The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[dudalb]

Real problem is Dark Fate has a 180 Million price tag which means around 350 Million break even point, and it has not been performing all the well overseas. Going to have a rough time just breaking even.

[dudalb]

18 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

 

i wonder the theater demands this time around , since the theaters got burned last time.

Disney is notorious for it's very stiff terms for big movies.

Of course, this is just the opening bid, and I suspect the final deal will be a lot different.

[Eric Duncan]

Harriet Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	494	3,574	13.82%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 260

 

Comp

0.455x of Hustlers (1.14M)

0.804x of Downton Abbey (1.69M)

0.666x of Gemini Man (1.07M)

0.730x of Black and Blue (492K)

 

Mock me if it does hit 1M, but that Black and Blue comp seems like the best bet, but still wouldn't be terrible all things considered

[John Marston]

Terminator will be frontloaded. There will be no legs over the weekend

[Eric Duncan]

Terminator: Dark Fate Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	49	871	11,209	7.77%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 446

Total Seats Sold Today: 460

 

Comp

0.458x of Once Upon (2.66M)

1.803x of Angel Has Fallen (2.70M)

0.251x of It: Chapter Two (2.64M)

1.837x of Ad Astra (2.76M)

2.054x of Rambo (2.67M)

0.177x of Joker (2.36M)

1.175x of Gemini Man (1.88M)

0.860x of Zombieland (2.45M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.395x of Hobbs & Shaw (2.29M)

 

This was a good final day for the film. Got enough of a boost in terms of tickets sold as a raw number and in comps that might not make the film seem DOA, at least here in the States, although we'll see what happens tomorrow

[efialtes76]

10 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Terminator will be frontloaded. There will be no legs over the weekend

"All I have are negative thoughts... about Terminator Dark Fate"

[Napoleon]

Older audiences might be coming to see Linda Hamilton return to the franchise which would make less frontloaded 

[John2015]

Just now, Napoleon said:

Older audiences might be coming to see Linda Hamilton return to the franchise which would make less frontloaded 

Yes, later pre-sales actions and "Fresh" RT rating also indicate that the film will be less frontloaded.

 

After watching the film, I think the film would at least gross higher than Blade Runner 2 in US.

[cdsacken]

20x previews is not happening much less 18x.

 

28-32m

[John2015]

14 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

20x previews is not happening much less 18x.

 

28-32m

Today is Halloween (terrible day for movie theaters)

Edited November 1, 2019 by John2015

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/30/2019 at 4:19 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Terminator: Dark Fate Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

106

808

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

79

753

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
332	108	6513	5.10%	9	31

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 176

 

Zombieland 2 comp: 2.07M

Gemini Man comp: 2.89M

Hobbs comp: 2.14M

Terminator: Dark Fate Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

218

1124

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

159

753

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
935	603	6829	13.69%	9	33

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 316

 

Zombieland 2 comp: 1.94M

Gemini Man comp: 2.78M

Hobbs comp: 2.64M

Rambo comp: 2.58M

Hustlers comp: 2.77M

 

Walkups will probably be weaker than all of these movies since it's Halloween. But when we take out the Zombieland comp, low 2Ms does look pretty good. I'll go with 2.3M. Maybe this actually will get close to a 40M OW.

[cdsacken]

8 minutes ago, John2015 said:

Today is Halloween (terrible day for movie theaters)

Joker will do ok. A movie no one cares about won't. Imagine if it was bad, it would do like 15 OW, 150 max WW total. Glad it appears it's ok. I will see it for nostalgia.

 

Maybe it will surprise and do low 30s. Hope so 

Edited November 1, 2019 by cdsacken

[PKMLover]

Frozen 2 presale is still not available yet?

 

[Yandereprime101189]

I can has Frozen 2?

[Poseidon]

49 minutes ago, John2015 said:

Today is Halloween (terrible day for movie theaters)

Is it? 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2013-10-31/?ref_=bo_di_table_62
It actually helped many movies the last time it fell on a thursday. Especially if you look at the movies targeting older audiences.

 

 

Terminator is a disaster all over Europe and this is in no way opening anywhere close to 40m ath this point. 

[Porthos]

32 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Frozen 2 presale is still not available yet?

 

 

18 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

I can has Frozen 2?

[John2015]

28 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

Is it? 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2013-10-31/?ref_=bo_di_table_62
It actually helped many movies the last time it fell on a thursday. Especially if you look at the movies targeting older audiences.

 

 

Terminator is a disaster all over Europe and this is in no way opening anywhere close to 40m ath this point. 

other people have given some examples

- Zack and Miri Make a Porno did 2.2 million on its Halloween opening day, on Saturday it went up 119% to 4.8 million

-Ender's Game did about 1.4 million in Halloween preview，  but it grossed about 27 million during the whole weekend

 

 

By the way, Last Blood was also a disaster in Europe， but it outgrossed the previous Rambo film in US

[Cap]

v Finale Sales Comps
Movie	Sold	%	Est
Terminator
Empire 25	564	--	--
Gemini Man	601	93.84%	1.50M
Scary Stories	558	101.07%	2.36M
Zombieland	339	166.37%	4.74M
Average:			2.87M
Lincoln Square	646	--	--
Gemini Man	319	202.50%	3.24M
John Wick 3	675	95.70%	5.65M
Hobbs & Shaw	525	123.05%	7.14M
Average:			5.34M
Cinemagic	58	--	--
Gemini Man	10	580.00%	4.20M
John Wick 3	186	31.18%	1.83M
Hobbs & Shaw	146	39.72%	2.30M
Average:			2.78M

 

 

I don't know if these are good or not, but I like that it's 2.87 and 2.78, so here's to that.

[Poseidon]

18 minutes ago, John2015 said:

other people have given some examples

- Zack and Miri Make a Porno did 2.2 million on its Halloween opening day, on Saturday it went up 119% to 4.8 million

-Ender's Game did about 1.4 million in Halloween preview，  but it grossed about 27 million during the whole weekend

 

 

By the way, Last Blood was also a disaster in Europe， but it outgrossed the previous Rambo film in US

It's first of all a question of target groups. Zac and Miri are totally targeting the Halloweenparty-Age.

 

Second, Halloween being on a friday will naturally lead to more halloween parties, than a weekday. .

 

Ender's Game opened in a completely different time. $27m off a 1,4m preview for a kids movie was actually considered mediocre at best at that time.
Gravity had the same amount of Previews and opened to $55m.

[keysersoze123]

Let burst for Terminator is really good. Really bodes well for solid walk ins this weekend. I would ignore the bunch of usual suspects who come to this thread only as Debbie Downers ready to pile in on some movie. As I said its PS was meh until couple of days ago. It sold more tickets today than rest of its PS run and PS for tomorrow is already well ahead of today's finish. I will post final numbers in couple of hours but at this point I would not rule out 40m weekend based on the data I see.