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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Considering how badly sequels like Alice 2 and Huntsman: Winter's War fell from their predecessors and how unkind the marketplace has been towards untimely/unnecessary sequels in recent years, a $40M+ debut for Maleficent would be rather terrific.

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On 10/11/2019 at 2:07 AM, Porthos said:

 

At T-7, Maleficent 2 is now at 413 tickets sold (+36 the last two days).

 

43.84% of Pika Pika (2.50m) [-0.42m from last check]

35.14% of Aladdin   (2.46m) [-0.11m from last check]

26.68% of It 2         (2.80m) [-0.24m from last check]

 

And the lolcheck is:

 

91.17% of H&S       (5.29m) [-0.92m from last check]

 

Presuming Sacramento isn't over-performing (which might not be a good presumption with Philly's and Denver's numbers), looks to be converging on 2.5m.  Maybe 2m if they keep dropping.  FWIW, TS4 comp is down a tick to 2.34m and TLK is at a similar number of 2.38m,

 

So not crashing (yet), but not headed in the right direction, either.

Three days later...

 

At T-4, Maleficent 2 might have finally stabilized a bit.  It has now sold 527 tickets region wide (+114 tickets in last three days).

 

42.26% of Pika Pika (2.41m) [-0.09m from last check]

36.22% of Aladdin   (2.54m) [+0.08m from last check]

26.21% of It 2          (2.75m) [-0.05m from last check]

 

The traditional lolcheck:

 

81.45% of H&S       (4.72m) [-0.57m from last check]

 

TS4 comps to 2.27m (-0.07m) and TLK comps to 2.36m (+0.02m).  

 

No real change.  Well, a change in that the bleeding has stopped and possibly reversed if Aladdin is a good comp.  So still holding at 2.25m to 2.5m.  Probably on the higher end, I'd say.

 

About to hit crunch time though, so there's still time for it to hit 3m.  Also time for it to backslide if it doesn't take off.

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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

About to hit crunch time though, so there's still time for it to hit 3m.  Also time for it to backslide if it doesn't take off.

I agree. That puts things perfectly for Mal2. It needs major acceleration and lot more shows to be added as well to hit that 3m. At least the momentum is there. I hope to see double the ticket sales for tomorrow from today.

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So Parasite still sold out most of its shows today at the IFC Center....a MONDAY.

 

I've never seen a foreign film this hyped at the box office.

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Parasite is gonna get Picture and Director nomination. Reviews + boxoffice, it checked those boxes.

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20 hours ago, Alex SciChannel said:

For some reason I can only find showtimes for The Lighthouse on the 24th and beyond. Nothing on the 18th or any weekday before the 24th. Can someone tell me why this is?

 

15 hours ago, DAJK said:

Yes, cause if anything can be learned from Suspiria, is that it was a genuine box office success, and the studio handled its release perfectly. 

It's getting a platform release (4 theaters) like every other platform release. Suspire is panned, this is not.

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5 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Parasite is gonna get Picture and Director nomination. Reviews + boxoffice, it checked those boxes.

I cant believe South Korea had never nominated for Best Foreign Film but when they have one, they are going to win it along with Best Pic nomination 

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NYC Local Mon   Tues   Wed   Thur   Previews Preview Start
Shazam!         129/2229 (Afternoon) 187/2229 (3:30pm) $5.9m 4:00 PM
Avengers: Endgame 3948/4,736 (12am)     4,853/5493 (9pm)     $60m 6:00 PM
Aladdin     98/1242 (12pm)         $7m 6:00 PM
Godzilla 2         135/1915 (7:45pm) 204/2150 (3:30pm) $6.3m 4:00 PM
X-Men: DP     103/942 (4pm) 209/942 (3:15pm) 272/942 (3:45pm) $5m 6:00 PM
SLOP 2     38/771 (4pm) 43/771 (3:15pm)     $2.3m 6:00 PM
Toy Story 4     165/2049 (4pm) 233/2049 (7:40pm)     $12m 6:00 PM
SM:FFH 142/922               $2.8m Midnights Only
The Lion King 236/3228 (6:30pm) 294/3228 (6:20pm) 444/3228 (4:30pm) 557/3228 (4:30pm) $23m 6:00 PM
OUATIH     117/1179 (2:15pm) 159/1179 (4pm) 335/1179 (4pm) $5.8m 4:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw 60/1543 (5:20pm)     181/1543 (4pm)     $5.8m 7:00 PM
IT Part 2 147/2764 (9am)     239/2764 (7:10pm)     $10.5m 5:00 PM
Hustlers     45/512 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) $2.5m 6:00 PM
Downton Abbey (early pvs)     37/301 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) $2.2m 7:00 PM
Ad Astra     26/602 (4:30pm) 26/602 (4:30pm) 41/602 (4:30pm) $1.5m 6:00 PM
Downton Abbey     31/512 (4:30pm) 39/512 (4:30pm) 52/1015 (4:30pm) $2.1m 7:00 PM
Rambo     29/302 (4:30pm) 53/1242 (4:30pm) 58/1242 (4:30pm) $1.3m 6:00 PM
Abominable     30/255 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) 73/1969 (4:30pm) $.665m 6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week) 104/2766 (9am) 172/2766 (4:30pm)     217/3536 (4pm)   4:00 PM
Joker 328/3536 (4:20pm) 399/3536 (4pm) 542/3536 (4pm) 760/3741 (3:45pm)   4:00 PM
Gemini Man     38/1004 (4pm) 38/1004 (4pm) 78/1004 [6:30pm]   7:00 PM
Adams Family     53/1373 (4pm) 49/1373 (4pm)       4:00 PM
Maleficent 2 39/1154 (4pm)               7:00 PM
Zombieland 2 51/1114 (4pm)               7:00 PM
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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24    
3D:    
7:30 PM 22 48
10:20 PM 4 48
Dolby:     
7:00 PM 10 217
9:50 PM 2 217
2D:    
7:00 PM 19 158
10:05 PM 3 158
     
Total 60 846

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
124 17 3942 3.15% 7 28

 

Shows added: 2

Seats added: 358

 

Half adjusted Lion King comp: 1.04M

Addams Family comp: 2.92M

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24    
3D:    
7:30 PM 22 48
10:20 PM 4 48
Dolby:     
7:00 PM 16 217
9:50 PM 3 217
2D:    
7:00 PM 24 158
10:05 PM 3 158
     
Total 72 846

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
159 35 4065 3.91% 7 29

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 123

 

Half adjusted Lion King comp: 1.18M

Addams Family comp: 3.55M

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23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Zombieland: Double Tap Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24    
Prime:    
7:00 PM 20 187
10:10 PM 1 187
2D:    
7:00 PM 37 94
9:40 PM 16 94
     
Total 74 562

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
161 25 3217 5.00% 7 18

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 266

 

Gemini Man comp: 2.53M

Rambo comp: 4.27M

Hustlers comp: 3.59M

Half adjusted Hobbs comp: 2.46M

Zombieland: Double Tap Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24    
Prime:    
7:00 PM 41 187
10:10 PM 2 187
2D:    
7:00 PM 37 94
9:40 PM 16 94
     
Total 96 562

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
214 53 3217 6.65% 7 18

 

Gemini Man comp: 2.93M

Rambo comp: 4.56M

Hustlers comp: 3.52M

Half adjusted Hobbs comp: 2.72M

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1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Thursday Night Showings Denver

 

Addams Family comp: 3.55M

That's actually... intriguing.  I don't regularly track low openers so makes me wonder if this might be a better comp than some of the ones I personally do have on hand.

 

Though still a ton of differences.  4pm v 7pm.  3D and PLF. Sequel factor.  Animation versus live action.  Still interesting.  Wonder if Philly is gonna show something similar, if Eric has that comp.

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27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

That's actually... intriguing.  I don't regularly track low openers so makes me wonder if this might be a better comp than some of the ones I personally do have on hand.

 

Though still a ton of differences.  4pm v 7pm.  3D and PLF. Sequel factor.  Animation versus live action.  Still interesting.  Wonder if Philly is gonna show something similar, if Eric has that comp.

Probably a better comp than The Lion King, at least in Denver, but still not too good until previews start. I don’t expect Maleficent to almost quadruple from Wed to Thurs, like Addams Family. But it should do better than a 50% increase like The Lion King.

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Maleficent is selling super well around here so far. Thursday night alone has already sold about 80 seats. Worth mentioning also it's been getting a big push around here the past few weeks with the digital billboards (which is common for Disney movies).

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14 hours ago, Spaghetti said:

So Parasite still sold out most of its shows today at the IFC Center....a MONDAY.

 

I've never seen a foreign film this hyped at the box office.

The other two theatres are down. Only 20k sp far from the two in LA.

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8 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

The other two theatres are down. Only 20k sp far from the two in LA.

I suppose there's time to recover but not a lot. The IFC screens arent super big so they're probably easier to sell out, especially since that's the only place in NYC showing it.

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23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mal2(T-4)

AMC - 12988/154521 (747 shows) +1015

Cinemark - 5820/140770(1056 shows) +532

 

Excellent PS day and it is ramping up. I feel its previews will end up > 3m. BTW what were the previews for the 1st film.

Mal2(T-3)

AMC - 14872/157789(768 shows) + 1884

Cinemark - 6873/148291(1106 shows) + 1053

 

Good increase at 2 chains though it did not double at AMC. It almost doubled at Cinemark. Added few shows at both the chains though not as much as what I want to see. We have to wait until thursday for the real action.

Edited by keysersoze123
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Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 32 195 8,464 2.30%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 468

Total Seats Sold Today: 24

 

Comp

2.330x of Dora (2.91M)

4.761x of Abominable (3.09M)

2.305x of Addams Family (2.88M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.036x of Lion King (834K)

0.317x of Hobbs & Shaw (1.84M)

 

Ignore the adjusted comps, and things do look better. The mean of the first three comps is about 2.96M, which would probably give us an OW in the high 30s. It's still way below tracking, would be massive drop from the first film, objectively not a good opening, sure. But if we're looking glass half full, this movie could have and still might go the way of Huntsman: Winter's War or Alice Through the Looking Glass. So going the way of Lego 2 or Pets 2...eh, it could be worse. Hopefully the next few days improve, but I'm not exactly getting my hopes up at the moment.

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Zombieland: Double Tap Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 31 288 4,906 5.87%

 

Comp

 

4.174x of Stuber (3.13M)

0.442x of Once Upon (2.57M)

0.186x of It 2 (1.95M)

0.143x of Joker (1.90M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.397x of Hobbs & Shaw (2.30M)

 

In a vacuum those numbers seem good, but this will probably be pretty frontloaded and fan-driven, so even 20M wouldn't necessarily be safe with some of those comps. But of course, I could be wrong, and I'm hoping for the best as always.

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Terminator: Dark Fate Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 36 83 8,792 0.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1

 

Comp

0.126x of It: Chapter Two 17 days before release (1.33M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.671x of Hobbs & Shaw 17 days before release (3.89M)

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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