The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TLK]

Trades are underestimating FvF. I know that the presales aren't all that great but Midway didn't need any presales to make almost $20 million last week and this is aiming for the same demo.

[filmlover]

It's really kinda amazing how much of a feast or famine, mostly just famine, year this has been for WB with The Good Liar looking to be their third loser in as many weeks. Hopefully Richard Jewell and Just Mercy close their 2019 out on a positive note.

[Pinacolada]

5 minutes ago, TLK said:

Trades are underestimating FvF. I know that the presales aren't all that great but Midway didn't need any presales to make almost $20 million last week and this is aiming for the same demo.

I think they're worried about getting burned right after Doctor Sleep last week

[JB33]

Besides Frozen II (painfully obvious) and maybe Knives Out, what a dreadful November this is looking like. November is usually when the box office really revs up, culminating in the Christmas holiday bonanza. Instead it's just....a rather ordinary month with underperformers galore.

Edited November 14, 2019 by JB33

[keysersoze123]

Charlie's Angels Girls Night Out.

AMC  - 5093/14001 $68056
CIN  - 1510/5616 $17892

 

Should add 250K to previews. More important is impact from WOM perspective. I hope the fanbase likes it and it has good walkins. Only time will tell. I will update with Thursday preview PS soon.

Edited November 14, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Old Spice]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

It's really kinda amazing how much of a feast or famine, mostly just famine, year this has been for WB with The Good Liar looking to be their third loser in as many weeks. Hopefully Richard Jewell and Just Mercy close their 2019 out on a positive note.

If Jewell is anywhere near as good as that trailer... 👍

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

1 hour ago, JB33 said:

Besides Frozen II (painfully obvious) and maybe Knives Out, what a dreadful November this is looking like. November is usually when the box office really revs up, culminating in the Christmas holiday bonanza. Instead it's just....a rather ordinary month with underperformers galore.

 

It has been like this the whole year, tbh. One smash hit that carries the whole month, and everything else disappoints/flops.

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

It has been like this the whole year, tbh. One smash hit that carries the whole month, and everything else disappoints/flops.

September had a few hits though.

[keysersoze123]

Charlie's Angels Previews

AMC - 5794/179740 $867451002 shows
CIN - 2040/157395 $23975 1144 shows

 

Ford vs Ferrari Previews

AMC - 13397/156705 $213995
CIN - 7901/163885 $98462

 

I would hope Ford triples this number by night tomorrow and CA needs to go lot higher. I am thinking 1m previews for CA and 2-2.5m for ford. I have a feeling ford will do well this weekend.

Edited November 14, 2019 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, TLK said:

Trades are underestimating FvF. I know that the presales aren't all that great but Midway didn't need any presales to make almost $20 million last week and this is aiming for the same demo.

At the same point Ford PS is like 3x Midway PS. That said I wont say that Ford will gross 50m OW 🙂 But I am feeling good about 30m this weekend.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Frozen 2 Update(T-9)

AMC Prev -  35905/311973 (1540 shows) 11/12 +1957
Cin Prev - 38276/383978 $467584 (2405 shows) +2219

 

CIN is slightly ahead and has around 12% higher run rate as well. I think we have to wait until next wave of ramp up(show count) before AMC overtakes CIN. But that should happen before release.

As I posted earlier you need 350k+ between the 2 chains for Frozen 2 to hit 10m previews. Definitely can happen.

Frozen 2 update (T-9)

AMC Prev - 38492/319226 1601 shows  +2587

AMC OD - overall 3533 shows 55239/747761 post 6PM 1698 shows 33187/360129 +4080

AMC D2 - 83533/764974 (3653 shows ) post 6PM 1645 shows 17609/349526  +4814

AMC D3 - overall 3540 shows 44650/746610 515555.68 0.00 post 6PM 3527 shows 44538/743935 +2349

 

Cin Prev - 40334/377539  2365 shows  +2058

Cin OD - overall 4318 shows 63006/732249 post 6PM 1601 shows 32484/274936 +3925
Cin D2 - overall 4343 shows 79403/732036 post 6PM 1605 shows 10153/274639 +6608
CIN D3 - overall 4296 shows 42668/727372 post 6PM 1564 shows 3244/268026 +3889

 

Good day again. D1 to D3 data is from this afternoon. Overall ticket sales are almost the same across the 2 chains though leads vary with AMC winning D2 and D3 and CIN winning Previews and OD. I am expecting AMC to overtake CIN within next couple of days. Overall PS for OW is around 4.3m between the two chains.

Edited November 14, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Frozen 2 update (T-9)

AMC Prev - 38492/319226 1601 shows  +2587

AMC OD - overall 3533 shows 55239/747761 post 6PM 1698 shows 33187/360129 +4080

AMC D2 - 83533/764974 (3653 shows ) post 6PM 1645 shows 17609/349526  +4814

AMC D3 - overall 3540 shows 44650/746610 515555.68 0.00 post 6PM 3527 shows 44538/743935 +2349

 

Cin Prev - 40334/377539  2365 shows  +2058

Cin OD - overall 4318 shows 63006/732249 post 6PM 1601 shows 32484/274936 +3925
Cin D2 - overall 4343 shows 79403/732036 post 6PM 1605 shows 10153/274639 +6608
CIN D3 - overall 4296 shows 42668/727372 post 6PM 1564 shows 3244/268026 +3889

 

Good day again. D1 to D3 data is from this afternoon. Overall ticket sales are almost the same across the 2 chains though leads vary with AMC winning D2 and D3 and CIN winning Previews and OD. I am expecting AMC to overtake CIN within next couple of days. Overall PS for OW is around 4.3m between the two chains.

Cin OD is starting to fall down to earth (TLK had 59930 one day after this) but D2 and D3 are just insane. With reviews tomorrow, I could see a bump if they're good.

Edited November 14, 2019 by Menor

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Cin OD is starting to fall down to earth (TLK had 59930 at a similar point) but D2 and D3 are just insane.

its expected. TLK OD should take the lead but F2 sat/sun will be better. I wish AMC was on board as well. Some of the biggest plexes are still under performing big time.

 

Empire 25 - 563/1810

Lincoln Square - 211/1164  (This is the worst)

Metreon(SF) - no release at all !!!

Universal AMC(LA) - 366/1709

 

I think acceleration at AMC will happen only early next week when I expect shows to increase big time.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Where do we think Frozen 2's 5 day opening trajectory will be at based off these tracking numbers? 

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

Where do we think Frozen 2's 5 day opening trajectory will be at based off these tracking numbers? 

its not having 5 day OW. its just regular thursday evening release. Are you looking for gross till 1st tuesday. I am not tracking its Mon/Tuesday yet but its not a holiday though should behave more like summer weekdays. I would say 1.25x OW as of tuesday. You can do the math based on where you think OW will end up at.

[keysersoze123]

Quick Update on SW9

 

SW9 Previews

AMC Prev - 274449/847479(5072 shows) 4104358.16
Cin Prev - 175432/442028( 2993 shows ) 2259766.00

 

Chugging along selling around 1000 tickets per day.

[keysersoze123]

Last update for today.

 

Ford vs Ferrari OD

AMC - AMC OD - overall 2157 shows 21801/428138 339573.67 post 6PM 1249 shows 17342/247454 280954.39.

CIN - overall 2240 shows 16748/366218 190858.00 post 6PM 998 shows 11610/163129 144094.00

 

That is really strong as we have another day of PS. CIN is especially strong as OD PS is more than double previews PS.I definitely think this will hit double digit true friday and should hit 32-33m OW at worst. if walk-ins are really good this will breakout. I could see something like 35/140 run with great WOM.

 

I will look at CA OD tomorrow. I am not optimistic about its prospects.

Edited November 14, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-36 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	205	12246	24158*	11912	49.31%

* One theater adjusted their seat maps, resulting in two more seats overall being available.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

38

 

T-36 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-36	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	424.14		21	2684		0/81	7932/10616	25.28%		87.80m
TROS (adj)	n/a		41	11384		2/205	11512/22896	49.72%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

 

T-36 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-36	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	173.43		102	5863		0/107	4797/10660	55.00%		67.64m
TROS (adj)	n/a		41	10168		2/205	8603/18771	54.71%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	67.08		15159		10168		26.16m
DP2	125.02		8133		10168		23.25m
Solo	175.64		5789		10168		24.77m
JW:FK	163.26		6228		10168		24.98m
AM&tW	220.80		4605		10168		25.39m
Venom	235.48		4493		10580		23.55m
CM	107.87		10553		11384		22.33m
EG	42.71		26655		11384		25.63m
TLK	103.71		10977		11384		23.85m
It 2	210.50		5659		11912		22.10m
AVG							24.20m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

[Porthos]

Frozen 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	122	14765	16790	2025	12.06%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	228
Total Seats Sold Today	82

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Aladdin	181.34		54	1077		0/74	9641/10718	10.05%		12.69m
TS4	99.69		91	1959		1/90	10350/12309	15.92%		11.96m
TLK	52.71		330	3705		0/209	17990/21695	17.08%		12.12m
Frozen 2 (adj)	n/a		66	1953		0/122	12509/14462	13.50%		n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Aladdin and The Lion King both had 25 days of pre-sales and Toy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales.  In comparison Frozen 2 had 18 days of pre-sales. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Frozen 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block.

 

====

 

No way to sugarcoat it, just not a great day locally for Frozen 2.  Most of it was some group cancellations that totaled 29 lost tickets.  But even if that hadn't happened, it would have just been keeping pace with the three comps.

 

Still, only one day and these blips can happen. Not anything I'm remotely concerned about, especially as F2 was coming off a couple of very strong days and most of the other theaters in the region were still pretty good.

 

But I'd be remiss if I didn't comment on why it was relatively low tonight.  Chalk it up to random variation and nothing more.

Edited November 14, 2019 by Porthos

[FlashMaster659]

Frozen II Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	124	2082	31306	29224	6.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 132