The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

CINEPLEX BANQUE SCOTIA MONTREAL

 

TERMINATOR: DARK FATE - THURSDAY OCT 31 2019 (FINAL)

 

UltraAvX

7:00pm - 95/378 (+82)

10:10pm - 25/378 (+21)

IMAX

7:30pm - 148/343 (+66)

10:40pm - 31/343 (+22)

 

Comps

0.157 x Joker = 2.09m

0.654 x Hobbs/Shaw = 3.79m

0.52 x Dark Phoenix = 2.6m

0.562 x KOTM = 3.54m

 

Looking more optimistic than in the morning. Feel like it can come closer to 2.6-2,7m than low 2m. 

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

CINEPLEX BANQUE SCOTIA MONTREAL

 

TERMINATOR: DARK FATE - THURSDAY OCT 31 2019 (FINAL)

 

UltraAvX

7:00pm - 95/378 (+82)

10:10pm - 25/378 (+21)

IMAX

7:30pm - 148/343 (+66)

10:40pm - 31/343 (+22)

 

Comps

0.157 x Joker = 2.09m

0.654 x Hobbs/Shaw = 3.79m

0.52 x Dark Phoenix = 2.6m

0.562 x KOTM = 3.54m

 

Looking more optimistic than in the morning. Feel like it can come closer to 2.6-2,7m than low 2m. 

I agree. I am seeing something like that as well. Would be closer to 3m than what I thought was possible yesterday. I had pencilled on 45-50K finish this afternoon and its finishing 70K+ between both the chains. I would predict 2.8-3m previews at this point.

[DAJK]

Hopefully will be able to check my comps by around 1015 PM PST or so

[Poseidon]

56 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Let burst for Terminator is really good. Really bodes well for solid walk ins this weekend. I would ignore the bunch of usual suspects who come to this thread only as Debbie Downers ready to pile in on some movie. As I said its PS was meh until couple of days ago. It sold more tickets today than rest of its PS run and PS for tomorrow is already well ahead of today's finish. I will post final numbers in couple of hours but at this point I would not rule out 40m weekend based on the data I see.

I thinkt that's quite unfair. I'm neither a usual suspect, nor am I piling down on some movie. I'm in a box office forum, because I like predicting numbers. I don't care about fan wars or stuff. Things just aren't looking great.

 

Let's say things are looking at about $2,7m. Let's be generous and add 20% because of Halloween. So that's about 3,25m on a "normal day".

Show me the last movie reaching 40m with that kind of previews, let alone a franchise one. 

[Eric Atreides]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-49 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	164	7,914	28,790	27.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 42

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

I thinkt that's quite unfair. I'm neither a usual suspect, nor am I piling down on some movie. I'm in a box office forum, because I like predicting numbers. I don't care about fan wars or stuff. Things just aren't looking great.

 

Let's say things are looking at about $2,7m. Let's be generous and add 20% because of Halloween. So that's about 3,25m on a "normal day".

Show me the last movie reaching 40m with that kind of previews, let alone a franchise one. 

I am just projecting based on PS for OD. its really strong. Looks like finish with higher ticket sales than Mal 2 OD. That did 10m minus previews. This will have fewer kids tickets as well. Plus it targets older audience which tend to be backloaded over the weekend. Reviews being better than Genesis also helps.

 

I am personally not vested in the movie(they should have stopped making these after T2). But from a raw number its not getting outright rejected.

 

if you are not usually a debbie downer my apologies. I was refering to couple of others who come in and only contribution to this thread is pull down movies. I would rather have this thread analyze tracking data and leave the financials and BO success to the movie or daily/weekend BO thread. This movie is not going to making money theatrically(mostly will lose even after streaming). Still our goal here is to predict previews/OD/OW based on the tracking data seen.

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-49 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	193	12231	23249	11018	47.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

30

 

T-49 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-49	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	452.21		50	2331		0/81	8277/10608	21.97%		93.61m
TROS (adj)	n/a		22	10541		2/193	11446/21987	47.94%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

 

===

 

Couple of group refunds/re-shufflings depressed the total today.  Otherwise would have been in the mid-to-high 40s.  Won't be surprised at all if tomorrow actually outpaces today when all is said and done, even if not by much.

Edited November 1, 2019 by Porthos

[DAJK]

Terminator Victoria:

 

IMAX: 94 tickets sold (73 and 21)

Regular: 89 tickets sold (61 and 28)

 

IMAX Comps:

136% Maleficent ($3.1M)

261% Gemini Man ($4.17M)

27% Joker ($3.6M)

45% King of the Monsters ($2.83M)

43% Aladdin ($3.01M)

16% Captain Marvel ($3.3M)

72% Glass ($2.66M)

94% Bohemian Rhapsody ($3.6M)

 

Regular Comps:

144% Maleficent ($3.3M)

72% Zombieland ($2.05M)

202% Gemini Man ($3.23M)

207% Rambo ($2.7M)

78% King of the Monsters ($4.9M)

55% John Wick 3 ($3.24M)

18% Captain Marvel ($3.7M)

56% Bohemian Rhapsody ($2.2M)

 

As you can see, some comps for IMAX/regular are very different (goes to show which types of movies play better to IMAX). Anyways, solid numbers overall I'd say much better than I was expecting, especially for Halloween. Enough to justify spending 200M on it? Nah, but it doesn't look like a complete disaster so far.

Zombieland over-indexed slightly at my theatre last weekend, so I wouldn't be too surprised if this does the same. Still, not a single comp is under 2M, and the majority are above 3M. I'll temper my expectations a little bit, and go with a range of 2.8-3.1M, expecting it to land right in the middle of around 2.95-3.05M or simply 3M. We'll see though. 

[Tinalera]

Its something im always torn on. How much to talk about how i see an opening doing. If i feel a movie will have a slow ir good opening weekend, i try to word it in a way that doesnt denote overall success for the film. Other threads discuss that.  It gets tricky sometimes. 

 

Is part of the reason why inlike how once a movie has its opening this thread switches to next opening film, leaving discussions for films and successin the appropriate threads.

[el sid]

I'm really sorry, but the AMC site was broken for me the whole day yesterday and it still is . It was never that long unavailable. Would be terrible if it would stay like that. I even can't sign in or see the list of movies.
All these problems are probably caused because I live in Europe. Or I just have bad luck. Oh, the glorious Pulse times.
Does anybody have an advice what I could do or what could be the main problem? It says „we couldn't find anything related to your search“ when I click on Movies at AMC. Maybe @TalismanRing because I thought you live in Europe too?

PS: The start was a disaster in Germany but the hold of T6 is really ok. So far -25% in the first trend and the second Thursday (=yesterday) compared to the release Thursday was down only -20% so maybe with legal holiday today in the catholic states (yesterday in the protestant ones) the hold is even better. Its Mo-Wed cross also must have been better than normal because it will be at 300k admissions including Sunday.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

52 minutes ago, el sid said:

I'm really sorry, but the AMC site was broken for me the whole day yesterday and it still is . It was never that long unavailable. Would be terrible if it would stay like that. I even can't sign in or see the list of movies.
All these problems are probably caused because I live in Europe. Or I just have bad luck. Oh, the glorious Pulse times.
Does anybody have an advice what I could do or what could be the main problem? It says „we couldn't find anything related to your search“ when I click on Movies at AMC. Maybe @TalismanRing because I thought you live in Europe too?

PS: The start was a disaster in Germany but the hold of T6 is really ok. So far -25% in the first trend and the second Thursday (=yesterday) compared to the release Thursday was down only -20% so maybe with legal holiday today in the catholic states (yesterday in the protestant ones) the hold is even better. Its Mo-Wed cross also must have been better than normal because it will be at 300k admissions including Sunday.

Whats the link to the site?

This?

https://www.amctheatres.com/

Edited November 1, 2019 by EarlyDeadlinePredictions

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-49 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	193	12231	23249	11018	47.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

30

 

T-49 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-49	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	452.21		50	2331		0/81	8277/10608	21.97%		93.61m
TROS (adj)	n/a		22	10541		2/193	11446/21987	47.94%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

 

===

 

Couple of group refunds/re-shufflings depressed the total today.  Otherwise would have been in the mid-to-high 40s.  Won't be surprised at all if tomorrow actually outpaces today when all is said and done, even if not by much.

What was CM's final total in Sacramento?

[FlashMaster659]

25 minutes ago, Menor said:

What was CM's final total in Sacramento?

10553 seats sold

[el sid]

37 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Whats the link to the site?

This?

https://www.amctheatres.com/

Yes, thank you. But if I click on "Get Tickets" the site turns black. Maybe this mistake vanishes till next week...it's not the first time that this happens.

Anyway, I will see Terminator: Dark Fate in around 3 hours .

[Porthos]

40 minutes ago, Menor said:

What was CM's final total in Sacramento?

 

14 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

10553 seats sold

 

Yep.  Just coming here to say that.  But I think CM over-performed a tad in Sacto.  FWIW, The Lion King finished at 10977 tickets so it's fairly close to that.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, el sid said:

Does anybody have an advice what I could do or what could be the main problem? It says „we couldn't find anything related to your search“ when I click on Movies at AMC. Maybe @TalismanRing because I thought you live in Europe too?

You're probably thinking of terrestrial as TalismanRing lives in New York.

[el sid]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

You're probably thinking of terrestrial as TalismanRing lives in New York.

Damn .

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

16 minutes ago, el sid said:

Yes, thank you. But if I click on "Get Tickets" the site turns black. Maybe this mistake vanishes till next week...it's not the first time that this happens.

Anyway, I will see Terminator: Dark Fate in around 3 hours .

Yeah not sure what the problem is. Works on my end. Try clearing the cache on your browser maybe?

 

Anyways hopefully it works for you soon.

[keysersoze123]

I doubt F2 tickets sales will start before Monday. So < 3 weeks of ticket sales. Will it explode off the blocks like Joker did starting so late. at Empire 25 Joker sold more than 1000 tickets in just day 1. I do not have overall AMC numbers as I started tracking it only from OD of Joker Run.

[dxmatrixdt]

Terminator gets lucky and catches another 40M OW in a bottle.  

how hard are they gonna have to work next time to repeat the same numbers?