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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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1 minute ago, PKMLover said:

Isn't presale of Frozen 2 supposed to be available earlier than presale of TROS??? Because Frozen 2 will be released 1 month earlier than TROS. 

Usually, yes.  But because TROS is mainline SW, they're releasing it much earlier than they would have normally.

 

My best guess is that Frozen 2 is gonna start sales next Monday, which puts it in the same ballpark of length as EndgameAladdin, TS4 and TLK.

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1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Even then, after AEG Atom has grown, though it lost Regal, it gained Cinemark and several Independents.  They're also doing this promo

 

atom-ticket-web.jpg

Are you sure about this. Regal has 569 theaters while Cinemark is around 300. Will Indies make up that much of a difference?

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SW9 Previews

AMC - 218824/761727 (it translates to about ~$3.3m if we assume 10-15% of tickets are kid tickets. )

 

There are 76 sellouts. if you look at shows with < 10 tickets available then there are another 193 near sellouts.

 

SW9 OD

AMC - 116889/988785 (around $1.7m)

 

I would let Menor report Cinemark for now. Good news is when I search for new shows I added another 200 each for previews and OD. So Plexes are already adding based on demand.

 

FYI this data is only for reserved shows and AMC has many classic theaters without reserved seating and even in theaters with reserved seating some digital screens dont have them. Yesterday I remember seeing even AMC Empire have around dozen shows without reserved seating but they disappeared today. Not sure they were for bulk booking. Only Wang can report true AMC numbers. I hope he provides an update later today.

 

I have no comparisons to SW9 as I have been doing this since Joker and they are not in the same ballpark.

Edited by keysersoze123
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Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-58 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 1 164 6,859 28,790 23.82%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 25

Total Seats Added Today: 2,510

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,469

 

Nearly 1,500 tickets sold seems crazy, and it very much is. It's only slightly less than Joker's tickets sold on the day of previews. But of course, there's a big asterisk here in the sense that it's still by all accounts the first day of previews. Around here, tickets went on sale at around 8PM, so this still had another full day for people who weren't watching the game or were unaware about tickets dropping tonight to pick up. But again, almost 1,500 tickets is still almost 1,500 tickets. But don't be surprised if the movie starts to crash down to earth tomorrow

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Thursday Previews

 

Soooo, let's just start here:

 

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Theater Today   10/22 Total %   Shows SOs
SM Cinemagic 935   935 2065 45.27%   12 2
Cinemagic 2088   2088 4410 47.34%   26 4
Lincoln Square 13 4491   4491 6516 68.92%   24 11

 

SM Cinemagic = Three Southern Maine Theaters

Cinemagic = Three Southern Maine Theater + Two NH Theaters

 

Great Day. It's so far ahead of everything but AEG that there's almost no point in comping this out until we hit the final stretch.  It ended up:

 

Theater TROS AEG % Est
SMCM 935 1138 82.16% 49.29M
LS13 4491 4667 96.22% 57.73M

 

So put me down for "I'm totally on board for 53.51M in Previews.  Mindblowing number for Porthos, doesn't beat Endgame for me."

 

And, visual of me looking at those percentage sold:

 

giphy.gif

 

Everything is basically sold out and until they add in new screens I'm kinda done until December. Lol

 

Onto this week's Coming Attractions:

 

Terminator
Theater Today   10/9 10/22 Total %   Shows
SM Cinemagic 7   0 7 1077 0.65%   6
Cinemagic 12   -- 12 1724 0.69%   11
AMC 25 128   101 229 1994 11.48%   7
Lincoln Square 13 93   152 245 1554 15.76%   4

 

   

Black and Blue
Theater Today   10/22 Total %   Shows
AMC 25 59   59 292 20.20%   2
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3 hours ago, Menor said:

-snip-

That 30mn was a conservative estimates, may be 35mn, but I don't think more than that as daily tracking almost matched the final pre-sales we estimated. It's usual that big chains have a bigger pie in pre-sales, so I won't bother about that.

 

BTW what is the 24 hours Cinemark & AMC Thursday and Total numbers. (also @keysersoze123)

 

Also can someone get if @Deep Wang gave us data of 1 or 2 or 3 days for Endgame, that may help us making things clearer.

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Gonna go ahead and report this as "Day Two", but consider that it still only had five-six hours of sales locally last night.  

 

====

 

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-58 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

1

187

13044

22742

9698

42.64%

 

Total Showings Added Today

31*

Total Seats Added Today

3009

Total Seats Sold Today

1497

* Includes 2 showings which are non-reserved seating

 

"Day Two" Adjusted Comps #1 

 

   %

 

Sold "Day Two"

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

: Sold

 

Comp

CM

550.15

 

195

1693

 

0/69

7855/9548

17.73%

 

113.88m

EG

57.92

 

1107

16082

 

9/212

6394/22476

71.55%

 

34.75m

TROS (adj)

n/a

 

1407

9314

 

1/187

12166/21480

43.36%

 

n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame

"DAY TWO" NOTE: The first day of sales cited here are after 1 day and 6 hours or so for Captain Marvel, around 15 to 16 hours for Endgame, and 5+ hours for TROS.

 

"Day Two" Adjusted Comps #2 

 

   %

 

Sold "Day Two"

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

IW

161.48

 

541

5203

 

1/106

5297/10500

49.55%

 

62.98m

Solo

301.04

 

161

2791

 

0/87

6557/9348

29.86%

 

42.45m

TROS (adj)

n/a

 

1244

8402

 

1/187

9194/17596

47.75%

 

n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War and Solo.

"DAY TWO" NOTE: The first day of sales cited here are after 25 hours or so or Solo, around 14 to 15 hours for Infinity War, and 5+ hours for TROS.

 

Commentary in next post.

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Okay, no matter if it's looked at as a separate Day Two, or part of Day One (which would further fuck with the comps) or a Day One-And-One-Half, a great day locally.

 

I will note that though...

1 hour ago, Eric loves Rey said:

But don't be surprised if the movie starts to crash down to earth tomorrow

This is coming pretty soon.  I don't know about tomorrow (more on this in a bit), but it absolutely is gonna slow down.

 

A ton of the best theaters in the 6pm to 9pm windows are near-maxed out.  39 showings are at two rows (or equivalent) or less.  I didn't keep a running track, but the number of "Tele sellouts" (one row [equivalent] or less) is also in the double digits.

 

There's also a fair amount of 3D showings which is sucking down the average as are the post 10pm showings.  We're gonna enter the slog soon.  I don't know if it's gonna be tomorrow or not though.  Probably gonna be in the 200-400 seat range tomorrow, pending more showings being added.

 

I decided to do a bit of an experiment.  From about 9:30-10:30 last night to 12:30 to 1:30 this afternoon, TROS sold

 

926 tickets overall

859 tickets when adjusted for the same tracking info I had for EG/CM

747 tickets when adjusted for the same tracking info I had for IW/Solo

 

Between 12:30pm-1:30pm to 9:30-10:30pm this afternoon/tonight TROS sold:

 

571 tickets overall

548 tickets when adjusted for the same tracking info I had for EG/CM

497 tickets when adjusted for the same tracking info I had for IW/Solo

 

So it is absolutely slowing down.  Not sure what I'm going to see for tomorrow.  IW sold 264 on it's third day and EG sold 566.  Might want to see 300 to 500 then on an adjusted basis.  Wouldn't be too surprised to see it under that though as it's bumping up against ceilings in a few places.

 

Finally, it still is 58 days away (and EG was much closer to release).  Speaking of which, the game plan:

 

For the next few days, I'm going to keep a comp of all four movies.  In a few days though, probably by the weekend, I'm going to drop all comps except for Captain Marvel.  Yes, it's a lol comp (and I'll note it as such), but it's the only one I have this far out.

 

When I get a little past T-41, I'll bring Infinity War back in.  Might be a few days after it started as I want to comp after it's inflationary stage.  I'll bring Endgame back in around T-20 or so and Solo T-18 or so.  Not sure exactly what days.

 

None of those comps will be great until much closer to release, but if I don't include them, I'll get peppered for comps anyway, so I'll just have to trust y'alls not to read too much into them.

 

So still going great in Sacto.  Now just have to wait and see when the inevitable slowdown starts.

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AMC was 25% of opening day for Endgame, Thursday would have been around 30% Approx.

Regal 21% (Thursday 22%) and Cinemark 12.5% (Thursday around 13.5-14%).

 

So these chains do around 66% for Thursday night of Endgame. In pre-sales should be around 80% of Total easily, may be higher.

 

@Menor @keysersoze123 see if this helps you some how.

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I will use AMC ~37-38% of pre-sales, Regal ~27% and Cinemark around ~18%.

 

@Porthos what was the ratio we used for Deep's number.

Not a clue, sorry. :lol:

 

@Menor might be better to ask as he's done quite a few Cinemark tracks and has consistently nailed/gotten exceedingly close to the preview number based on Cinemark numbers.

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13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

AMC - 187398/722656(4275 shows)

AMC OD - 98150/939955 (4577 shows)

Using 37% approx, gives $7.5mn for Thursday night and $3.5mn for Friday. Say another $3.5mn after opening day. That gives $14.5mn after 17 hours.

10 hours ago, Menor said:

Estimated Sales: 1589599 (+151187)

Estimated Total Sales: 819482

 

Using 18% gives $9mn for Thursday, $4.5mn Friday and say another $4mn after Friday. That gives $17mn after 20 hours.

 

This aligns well, separated by $2.5mn in 3 hours difference, say $16-17mn after 20 hours and $18-19mn Approx full day one.

 

After considering few factors and actually seeing theatre wise gross, I up my Endgame projection to $37mn Approx, taking 40% of $15mn reported sale of AMC in 24 hours. Also, that will give around $25mn for Force Awakens and $14mn Approx for Infinity War.

 

First 24 Hours estimated Sales.

  1. Avengers: Endgame: $37mn Approx
  2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens: $25mn Approx
  3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker: $18mn Approx
  4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  5. Avengers: Infinity War: $14mn
Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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Zombieland 2 was about 95% full for my screening tonight in a 400+ seat auditorium. Who knows, maybe it's doing well at this theatre overall anyways, but maybe it could see a pretty decent jump today..? 

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