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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, FlashMaster659 said:

So I imagine F2 will probably beat TS4's first day pretty comfortably then?

I'd reckon so.

 

Is six days closer to release, mind.  So, once again this year, not a perfect comparison.  But should equalize pretty quickly.

 

====

 

I'll probably comp off the first two or three days for all of the family films I have to get a nice baseline for the initial takeoff and then shift over to x-Days from release on Thursday or Friday.  The Pika Pika comp, if I include it, will be a little screwy when I shift over due to it having 30 days of pre-sales (versus Frozen 2's 18).  But that too should normalize fairly quickly.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Claudio said:

No need to worry about the weak early presales. Frozen 2 is an animation + female oriented which means less rush for tickets. also it’s not long awaited like Incredibles 2. Besides I think the release date contributes some effects too. I mean a good amount of people will probably watch this on thanksgiving holiday with their families on the midweek. If anything , legs will be the key factor here just like the first Frozen.

Huh? Weak?

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Upto 11386/379399 140617.00 and so its selling just about 2000 tickets per hour at Cinemark. Could end up around 25k for Day 1. Menor had right data for SW9 and that sold around 130K. No other comparisons 🙂

At T-10 TLK was at 42343, that's the farthest out I tracked it. But I remember at one point during Endgame's presales I found an approximate correlation between Pulse and AMC, I'll go look and see if I can estimate some #s.

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Barnack Global Phenomenon

Barnack

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Claudio said:

female oriented which means less rush for tickets.

?

 

Is that true ? The HG-Twilight, 50 shades fault in our stars big pre-sellers ? 

 

https://ew.com/article/2009/11/19/new-moon-ticket-pre-sales-breaking-records/

https://wegotthiscovered.com/movies/fifty-shades-grey-fastest-selling-rrated-movie-fandango-history/

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/03/20/hunger-games-tickets-pre-sale-reviews_n_1368134.html?ri18n=true

https://time.com/2819213/the-fault-in-our-stars-sales-records/

 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted

Making some estimations, TLK should have been around 17k tickets for previews in the first day (from beginning of presales to when @Porthos makes his report, since I'm using the Sacramento frontloadedness to estimate national proportions) at Cinemark. TS4 is harder to gauge but it seems to be around 9-10k. Again though both of these started a week earlier.

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FlashMaster659 Box Office Gold

FlashMaster659

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Menor said:

Making some estimations, TLK should have been around 17k tickets for previews in the first day (from beginning of presales to when @Porthos makes his report, since I'm using the Sacramento frontloadedness to estimate national proportions) at Cinemark. TS4 is harder to gauge but it seems to be around 9-10k. Again though both of these started a week earlier.

So F2 being at 11.4K a couple of hours ago would be pretty great right?

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

So F2 being at 11.4K a couple of hours ago would be pretty great right?

Yeah for sure. My hope is that it can match/exceed TLK at least.

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Menor Sorry to bring this up. Can you only do non AMC non Cinemark Fandango theaters. Then we will have almost complete data.

Yes, I can, but pretty busy atm. Probably will do that over the Christmas holidays along with BookMyShow.

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted

NYC Local - ehhhh.  All under Harriet's Monday and Dr Sleep is less than half of Zombieland 2 (51)

 

NYC Local Mon   Preview Start
Midway 20/512 (4pm) 7:00 PM
Dr Sleep 23/510 (4pm) 6:00 PM
Last Christmas 12/496 (4pm) 7:00 PM
Playing With Fire 18/654 (4pm) 4:00 PM

 

 


Full chart behind cut

Spoiler


 

NYC Local Mon   Tues   Wed   Thur   Previews Preview Start
Shazam!         129/2229 (Afternoon) 187/2229 (3:30pm) $5.9m 4:00 PM
Avengers: Endgame 3948/4,736 (12am)     4,853/5493 (9pm)     $60m 6:00 PM
Aladdin     98/1242 (12pm)         $7m 6:00 PM
Godzilla 2         135/1915 (7:45pm) 204/2150 (3:30pm) $6.3m 4:00 PM
X-Men: DP     103/942 (4pm) 209/942 (3:15pm) 272/942 (3:45pm) $5m 6:00 PM
SLOP 2     38/771 (4pm) 43/771 (3:15pm)     $2.3m 6:00 PM
Toy Story 4     165/2049 (4pm) 233/2049 (7:40pm)     $12m 6:00 PM
SM:FFH 142/922               $2.8m Midnights Only
The Lion King 236/3228 (6:30pm) 294/3228 (6:20pm) 444/3228 (4:30pm) 557/3228 (4:30pm) $23m 6:00 PM
OUATIH     117/1179 (2:15pm) 159/1179 (4pm) 335/1179 (4:20pm) $5.8m 4:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw 60/1543 (5:20pm)     181/1543 (4pm)     $5.8m 7:00 PM
IT Part 2 147/2764 (9am)     239/2764 (7:10pm)     $10.5m 5:00 PM
Hustlers     45/512 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) $2.5m 6:00 PM
Downton Abbey (eps)     37/301 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) $2.2m 7:00 PM
Ad Astra     26/602 (4:30pm) 26/602 (4:30pm) 41/602 (4:30pm) $1.5m 6:00 PM
Downton Abbey     31/512 (4:30pm) 39/512 (4:30pm) 52/1015 (4:30pm) $2.1m 7:00 PM
Rambo     29/302 (4:30pm) 53/1242 (4:30pm) 58/1242 (4:30pm) $1.3m 6:00 PM
Abominable     30/255 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) 73/1969 (4:30pm) $.65m 6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week) 104/2766 (9am) 172/2766 (4:30pm)     217/3536 (4pm)   4:00 PM
Joker 328/3536 (4:20pm) 399/3536 (4pm) 542/3536 (4pm) 760/3741 (3:45pm) $13.3m 4:00 PM
Gemini Man     38/1004 (4pm) 38/1004 (4pm) 78/1004 [6:30pm] $1.55m 7:00 PM
Adams Family   (4pm) 53/1373 (4pm) 49/1373 (4pm)     $1.25m 4:00 PM
Maleficent 2 39/1154 (4pm) 42/1154 (4pm) 33/834 (4pm) 96/1425 [6pm] $2.3m 7:00 PM
Zombieland 2 51/1114 (4pm) 53/1114 (4pm) 67/1177 (4pm) 95/1478 [6pm] $2.85m 7:00 PM
Black & Blue     19/410 (4pm)     20/410 (4pm) $.68m 7:00 PM
Countdown     15/511 (4pm)     19/411 (4pm) $.52m 7:00 PM
Terminator: DF 71/1242 (4pm) 71/1242 (4pm) 76/1242 (5:30pm) 113/1242 (4pm) $2.35m 7:00 PM
Harriet 25/512 (4pm) 25/512 (4pm) 27/512 (5:30pm) 29/512 (4pm) $.6m 7:00 PM
Midway 20/512 (4pm)   (4pm)   (5:30pm)   (4pm)   7:00 PM
Dr Sleep 23/510 (4pm)   (4pm)   (5:30pm)   (4pm)   6:00 PM
Last Christmas 12/496 (4pm)   (4pm)   (5:30pm)   (4pm)   7:00 PM
Playing With Fire 18/654 (4pm)   (4pm)   (5:30pm)   (4pm)   4:00 PM

 

 


 

 

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

What Thursday is Doctor Sleep looking to get? $2.5M+?

IT1 did 9.14x the previews over ow in 2017. If DS can replicate that then 2.5m previews give 22.85 ow. Hoping it does 10-11x the previews and that they end up being closer to 2.75m.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted (edited)

Tapering off at Cinemark. Its at 14555/379399. If it continues to slow down I am thinking 18K OD PS just for previews. Menor said TLK was around 40K at T-10 and so that would be a good target to track for. I am thinking F2 will be around 3/4th of TLK PS. Once AMC opens up I can at least compare for big theaters for which I grabbed data for TLK.

But really good news is it has ginormous amount of shows for D1 and D2 already and PS is well ahead of previews sales.

 

Cin OD - overall 4329 shows 18451/733914 post 6PM 1607 shows 9543/275538
Cin D2 - overall 4364 shows 23212/735045 223682.00 post 6PM 1613 shows 3309/275478.  

 

There is a fan event at AMC but its for 10AM on Saturday. Has that happened before? Normally it happens around the time previews happen. I guess it makes sense for F2 considering the audience base will prefer Saturday Morning. I see 103 shows at AMC. None at Cinemark.

Edited by keysersoze123
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Poseidon Box Office Gold

Poseidon

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

NYC Local - ehhhh.  All under Harriet's Monday and Dr Sleep is less than half of Zombieland 2 (51)

 

NYC Local Mon   Preview Start
Midway 20/512 (4pm) 7:00 PM
Dr Sleep 23/510 (4pm) 6:00 PM
Last Christmas 12/496 (4pm) 7:00 PM
Playing With Fire 18/654 (4pm) 4:00 PM

 

 


Full chart behind cut

  Reveal hidden contents

NYC Local Mon   Tues   Wed   Thur   Previews Preview Start
Shazam!         129/2229 (Afternoon) 187/2229 (3:30pm) $5.9m 4:00 PM
Avengers: Endgame 3948/4,736 (12am)     4,853/5493 (9pm)     $60m 6:00 PM
Aladdin     98/1242 (12pm)         $7m 6:00 PM
Godzilla 2         135/1915 (7:45pm) 204/2150 (3:30pm) $6.3m 4:00 PM
X-Men: DP     103/942 (4pm) 209/942 (3:15pm) 272/942 (3:45pm) $5m 6:00 PM
SLOP 2     38/771 (4pm) 43/771 (3:15pm)     $2.3m 6:00 PM
Toy Story 4     165/2049 (4pm) 233/2049 (7:40pm)     $12m 6:00 PM
SM:FFH 142/922               $2.8m Midnights Only
The Lion King 236/3228 (6:30pm) 294/3228 (6:20pm) 444/3228 (4:30pm) 557/3228 (4:30pm) $23m 6:00 PM
OUATIH     117/1179 (2:15pm) 159/1179 (4pm) 335/1179 (4:20pm) $5.8m 4:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw 60/1543 (5:20pm)     181/1543 (4pm)     $5.8m 7:00 PM
IT Part 2 147/2764 (9am)     239/2764 (7:10pm)     $10.5m 5:00 PM
Hustlers     45/512 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) $2.5m 6:00 PM
Downton Abbey (eps)     37/301 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) $2.2m 7:00 PM
Ad Astra     26/602 (4:30pm) 26/602 (4:30pm) 41/602 (4:30pm) $1.5m 6:00 PM
Downton Abbey     31/512 (4:30pm) 39/512 (4:30pm) 52/1015 (4:30pm) $2.1m 7:00 PM
Rambo     29/302 (4:30pm) 53/1242 (4:30pm) 58/1242 (4:30pm) $1.3m 6:00 PM
Abominable     30/255 (4:30pm)   (4:30pm) 73/1969 (4:30pm) $.65m 6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week) 104/2766 (9am) 172/2766 (4:30pm)     217/3536 (4pm)   4:00 PM
Joker 328/3536 (4:20pm) 399/3536 (4pm) 542/3536 (4pm) 760/3741 (3:45pm) $13.3m 4:00 PM
Gemini Man     38/1004 (4pm) 38/1004 (4pm) 78/1004 [6:30pm] $1.55m 7:00 PM
Adams Family   (4pm) 53/1373 (4pm) 49/1373 (4pm)     $1.25m 4:00 PM
Maleficent 2 39/1154 (4pm) 42/1154 (4pm) 33/834 (4pm) 96/1425 [6pm] $2.3m 7:00 PM
Zombieland 2 51/1114 (4pm) 53/1114 (4pm) 67/1177 (4pm) 95/1478 [6pm] $2.85m 7:00 PM
Black & Blue     19/410 (4pm)     20/410 (4pm) $.68m 7:00 PM
Countdown     15/511 (4pm)     19/411 (4pm) $.52m 7:00 PM
Terminator: DF 71/1242 (4pm) 71/1242 (4pm) 76/1242 (5:30pm) 113/1242 (4pm) $2.35m 7:00 PM
Harriet 25/512 (4pm) 25/512 (4pm) 27/512 (5:30pm) 29/512 (4pm) $.6m 7:00 PM
Midway 20/512 (4pm)   (4pm)   (5:30pm)   (4pm)   7:00 PM
Dr Sleep 23/510 (4pm)   (4pm)   (5:30pm)   (4pm)   6:00 PM
Last Christmas 12/496 (4pm)   (4pm)   (5:30pm)   (4pm)   7:00 PM
Playing With Fire 18/654 (4pm)   (4pm)   (5:30pm)   (4pm)   4:00 PM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Damn, I really thought Last Christmas might break out. 

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FlashMaster659 Box Office Gold

FlashMaster659

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Tapering off at Cinemark. Its at 14555/379399. If it continues to slow down I am thinking 18K OD PS sales for previews. Menor said TLK was around 40K at T-10 and so that would be a good target to track for. I am thinking F2 will be around 3/4th of TLK PS. Once AMC opens up I can at least compare for big theaters for which I grabbed data for TLK.

But really good news is it has ginormous amount of shows for D1 and D2 already and PS is well ahead of previews sales.

 

Cin OD - overall 4329 shows 18451/733914 post 6PM 1607 shows 9543/275538
Cin D2 - overall 4364 shows 23212/735045 223682.00 post 6PM 1613 shows 3309/275478.  

 

There is a fan event at AMC but its for 10AM on Saturday. Has that happened before? Normally it happens around the time previews happen. I guess it makes sense for F2 considering the audience base will prefer Saturday Morning. I see 103 shows at AMC. None at Cinemark.

You mean 18K tickets for previews by the end of today?

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