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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Zombieland(T-4)

AMC - 8899/90753 (528 shows) +1072

Cinemark - 3369/67196 (594 shows) + 577

 

Excellent increase today despite overall numbers still being low. I am hoping it will get more shows added tomorrow. Stick too 2m previews for now.

Zombieland (T-3)

AMC - 10692/90351(535 shows) + 1793

Cinemark - 4746/72711((678 shows) +1377

 

It had even better than Malficent 2 but its way behind that movie with fewer shows. Unless it has huge acceleration next 2 days could end up below Gemini Man last week which played very well in Imax/PLF in major cities but almost nothing elsewhere.

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Just now, Porthos said:

Out of curiosity, @keysersoze123, approx how long does it take your scraper(s) to run, anyway?

for Malficent and Zombieland around 5 minutes. Joker takes between 15-30 minutes depending on network speeds. I dont even want to think how long SW9 will take. That said there is other part where I look for new shows and that takes 10-15 minutes. There are around 300 cinemark and 350 Amc theaters with reserved tickets to search for. I am still trying to optimize things(already I run 8 processes in parallel to speed up Joker runs 🙂 ).

 

I have few ideas to get more data like Imax/PLF data at AMC, may be regional data as well. Need some time. I want to do that for SW9 for sure. That should be a monster to track. Though if it has too many sellouts my system will fail. Then the old fashioned way is the best way 🙂

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4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

for Malficent and Zombieland around 5 minutes. Joker takes between 15-30 minutes depending on network speeds. I dont even want to think how long SW9 will take. That said there is other part where I look for new shows and that takes 10-15 minutes. There are around 300 cinemark and 350 Amc theaters with reserved tickets to search for. I am still trying to optimize things(already I run 8 processes in parallel to speed up Joker runs 🙂 ).

 

I have few ideas to get more data like Imax/PLF data at AMC, may be regional data as well. Need some time. I want to do that for SW9 for sure. That should be a monster to track. Though if it has too many sellouts my system will fail. Then the old fashioned way is the best way 🙂

Not to tell you how to do things, but is it possible to pull out the auditorium number on your scraper?  Might be theoretically possible to cross reference a sellout to an empty/partial screening that way.  Though I realize with AMC that's more difficult with their annoying habit of removing sellouts entirely after a set period of time.

 

Also might be too complicated and or too CPU intensive though, so just consider me shooting from the hip here.

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Just now, Porthos said:

Not to tell you how to do things, but is it possible to pull out the auditorium number on your scraper?  Might be theoretically possible to cross reference a sellout to an empty/partial screening that way.  Though I realize with AMC that's more difficult with their annoying habit of removing sellouts entirely after a set period of time.

 

Also might be too complicated and or too CPU intensive though, so just consider me shooting from the hip here.

I have look at the scraped data. Fandango used to say the screen number(like A1 to A25 at empire 25) but AMC site itself did not show the data. But the scraped data should list the screen number somewhere. Problem is a mega PS movie could sellout shows very fast. So there may not be time to even scrap it. One way is ahead to time get data on screens and see how things stand when we run. But there is no full automated way at this point. But Let me think on this. If SW9 tickets dont start to sell until Frozen 2 opens we have time.

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1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I have look at the scraped data. Fandango used to say the screen number(like A1 to A25 at empire 25) but AMC site itself did not show the data. But the scraped data should list the screen number somewhere. Problem is a mega PS movie could sellout shows very fast. So there may not be time to even scrap it. One way is ahead to time get data on screens and see how things stand when we run. But there is no full automated way at this point. But Let me think on this. If SW9 tickets dont start to sell until Frozen 2 opens we have time.

Yeah, the "obvious" (note I DID NOT say "simple") way would be to keep track of each showing's auditorium number somewhere and then if your scraper can't find it anymore (either because AMC removed it or it's not accessible due to being sold out on Cinemark), flag it as a sellout internally and move on.  Maybe spit out sellouts somewhere to a separate file so you can look it over and go "sellout at 2am?  You stupid program, they just removed the showing entirely" and adjust it.

 

How to program that, I wouldn't have a clue, though.  But that's how I'd be thinking if I were trying to crack this nut.  Though if AMC doesn't have that data easily accessible at all, might be a moot point. 

 

Still, as you say, something to think about.

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59 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Yeah, the "obvious" (note I DID NOT say "simple") way would be to keep track of each showing's auditorium number somewhere and then if your scraper can't find it anymore (either because AMC removed it or it's not accessible due to being sold out on Cinemark), flag it as a sellout internally and move on.  Maybe spit out sellouts somewhere to a separate file so you can look it over and go "sellout at 2am?  You stupid program, they just removed the showing entirely" and adjust it.

 

How to program that, I wouldn't have a clue, though.  But that's how I'd be thinking if I were trying to crack this nut.  Though if AMC doesn't have that data easily accessible at all, might be a moot point. 

 

Still, as you say, something to think about.

Good ideas @PorthosLet us wait for SW9. for now we barely have sellouts until close to showtime.

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Back from holidays ;).
Counted today at ca. 9am EST:
Maleficent 2:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 189 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 249 (total tickets sold for Friday, 11 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 54 / 66 (7 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 48 / 56 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 171 / 145 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 11 / 10 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 23 / 21 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 16 / 19 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 210 / 301 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 114 + 1 Sell Out at 10pm (at least it says so but it would not be the first time that this is just a mistake which vanishes later) / 126 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 220 / 198 (13 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 10 theaters till Tuesday for Thursday: 1.056 (plus one possible Sell Out, if it's in the same theater that would be ca. another 250 tickets) and for Friday: 1.191.

Not the best comps: TLK had on Wednesday 9.101 and 9.705 sold tickets, It 2 had on Monday 2.885 and 3.086 and on Wednesday 3.730 and 4.316 (so its Tuesday number could have been at ca. 3.300 and 3.700 tickets).
OUATIH had on Monday 1.469 and 1.231 and on Wednesday 2.610 and 1.974 sold tickets (so its Tuesday number could have been at ca. 2.000 and 1.600 tickets).
It's still early but there's room for improvement. So far it looks more like 30M OW in my theaters. 

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https://deadline.com/2019/10/maleficent-mistress-of-evil-zombieland-double-tap-box-office-preview-1202760453/

 

Quote

Maleficent 2 opens in all offshore markets this weekend, including China and Japan which often go later, and it’s looking to do $115M-$125M. Here in the states, previews start at 7PM, and industry projections have the sequel to the 2014 movie at $50M (whereas some tracking firms are forecasting $45M). The first movie opened to $69.4M during the final weekend of May (after Memorial Day) off a 53% Rotten Tomatoes rating and solid A CinemaScore.  Maleficent 2 has an early RT score of 41% Rotten. Perhaps the princess fan-girls will tell the financial ending for this fairy tale once again. Maleficent 2 will play 4DX, as well as be released worldwide in Screen X at 230+ screens, across 26 countries, including 33 screens in the U.S. with Regal Cinemas, B&B Theatres and CGV Cinemas.

 

Also opening this weekend stateside and in a few markets abroad is the decade-in-the-waiting Sony sequel Ruben Fleischer-directed sequel Zombieland: Double Tap which is expected to do $30M (tracking sees it at $25M) in U.S. and Canada. Previews are at 7PM Thursday night. There is good chance that Zombieland 2 and Warner Bros./Village Roadshow/Bron’s Joker will be fighting over 2nd place as the latter eyes a similar amount of cash (R-rated DC pic did fantastic over 4-day Columbus Day holiday with $64.2M and a running total of $202M)

 

Edited by Inceptionzq

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So Maleficent it's still tracking at $ 45-50M, they must be counting it won't be much pre-sale heavy [which kinda makes sense]. If it happen, it will be a decent opening, all things considered.

 

The OS projection otherwise are great, i always think OS will save this movie and apparently it actually can happen. Considering it's a family movie and we're in October, an $ 115-125M OS opening probably means a good shot at $ 400M OS or slighty more.

 

 

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According to reddit showtimes are starting to pop up for TROSAllegedly Cinemark.

 

Looks to be 5pm Opening Night Fan Event and 6pm previews, again according to the thread.

 

Can't independently verify it though.

 

So, Endgame playbook it seems.  At least when it comes to showtimes.

 

 

Edited by Porthos
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14 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

So Maleficent it's still tracking at $ 45-50M, they must be counting it won't be much pre-sale heavy [which kinda makes sense]. If it happen, it will be a decent opening, all things considered.

 

The OS projection otherwise are great, i always think OS will save this movie and apparently it actually can happen. Considering it's a family movie and we're in October, an $ 115-125M OS opening probably means a good shot at $ 400M OS or slighty more.

 

 

The first one was $4.2m/$69.43m  - 16.53x  (May 30th)

 

It's a sequel and it's been 5 years and preview %s have gone up but in this case it's also October v post Memorial Day w/e with some school out

$3m in previews starting at 7pm - could get to $39-$45m even if the multi drops to 13-15x.  If the multi stays the same as the first then near $50m would be in play.

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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

According to reddit showtimes are starting to pop up for TROSAllegedly Cinemark.

 

Looks to be 5pm Opening Night Fan Event and 6pm previews, again according to the thread.

 

Can't independently verify it though.

 

So, Endgame playbook it seems.  At least when it comes to showtimes.

 

 

May be ticket sales at the box office counters ahead of actual online sales. I remember Lincoln Sq Imax selling TDKR tickets in January and selling out the show even without online sales. SW9 should not have an issue selling out without online sales.

 

I hope they done start online sales this early. I am dreading 2 months of online tracking for one movie !!!!

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17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

May be ticket sales at the box office counters ahead of actual online sales. I remember Lincoln Sq Imax selling TDKR tickets in January and selling out the show even without online sales. SW9 should not have an issue selling out without online sales.

 

I hope they done start online sales this early. I am dreading 2 months of online tracking for one movie !!!!

It wasn't that bad with Captain Marvel.  Most irritating thing, really, was dealing with the "why were there hardly any sales today" concerns when it was weeks away from premiering.

 

I absolutely expect some very dry spells after the initial rush, pending the occasional spike when various promotions hit.  One reason I'm glad I tracked all 59 days of CM (starting at T-58) is I'll have a near direct one-for-one comp, which is always helpful.  TROS should (*knocks on imitation wood desk*) be an order or two magnitude greater, but it'll still have the same relative peaks and valleys, I suspect.

 

===

 

If tickets do drop around 5pm to 6pm PDT next Monday (ahead of the trailer as ticketing sites usually jump the gun slightly), I won't report an official four hour total.  Instead, I'll roll it in to the next day's total as I did for both Captain Marvel and Solo as comping four or five hours of sales versus a near full day of sales is silly.  Probably go ahead and make a four/five hour unofficial update though.

Edited by Porthos
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On 10/14/2019 at 3:23 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24    
3D:    
7:30 PM 22 48
10:20 PM 4 48
Dolby:     
7:00 PM 16 217
9:50 PM 3 217
2D:    
7:00 PM 24 158
10:05 PM 3 158
     
Total 72 846

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
159 35 4065 3.91% 7 29

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 123

 

Half adjusted Lion King comp: 1.18M

Addams Family comp: 3.55M

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24    
3D:    
7:30 PM 24 48
10:20 PM 4 48
Dolby:     
7:00 PM 23 217
9:50 PM 3 217
2D:    
7:00 PM 26 158
10:05 PM 3 158
     
Total 83 846

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
199 40 4065 4.90% 7 29

 

Half adjusted Lion King comp: 1.27M

Addams Family comp: 3.07M

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On 10/14/2019 at 3:40 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Zombieland: Double Tap Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24    
Prime:    
7:00 PM 41 187
10:10 PM 2 187
2D:    
7:00 PM 37 94
9:40 PM 16 94
     
Total 96 562

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
214 53 3217 6.65% 7 18

 

Gemini Man comp: 2.93M

Rambo comp: 4.56M

Hustlers comp: 3.52M

Half adjusted Hobbs comp: 2.72M

Zombieland: Double Tap Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24    
Prime:    
7:00 PM 59 187
10:10 PM 8 187
2D:    
7:00 PM 39 94
9:40 PM 16 94
     
Total 122 562

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
287 73 3397 8.45% 7 20

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 180

 

Gemini Man comp: 3.4M

Rambo comp: 4.44M

Hustlers comp: 3.11M

Half adjusted Hobbs comp: 3.12M

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50.0 - Maleficent 2 - 50.0
30.0 - Joker - 250.0
24.0 - Zombieland 2 - 24.0
13.5 - The Addams Family - 54.0
11.5 - Gemini Man - 40.0
3.5 - Abominable - 54.5
3.0 - Downtown Abbey - 88.5
2.5 - Hustlers - 102.5
2.0 - It: Chapter Two - 210.5

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18 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mal2(T-3)

AMC - 14872/157789(768 shows) + 1884

Cinemark - 6873/148291(1106 shows) + 1053

 

Good increase at 2 chains though it did not double at AMC. It almost doubled at Cinemark. Added few shows at both the chains though not as much as what I want to see. We have to wait until thursday for the real action.

Mid day update

Mal 2 ( T-2)

AMC - 15938/159115 +1066

Cinemark - 7505/146820 + 632

 

Not much of an acceleration from yesterday. It needs to explode tomorrow to even hit 3m at this point.

 

Edit: sorry folks for the confusion.

Edited by keysersoze123
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6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mid day update wednesday

A little ahead of yourself there lol. It’s Tuesday

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3 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

A little ahead of yourself there lol. It’s Tuesday

Oops. I should not have let you know about my time machine 🙂

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