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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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On 10/16/2019 at 4:18 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Zombieland: Double Tap Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24    
Prime:    
7:00 PM 79 187
10:10 PM 18 187
2D:    
7:00 PM 48 94
7:45 PM 1 36
8:30 PM 0 56
9:40 PM 19 94
     
Total 165 654
AMC Highlands 24    
2D:    
7:00 PM 11 85
8:00 PM 9 85
     
Total 20 170

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
457 170 3907 11.70% 9 26

 

Showings added: 6

Seats added: 510

 

Gemini Man comp: 3.97M

Rambo comp: 5.45M

Hustlers comp: 3.44M

Hobbs comp: 2.94M

 

It seems to be following a slightly better version of Hustlers' trajectory at this point.

Zombieland: Double Tap Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24    
Prime:    
7:00 PM 120 187
10:10 PM 49 187
2D:    
7:00 PM 54 94
7:45 PM 23 36
8:30 PM 31 56
9:40 PM 33 94
     
Total 310 654
AMC Highlands 24    
2D:    
7:00 PM 60 85
8:00 PM 53 85
     
Total 113 170

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
1373 916 5341 25.71% 9 31

 

Showings added: 5

Seats added: 1434

 

Gemini Man comp: 4.08M

Rambo comp: 3.79M

Hustlers comp: 4.06M

Hobbs comp: 3.88M

IT 2 comp: 3.71M

Adjusted OUATiH comp: 4.11M

Lion King comp: 4.16M

 

This is really interesting... It is probably overperforming here but I'm quite amazed by its sales. But maybe we're sitting on a sleeper hit. This is probably a bad choice, but I'll go bold here. 3.8M

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I think that Zombieland 2 might have the bigger preview numbers than Maleficent 2. By the time the weekend hits, then Maleficent 2 will definitely dominate compared to Zombieland 2.

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Funny thing is how a few days ago, I stated this in Reddit's Box Office thread regarding Joker and the billion dollar club:

 

Quote

Currently with Joker and the possibility of it being a billion, and without China, it's at a 50/50 chance of it happening. It would need at least 456M or more in order to make it to 1B.

Yeah, subtracting 1B from the current WW total, it now needs 393M or more. At this point, if all does well next week and during Halloween week, it's going to surpass those numbers.

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Terminator: Dark Fate Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 36 98 8,792

1.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2

 

Comp

0.132x of It: Chapter Two 14 days before release (1.38M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.508x of Hobbs & Shaw 14 days before release (2.95M)

 

SNORE

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Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [6:35pm - 7:00pm]

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats Sold

Total Seats

Seats Left

Perct Sold

TOTALS

1

83

2516

19965

17449

12.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day: 707

Total Sellouts Added Since Mid-Day: 1

Total Shows Removed Since Mid-Day: 1

Total Seats Removed Since Mid-Day: 256

 

Final Comps:

 

Time

   %

 

Sold Since Mid Day

Total Sold

 

Sellouts / Shows

Seats Left / Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

Hustlers

6:00-6:40

121.25

 

609

2075

 

0/60

8683/10758

19.29%

 

3.03m

Abominable

5:20-5:45

398.10

 

240

632

 

0/79

13268/13900

4.55%

 

2.59m

 

===

 

Comps slowed down a little but pretty good walk-ups through now nonetheless. I'll go with a $2.6M Thursday guess +/-$100K.

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Previews Update

Zombieland

AMC- 41405/136454 (886 shows)

Cin - 27808/85330(1017 shows)

 

Mal 2

AMC -  40347/207294(1101 shows)

Cin - 31733/193916(1640 shows)

 

Good growth for both the movies but Zombieland is more impressive considering how much behind it was as late as yesterday. Its going to shoot past final Maleficent numbers and Average ticket price will also be higher. This is with lot fewer shows.

 

Prediction - Based on numbers above both the movies should finish like 0.5m difference. So I would say 3m Zombieland and 2.5m Maleficent. But I would look at comps from others to make closer prediction.

 

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14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 

Seems like it oughta be bigger than that. Everyone over 30 has seen The Shining. Then again, releasing a horror movie AFTER Halloween is an odd choice. 

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v Finale Sales Comps
Movie Sold % Est
Southern Maine Cinemagic
Maleficent  54 -- --
Aladdin 121 44.63% 3.12M
Toy Story 4 558 9.68% 1.16M
The Lion King 561 9.62% 2.21M
Average: 2.16M
Zombieland 83 -- --
John Wick 3 186 44.62% 2.63M
Thorykie AU 109 76.15% 2.36M
Hobbs & Shaw 146 56.85% 3.30M
Average: 2.76M
v Finale Sales Comps
Lincoln Square 13
Maleficent 376 -- --
Aladdin 836 44.98% 3.15M
Toy Story 4 1273 29.54% 3.54M
The Lion King 2483 15.14% 3.48M
Average: 3.39M
Zombieland 241 -- --
John Wick 3 675 35.70% 2.11M
Hobbs & Shaw 525 45.90% 2.66M
Average: 2.39M

 

 

Everything's looking pretty uniform at both of the theaters.  Lincoln Square's coming in higher on Maleficent, but that's par for the course.  The Uniformity of the comps is what impressed me the most.  I think 3M should be the goal for the film.

 

Zombieland looks to be in the high 2s . 

 

I think 2.5M should be the floor for both films.  Should be a fun race this weekend to #1.

 

Couple other numbers I don't have comps for:

 

Thursday Sales
Movie Sold Total %
Lincoln Square 13
JoJo Rabbit 395 724 54.55%
Lighthouse 674 1030 65.44%
AMC 25
Zombieland 339 766 44.25%
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7 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Seems like it oughta be bigger than that. Everyone over 30 has seen The Shining. Then again, releasing a horror movie AFTER Halloween is an odd choice. 

It's having early screenings on October 30. I dunno, feels like it falls under the same category as Blade Runner 2049, another decades later sequel to a movie that didn't achieve classic status until years after it was originally released when it was rather slept on. A similar run would hardly be surprising imo.

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7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mal 2 OD PS (thursday afternoon update)
AMC - 36202/653607 (3561 shows)
Cin - 23206/425392 (3110 shows)

 

Very good boost across both the chains. Could hit double digits OD even with low 2m previews.

 

Mal 2 OD

AMC - 45623/643887 (3561 shows) PS Final
Cin - 30083/419069(3114 shows) PS Final

 

 

I think this is good. I am thinking 250K-300K tickets between these 2 chains. That should translate to 3m from these chains which should be 9-10m true friday.

 

 

 

Edited by keysersoze123
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7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Zom OD (Thursday Mid day update
AMC - 22528/422540 (2665 shows)

Cin -    12344/285376(2525 shows)

 

Very good increase from yesterday especially in AMC. Still this wont be as backloaded as Maleficent and so I am not sensing more than 25m this weekend.

Zom OD PS

AMC - 29050/414198 (2665 shows)
Cin - 16269/282064(2536 shows)

 

40% below Mal 2 for OD PS. I am thinking even with better walk ins this will barely hit 10m with previews. Still looking at mid 20's OW at best.

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Alrighty I'm back from class and the late shows have started. Time for some analysis here.

 

Maleficent:

IMAX - 69 tickets tonight

192% Gemini Man Imax (3.06M)

108% MIB Imax (3.34M)

42% Dark Phoenix Imax (2.1M)

23% Aladdin Imax (2.22M)

45% Dumbo Imax (1.16M)

 

Regular - 62 tickets sold tonight

141% Gemini Man - (2.25M)

34% Aladdin - (2.38M)

77% Dumbo - (2M)

188% Grinch - (4.13M)

 

Comps seem sorta all over the place, but converging around the low-to-mid 2M or so. Some of the IMAX comps make me want to go up a bit, but I'm going to be apprehensive given the comps to Aladdin and Dumbo. Put me down for 2.65M (though my range would be like 2.2-3M). 

 

 

 

Zombieland:

(no IMAX) Regular - 123 tickets sold tonight

279% Gemini Man (4.47M)

286% Rambo (3.71M)

123% Hustlers (3.08M)

75% John Wick Three (4.45M)

155% Pet Sematary (3.58M)

112% Glass (4.13M)

78% Bohemian Rhapsody (3.04M)

 

Clearly an overperformance, but every single comp on this one says it's going over 3M. While I don't buy the ones that go as high as 4.5, I really do think this could surprise (hopefully). If anyone remembers, BR massively overperformed here, and that's the lowest comp, so if my data were anything to go by, I'd put 3M as the floor. But because I do think (given the absurdity of some of these comps) that this indicates another overperformance, put me down for 3.2M @captainwondyful (but the range from this data is pretty much 3-4.5M). 

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Based on these numbers so far I'm now thinking Joker has a great chance to three-peat, whereas before today I had Maleficent doing around $45M to win the weekend. I think both J and M will end up being neck and neck. 

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2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I think both J and M will end up being neck and neck. 

Agreed.

 

Overall, I think the next three days are going to look like this:

 

-Zombieland 2: Domestic

 

-Joker + Maleficent 2: Domestic & Overseas

 

I am curious to see how things will go during Halloween week, seeing how not only these three films are out, but also Addams Family as well. All of them are for different demographics and also can cause a potential boost for any of them.

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5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Mal2 should have a bigger internal multi than Zombie 2.  Looking at Friday shows I don't think it's even going to be close.

What kind of multi would you guess for Maleficent off $3M previews?

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