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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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1 hour ago, Poseidon said:

Am I living in a parallel Universe? We are talking about a family movie with a popular movie going holiday after the weekend and we are talking about a bad situation here, because it's not selling like a Marvel-Movie for Previews? 

 

Calm down. This is doing huge numbers.

yes, people cannot distinguish between movies which are heavy on PS aka fandom rush (Marvel, SW, etc) and movies that have solid presales but make big bulk of business from walk ups and especially on Saturday (family flicks). Frozen 2 is a Saturday player not Thursday evening rush player. 

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1 minute ago, ZackM said:

The AMC data in Michigan shows a pretty clear trend for TROS.  Evening 2D shows are packed.  3D and late night shows are very much not packed, especially near Detroit.

 

Yeah little that I do know about box office stuff is that people are losing favor with 3D showings. By the way recognize you from the Jedi Council forums box office thread. Didn't post much at all there but viewed it occasionally. A little too much gossip that goes on there and not enough solid data. Kind of vowed that I wouldn't look at that thread again once they went through several pages of conversation about google trends (you can find any kind of data you want to off of google trends to fit any particular narrative you want to follow).

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7 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Lol, I am sure it does get a little irritating. As one of those noobs though just trying to figure out some of the codes and phrases that people are talking in. For instance when we say that a movie has sold 37m so far is there any official data out there currently that says it has sold that much or is it just people predicting that it has sold around that much?

Estimating from AMC and Cinemark data, not official but should be in the ballpark of the actual number.

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Just now, Menor said:

Also this is for all days (Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday and later weekdays) not just Thursday or Thursday+Friday.

Yeah figured that. If it was currently at 37m just for Thursday previews right now there would be no reason to think that it wouldn't pass 200m OW. As TLJ ended up with a total of 45m for Thursday and it had a 220m OW.

 

Is there any data out there that says how much TLJ and TFA had made in presales after three weeks of presales being available? I think that would be a better trend to follow than trying to compare it to Endgame (a movie that had a 350m OW). 

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50 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Also the continued low AMC data is just so odd I have decided to hope its an error in the official online reporting stuff from their end (its not I know, just so odd I dont have anything else to think about regarding it.) 

What's the latest numbers @keysersoze123. Are the bookings low % wise or you are covering less shows than usual?

 

 

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1 hour ago, Menor said:

I think lower Friday, higher Saturday and Sunday

I just counted Southern Maine Cinemagic's IMAX Screen, since that is the screen that's the most pre-sale heavy.  The standards are all walk-up gravy boats.  I also happen to have Endgame data for the whole weekend.  So.  For Giggles.  

 

SMCM IMAX SCREEN FROZEN II ENDGAME ESTIMATE
Thursday 7 275 1.53M
Friday 60 450 21.00M
Saturday 72 475 16.56M
Sunday 49 325 13.63M

 

 

And then I thought, WTF, I do have the numbers:

 

SMCM IMAX SCREEN TROS ENDGAME ESTIMATE
Thursday 267 275 58.25M
Friday 400 450 140.00M
Saturday 232 475 53.37M
Sunday 140 325 38.94M

 

(Friday includes Previews)

 

So in terms of front-loading at my theater:

 

FRONTLOADING ENDGAME FROZEN II TROS
Friday PVs 38.10% PVs 11.66% PVs 66.75%
Saturday -30.60% 20% -42.00%
Sunday -17.30% -31.95% -39.66%

 

Frozen II not front-loading is gonna make for a tense weekend.  Saturday will make or break my heart.  It's absolutely playing like both a female and a family movie.  We're going to see it.  But we're going to see it when it's convenient to /our schedules/. (I'm still the only ticket for the 8:30PM IMAX on Thursday, so, private screening?  Sounds cool.)

 

Whereas, Star Wars, Um.  It's still very early.  It's almost too early.  That said, Wow is this front-loading.  That's like... you know... that other thing the we still don't talk about even though it's been three years front-loading.  (Don't say it, let's not speak it into existence).

 

 

 

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Also, I will totally accept 7 - 60 - 72 - 49 for Frozen II's weekend.  188M gets it the November OW Record and beats I2's Animation Record.  Works for me.  I would love 193M for Reasons, but I'm not being picky.

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2 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

 

       
       
       
       
       

 

 

Whereas, Star Wars, Um.  It's still very early.  It's almost too early.  That said, Wow is this front-loading.  That's like... you know... that other thing the we still don't talk about even though it's been three years front-loading.  (Don't say it, let's not speak it into existence).

 

 

 

 

  Makes since for a movie that is still over a month out. Probably 95% of the people who are choosing to get tickets this far out are getting them for Thursday.

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8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

AMC is not working. its rerouting requests and that breaks things at my end.I have data for for 1034 shows and current number is 22087/218105. That is quite low for a blockbuster.

That's not too bad actually. The % is in line with other trackers which is pointing I guess toward $12-14 million finish for previews. Actually a better % than Cinemark.

Edited by Menor
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4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Actually a better % than Cinemark

Yeah that was what I wanted to know, it's currently at 20 per show admits, which is more than 15 per show of Cinemark. We have few individual AMCs tracked, is showcount less than normal at your place? @Porthos @Eric Plus @captainwondyful @TalismanRing @FlashMaster659

I doubt however, so I guess AMC ain't a reason to worry.

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Counted today at 10am EST.
Ford v Ferrari:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 68 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 85 (total tickets sold for Friday, 5 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 16 / 52 (8 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 33 / 72 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 88 / 52 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 21 / 21 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 5 / 19 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 30 / 18 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 184 / 262 (10 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 47 / 57 (10 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 46 / 218 (8 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 10 theaters till today for Thursday: 538 and for Friday: 856.
I'm not sure which films are the best comps. Compared to some (sequel) action films its numbers look already really good, e.g. AhF had at that time 278/176. T6 had on Monday 875/1.265 (but with bad jumps from then on), Once Upon a Time had 1.469/1.231 and Good Boys had but on Wednesday 766/669. Because it's an original film I think these are good numbers.

Charlie's Angels:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 27 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 24 (total tickets sold for Friday, 6 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 10 / 30 (8 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 11 / 19 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 25 / 16 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 1 / 3 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 1 / 5 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 3 / 8 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 39 / 71 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 2 / 13 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 21 / 21 (5 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 10 theaters till today for Thursday: 140 and for Friday: 210.
I have to find good comps yet (e.g. The Kitchen had on Monday 0/216, Black and Blue had on Wednesday 182/202) but it clearly has to improve for a decent weekend.

The Good Liar (no Thursday showtimes):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): -
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 1 (5 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 4 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 3 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 25 / 34 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): -
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 13 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 2 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 10 (5 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 8 theaters till today for Friday: 33.
Very muted so far but it's a film for an older audience and the trailer is not boring IMO.
The Art of Racing in the Rain had on Monday at that time 62/66 sold tickets, The Kitchen 0/216, Blinded By the Light on Wednesday 0/95.

Edited by el sid
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Just now, RockyMountain said:

 

  Makes since for a movie that is still over a month out. Probably 95% of the people who are choosing to get tickets this far out are getting them for Thursday.

Recent SW films tend toward the front loaded - not as much as Twilight around the non summer Potters

 

Movie Release Day Late
show
box office
($M)
Pre-
weekend
Box Office
Opening
Day
($M)
Opening
Weekend
($M)
OD
Multiplier
OW
Multiplier
Avengers 4 - Endgame Friday 60 0 157.5 357.1 2.6 5.95
Star Wars 7 - Force Awakens Friday 57 0 119.1 248 2.1 4.35
Star Wars 8 - The Last Jedi Friday 45 0 104.7 220 2.3 4.88
Harry Potter 8 - Deathly Hallows 2 Friday 43.5 0 91.1 169.2 2.1 3.89
Avengers 3 - Infinity War Friday 39 0 106.3 257.7 2.7 6.6
Batman 3 - Dark Knight Rises Friday 30.6 0 75.8 160.9 2.5 5.35
Twilight 5 - Breaking Dawn 2 Friday 30.4 0 71.2 141.1 2.3 4.64
Twilight 4 - Breaking Dawn 1 Friday 30.25 0 71.6 138.1 2.4 4.56
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Friday 29 0 71.1 155.1 2.5 5.3
Superman 2 - Batman vs Superman Friday 27.7 0 81.6 166 2.9 5.99
Avengers 2 - Age of Ultron Friday 27.6 0 84.4 191.3 3.1 6.9
Twilight 2 - New Moon Friday 26.3 0 72.7 142.8 2.8 5.43
Hunger Games 2 - Catching Fire Friday 25.25 0 71 158.1 2.8 6.3
Black Panther (MD Monday) Friday 25.2 0 75.9 242.2 3 9.6
Captain America 3 - Civil War Friday 25 0 75.5 179.1 3 7.164
Harry Potter 7 - Deathly Hallows 1 Friday 24 0 61.7 125 2.6 5.2
Lion King (Remake) Friday 23 0 77.9 191.8 3.4 8.34
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25 minutes ago, Menor said:

That's not too bad actually. The % is in line with other trackers which is pointing I guess toward $12-14 million finish for previews. Actually a better % than Cinemark.

AMC has some of the biggest Plexes in huge metropolis. for eg joker sold more than 1000 tickets in 1st 24 hours at Empire 25. Lincoln Sq is also something similar. LA/SF all have big Plexes that fill up fast for blockbusters. Frozen seem to buck the trend. But let us wait until next monday and hopefully AMC works like its doing for other movies.

 

Also I checked for updated show count(only reserved seating shows).

 

Frozen show count
Previews - 1529
OD - 3508
Day 2 - 3546

 

That is still quite low. But as I said above let us wait until next week.

Edited by keysersoze123
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41 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Yeah that was what I wanted to know, it's currently at 20 per show admits, which is more than 15 per show of Cinemark. We have few individual AMCs tracked, is showcount less than normal at your place? @Porthos @Eric Plus @captainwondyful @TalismanRing @FlashMaster659

I doubt however, so I guess AMC ain't a reason to worry.

Show count for what? Frozen show count for Thursday is way down at Lincoln Square. The no Dolbys is a big red siren. It is normal at Cinemagic. 
 

For Star Wars is is basically where TLK and AEG are at both locations. 

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1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

Yeah that was what I wanted to know, it's currently at 20 per show admits, which is more than 15 per show of Cinemark. We have few individual AMCs tracked, is showcount less than normal at your place? @Porthos @Eric Plus @captainwondyful @TalismanRing @FlashMaster659

I doubt however, so I guess AMC ain't a reason to worry.

Ontario Mills 30 has Frozen 2 showtimes way under TLK. Also either yesterday or the day before it just passed TS4's first day sales.

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Frozen Previews AMC New York

 

1340/8698 (39 shows).

 

AMC Empire 25(496/1810 6 shows)

AMC Lincoln Square(158/1164 3 shows)

 

Very low show count and no show is at almost sold out state as well. Good news is I have triggered Day 2 ticket sales and hopefully we will get data for majority of shows. But since I am doing it without launching multiple process it will take 3-4 hours.

 

Adding link to @captainwondyful update around similar day for TLK.

 

 

Edited by keysersoze123
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At last I have some macro data from AMC for F2.


F2 Day 2(since I thought this would be most important day from OW perspective).

overall 3535 shows 64675/742277  post 6PM 1650 shows 15204/350817

Special Dolby Screening(103 shows) - 8738/19724

Overall - 73413/762001

 

Just above Cinemark Day 2. normally Cinemark is like 60% of AMC. Still big numbers considering there is 12.5 days to go for D2 shows.

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