The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Duncan]

6 minutes ago, Firepower said:

I hope no one here seriously expects Endgame OW? It'll be extremely front-loaded. Don't forget about those headlines "Solo surpassed Black Panther pre-sales" and stuff like that.

Nobody is expecting that, so...

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

My oh my:

https://www.slashfilm.com/solo-a-star-wars-story-ticket-sales/

The ticket presales for Solo: A Star Wars Story show why the box office tracking for the spin-off is projecting a record-setting Memorial Day weekend with a possible haul of $170 million.

 

Considering that:

https://ew.com/movies/2018/01/31/black-panther-superhero-presale-record/

 

I would imagine that not only the pre-sales/total are much heavier on the Star Wars franchise, but that they are first 24 hours frontloaded as well yes.

Agreeing greatly here - the Star Wars uber-fans are hardcore.  They buy instantly and often...and you see the size of it (and the respective movie subscriber sites) last night.  Now, we're in the long haul.  If this dies down to trickles for the next few weeks, I wouldn't expect a big showings/screens bump going into the week of release (a bump on par with TLJ/TFA/Endgame)...but if it stays high, you'll see the screen bump.

 

This is a long way of saying that yesterday was expected and necessary for Star War's future BO success...but the next few weeks might be even more so to see where this move might end up...

 

 

[keysersoze123]

Can we avoid any endgame vs SW9 posts except those comparing apples to apples data (Like  @captainwondyfuldid with her Lincoln Square data). Let us keep this thread clean discussing only PS data. Its annoying to see posts from members who only come to this thread to make snide remarks. There is franchise wars thread for all that stuff.

[Menor the Destroyer]

41 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

AMC - 187398/722656(4275 shows)

ok 1st successful run for AMC I got data for 4275 out of 4313 shows. That is a good sample set. Let me check for OD as well. it has good sales into the weekend at this point. I will also refresh to see any new shows added.

 

Also I see Empire 25 has non reserved 2d shows. That is the 1st I have seen for the theater. My data is just for reserved screens. As I said earlier, I hope to get more data by end of weekend around region split and PLF share.

 

Edit: So how big is this number. Its 40% ahead of Joker previews on Thursday night. I will update end of day to see where its gonna end. But I am optimistic about 1M+ sales at just AMC for just previews. Early guess is at least 50m in previews. I would like the show time to double before have greater perspective on the number.

Let's say it hits 230k by 24 hr mark, using your data from OD overall sales would be about 500k probably. Using $13+ ATP that will be $6.5 million+ at AMC. Well below TFA but above IW by a good margin.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Can we avoid any endgame vs SW9 posts except those comparing apples to apples data (Like  @captainwondyfuldid with her Lincoln Square data). Let us keep this thread clean discussing only PS data. Its annoying to see posts from members who only come to this thread to make snide remarks. There is franchise wars thread for all that stuff.

That's also what the report button is for.  

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

That's also what the report button is for.  

 

Its debatable if it breaks the rule of the forum. We need a Mod to set rules. But I add those posters to ignore list. That is within my control.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Let's say it hits 230k by 24 hr mark, using your data from OD overall sales would be about 500k probably. Using $13+ ATP that will be $6.5 million+ at AMC. Well below TFA but above IW by a good margin.

you could be right. Let me confirm end of the day where things stand. I plan to run at least till christmas.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Rise of Skywalker Thursday and Friday (as of noon ET):

 

Thursday:

Theaters: 280 (+2)

Showings: 2734 (+35)

Sold Out Showings: 57 (+3)

Tickets Sold: 120654 (+11452 since last night) (63% of Avengers: Endgame day 1 (est))

Tickets Available: 395025 (+6206)

Estimated ATP: 13.18 (+0.01)

Estimated Sales: 1589599 (+151187)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 11.9 million (+1.1 million)

 

Friday:

Theaters: 281

Showings: 4304

Sold Out Showings: 37

Tickets Sold: 67266 (making some eyeball estimates, probably about 35-40% of Endgame)

Tickets Available: 667625

Estimated ATP: 12.34

Estimated Total Sales: 819482

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 6.1 million 

 

From this, total nationwide sales might be in the 24-25 million range. 

 

Edit: upped my multipliers based on the ones for Joker

 

 

 

 

Edited October 22, 2019 by Menor

[TalismanRing]

This weeks anemic openers at my NYC Local . I can't even be bothered to cut and paste a chart b/c it means opening another browser. 😛

 

Black & Blue           19/410    (4pm)                        7pm
Countdown            15/511    (4pm)                        7pm

 

I'm waiting for 24 hours of sales to post SW again

 

[SoSaysI]

30 minutes ago, Menor said:

Rise of Skywalker Thursday and Friday (as of noon ET):

 

Thursday:

Theaters: 280 (+2)

Showings: 2734 (+35)

Sold Out Showings: 57 (+3)

Tickets Sold: 120654 (+11452 since last night) (63% of Avengers: Endgame day 1 (est))

Tickets Available: 395025 (+6206)

Estimated ATP: 13.18 (+0.01)

Estimated Sales: 1589599 (+151187)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 11.9 million (+1.1 million)

 

Friday:

Theaters: 281

Showings: 4304

Sold Out Showings: 37

Tickets Sold: 67266 (making some eyeball estimates, probably about 35-40% of Endgame)

Tickets Available: 667625

Estimated ATP: 12.34

Estimated Total Sales: 819482

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 6.1 million 

 

From this, total nationwide sales might be in the 24-25 million range. 

 

Edit: upped my multipliers based on the ones for Joker

 

 

 

 

The 63% is to Endgame's total Day 1 total right?  If so that seems pretty good with about 8 hours left (from noon est) for TROS's opening day sales.

[Cap]

Bit a bookkeeping.  Thanks to @keysersoze123 I was able to figure out the SOLD OUT Lincoln Square 13 numbers.  I'm going to assume they are real until they change.  So it now stands at:

 

LS13 - STAR WARS - First Day Sales
Movie	Sold	%	Estimate
Endgame	4665	90.78%	54.46M
Star Wars TROS	4235	--	--
Joker	1082	391.40%	52.05M
Lion King	1002	422.65%	97.21M

 

Okay, so I just ran the Cinemagic Numbers for Star Wars.

 

Fist Day Sales SM Cinemagic
Endgame	1138	72.93%	43.76M
Star Wars TROS	830	--	--

 

 

I have no comps for them, but I decided to add two of the four other Cinemagic Theaters.  (The other two don't do reserve seating).

 

They stand at:

 

CM Hooksett
IMAX 6:00PM	143	143
IMAX 9:30PM	132	143
6:30 PM	110	139
7:00 PM	98	139
7:30 PM	40	65
8:00 PM	42	65
10:00 PM	57	139
Total	622	833
CM Merimack
6:00 PM	168	267
6:30 PM	79	148
7:00 PM	114	267
7:30 PM	79	148
9:15 PM	79	267
9:45 PM	3	148
10:15 PM	9	267
Total	531	1512

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, SoSaysI said:

The 63% is to Endgame's total Day 1 total right?  If so that seems pretty good with about 8 hours left (from noon est) for TROS's opening day sales.

~16 hour total, so the same hourly times for both. But that's an estimated value based on @Porthos ratios as I don't have data until a few days later.

[FlashMaster659]

4 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Bit a bookkeeping.  Thanks to @keysersoze123 I was able to figure out the SOLD OUT Lincoln Square 13 numbers.  I'm going to assume they are real until they change.  So it now stands at:

 

LS13 - STAR WARS - First Day Sales
Movie	Sold	%	Estimate
Endgame	4665	90.78%	54.46M
Star Wars TROS	4235	--	--
Joker	1082	391.40%	52.05M
Lion King	1002	422.65%	97.21M

 

Okay, so I just ran the Cinemagic Numbers for Star Wars.

 

Fist Day Sales SM Cinemagic
Endgame	1138	72.93%	43.76M
Star Wars TROS	830	--	--

 

 

I have no comps for them, but I decided to add two of the four other Cinemagic Theaters.  (The other two don't do reserve seating).

 

They stand at:

 

CM Hooksett
IMAX 6:00PM	143	143
IMAX 9:30PM	132	143
6:30 PM	110	139
7:00 PM	98	139
7:30 PM	40	65
8:00 PM	42	65
10:00 PM	57	139
Total	622	833
CM Merimack
6:00 PM	168	267
6:30 PM	79	148
7:00 PM	114	267
7:30 PM	79	148
9:15 PM	79	267
9:45 PM	3	148
10:15 PM	9	267
Total	531	1512

I don't think they're real unfortunately. Usually a bunch of repeat shows that show up as sold out aren't real and eventually get taken down.

Edited October 22, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

I don't think they're real unfortunately. Usually a bunch of repeat shows that show up as sold out aren't real and eventually get taken down.

You never know. But I was able to retrieve the seat map for the show and all the seats are marked as sold. Still one can never say for sure.

[Cap]

10 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

I don't think they're real unfortunately. Usually a bunch of repeat shows that show up as sold out aren't real and eventually get taken down.

It's honestly driving me crazy.  The standard showings start at 8:30PM, so it WOULD make sense to have seven showings between 6PM and 7PM.  The problem is that unless they sold out ALL of the wheelchair spots, the shows would show up as available to buy tickets for.  

 

So I feel like damned if I do, damned if I don't.

 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, captainwondyful said:

It's honestly driving me crazy.  The standard showings start at 8:30PM, so it WOULD make sense to have seven showings between 6PM and 7PM.  The problem is that unless they sold out ALL of the wheelchair spots, the shows would show up as available to buy tickets for.  

 

So I feel like damned if I do, damned if I don't.

 

It could also be a bulk booking. This movie will have bunch of those. Where a corporate or otherwise block the whole show.

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

It's honestly driving me crazy.  The standard showings start at 8:30PM, so it WOULD make sense to have seven showings between 6PM and 7PM.  The problem is that unless they sold out ALL of the wheelchair spots, the shows would show up as available to buy tickets for.  

 

So I feel like damned if I do, damned if I don't.

 

In this case I can believe its a sellout. Even shows after 830PM have near sellout including 9PM 3D show(which has couple of wheel chair seats available). Even the 1030PM 2d show is fast filling up.All the sold out shows are between 6PM to 730PM.

[FlashMaster659]

7 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

It's honestly driving me crazy.  The standard showings start at 8:30PM, so it WOULD make sense to have seven showings between 6PM and 7PM.  The problem is that unless they sold out ALL of the wheelchair spots, the shows would show up as available to buy tickets for.  

 

So I feel like damned if I do, damned if I don't.

 

Speaking of the 8:30 show, that one is about to sell out along with the 9:30 one so if they are real, they would plausibly be sellouts are very close to it. I'd say looking at how shows in a close time proximity to the sellouts are doing is the best way of knowing whether sellouts are real or not.

[Old Spice]

Meanwhile, back in Gotham...

 

Joker picking up additional showtimes at Sugarhouse this weekend with Gemini and Astra leaving, and Zombieland losing a single showing. Up two to 9 each day. If this is being mirrored in other markets, could be looking at a nice hold heading into Halloween.

[Inceptionzq]

17 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

 

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1241

3153

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1497

4170

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 5 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5552	5552	20329	27.31%	9	166

 

To spare us from a super long post, I'll only be putting the totals of the two theaters I show. 

 

I don't know how good this really is, but FWIW, it is ahead of TLK on the day before previews. Which was at 5111 tickets sold.

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

 

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1386

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1634

4170

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 17 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
6477	925	20329	31.86%	9	166

 

After 22 hours, it is at about 85% of The Lion King's final total.