The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[PKMLover]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Update

AMC Empire 25(Frozen Previews)

Dolby - 105/225(6PM), 49/225(845PM)

Imax - 70/303(630PM), 20/303(915PM)

2D - 6/377(7PM), 3/377(945PM)

Overall - 253/1810

 

So +42 tickets in past 8 hours. It tapered off faster than what I thought. This is one of the busiest plexes in New York City.

 

 

It seems to have low number for preview, can it have high multiply for the weekend?

[Menor the Destroyer]

I am running TFS numbers for Cinemark. Not hard to imagine this coming up decently short of TLK previews (say 16-18 million) but getting an 11-12x multi. After all I2 got almost 10x and that was a summer release.

[PKMLover]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

I am running TFS numbers for Cinemark. Not hard to imagine this coming up decently short of TLK previews (say 16-18 million) but getting an 11-12x multi. After all I2 got almost 10x and that was a summer release.

It has a chance at 16M for preview? Nice

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, Menor said:

Just saying TLK was not in the same universe as SW9 for first day either. But I don't think SW9 will be more than 50 million above it in the end. And while Thursday may be below TLK I have a feeling Friday and Saturday are running ahead.

I dont think it has showcount as of now to compete with TLK at AMC at least. Let me get the data once AMC stops the queue for Frozen tickets.

[keysersoze123]

I checked few more AMC New York theaters(Still manual as AMC is not letting in through my script. That should change by morning). Anyway few sellouts that are likely fake. For example AMC 19th St has 2 3D shows as sellouts while 2D shows have just 18 tickets for 6PM shows. Even Lincoln Square Imax at 930PM sold just 66 tickets. Didn't @captainwondyful say it was sold out?

 

Across 16 shows at AMC its at 516/4883. Definitely not a blazing start. But let us wait and see how things go.

 

At Cinemark Preview numbers are at 17514 tickets. So it sold just under 3K tickets in about 5-6 hours. We are close to EOD though Cinemark has very good presense in California which should have few more hours of PS. I think it will take another week or so to double and then there is final stretch in the last week. That depends on various factors.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I checked few more AMC New York theaters(Still manual as AMC is not letting in through my script. That should change by morning). Anyway few sellouts that are likely fake. For example AMC 19th St has 2 3D shows as sellouts while 2D shows have just 18 tickets for 6PM shows. Even Lincoln Square Imax at 930PM sold just 66 tickets. Didn't @captainwondyful say it was sold out?

 

Across 16 shows at AMC its at 516/4883. Definitely not a blazing start. But let us wait and see how things go.

 

At Cinemark Preview numbers are at 17514 tickets. So it sold just under 3K tickets in about 5-6 hours. We are close to EOD though Cinemark has very good presense in California which should have few more hours of PS. I think it will take another week or so to double and then there is final stretch in the last week. That depends on various factors.

Probably will not get TLK preview numbers with just 17.5k start. TLK (estimated) had that much in far less theaters. Adjusting for that will give 20.5 vs 17.5, and TLK started almost a week earlier. I2 previews should be the optimistic goal, and I'd be disappointed if it can't at least beat TS4 previews.

[PKMLover]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I checked few more AMC New York theaters(Still manual as AMC is not letting in through my script. That should change by morning). Anyway few sellouts that are likely fake. For example AMC 19th St has 2 3D shows as sellouts while 2D shows have just 18 tickets for 6PM shows. Even Lincoln Square Imax at 930PM sold just 66 tickets. Didn't @captainwondyful say it was sold out?

 

Across 16 shows at AMC its at 516/4883. Definitely not a blazing start. But let us wait and see how things go.

 

At Cinemark Preview numbers are at 17514 tickets. So it sold just under 3K tickets in about 5-6 hours. We are close to EOD though Cinemark has very good presense in California which should have few more hours of PS. I think it will take another week or so to double and then there is final stretch in the last week. That depends on various factors.

These tickets are for preview Thursday or for the whole weekend?

[Cap]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Didn't @captainwondyful say it was sold out?

When it first premiered at 9 AM it only had the six and the 9 PM IMAX available. Both said they were sold out. It was like that for most of the day. Then around 1 PM, the 6 o’clock IMAX disappeared in the 9 PM IMAX went on sale. So it’s been a weird day at Lincoln Square.  I have 72 tickets told for all four showings. So obviously not what I was looking for, but Ahead of maleficent.

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

When it first premiered at 9 AM it only had the six and the 9 PM IMAX available. Both said they were sold out. It was like that for most of the day. Then around 1 PM, the 6 o’clock IMAX disappeared in the 9 PM IMAX went on sale. So it’s been a weird day at Lincoln Square.  I have 72 tickets told for all four showings. So obviously not what I was looking for, but Ahead of maleficent.

Thank you. I would not worry. AMC site has been a mess today. They have still put in a queue system and they have not even put out shows at blockbuster level. I would wait for few days and I am sure things will get better.

 

That is why I would not get too excited or otherwise after half a day of PS. Its just a start. Cinemark did add shows early and put it at  a blockbuster level and it has had a good start. But how it sustains after initial burst will tell the tale. Even SW9 started at 227597 tickets at AMC and as of yesterday it sold 263695. So things will taper down. Good thing for Frozen is that journey is quite short. In another 10 days we will start final week of PS when things do speed up again.

[Legion Again]

51 minutes ago, Menor said:

I am running TFS numbers for Cinemark. Not hard to imagine... previews...18 million... getting a...12x multi. After all I2 got almost 10x and that was a summer release.

You heard it here first folks, 216M is a lock    

 

Spoiler

No but more seriously I think 16*12=192 and 18*11=198 are good very high end possibilities. I'd go more like 14*11.5 atm if pressed.

 

[cdsacken]

150-200 sure why not. Sounds good to me

Edited November 5, 2019 by cdsacken

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Tapering off at Cinemark. Its at 14555/379399. If it continues to slow down I am thinking 18K OD PS just for previews. Menor said TLK was around 40K at T-10 and so that would be a good target to track for. I am thinking F2 will be around 3/4th of TLK PS. Once AMC opens up I can at least compare for big theaters for which I grabbed data for TLK.

But really good news is it has ginormous amount of shows for D1 and D2 already and PS is well ahead of previews sales.

 

Cin OD - overall 4329 shows 18451/733914 post 6PM 1607 shows 9543/275538
Cin D2 - overall 4364 shows 23212/735045 223682.00 post 6PM 1613 shows 3309/275478.  

 

There is a fan event at AMC but its for 10AM on Saturday. Has that happened before? Normally it happens around the time previews happen. I guess it makes sense for F2 considering the audience base will prefer Saturday Morning. I see 103 shows at AMC. None at Cinemark.

Cin Prev -17514/379399 (2363 shows)
Cin OD - 25188/733754 (4328 shows)
Cin D2 - 30428/735045(4364 shows )
Cin D3 -  15701/73083(4316 shows).

 

Good increase since the afternoon especially for OD and Day 2. Day 3 moved like Previews over past 6 hours. I will update in the morning which would be 24 hours.

 

But outside Cinemark I have only looked at anecdotal data that I posted above and even at Drafthouse where shows sellout easily, thursday sales are slow but Saturday shows are filling out. Checked out few Regal theaters also is very slow including RPX shows. Regal Hacienda in bay area has not listed Imax or ScreenX. Just 2 2D and 1 3D show. So minus Cinemark the plexes have not put in lots of shows. 

[frozenheart1993]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Cin Prev -17514/379399 (2363 shows)
Cin OD - 25188/733754 (4328 shows)
Cin D2 - 30428/735045(4364 shows )
Cin D3 -  15701/73083(4316 shows).

 

Good increase since the afternoon especially for OD and Day 2. Day 3 moved like Previews over past 6 hours. I will update in the morning which would be 24 hours.

 

But outside Cinemark I have only looked at anecdotal data that I posted above and even at Drafthouse where shows sellout easily, thursday sales are slow but Saturday shows are filling out. Checked out few Regal theaters also is very slow including RPX shows. Regal Hacienda in bay area has not listed Imax or ScreenX. Just 2 2D and 1 3D show. So minus Cinemark the plexes have not put in lots of shows. 

So as far as the current situation is concerned, which first 24H  is higher between F2 and TS4?

[keysersoze123]

Just now, frozenheart1993 said:

So as far as the current situation is concerned, which first 24H  is higher between F2 and TS4?

I cannot answer that as I did not track entire chains at that time. We used to use Pulse to track back then. But we should get updates from @Porthos, @FlashMaster659 and @captainwondyful who can provide data to compare with TS4 and TLK.

[frozenheart1993]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I cannot answer that as I did not track entire chains at that time. We used to use Pulse to track back then. But we should get updates from @Porthos, @FlashMaster659 and @captainwondyful who can provide data to compare with TS4 and TLK.

thanks 

[Cap]

22 minutes ago, frozenheart1993 said:

thanks 

Toy Story has higher numbers at Lincoln Square on the first day.  But as I said, Toy Story 4 also didn't have website issues all day.

 

I didn't do any hard counts, but just eye-baling it, I want to say Frozen II does NOT look like it's frontloading at Lincoln Square.  It might be cause the website was wonky on Thursday nights -- yet Friday and Saturday looked just as solid as Thursday's sales.  Sunday went down a little.  Monday and Tuesday looked good.  Wednesday was dead.

 

As for Southern Maine Cinemagic, Frozen sold 12 tickets.  Same amount as The Lion King on its first day.  Toy Story 4 sold 15 its first day.  So, locally, Frozen's exactly on track with other Disney Family Tentpoles.  

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-45 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	194	11940	23248*	11308	48.64%

* NOTE:  A couple of theaters adjusted their seat maps in both directions resulting in a net loss of one seat overall.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

77

 

T-45 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-45	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	436.62		27	2474		0/81	8140/10614	23.31%		90.38m
TROS (adj)	n/a		69	10802		2/194	11184/21986	49.13%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

---

Estimated TROS Gross So Far:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	63.63		15159		9645		24.81m
DP2	118.59		8133		9645		22.06m
Solo	166.61		5789		9645		23.49m
JW:FK	154.87		6228		9645		23.69m
AM&tW	209.45		4605		9645		24.09m
Venom	222.86		4493		10013		22.29m
CM	102.36		10553		10802		21.19m
EG	40.53		26655		10802		24.32m
TLK	98.41		10977		10802		22.63m
It 2	199.82		5659		11308		20.98m
AVG							22.95m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

===

 

Frozen 2 next post.

[Porthos]

Frozen 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	114	15433	16334	901	5.52%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

901

 

Day One Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold Day One	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Aladdin	383.98		231	231		0/66	852/9083	2.54%		26.88m
TS4	128.74		689	689		0/97	10882/11571	5.95%		15.45m
TLK	77.13		1150	1150		0/133	15821/16971	6.78%		17.74m
Frozen 2 (adj)	n/a		887	887		0/114	13119/14006	6.33%		n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Aladdin and The Lion King both had 25 days of pre-sales and Toy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales.  In comparison Frozen 2 had 18 days of pre-sales. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Frozen 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block.

 

===

 

Thoughts on both movies days next post.

[Porthos]

What's there to say?  Just a great start for Frozen 2.  The Aladdin comp is pretty lol-worthy, but the TS4 and TLK comps point to a very strong start.

 

I will add two notes of caution, as is my wont.  First off, we're a week closer to release compared to all three comps, so a slightly stronger start should be expected.  So how much of it is calendar and how much of it is sheer demand we'll find out in due time. But I'd be remiss if I didn't mention it.

 

The other note of caution is that this isn't really dominating at the PLF screens locally.  290 out of the 901 seats sold locally were PLF priced.  That might seem like a high percentage, but on Day One I expect a bit more of a rush for the best screens in the best theaters in town.  Century Arden's XD screen and the TrueIMAX screen didn't see all that much of a sales rush, though Arden was fairly respectable.

 

How this will effect the average price per ticket remains to be seen, but it's something I'm going to keep my eye on as the sales continue.

 

---

 

As for TROS?  Just another fantastic day, relatively speaking.  Would have been even higher, but there was a group cancelation (10 tickets or so) at a theater that wasn't spread out to other showings. 

 

I have to think the Frozen 2 might have helped a bit as at least a few people thought "Well, getting my Frozen tickets, might as well get TROS at the same time."  Or maybe it's the constant promotion for The Mandalorian keeping SW in mind.  

 

Dunno.  But can't call it anything other than what it is: Another strong day for SW and a great day for Disney when both are combined.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

But outside Cinemark I have only looked at anecdotal data that I posted above and even at Drafthouse where shows sellout easily, thursday sales are slow but Saturday shows are filling out. Checked out few Regal theaters also is very slow including RPX shows. Regal Hacienda in bay area has not listed Imax or ScreenX. Just 2 2D and 1 3D show. So minus Cinemark the plexes have not put in lots of shows. 

As I mentioned in my last post, the PLFs aren't doing all that hot from my subjective perspective.  At least not for first day sales. So it's interesting to see this might be reflected somewhat nationwide.

 

The major local dine-in theatre (Studio Movie Grill) did gangbusters business... but only had one showing, which I reckon added to a rush factor.  They do tend to be late scheduling, but they still usually start with two showings at least.  The other dine-in theater has far fewer seats per screen (31 to 45), and it's doing decently. But it usually does, so nothing worth really commenting there.

 

Stepping out for a bit, so any other comments will have to wait a couple of hours.