The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[FlashMaster659]

Just so you all know, I'm going to be doing my TROS updates in the mornings. However, the timestamps of the checks themselves will still be at night like usual.

[cdsacken]

Scar was like the one good thing about TLK live action. Ok I loved timone too.

Edited October 18, 2019 by cdsacken

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

TROS is finally nigh and Frozen 2 is going to be just around the corner. It’s going to be a good 4th quarter for tracking.

 

Well THIS proved to be prescient:

 

On 7/22/2019 at 11:10 AM, Porthos said:

Speaking of this list, I realized recently that there is a non-zero percent chance that I'll be tracking

 

Frozen 2

Jumanji 3

SW:TROS

 

All.  At.  The. Same. Time.

 

Frozen 2 and TROS are (and were) a given, IMO.  Unless Disney decides to ape the Endgame strategy and try to goose sales by creating a frenzy three plus weeks before release, I reckon TROS will go on sale sometime in mid Oct like TFA and TLJ.  But I absolutely think there will be overlap between Jumanji and Frozen.  

 

Sure am looking forward to tracking 150+ shows for TROS (early slate, not final), 250+ shows for Frozen (final) and 90+ shows for Jumanji 3 (mid run slate) at the same time! 👍

 

Good going past me!  Sure am glad I figured out that way to speed up manual counts on Fandango seat maps.  Gonna come in real handy on those days.

Edited October 18, 2019 by Porthos

[Xftg123]

It's kinda funny how The Lion King 2019 brought back James Earl Jones as Mufasa yet they couldn't bring back Jeremy Irons for Scar.

[FlashMaster659]

In terms of comparing TROS to A:EG, could TROS (despite SW typically being more frontloaded in pre-sales) have a slightly better 1st PS day -> final seat count multiplier considering how out-of-this-world EG's first day was?

Edited October 19, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[FlashMaster659]

The IMAXs have yet to be posted but the Ontario Palace just put up their slate and they have 18 Thursday night shows for TROS, which if I'm not mistaken is the most they've ever put up for any film this far out.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

In terms of comparing TROS to A:EG, could TROS (despite SW typically being more frontloaded in pre-sales) have a slightly better 1st PS day -> final seat count multiplier considering how out-of-this-world EG's first day was?

I think the nearly two month window is the biggest factor, personally.  There's also the minor consideration of tickets (probably) dropping at 8pm EDT/5pm PDT so a true "one day" comparison is gonna be tough with something that dropped at 8am EDT/5am PDT.

 

As it is, I have zero data for TFA and TLJ at the starts of their run.  I have some sellout/percentage data for TLJ's last week of pre-sales buried deeeeeeply in this thread, for what it's worth.  But nothing at the seat level, unfortunately (I started doing that on Black Panther's run).

 

But what I do have:

 

IW:      4662 | 13164 | 35.41% of sales | 42 days of pre-sales

Solo:   2630 |   5789 | 45.43% of sales | 21 days of pre-sales

--- (more theaters tracked below this line)

CM:    1498  | 10553 | 14.20% of sales | 59 days of pre-sales

EG:    14975 | 26655 | 56.18% of sales | 24 days of pre-sales

 

Looking at it, imma gonna go with "yes".  Even Solo, which never really took off at the end still had a stronger first day of sales to final count ratio than Endgame.  That's 1) how insane EG's first day was and 2) how many tickets had to be bought beyond opening night.

 

Now, both Solo and Captain Marvel had a few hours of sales in the previous day that I rolled over into "day 1", but that would just make the percentage even lower if they were accounted for or some sort of "true 24 hour period" was established.  Likewise, the percentages of both IW and EG would go up, as those are around 18 hours or so of sales.

[Porthos]

33 minutes ago, Porthos said:

As it is, I have zero data for TFA and TLJ at the starts of their run.  I have some sellout/percentage data for TLJ's last week of pre-sales buried deeeeeeply in this thread, for what it's worth.

I do want to point out something, actually.  I've been observing in Sacramento at least, that pre-sale showtimes have gotten nutbar insane this past year.

 

This is TLJ four days before release, locally:

 

On 12/10/2017 at 8:20 PM, Porthos said:

GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT REPORT: T-4 days

 

Previews: 36/133 (+2/+0) [R1: 9/107 showings]

(Includes Double Feature & Opening Night Fan Event)

 

2D: 29/89 (+1/+0) [R1: 7/71]

3D: 7/44 (+1/+0)   [R1: 2/36]

 

<>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

11 (nc) [R1: 5]

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

4 (-2) [R1: 4]

 

Front Two Rows Only (or the equivalent amount of seats)

30 (nc) [R1: 21]

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

2 (+1) [R1: 0]

 

NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

36 sellouts! That's a lot.

 

133 showtimes though. 

 

I already have 121 133 showtimes locally up for TROS and that's with a couple of theaters not reporting yet.

 

If I normalize for one of the theaters that opened in the last couple of years (Regal Delta Shores [the other new  one in town doesn't have it's TROS showings up yet]), it's still already at 115 127 showings.  And as I said, I have one theater that hasn't put up showtimes yet that was around when TLJ bowed.

 

Well, what about opening night?

 

On 12/14/2017 at 3:47 PM, Porthos said:

GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT REPORT: PREMIERE NIGHT - FINAL REPORT

(sellouts for THIS REPORT ONLY includes ALL theaters with six or less seats left)

 

Previews: 73/163 (+23/+0) [R1: 35/144 showings]

(Includes Double Feature & Opening Night Fan Event)

 

2D: 57/115 (+18/+7) [R1: 31/98]

3D: 16/48 (+5/+0)   [R1: 4/46]

 

<>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

2 (-5) [R1: 1]

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

9 (-2) [R1: 6]

 

Front Two Rows Only (or the equivalent amount of seats)

21 (-5) [R1: 8]

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

0 (nc) [R1: 1]

 

NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

 

===

 

For historical purposes:

 

Friday/Saturday/Sunday Sellout Count

 

<<>>
 

Fri: 10/285 
Sat: 5/288
Sun: 1/288

That's right.  163 showings.

 

Given how many showtimes were given to films like Captain Marvel (216), Endgame (347), The Lion King (289), and even It Chapter 2 (236), I'm going to take the over on 163 showtimes for TROS, even when adjusted for various new theaters.

 

What this does to the sellout count, or indeed an preview to OW multiplier, I have no idea.  But I reckon there probably won't be 70 sellouts locally simply because of so many more showtimes being available.

Edited October 19, 2019 by Porthos
One of the outstanding theaters reported in, edited to reflect new numbers

[Xftg123]

Domestically, what will the number of ticket sales translate to for TROS?

 

Here were the numbers for the previous films:

 

-Force Awakens: 108M

 

-Rogue One: 60M

 

-Last Jedi: 67M

 

-Solo: 22M

 

The other crazy thing I've realized too is how far down the domestic total has gone from between the last two movies:

 

-Force Awakens: 936M

 

-Last Jedi: 620M

 

Drop: -316M

 

TROS is going to the final Star Wars film, JJ Abrams is back to direct, but ever since the Last Jedi divided fans and Solo came, I honestly have no idea where this will end up at.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Well, what about opening night?

 

That's right.  163 showings.

 

Given how many showtimes were given to films like Captain Marvel (216), Endgame (347), The Lion King (289), and even It Chapter 2 (236), I'm going to take the over on 163 showtimes for TROS, even when adjusted for various new theaters.

 

What this does to the sellout count, or indeed an preview to OW multiplier, I have no idea.  But I reckon there probably won't be 70 sellouts locally simply because of so many more showtimes being available.

 

Are any of these theaters seasonally affected? TROS should be in the 300 range, if not. 

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Are any of these theaters seasonally affected? TROS should be in the 300 range, if not. 

Nope (the local drive-in has room for more showings if anything).  Well, only in the sense that there's a lot more competition in the holiday time area.  That's one of the reasons why It 2 got silly showtimes and even to an extent TLK (with all of the June and July films bombing left and right).

 

And there is that point.  Prior to this year, the most showtimes I had locally for preview night was for IW at 182.  Nothing else really came close in 2018 (aside from DP2 at 169).

 

So I am curious about the competition angle.  Cats is opening directly against it.  Laugh if you will, but that's gonna take some screens.  Jumanji 3 will be in its second week.  Who knows what all the November holdovers will be doing.  Be interesting to see how the screens are all managed.

 

Personally I might set my over/under at 250 or 275.  If only because of Xmas time.  Probably won't have a great sense for that for a while though.

 

....

 

Then there is the possibility of a yet another new theatre opening in town that I've been alluding to off and on.  Don't know if they're gonna hit December or not though, as the construction seems really slow.  So there is that wildcard as well.  

 

[Eric Duncan]

Terminator: Dark Fate Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	106	8,792	1.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 8

 

Comp

0.136x of It: Chapter Two 13 days before release (1.43M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.489x of Hobbs & Shaw 13 days before release (2.84M)

[Brainbug]

1 hour ago, Xftg123 said:

Domestically, what will the number of ticket sales translate to for TROS?

 

Here were the numbers for the previous films:

 

-Force Awakens: 108M

 

-Rogue One: 60M

 

-Last Jedi: 67M

 

-Solo: 22M

 

The other crazy thing I've realized too is how far down the domestic total has gone from between the last two movies:

 

-Force Awakens: 936M

 

-Last Jedi: 620M

 

Drop: -316M

 

TROS is going to the final Star Wars film, JJ Abrams is back to direct, but ever since the Last Jedi divided fans and Solo came, I honestly have no idea where this will end up at.

 

Side note: BOM's ticket sold calculator is incredibly inaccurate and gives at most a very general idea.

 

But besides that, i think its kind of impossible to predict ROS's gross with even a hunch of certainty. We just dont know how or in which way Last Jedi, Solo, Disney/SW "fatigue" and everything else will impact it or not. Its one of those films where we just have to simplay wait for the numbers to arrive. Though i think we can say that in order to be seen as an undoubted success, it will need to match Last Jedis total atleast in the US.

[Inceptionzq]

112 showings in 6 theaters so far

[Inceptionzq]

Do showings stop counting for Thursday previews at 6AM?

[FlashMaster659]

3 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Do showings stop counting for Thursday previews at 6AM?

Yeah 6 AM is when true Friday begins

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Yeah 6 AM is when true Friday begins

Funnily enough, the TrueIMAX theater in town is having a 6am Fri showing.

 

(It only has the one screen, so that does tend to limit its showtimes)

[Cap]

Well, it’s official for me. Just got the Atom Alert. 
 

Cinemagic showing only nine showings, two in IMAX, seven in standard, with one theater not reporting in yet. It is the same amount as Toy Story 4 and The Lion King, but less than Avengers Endgame, which started out with 11 from those two theaters. 
 

Lincoln Square isn’t loaded on the app yet. Website says 11 showings + 1 fan event. Yet all the showings Start at like 9pm, so I am gonna assume it’s more like 14 - 17. Avengers started with 22

[TwoMisfits]

My local Cinemark is NOT really giving Star Wars a big opening set.  It gets a normal supers set of 4 screens Thursday night (for 8 showings) and 2.8 screens Friday (14 showings).  I think with Jumanji and Cats (and Frozen 2 still around), they are taking a "wait for presales to materialize before fully giving over the whole theater" approach - I mean, Thursday night is fine, but Friday is a pretty low starting set:)...

[Inceptionzq]

Looks like all my theaters have put up their slates for when tickets drop.

 

166 showings across 9 theaters.

 

I wish I had Endgame to compare to, but FWIW, The Lion King ended with 165 showings.