating no change for the weekend, but maybe a few screenings during the Mon-Thu period. 

Interesting that, as you said, Joker still has some PLF during the weekend, even if no IMAX. 

Yeah, IMAX contracts tend to be much harder to mess with from what I've seen.  But theater specific PLF screens can be a bit more fluid, at least from my casual experience.

 

For what it's worth, there are more non-IMAX PLF screens locally than there are IMAX:

 

XD:    5 screens

RPX:   1 screen

IMAX: 3 screens

 

(not including the Cinema West "Giant Screens" this time as none of them look to be applying the PLF upcharge for either of these movies)

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Cinemark Gemini Man Previews -  1835/118051 (1102 shows)

 

I looked at Cinemark data and numbers are abysmal. That said its getting Imax(released as HFR 3D) and I see near sellouts at Major AMC theaters in NYC. I will pull in AMC data to see how it looks. But just with good Imax gross its going to have decent previews. I will predict after seeing AMC data.

AMC - 14726/183881 (982 shows)

 

Just as I thought its doing way better in AMC and that too in IMAX/PLF screens it has gotten in big markets. Not so much for 2d shows. But no question its going to have way better previews than Addams family. I am thinking  ~ 2.5m.

[DAJK]

Gemini Man seems like the type of movie that will do o/u 10x its preview number (probably less). So a 2.5M preview could indicate low-20s is possible, probably not much more than that though. 

[Porthos]

Already being talked about in the TROS thread, but a heads up for trackers:

 

 

SWNN has an article up about it, for what its worth.

 

And, yes, Black Series Rebels is a pretty legit voice within SW circles, though obviously not official.

 

===

 

Now this IS just for the trailer.  I suppose it is possible that Disney, in its infinite wisdom, might release the TROS trailer on Monday Night Football and not release tickets.  But why slap this on MNF if it isn't part of the ticket launch?

 

If this is a ticket drop as well, then it follows the pattern of launching a pre-sale ticket drive when a Disney movie finishes its OW.

 

But what about Frozen 2?  Does Disney wait a week and release them the week of the 28th?  That gives Frozen 2 pre-sales about the same length of time as TS4, TLK, and Aladdin, for those keeping track.  Or does it really court madness by releasing both on the same day (Frozen 2 in the morning, TROS in the evening)?

 

Still for right now, consider this a Strong Rumor.  Especially since it technically is only for the TROS trailer.