The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

Theater report from OG Tracker @WrathOfHan!!!!  

[Xftg123]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

.....On the other hand, this is VERY bad. I'm honestly thinking it could go under 30M

Depends on how it goes throughout the weekend. There are numbers projecting the movie to gross 165 to 175M Worldwide during OW, but it might gross lower?

[keysersoze123]

Quick run for Mal and Zom previews shows at AMC Zom has just caught up to Mal numbers(almost 33k). May be by end of day both these movies can get beyond 40K then preview number could be better than what i posted earlier. Let me confirm this evening.

[TLK]

Anyone remember Dumbo's Thursday preview numbers ?

[Alex SciChannel]

6 minutes ago, TLK said:

Anyone remember Dumbo's Thursday preview numbers ?

2.6

Keep in mind Dumbo is aimed at a much younger demo

Edited October 17, 2019 by Alex SciChannel

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, TLK said:

Anyone remember Dumbo's Thursday preview numbers ?

Dumbo: $2.6m/ 17.7x/ $46m w/e

 

Mal 1: $4.2m / 16.5x  /$69.4m

Nutcracker: .63m / 32.6x / $20.4m

Huntsman 2: $1m / 19.4x /$19.4m

 

[Alex SciChannel]

BTW, does anyone have any presale data for 'The Lighthouse'?

 

It's supposed to have a limited release this weekend and I'm curious on what its opening gross may be.

[Old Spice]

Salt Lake City preview night report for Maleficent and Zombieland, Cinemark Sugarhouse 10, 3:30 local time.

 

Maleficent

Total tix sold- 70/343 20.4 %

 

Comps

37.6% of Pika = $20.4M OW

70.7% of SLOP2 = $33.02

87.5% of Dark Phoenix = $28.7

132% of Addams Family = $39.9

I'm guessing the lackluster reviews won't keep families away this weekend and we'll see something closer to $40 than $30. I'll split the difference between SLOP and Addams and say $36.

 

Zombieland

Total tix sold- 98/304 32.2%

 

Comps

26% of Joker = $25.02M OW

27.4% of IT:2 = $24.91

Sounds about right, but I think this is going to be pretty frontloaded, so I'll say $22-23 OW.

 

Joker is still going strong, but it's down to 7 showtimes from 13 last week and I don't think it can make that up with greater occupancy since the weeknights have been averaging 75-80% so probably looking at a drop in the neighborhood of 45%.

 

 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

49 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

2.6

Keep in mind Dumbo is aimed at a much younger demo

It wasn't really, though...not in trailer presentation...and not in reality, I don't think, of who eventually showed up.

 

Both movies (Dumbo and Maleficient 2) presented dark and dreary trailers...and as 2 Disney films in the wash of a big super, not in the summer...seems like a great comp:)...

[Eric Duncan]

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	48	697	11,144	6.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 387

 

Comp

3.433x of Dora (4.29M)

3.098x of Abominable (2.01M)

2.112x of Addams Family (2.64M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.070x of Lion King (1.61M)

0.332x of Hobbs & Shaw (1.93M)

 

Again, solid final day, especially with things being much more narrow. But I still don't think that preview number is good enough for 40M. The mean of 2.5M would probably translate to about 32.5M using a 13x multiplier. Take out the Dora comp, and it goes down to about 2.05M, and about 26.6M (lower than Alice 2!). Could be wrong on the IM though, but this ain't gonna breakout

[Eric Duncan]

Zombieland: Double Tap Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	45	1,013	6,742	15.03%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 7

Total Seats Added Today: 490

Total Seats Sold Today: 569

 

Comp

2.361x of Crawl (2.36M)
4.036x of Stuber (3.03M)
0.533x of Once Upon (3.09M)
1.556x of Scary Stories (3.62M)
1.443x of Good Boys (3.03M)
0.292x of It: Chapter Two (3.07M)
0.206x of Joker (2.74M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.509x of Hobbs & Shaw (2.95M)
 

This was a fantastic way to end the run. It even got one of its showtimes sold out. With the previews all gravitating toward 3M, it also bodes well. It might even beat out Maleficent this weekend with these numbers, which would be pretty funny ngl

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

Not sure about the Maleficent IM, you can spin it a great many ways. Aladdin this year was 12.8x with a boosted Sunday, but with much larger previews and being in May. Dumbo has 17 with possible spring break loading. I would settle in the 15 range given October 

[Eric Duncan]

6 minutes ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

Not sure about the Maleficent IM, you can spin it a great many ways. Aladdin this year was 12.8x with a boosted Sunday, but with much larger previews and being in May. Dumbo has 17 with possible spring break loading. I would settle in the 15 range given October 

That is a good point. I was kind of basing it off Toy Story 4. It was another Disney sequel with a fanbase, but not one that would strongly frontload the film, and since TS4 was in summer, just boost it up from 10x to 13x, and you've got it. Admittedly, it's kind of a challenge to really judge the IM on this one, since there are so few, if any September/October PG films, particularly from Disney, to use as a reference for previews this high.

[Lighthouse]

Good luck The Lighthouse ; (

[Lighthouse]

Hopefully for

Joker > Zombieland > Maleficent

The Lighthouse > Jojo Rabbit

This week

[Alex SciChannel]

5 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Good luck The Lighthouse ; (

Wait, what happened to The Lighthouse?

[DAJK]

6 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Hopefully for

Joker > Zombieland > Maleficent

The Lighthouse > Jojo Rabbit

This week

Jojo Rabbit > Joker

[Lighthouse]

11 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Wait, what happened to The Lighthouse?

Nothing, Just wishing good luck. lol

 

Also, they need to stop with the free screenings already, it will affect the opening numbers

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/16/2019 at 3:54 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24
3D:
7:30 PM	25	48
10:20 PM	4	48
Dolby:
7:00 PM	28	217
9:50 PM	3	217
2D:
7:00 PM	26	158
9:00 PM	0	48
10:05 PM	3	158
Total	89	894
AMC Highlands 24
Dolby:
7:00 PM	8	210
IMAX:
7:30 PM	7	384
3D:
7:45 PM	0	52
2D:
7:00 PM	0	159
8:30 PM	0	45
Total	15	850

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
272	73	5482	4.96%	9	38

 

Showings added: 9

Seats added: 1417

 

Lion King comp: 1.22M

Addams Family comp: 2.96M

Abominable comp: 2.81M

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24
3D:
7:30 PM	25	48
10:20 PM	2	48
Dolby:
7:00 PM	63	217
9:50 PM	5	217
2D:
7:00 PM	28	158
9:00 PM	2	48
10:05 PM	3	158
Total	128	894
AMC Highlands 24
Dolby:
7:00 PM	41	210
IMAX:
7:30 PM	29	384
3D:
7:45 PM	3	52
2D:
7:00 PM	41	159
8:30 PM	9	45
Total	123	850

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
811	539	5482	14.79%	9	38

 

Lion King comp: 2.46M

Addams Family comp: 2.35M

Abominable comp: 2.26M

 

Looks pretty solid here. Almost tripled from yesterday. I'll go with slightly below the Addams Family comp, 2.3M.

[Porthos]

On 10/15/2019 at 10:45 PM, Porthos said:

Not exactly taking off in the land of tomatoes...

 

At T-2 Maleficent 2 has now sold 696 tickets region wide (+169 last two days)

 

38.99% of Pika Pika (2.22m) [-0.19m from last check]

36.13% of Aladdin   (2.53m) [-0.01m from last check]

24.69% of It 2          (2.59m) [-0.16m from last check]

 

the lolcheck is still lol-ish as it is dropping like a rock:

 

66.92% of H&S        (3.88m)  [-0.84m from last check]

 

TS4 is at 2.21m (-0.06m) and TLK is at 2.34m (-0.02m)

 

Still converging on 2.25m to 2.5m it appears.  Just not seeing much of a sign of 3m out of Sacramento.  Could just be doing poorly here.  Also could have the wrong comps.  Also could be really walkup based, as if it gets a good percentage of walkups, it'll gain on other films in a hurry.

 

Or it's just destined for 2.5m more or less.  Just have to see.

 

(Won't do a check tomorrow.  Might  do one on Thr night if I remember/feel like it)

Decided to do one final check.  Not up to my rigorous standards, but close enough.

 

Just now (5:30 to 5:55) Maleficent 2 had sold 1450 tickets region wide (+754 since Tue)

 

46.83% of Pika Pika [3:30-4:00] (2.67m) [+0.45m]

37.18% of Aladdin   [5:00-5:30] (2.60m) [+0.07m]

25.62% of It 2         [4:00-5:00] (2.69m) [+0.10m]

47.20% of H&S        [5:40-6:15] (2.73m) [-1.15m]

21.62% of TS4        [4:30-5:30] (2.59m) [+0.38m]

13.21% of TLK        [4:30-5:45] (3.04m) [+0.70m]

 

TLK is outlier city, IMO.  Slight issue with final comps at different times, but I think 2.6m to 2.7m sounds about right.  I'd say 2.65m, but it's very rarely put in that precisely.  @captainwondyful, put me down for 2.6m if you're making an official chart.

 

Nice amount of walkups, and better than it looked earlier in the week.  Was pleasantly surprised to see that there were some near sellouts at the busiest places, so maybe 3m as an upper bound, if the walkups continue.  But I don't see it getting much higher than that.  Could be wrong though, as this is something of a quick-n-dirty check.

Edited October 18, 2019 by Porthos