The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[jedijake]

3 minutes ago, ZackM said:

I've decided to get more ambitious and found some more theater chains to get data from in Michigan...Here's data for TROS.  I'll try to get Frozen 2 data for all of these theaters starting tomorrow.

 

The Rise of Skywalker - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Premiere Night Seat Report: T-39 days and counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	3	232	29424	41155	11731	28.50%

 

 

There are a boatload of huge 3D shows around Detroit that are completely empty.  Someone needs to make the call and just kill 3D.

I've noticed the same thing @ZackMI totally understand it for home markets (who wants to watch TV with goggles at home) but 3D has really lost its hold in theaters.

[Menor the Destroyer]

24 minutes ago, jedijake said:

What were the %'s sold for TFA and TLJ at this point?

 

All of this $180-$200 million OW talk is rather depressing. And for those saying it could happen, what are your expected preview numbers for Thursday?

For me, about $40 million.

[Porthos]

23 minutes ago, ZackM said:

There are a boatload of huge 3D shows around Detroit that are completely empty.  Someone needs to make the call and just kill 3D.

 

Sacramento as of last night:

 

2D Seats	9193/17597	52.24%
3D Seats	 2233/5089	43.88%
PLF Seats	 4868/7515	64.78%
Stand Seats 	6856/16485	41.59%
								
PLF - 2D	 3550/5111	69.46%
PLF - 3D	 1318/2404	54.83%
								
3D Perct	 19.05% of all seats sold		
PLF Perct	 41.52% of all seats sold		

Actually.... doing pretty decently on 3D, all things considered.  It's being helped by one of the TrueIMAX showings being in 3D (91% of seats sold at that showing at the mo) and PLF in general.  Even so, there's still about 900 3D tickets sold on the non-PLF screens.

 

is still far behind 2D tickets though, at a little more than 4 to 1 margin.

Edited November 10, 2019 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

Its no way certainty man. All that is based on extrapolation and movie business is much more complex as all it needs is change in WoM & Saturday and Sunday could change things.

 

180-200 is based off 2 assumed facts & assumption.

1. First 24 Hours number, which are usually coming around 10% of First Weekend for mega films. EG 10.35%, TFA 10.08%.

2. The pre-sale in last 19 days are just pointing to $80mn Approx final, that could abruptly change in final week based on reviews and buzz. TRS is currently $37mn while Endgame during is 1/3rd PS run i.e. 8 days was around $80-85mn Approx & finaled at $150mn plus. 

3. Based on assumption that as it is coming from a bad reception film, it will be having a drop. I love TLJ but world doesn't seem to.

There was a post in SW thread, which I pretty much agree that TLJ doesn't leave much anticipation for TRS. I agree to that, TLJ felt like a complete film to me and I am not able to convince myself, yet, that Kylo & Rey or Reylo is gonna be really good vs bad. Had Snoke not died, it would have been different. The coming back of Palapatine seems like is big thing for many but seems like a gimmick to me and not helping the fact is uneventful teaser & trailer so far. Ffs the entire first teaser trailer hype was about Palapatine, which isn't positive in my eyes at first place.

 

In the end Disney sure understands this and may be that's what stopping the movie per year thing. 

Edited November 11, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[Legion Again]

42x4.5 or something sounds totally plausible to me, but I think over 200 is still more likely than not.

[charlie Jatinder]

46 minutes ago, Menor said:

For me, about $40 million.

I am also thinking around that. 37-40.

 

At high end

 

40

52

57

51

 

200

 

At low end

 

37

47

52

45

 

181

Edited November 11, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[jedijake]

37 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

I am also thinking around that. 37-40.

 

At high end

 

40

52

57

51

 

200

 

At low end

 

37

47

52

45

 

181

I was on the $195-$200 million OW "it's all TLJ's fault" kick for a while. Then I woke up and realized how ridiculous that was. I think a FSS of less than $170 million (minus previews) is overly pessimistic for no realistic reason. We have NO pre-sale numbers right now other than the manually counted box office tallies people are doing for Thursday previews. Some have said that in the week(s) leading up to release, the totals for previews could very well double.

 

That said, $45-$50 million is my Thursday preview prediction.

Th: $45-$50 m

Fri: $55-$60 m

Sat: $62-$67 m

Sun: $50-$55 m

OW: $212 m-$232 m

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Th: $45-$50 m

Fri: $55-$60 m

Sat: $62-$67 m

Sun: $50-$55 m

OW: $212 m-$232 m

In low end your FSS is <$170mn

😛

[jedijake]

7 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

In low end your FSS is <$170mn

😛

Oh you're right. Okay, I will change my Sunday to $53-$58 million.

 

My new OW range is $215-$235 million. Those numbers look better anyway.

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

22 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I was on the $195-$200 million OW "it's all TLJ's fault" kick for a while. Then I woke up and realized how ridiculous that was. I think a FSS of less than $170 million (minus previews) is overly pessimistic for no realistic reason. We have NO pre-sale numbers right now other than the manually counted box office tallies people are doing for Thursday previews. Some have said that in the week(s) leading up to release, the totals for previews could very well double.

 

That said, $45-$50 million is my Thursday preview prediction.

Th: $45-$50 m

Fri: $55-$60 m

Sat: $62-$67 m

Sun: $50-$55 m

OW: $212 m-$232 m

We have almost chain-level data  from scrapers that we can roughly extrapolate to nationwide data. Those of us who are thinking under 200 million aren't trying to be pessimistic, we're just calling things as we see them. 

[dxmatrixdt]

.

Edited June 25, 2020 by abusive brainwashed Christ

[ThomasNicole]

I think legs will be pretty good for TROS, so i don’t care if it will debut at $ 200M or $ 185M.

 

Still expecting total to be O/U TLJ

[Inceptionzq]

4 hours ago, JB33 said:

If TRoS falls below $200M OW that would be pretty depressing, in all honesty. I mean, I certainly GET IT. I would just be sad. Tough to see Star Wars fall like that. As much as I love the MCU Star Wars is still #1 me. Always will be.

I want TRoS to make all the money, but honestly I mostly just want it to make enough so Disney isn’t afraid to make more movies.

[Eric Duncan]

Frozen II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	865	15,444	5.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 38

 

Comp

6.553x of Maleficent 11 days before release (15.07M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.367x of Lion King (8.64M)

 

Hm. Maybe I expected too much, but I didn't expect the comps to drop. That doesn't make it a bad day by any means, but it's not all that exciting either. Still gunning for decent money tho

[RockyMountain]

2 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

I want TRoS to make all the money, but honestly I mostly just want it to make enough so Disney isn’t afraid to make more movies.

 

Oh no need to worry about that. Even if it falls slightly under what people were hoping we would still be talking about a movie that opens at or near 200m.  Even if you include Solo the Star Wars movies under Disney are averaging over a billion dollars per film. People are just guessing right now based on the limited data that is out there.

 

Really probably the main reason why they aren't gung ho on announcing new films right now is because they want to sale their streaming service and Star Wars is one of the main properties they are using to sale that service. 

I wouldn't be surprised if ticket sales pick up even more starting just next week for TROS because the Mandalorian is being released on Tuesday. It's story will have little to nothing to do with the story of the ST but it's still a part of Star Wars and will be great advertising for the upcoming movie.

 

On a side note I have really enjoyed looking over this thread as people are good at sticking with facts on here and don't try to turn the conversation into a gossip ring like a lot of forum threads turn into.

[Eric Duncan]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-39 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	164	8,247	28,932	28.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 28

 

Comp

4.336x of Once Upon’s final count (25.15M)

2.381x of It: Chapter Two (25M)

1.680x of Joker (22.34M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.689x of Lion King (15.85M)

3.271x of Hobbs & Shaw (18.97M)

[RockyMountain]

6 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Its no way certainty man. All that is based on extrapolation and movie business is much more complex as all it needs is change in WoM & Saturday and Sunday could change things.

 

180-200 is based off 2 assumed facts & assumption.

1. First 24 Hours number, which are usually coming around 10% of First Weekend for mega films. EG 10.35%, TFA 10.08%.

2. The pre-sale in last 19 days are just pointing to $80mn Approx final, that could abruptly change in final week based on reviews and buzz. TRS is currently $37mn while Endgame during is 1/3rd PS run i.e. 8 days was around $80-85mn Approx & finaled at $150mn plus. 

3. Based on assumption that as it is coming from a bad reception film, it will be having a drop. I love TLJ but world doesn't seem to.

There was a post in SW thread, which I pretty much agree that TLJ doesn't leave much anticipation for TRS. I agree to that, TLJ felt like a complete film to me and I am not able to convince myself, yet, that Kylo & Rey or Reylo is gonna be really good vs bad. Had Snoke not died, it would have been different. The coming back of Palapatine seems like is big thing for many but seems like a gimmick to me and not helping the fact is uneventful teaser & trailer so far. Ffs the entire first teaser trailer hype was about Palapatine, which isn't positive in my eyes at first place.

 

In the end Disney sure understands this and may be that's what stopping the movie per year thing. 

So are you saying that TROS has 37m worth of tickets sold as of now or are you predicting that it will have 37m worth of tickets sold for Thursday previews by time of release? If it has 37m sold now I'd say that is pretty good when we still have a month and a half left as TLJ ended up having 45m worth of previews.

 

I say that if the reviews end up being really good we could see OW being just as high if not higher than TLJ. If reviews are along the lines of what Solo's were then I could see it having an OW of around 180-200. 

Edited November 11, 2019 by RockyMountain

[lorddemaxus]

44 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

So are you saying that TROS has 37m worth of tickets sold as of now or are you predicting that it will have 37m worth of tickets sold for Thursday previews by time of release? If it has 37m sold now I'd say that is pretty good when we still have a month and a half left as TLJ ended up having 45m worth of previews.

 

I say that if the reviews end up being really good we could see OW being just as high if not higher than TLJ. If reviews are along the lines of what Solo's were then I could see it having an OW of around 180-200. 

He means 37 mil for Thursday+Friday presales atm 

[RockyMountain]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

He means 37 mil for Thursday+Friday presales atm 

Ahh ok thanks. Where are people getting those numbers anyway? Is there official data out there that says there have been that many tickets sold already or are people just guestimatting those amounts?

[keysersoze123]

Frozen 2 update

 

Cin Prev - 33979/380967 2375 shows +2035 (since yesterday night)
Cin OD - 54646/733937 $583472  4330 shows +7510 (+48 hours)
CIN D2 - 67404/732956 $646557 4350 shows +10922 (+48 hours)
CiN D3 - 35877/729705 $331224 4305 shows 1015PM 11/10 +6253 (+48 hours)

 

Its averaging around 14K per day over past 2 days. Outstanding numbers at CIN. AMC is just not working for this movie. I will provide update for NYC theaters tomorrow. But anectdotal check shows things are moving slowly. I find it hard to understand this disparity. Not just AMC even Regal seems week in NYC. 7PM RPX showing at Regal Essex is at 7/144(7PM). It has no shows at Regal E-Walk which is surprising.

 

Anyway at CIN we are looking at hitting 200K tickets for OW by tomorrow. That is great.