The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[a2k]

What sort of Preview to OW multi is MAL2 aiming for...12-13x?

[Eric Duncan]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

What sort of Preview to OW multi is MAL2 aiming for...12-13x?

I have it a bit more open at 12-14x

[keysersoze123]

18 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Zombieland (T-3)

AMC - 10692/90351(535 shows) + 1793

Cinemark - 4746/72711((678 shows) +1377

 

It had even better than Malficent 2 but its way behind that movie with fewer shows. Unless it has huge acceleration next 2 days could end up below Gemini Man last week which played very well in Imax/PLF in major cities but almost nothing elsewhere.

Zombieland(T-2)

AMC - 12129/91851(535 shows) + 1437

Cinemark - 5474/70919(678 shows) +728

 

At least AMC is showing better increase compared to what I saw for Maleficent. But overall not sensing a big number. Needs huge acceleration to hit Gemini Man numbers at AMC.

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Oops. I should not have let you know about my time machine 🙂

Got you covered, keysersoze123!  👍

 

 

[keysersoze123]

52 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mid day update

Mal 2 ( T-2)

AMC - 15938/159115 +1066

Cinemark - 7505/146820 + 632

 

Not much of an acceleration from yesterday. It needs to explode tomorrow to even hit 3m at this point.

 

Edit: sorry folks for the confusion.

Mal 2(OD)

AMC - 21006/544470 (2796 shows)

Cinemark - 12725/405457 (2841 shows)

 

Since couple of folks were asking about preview to OW multi for Malficent I wanted to look at OD PS to see how it will go. It needs somewhere between 4-5x preview sales for 40-50m OW. It has another half a day of PS plus show count is way higher compared too Previews.

 

I would say with 3m previews, OD is looking like 12m(minus previews) that should ensure low 40's OW.

[Alex SciChannel]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mal 2(OD)

AMC - 21006/544470 (2796 shows)

Cinemark - 12725/405457 (2841 shows)

 

Since couple of folks were asking about preview to OW multi for Malficent I wanted to look at OD PS to see how it will go. It needs somewhere between 4-5x preview sales for 40-50m OW. It has another half a day of PS plus show count is way higher compared too Previews.

 

I would say with 3m previews, OD is looking like 12m(minus previews) that should ensure low 40's OW.

NOOOOOOOO!!! Joker needs its 3rd weekend at number 1. Please Box Office gods smile down upon this request.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

NOOOOOOOO!!! Joker needs its 3rd weekend at number 1. Please Box Office gods smile down upon this request.

That requires Maleficent to bomb. I doubt it goes that low considering the previous movie opened to almost 70m.

[grim22]

28 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

NOOOOOOOO!!! Joker needs its 3rd weekend at number 1. Please Box Office gods smile down upon this request.

You can get that next weekend if Maleficent isn’t well received combined with Halloween mood at the box office.

[DeeCee]

It’s Wednesday. 

[Lighthouse]

Too early for some Jojo Rabbit and The Lighthouse numbers?

[Xftg123]

42 minutes ago, grim22 said:

You can get that next weekend if Maleficent isn’t well received combined with Halloween mood at the box office.

It's either that or something in relation to Joker could cause it to keep it at #1. More on that statement in a moment.

 

Quote

NOOOOOOOO!!! Joker needs its 3rd weekend at number 1. Please Box Office gods smile down upon this request.

 

Joker's been at #1 for 2 weeks since there wasn't a lot last week in terms of competition (Gemini Man and Addams Family). Now that it has competition with Maleficent 2 (+China release for that film) and also Zombieland 2, it'll either end up taking the #2 or 3 spot.

[Xftg123]

Basically what I mean by something Joker related: If something were to happen before Friday this week and involve Joker, then it could be going back to #1. And I don't mean violently, I mean online. This week in Joker-related stuff, there was mainly the Miley Cyrus IG post and Starbucks secret menu item, and that's been it so far.

 

Last week, SNL did the Joker parody with Sesame Street and it was hilariously good. Also there was Hugh Grant talking about the movie (although his experience wasn't pleasant) and also Pete Davidson mentioning it on SNL. So anything social media and all from this week can cause Joker to hit #1. But for now, it's not going to happen. However, the drop wise may not be a whole lot.

Edited October 16, 2019 by Xftg123

[narniadis]

22 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Too early for some Jojo Rabbit and The Lighthouse numbers?

We rarely have any of the limited releases tracked. I dont believe anyone is looking at them currently. 

[Eric Duncan]

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	45	243	10,794	2.25%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 13

Total Seats Added Today: 1,862

Total Seats Sold Today: 24

 

Comp

2.336x of Dora 2 days before release (2.92M)

4,050x of Abominable 2 days before release (2.63M)

1.396x of Addams Family 2 days before release (1.75M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.034x of Lion King 2 days before release (793K)

0.266x of Hobbs & Shaw 2 days before release (1.54M)

 

Very poor Tuesday, with things still pointing to somewhere in the 30s at best. We'll see if walkups save the day

[Eric Duncan]

Zombieland: Double Tap Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	38	342	6,252	5.47%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 7

Total Seats Added Today: 1,346

Total Seats Sold Today: 54

 

Comp

4.560x of Stuber 2 days before release (3.42M)

0.372x of Once Upon 2 days before release (2.16M)

0.179x of It: Chapter Two 2 days before release (1.88M)

0.134x of Joker 2 days before release (1.78M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.375x of Hobbs & Shaw 2 days before release (2.18M)

 

Not as poor, but still arguably poor. But again, maybe walkups will save things. Who knows?

[Eric Duncan]

Terminator: Dark Fate Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	92	8,792	1.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 9

 

Comp

0.135x of It: Chapter Two 16 days before release (1.42M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.574x of Hobbs & Shaw 16 days before release (3.33M)

 

I don't get this movie. Sometimes it just trickles, then it does above-average. At least it makes the experience fun I guess.

[Xftg123]

Huh. Looking at these two, Maleficent 2 just dropped its reviews and it's overall mixed reactions all around. People are saying in regards to the film that the writing is the problem with the movie. I still haven't seen a lot in terms of WOM on the movie but it's been getting a lot of talks WW (especially because of Angelina Jolie). Right now the movie's currently at 50% on RT and it's equally Rotten and Fresh with 28 on each side. So, it'll either end up getting more Fresh reviews than Rotten or it'll end up being Rotten again by the time the movie comes out.

 

As for Zombieland 2, it's definitely getting up there in terms of talk and hype, mostly domestically since the film success is mainly here in the US compared to the Overseas market. The embargo lifts tomorrow for Zombieland 2 so we'll see how it is with the Critics. The first one did extremely well, so the 2nd one could either be on-par or do terribly.

 

[Porthos]

On 10/13/2019 at 10:13 PM, Porthos said:

Three days later...

 

At T-4, Maleficent 2 might have finally stabilized a bit.  It has now sold 527 tickets region wide (+114 tickets in last three days).

 

42.26% of Pika Pika (2.41m) [-0.09m from last check]

36.22% of Aladdin   (2.54m) [+0.08m from last check]

26.21% of It 2          (2.75m) [-0.05m from last check]

 

The traditional lolcheck:

 

81.45% of H&S       (4.72m) [-0.57m from last check]

 

TS4 comps to 2.27m (-0.07m) and TLK comps to 2.36m (+0.02m).  

 

No real change.  Well, a change in that the bleeding has stopped and possibly reversed if Aladdin is a good comp.  So still holding at 2.25m to 2.5m.  Probably on the higher end, I'd say.

 

About to hit crunch time though, so there's still time for it to hit 3m.  Also time for it to backslide if it doesn't take off.

Not exactly taking off in the land of tomatoes...

 

At T-2 Maleficent 2 has now sold 696 tickets region wide (+169 last two days)

 

38.99% of Pika Pika (2.22m) [-0.19m from last check]

36.13% of Aladdin   (2.53m) [-0.01m from last check]

24.69% of It 2          (2.59m) [-0.16m from last check]

 

the lolcheck is still lol-ish as it is dropping like a rock:

 

66.92% of H&S        (3.88m)  [-0.84m from last check]

 

TS4 is at 2.21m (-0.06m) and TLK is at 2.34m (-0.02m)

 

Still converging on 2.25m to 2.5m it appears.  Just not seeing much of a sign of 3m out of Sacramento.  Could just be doing poorly here.  Also could have the wrong comps.  Also could be really walkup based, as if it gets a good percentage of walkups, it'll gain on other films in a hurry.

 

Or it's just destined for 2.5m more or less.  Just have to see.

 

(Won't do a check tomorrow.  Might  do one on Thr night if I remember/feel like it)

[Xftg123]

Be it today or tomorrow, can someone check on how Zombieland 2 and Joker's doing in terms of tickets?

Edited October 16, 2019 by Xftg123

[Manny G]

Where’s everybody???? Any updates on the openers?