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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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25 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

I think Day 1 for F2 will come about right in between TS4 and TLK. What do you all think?

That will be nice if so. I hope someone here can closely track the F2 presale.  F1 box office made me interested in box office in the first place anyway. 

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Coming in here to say wedding and honey moon went well. Decided to see if any of the November releases besides Frozen 2 were worth tracking and it’s a big no for the most part.

Doctor Sleep is doing meh sales in south jersey.

Last Christmas is a big bomb in south jersey (Not a single ticket sold for Thursday night at the theaters I’ve tracked) 
Charlie’s Angels is another big bomb in south jersey (2 seats sold on Wednesday but none for Thursday night)
F vs F is outselling the above two films combined so maybe this is one to keep an eye out for? But even then its sales aren’t anything to gloat about considering anything above 2 tickets would beat the above two. 

I may or may not start tracking Frozen 2 starting this week....depends on how much time I get outside of clinic. If not this Monday then def starting next Monday until release day. 

Edited to add: have Frozen 2 tickets even gone on sale yet? Silly me didn't even bother checking before posting. Whoops. 
 

*Havent checked Star Wars and probably won’t until 2 weeks out which if I track the big movies will probably be my ideal tracking window. 

Edited by Nova
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4 hours ago, a2k said:

looks good for low-20s ow so far. i think it will ramp up. 1.75m previews and mid-high 20s ow would be great.

When you factor in pre-previews, mid 20s looks likely. Possibly high 20s too. They’re hard to estimate, but I don’t think it did more than 1M. Might even pin it at around 875K. Only 7/9 theaters I track did pre-previews, and 8 showings between them. I didn’t record it, but it sold somewhere in the mid 300s. I think around 360. 
 

Downton Abbey did 2.2M, and had all 9 theaters with 13 showings. It sold 809 tickets. Doctor Sleep would comp out to almost 980K. But if it also had less showings and theaters nationwide, then probably less than that. The floor might be something like 800K.
 

But all things considered, 800K should be enough to get overall previews to 2.5M+. And with usual frontloading by fans, that would get around 25M.

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2 minutes ago, kkccoo said:

That will be nice if so. I hope someone here can closely track the F2 presale.  F1 box office made me interested in box office in the first place anyway. 

You’ll have no shortage of F2 tracking here

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2 hours ago, rihrey said:

 

 

 

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Can't wait. Buying IMAX tickets tomorrow. Well I have 5 free ones left. Using all 5.

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9 hours ago, Menor said:

One thing though is that there are tickets bought after your final check. So this method would tend to slightly overestimate.

While I'm a little unsure on my methodology, since I tend to stop my sampling at around the same time and use that to forecast a Thr number, I would think this might be more or less still in line with trying to figure out what TROS has received so far.  Looks to be in range anyway, going by other figures out there.

 

If my methodology is unsound (and I'm not sure where it is), not sure how I could tighten it up.

 

Anyways, looking for a ballpark range here and not a precise number.

 

12 hours ago, john2000 said:

do we have any idea , about how thats compared to  ep 7.8

None whatsoever, I'm afraid. :)

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Holy shit...wasn't aware that midway & doctor sleep were coming out this weekend. That's telling.

Anyways, I am not into horror so Midway for explosions.

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On 11/2/2019 at 3:51 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 1520 3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 1569 3926

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
7318 58 22870 32.00% 9 182

 

Over 96% of The Lion King

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 1525 3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 1571 3926

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
7370 52 22870 32.23% 9 182

 

Over 97% of The Lion King.

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On 10/1/2019 at 8:33 PM, Menor said:

Fandango is doable for me. It's just a question of runtime because there are so many theaters covered that it would be impractical to do them all and still be able to give daily reports. But if the runtime issue could be managed that would be an amazing source as pretty much all major theaters would be covered.

@Menor Sorry to bring this up. Can you only do non AMC non Cinemark Fandango theaters. Then we will have almost complete data.

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Considering AMC is removing sold out shows at many plexes, we are underestimating the SW ticket sales rather than overestimating it. I am sure its overal previews PS is higher than Porthos number. I am thinking 25m range for now. Some chains like Drafthouse are absolutely insane with so many sellouts.

 

On Frozen 2, hopefully it gets more shows for previews. Currently the count is not very high. Nothing that screams double digit previews. Only comparison I have is with TLK and that had huge number of shows from day 1 of PS. Currently at AMC it has 1396 shows listed nationally. Joker had over 3 times that number(SW9 already at 4x that number). But more than number of shows let us see how it sells in its 1st day. Joker sold over 1000 tickets at Empire 25. I am expecting this to come close since expectations are for 20m previews.

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On 11/2/2019 at 4:02 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Sleep Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 36 346

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 14 329

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
94 12 3399 2.77% 8 21

 

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 1.68M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 1.47M

Adjusted Terminator comp: 1.61M

IT 2 comp: 715K

Doctor Sleep Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 46 346

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 19 329

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD TODAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS  SHOWINGS
118 24 3496 3.38% 9 22

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 97

 

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 1.72M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 1.52M

Terminator comp: 1.46M

IT 2 comp: 832K

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When people say "97% of TLK" do you mean 97% of where TLK was at the same point or 97% of TLK's total?

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22 minutes ago, jedijake said:

When people say "97% of TLK" do you mean 97% of where TLK was at the same point or 97% of TLK's total?

97% of the final total

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4 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

97% of the final total

Final total of pre-sales? Opening day totals?

 

 

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49 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Final total of pre-sales? Opening day totals?

 

 

Final total of ticket sales for Thursday previews

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Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-46 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 1 164 8,060 28,932 27.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 42

 

Before anyone asks, yes the total seats count increased. No it didn't increase today, it was just one showing I forgot to add in that's been around since day 2 or 3. 's not a big deal though.

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The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-46 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

2

194

12018

23249

11231

48.31%

 

Total Showings Added Today

1*

Total Seats Added Today

n/a

Total Seats Sold Today

49

* Showing added today was at a non-reserved seating theater

 

T-46 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

 

   %

 

Sold T-46

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

CM

438.62

 

43

2447

 

0/81

8161/10608

23.07%

 

90.79m

TROS (adj)

n/a

 

46

10733

 

2/194

11254/21987

48.82%

 

n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

---

Estimated TROS Gross So Far:

 

   %

 

Final Sold

 

TROS Sold

 

Comp

IW

63.03

 

15159

 

9598

 

24.69m

DP2

117.47

 

8133

 

9598

 

21.95m

Solo

165.04

 

5789

 

9598

 

23.38m

JW:FK

153.40

 

6228

 

9598

 

23.58m

AM&tW

207.47

 

4605

 

9598

 

23.97m

Venom

220.52

 

4493

 

9954

 

22.15m

CM

101.27

 

10553

 

10733

 

21.05m

EG

40.09

 

26655

 

10733

 

24.16m

TLK

97.36

 

10977

 

10733

 

22.49m

It 2

197.60

 

5659

 

11231

 

20.84m

AVG

 

 

 

 

 

 

22.83m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

Edited by Porthos
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