The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[jedijake]

People are judging F2 based on the Thursday preview numbers sold NOW, right? People do realize that its first weekend is a holiday weekend for many and there are probably a LOT of folks planning to see it over the holidays. This is not a movie to be judged at all based on its Thursday numbers. It's just not going to tell us much.

 

TROS is that kind of film. Right now, TROS looks to be doing fairly well. Still a LOT of time for that one to gain momentum.

[john2000]

12 minutes ago, jedijake said:

People are judging F2 based on the Thursday preview numbers sold NOW, right? People do realize that its first weekend is a holiday weekend for many and there are probably a LOT of folks planning to see it over the holidays. This is not a movie to be judged at all based on its Thursday numbers. It's just not going to tell us much.

 

TROS is that kind of film. Right now, TROS looks to be doing fairly well. Still a LOT of time for that one to gain momentum.

people also forget, that frozen 2 is doing HUGE in many many places,especially cinemark

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/8/2019 at 4:08 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Ford v Ferrari Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

18

434

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

36

738

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST WEEK	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
74	49	3107	2.38%	8	19

 

Adjusted Terminator comp: 1.6M

 

Can't adjust for other comps I wanna use, so I'll just have Terminator for the time being

Ford v Ferrari Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

29

434

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

42

738

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
105	31	3107	3.38%	8	19

 

Adjusted Terminator comp: 1.74M

Adjusted Ad Astra comp: 1.89M

Adjusted Rambo comp: 1.84M

[cdsacken]

I'm still on the 600+ domestic train. 200 ow, 160 ow whichever. Anyway you want it that's the way you get it.

[Pinacolada]

3 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ford v Ferrari Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

29

434

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

42

738

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
105	31	3107	3.38%	8	19

 

Adjusted Terminator comp: 1.74M

Adjusted Ad Astra comp: 1.89M

Adjusted Rambo comp: 1.84M

Good so far?

Edited November 10, 2019 by Pinacolada

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, jedijake said:

People are judging F2 based on the Thursday preview numbers sold NOW, right? People do realize that its first weekend is a holiday weekend for many and there are probably a LOT of folks planning to see it over the holidays. This is not a movie to be judged at all based on its Thursday numbers. It's just not going to tell us much.

 

TROS is that kind of film. Right now, TROS looks to be doing fairly well. Still a LOT of time for that one to gain momentum.

I am not sure you understand what people are doing here. Here we look at PS data to predict previews and may be OW based on prior data. You dont have to teach us how to predict. Some of the folks here are doing this for years. For F2 I am not just putting previews data. Where possible we are looking beyond previews as well but its almost impossible to track more than that for most folks here.

 

There are some newbies who come to this thread and immediately spell doom looking at random data. They are better off ignored.

[VanillaSkies]

5 hours ago, jedijake said:

People are judging F2 based on the Thursday preview numbers sold NOW, right? People do realize that its first weekend is a holiday weekend for many and there are probably a LOT of folks planning to see it over the holidays. This is not a movie to be judged at all based on its Thursday numbers. It's just not going to tell us much.

 

TROS is that kind of film. Right now, TROS looks to be doing fairly well. Still a LOT of time for that one to gain momentum.

 

This is not correct. 

It's *second* weekend is the holiday weekend. 

U.S. Thanksgiving this year is Thursday, Nov 28th while Black Friday is Nov 29th. 

Frozen opens on November 22nd. 

I actually think this fact bodes well for it's legs beyond the first weekend. 

[Inceptionzq]

2 hours ago, Pinacolada said:

Good so far?

Not 100% sure, but I don’t think this movie will be preview heavy. I’d say low 20s looks safe right now.

[keysersoze123]

SW9 Update

 

Quote

 

AMC Prev - overall 5067 shows 270121/846545 4039812.67 post 6PM 4247 shows 246532/707083 3859135.26

AMC OD overall 5291 shows 165287/1082198 2643231.43 post 6PM 2440 shows 101612/500515 1723563.04

AMC D2 - overall 5190 shows 131036/1063788 1971624.22 post 6PM 2413 shows 52326/495618 909536.70

AMC D3 - overall 5077 shows 62875/1039501 947820.72 post 6PM 2371 shows 20260/487255 358002.39

 

Cin Prev - overall 2980 shows 171378/440825 2210426.00 post 6PM 2917 shows 164026/431911 2078173.00
Cin OD - overall 4310 shows 115738/707979 1334167.00 post 6PM 1644 shows 63955/278594 833474.00
CIN D2 - overall 4328 shows 85811/713556 944489.00 post 6PM 1654 shows 24549/280469 328799.00
CIN D3 - overall 4269 shows 36363/706865 386630.00 post 6PM 1580 shows 8152/270003 103008.00

 

Its making slow progress but numbers are Yuge. You are talking about 9m at AMC and 5m at Cinemark(based on how Drafthouse and other chains are doing AMC/Cin wont be more than 30%)  and % of ticket sold is also big especially for previews and OD. Shows are slowly getting added. But real action will start 2 weeks to release when I expect shows to increase dramatically. I am expecting > 100m in PS before this movie is out. That aint no mean feat.
 

[Eric Atreides]

Frozen II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	827	15,444	5.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 57

 

Comp

6.921x of Maleficent 12 days before release (15.92M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.375x of Lion King (8.64M)

 

Not much else to say at this point, but I do think I might get rid of the Maleficent comp. Frozen already went ahead of its final total a couple days ago, so it'll start to get pretty unrealistic soon. Might not do it now, but don't be shocked if I drop it.

[Eric Atreides]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report  T-40 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	164	8,219	28,932	28.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 21

 

Comp

4.321x of Once Upon’s final count (25.06M)

2.373x of It: Chapter Two (24.91M)

1.674x of Joker (22.26M)

 

Adjusted Comp

 

0.686x of Lion King (15.78M)

3.256x of Hobbs & Shaw (18.89M)

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

$14.5mn pre-sales for weekend

Say $16.5mn overall. Using the normal ratios, that gives just under $40mn Approx of overall pre-sales so far, with previews at $16mn Approx & $36mn weekend. I wonder, how much AMC and Cinemark you are covering.

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-40 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	204	12276	24000	11724	48.85%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

58

 

T-40 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-40	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	428.60		19	2615		0/81	7999/10614	24.64%		88.72m
TROS (adj)	n/a		56	11208		2/204	11530/22738	49.29%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

---

Estimated TROS Gross So Far:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	66.09		15159		10019		25.78m
DP2	123.19		8133		10019		22.91m
Solo	173.07		5789		10019		24.40m
JW:FK	160.87		6228		10019		24.61m
AM&tW	217.57		4605		10019		25.02m
Venom	231.63		4493		10407		23.16m
CM	106.21		10553		11208		21.98m
EG	42.05		26655		11208		25.23m
TLK	102.10		10977		11208		23.48m
It 2	207.17		5659		11724		21.75m
AVG							23.83m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

===

 

Infinity War returns as a T-x comp starting on Monday.  It'll still be in its initial ramp up stage for it, but, eh.  Start of the week is as good as time as any.

[keysersoze123]

Since its late I wont be posting full F2 update tonight. So I would do it again tomorrow. Anyway I am expecting weekend to be slower.

 

Just Previews

 

Cin Prev - 31944/380967 $392446 2375 shows +2053

 

That is 80% of yesterday. Still crazy good.

Edited November 10, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Porthos]

Frozen 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	118	14932	16562	1630	9.84%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	78
Total Seats Sold Today	121

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp (LOL at this stage due to one-week difference in sale length)

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Aladdin	182.62		46	863		0/70	9134/9997	8.63%		12.78m
TS4	96.87		36	1627		0/90	10684/12311	13.22%		11.62m
TLK	58.54		133	2692		0/187	17705/20397	13.20%		13.47m
Frozen 2 (adj)	n/a		113	1576		0/118	12658/14234	11.07%		n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Aladdin and The Lion King both had 25 days of pre-sales and Toy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales.  In comparison Frozen 2 had 18 days of pre-sales. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Frozen 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block.

[keysersoze123]

40 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Say $16.5mn overall. Using the normal ratios, that gives just under $40mn Approx of overall pre-sales so far, with previews at $16mn Approx & $36mn weekend. I wonder, how much AMC and Cinemark you are covering.

Probably 80-85%%. Lots of non reserved theaters plus sellouts are taken out at AMC. Plus I have seen smaller chains being very strong. SW plays strong everywhere. Not just big cities. I posted Alamo update at many cities and that is very strong as well.

[FlashMaster659]

My updates will be coming in the morning

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 Update

 

Its making slow progress but numbers are Yuge. You are talking about 9m at AMC and 5m at Cinemark(based on how Drafthouse and other chains are doing AMC/Cin wont be more than 30%)  and % of ticket sold is also big especially for previews and OD. Shows are slowly getting added. But real action will start 2 weeks to release when I expect shows to increase dramatically. I am expecting > 100m in PS before this movie is out. That aint no mean feat.
 

No way the AMC/Cin percentage will be as low as 30%. We're still a month out, the big 3 will be at least 75% of ps (they were 75% until the final week for Endgame which also did huge business in smaller chains).

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, Menor said:

No way the AMC/Cin percentage will be as low as 30%. We're still a month out, the big 3 will be at least 75% of ps (they were 75% until the final week for Endgame which also did huge business in smaller chains).

we will see. How do you even know what is the % of Regal. We have never had any data. Only data we got was from Wang for AMC.

 

Number I am extrapolating is from data over past month that I have gotten for movies I have tracked at AMC/Cin.

Edited November 10, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

we will see. How do you even know what is the % of Regal. We have never had any data. Only data we got was from Wang for AMC.

Deadline reported the Monday of EG release week that the top 3 chains were 75% of presales. Regal % should be between AMC and Cinemark just based on size.