The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Old Spice]

2 minutes ago, XO21 said:

Thanksgiving is on the 28th, so the holidays are 25-28th or 28-29th?

28th-29th.

[Curtis1986]

I am starting to fill a mini breakout for Harriet which wouldn't be that shocking considering this is the first movie about Harriet Tubman and is more friendly friendly than most movies about slavery.

[StarWarsMemer]

Shouldnt the Frozen 2 pre-sales be released by now

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-50 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	253	11777	52004	40227	22.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 82

Edited November 1, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, StarWarsMemer said:

Shouldnt the Frozen 2 pre-sales be released by now

The Mouse moves in mysterious ways; ineffable to all forms of mere human understanding.

 

===

 

Any day now as showtimes are popping up.  Absolutely no later than this coming Monday.  Beyond that your guess is as good as mine.

Edited October 31, 2019 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

15 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Terminator Dark Fate(T-1)

AMC Prev - 19307/200955 $320787 1007 shows +2468
AMC OD -  27652/615205 $454447 2953 shows + 3790
Cin Prev - 7570/205205 $97916 1273 shows +1440
Cin OD - 14163/494905 $164849 2953 shows +1958

 

Good increase in just under 9 hours. As someone said Halloween could depress previews but OD should be solid. I am thinking it could hit 12-13m friday with just under 2m previews.

Terminator Dark Fate (Mid day thursday Update)

AMC Prev - 24647/202414 $402686  +5340
Cin Prev - 9976/200627 $128276 + 2406

 

Its ramping up. I am thinking it should hit 45-50K finish. That should be enough for > 2m previews.

[Napoleon]

Go Terminator 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

The Mouse moves in mysterious ways; ineffable to all forms of mere human understanding.

Speaking of which, I'm not seeing any Opening Night Fan Events for Frozen 2.  

 

This is the first time in a while that a major tentpole Disney release didn't get one.  At least from what I remember.

 

Might just not be up yet locally, but it's damned strange not to see it for F2.  

[Inceptionzq]

22 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Speaking of which, I'm not seeing any Opening Night Fan Events for Frozen 2.  

 

This is the first time in a while that a major tentpole Disney release didn't get one.  At least from what I remember.

 

Might just not be up yet locally, but it's damned strange not to see it for F2.  

There’s one fan event here, but it’s Saturday morning at 10AM at an AMC Dolby auditorium. Looking around at other cities, it seems to be the same case.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

There’s one fan event here, but it’s Saturday morning at 10AM at an AMC Dolby auditorium. Looking around at other cities, it seems to be the same case.

Hmmm, I did see a reference to a "Fan Event in Dolby" in Fandango but I didn't investigate it.  

 

*checks*

 

Unsurprisingly, with no AMCs locally  we don't get that here. 

 

Weird.  Wonder if it's Disney trying something new or if some sort of deal/promotion was made with Dolby/AMC.

Edited October 31, 2019 by Porthos

[Old Spice]

Terminator: Dark Fate preview night report for Salt Lake City, 3:30 local time.

Cinemark Sugarhouse, six showings.

 

(Don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger.)

 

29/433 6.7 %

 

Comps:

8.1% of It: Chapter 2 = $7.37M OW

7.7% of Joker = $7.40M

15.6% of Pika= $8.49M

36% of Dark Phoenix = $11.89M

28.7% of Godzilla = $13.72M

29.2% of Hobbs and Shaw = $23.51M

 

Halloween must be skewing this tremendously, because these numbers don't make sense on any level. But make of them what you will. I also checked Friday, to see if that would indicate a delayed pop from all the other stuff going on tonight, but those numbers are dreadful too:

 

31/878 3.5%

 

So like any good b.o. analyst, I'm just going to ignore all the data and go with what my gut tells me. With the RT score approaching 70%, this gets decent WOM and good walkups over the weekend, and makes it to $31-33M. And it's a longggg time before we see another Terminator movie in theaters.

[JB33]

23 minutes ago, A Star is Orm said:

Terminator: Dark Fate preview night report for Salt Lake City, 3:30 local time.

Cinemark Sugarhouse, six showings.

 

(Don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger.)

 

29/433 6.7 %

 

Comps:

8.1% of It: Chapter 2 = $7.37M OW

7.7% of Joker = $7.40M

15.6% of Pika= $8.49M

36% of Dark Phoenix = $11.89M

28.7% of Godzilla = $13.72M

29.2% of Hobbs and Shaw = $23.51M

 

Halloween must be skewing this tremendously, because these numbers don't make sense on any level. But make of them what you will. I also checked Friday, to see if that would indicate a delayed pop from all the other stuff going on tonight, but those numbers are dreadful too:

 

31/878 3.5%

 

So like any good b.o. analyst, I'm just going to ignore all the data and go with what my gut tells me. With the RT score approaching 70%, this gets decent WOM and good walkups over the weekend, and makes it to $31-33M. And it's a longggg time before we see another Terminator movie in theaters.

That's pretty much exactly the range I have, except I have it narrowed down to 32-33. I'm not seeing the $40M others are seeing.

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/30/2019 at 4:02 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1501

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1553

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7158	65	22870	31.30%	9	182

 

Showings added: 3

Seats added: 184

 

Now over 94% of The Lion King

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1510

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1561

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7227	69	22870	31.60%	9	182

 

Pretty solid. Sold more over these past 24 hours than over the previous 2 days. Over 95% of The Lion King

[keysersoze123]

23 minutes ago, JB33 said:

That's pretty much exactly the range I have, except I have it narrowed down to 32-33. I'm not seeing the $40M others are seeing.

I on the other hand think 40m is possible. PS for tomorrow is rock solid. Definitely hitting low teens friday and with better walk ins I can see this hit 40m. but 35m is a good conservative prediction at this point.

 

PS for 2 chains crossed 650K for previews, So 2m+ previews is happening. How much higher it can go I will update at night. If Final number goes to 850K then you are looking at 2.3-2.5m range.

[DAJK]

We should probably be careful about extrapolating a horrible Terminator number after tonight's figures. Halloween is NOT a day people generally go to the movies (unless it's a horror movie before they pre-game) so I would expect the previews/OD ratio to be better than expected for this one. 

[John2015]

36 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I on the other hand think 40m is possible. PS for tomorrow is rock solid. Definitely hitting low teens friday and with better walk ins I can see this hit 40m. but 35m is a good conservative prediction at this point.

 

PS for 2 chains crossed 650K for previews, So 2m+ previews is happening. How much higher it can go I will update at night. If Final number goes to 850K then you are looking at 2.3-2.5m range.

around $2m previews is actually good for Halloween standard.

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

We should probably be careful about extrapolating a horrible Terminator number after tonight's figures. Halloween is NOT a day people generally go to the movies (unless it's a horror movie before they pre-game) so I would expect the previews/OD ratio to be better than expected for this one.

 a HSX member have given an example:   Zack and Miri Make a Porno did 2.2 million on its Halloween opening day, on Saturday it went up 119% to 4.8 million

Edited October 31, 2019 by John2015

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

Yeah, Halloween will save it from a likely 11-12x but it’s certainly not shooting all the way up to something like a 17x either

[Eric Atreides]

The last movie to have previews on Halloween was Ender's Game (I think I'm the first person ever to mention that movie in over 3 years lol) in 2013. It did 1.4M in previews (don't know the time they started) and finished with about 27M for the OW. A similar multiple for Terminator with, say, 2M previews would be about 38.6M, although a 5-year differen does mean Terminator should be more frontloaded than Ender's, so...35M?

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, Eric Connor said:

The last movie to have previews on Halloween was Ender's Game (I think I'm the first person ever to mention that movie in over 3 years lol) in 2013. It did 1.4M in previews (don't know the time they started) and finished with about 27M for the OW. A similar multiple for Terminator with, say, 2M previews would be about 38.6M, although a 5-year differen does mean Terminator should be more frontloaded than Ender's, so...35M?

Ender's Game is a good movie.

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local, chart behind cut

 

Spoiler

 

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Preview Start
Shazam!					129/2229	(Afternoon)	187/2229	(3:30pm)	$5.9m	4:00 PM
Avengers: Endgame	3948/4,736	(12am)			4,853/5493	(9pm)			$60m	6:00 PM
Aladdin			98/1242	(12pm)					$7m	6:00 PM
Godzilla 2					135/1915	(7:45pm)	204/2150	(3:30pm)	$6.3m	4:00 PM
X-Men: DP			103/942	(4pm)	209/942	(3:15pm)	272/942	(3:45pm)	$5m	6:00 PM
SLOP 2			38/771	(4pm)	43/771	(3:15pm)			$2.3m	6:00 PM
Toy Story 4			165/2049	(4pm)	233/2049	(7:40pm)			$12m	6:00 PM
SM:FFH	142/922								$2.8m	Midnights Only
The Lion King	236/3228	(6:30pm)	294/3228	(6:20pm)	444/3228	(4:30pm)	557/3228	(4:30pm)	$23m	6:00 PM
OUATIH			117/1179	(2:15pm)	159/1179	(4pm)	335/1179	(4:20pm)	$5.8m	4:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw	60/1543	(5:20pm)			181/1543	(4pm)			$5.8m	7:00 PM
IT Part 2	147/2764	(9am)			239/2764	(7:10pm)			$10.5m	5:00 PM
Hustlers			45/512	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	$2.5m	6:00 PM
Downton Abbey (eps)			37/301	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	$2.2m	7:00 PM
Ad Astra			26/602	(4:30pm)	26/602	(4:30pm)	41/602	(4:30pm)	$1.5m	6:00 PM
Downton Abbey			31/512	(4:30pm)	39/512	(4:30pm)	52/1015	(4:30pm)	$2.1m	7:00 PM
Rambo			29/302	(4:30pm)	53/1242	(4:30pm)	58/1242	(4:30pm)	$1.3m	6:00 PM
Abominable			30/255	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	73/1969	(4:30pm)	$.65m	6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week)	104/2766	(9am)	172/2766	(4:30pm)			217/3536	(4pm)		4:00 PM
Joker	328/3536	(4:20pm)	399/3536	(4pm)	542/3536	(4pm)	760/3741	(3:45pm)	$13.3m	4:00 PM
Gemini Man			38/1004	(4pm)	38/1004	(4pm)	78/1004	[6:30pm]	$1.55m	7:00 PM
Adams Family		(4pm)	53/1373	(4pm)	49/1373	(4pm)			$1.25m	4:00 PM
Maleficent 2	39/1154	(4pm)	42/1154	(4pm)	33/834	(4pm)	96/1425	[6pm]	$2.3m	7:00 PM
Zombieland 2	51/1114	(4pm)	53/1114	(4pm)	67/1177	(4pm)	95/1478	[6pm]	$2.85m	7:00 PM
Black & Blue			19/410	(4pm)			20/410	(4pm)	$.68m	7:00 PM
Countdown			15/511	(4pm)			19/411	(4pm)	$.52m	7:00 PM
Terminator: DF	71/1242	(4pm)	71/1242	(4pm)	76/1242	(5:30pm)	113/1242	(4pm)		7:00 PM
Harriet	25/512	(4pm)	25/512	(4pm)	27/512	(5:30pm)	29/512	(4pm)		7:00 PM

 

 

 

Terminator: DF	71/1242	(4pm)	71/1242	(4pm)	76/1242	(5:30pm)	113/1242	(4pm)		7:00 PM
Harriet	25/512	(4pm)	25/512	(4pm)	27/512	(5:30pm)	29/512	(4pm)		7:00 PM

 

COMPS

 

Harriet :   (pretty much just one )

Black & Blue: $0.986m previews

 

Terminator: Dark Fate

Gemini Man:  $2.25m

Rambo:  $2.53m

 

Walk ups could be stunted by Halloween parties etc so Previews could come in under those comps but if so the Thur to w/e multi should also be higher.