The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[ZackM]

The Rise of Skywalker - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Premiere Night Seat Report: T-34 days and counting

 

	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	2	0	0	2
Seats Added	211	0	0	413
Seats Sold	71	69	64	44
11/15/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	236	29,764	41,779	12,015	28.76%

[keysersoze123]

On 11/14/2019 at 3:15 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Impact of reviews on F2 BO.

 

AMC D2 - overall 3822 shows 92220/789047 post 6PM 1729 shows 19593/364531 +8687
Cin D2 - overall 4453 shows 87825/749368 post 6PM 1643 shows 11377/280848 +8422

 

WOW. Good increase in past day. Let us see if the momentum continues.

F2 Day 2 update

AMC D2 - overall 4269 shows 99812/851350 post 6PM 1876 shows 21423/385193 +7592
CIN D2 - overall 4722 shows 95648/782479 post 6PM 1746 shows 12715/293425 +7823

 

I guess still seeing effects of reviews and music release. Another Awesome day of PS. That is 2m of PS for day 2 just these 2 chains.

[ZackM]

Frozen 2 - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	0	5
Seats Added	0	0	0	798
Seats Sold	88	102	52	24
11/15/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	78	16,318	17,537	1,219	6.95%

[Eric Duncan]

Frozen II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	71	1,222	16,112	7.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 80

 

Comp

7.451x of Maleficent 8 days before release (17.14M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.319x of Lion King (7.33M)

 

I feel a bit concerned about the movie. Not to the point where the movie will flop, but we're in the wind-up period where movies are supposed to see big increases on tickets sold daily, and going slightly down from the 85 tickets sold the past few days, and the Lion King comp continuing to decrease...it gives me room for pause. But hey, maybe my area's acting weird. Who knows?

[Eric Duncan]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-34 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	165	8,463	29,108	29.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 61

 

Comp

4.449x of Once Upon’s final count (25.81M)

2.443x of It: Chapter Two (25.65M)

1.724x of Joker (22.92M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.712x of Lion King (16.38M)

3.379x of Hobbs & Shaw (19.60M)

 

Now this was a pleasant surprise. I did not expect the movie to increase from yesterday's 43 tickets sold by a healthy amount. I half-expected a drop down to somewhere in the high 20s, 30s at most. I don't want to hold my breath, but I hope this is a pattern that will lead to good things.

[keysersoze123]

On 11/14/2019 at 3:56 PM, keysersoze123 said:

F2 OD

AMC OD - overall 3574 shows 62976/754820 post 6PM 1717 shows 37627/363320 +7737 11/14 352PM
Cin OD - overall 4426 shows 72724/749644  post 6PM 1643 shows 37314/281775  +9718 11/14 342PM

 

Again WOW. CIN increase up 150% and AMC up like 90%. This is compared to previous day sales.

 

On 11/14/2019 at 5:21 PM, keysersoze123 said:

F2 Day 3

AMC D3 - overall 3592 shows 50418/756410 post 6PM 1634 shows 7847/346014 +5768
Cin D3 - overall 4429 shows 47947/749984 post 6PM 1611 shows 3480/275787 +5316

 

Very good increase again CIN is up just under 40% but AMC is off the charts as it increased just 2349 yesterday. There is no question Reviews had a huge impact to ticket sales today.

 

On 11/14/2019 at 9:15 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Frozen 2 Previews(T-7)

AMC Prev - 40913/325976 1638 shows  +5008(1957)
Cin Prev - 43638/386309 2427 shows +5362(2219)

 

I have put increases for yesterday in braces. NO need to say anything beyond that it was a YUUGE day. I think tomorrow will be another big day with music release and then may be weekend things slow down a bit for final push next week. At this point you are looking at 0.9m PS from the 2 chains and probably 2.7m nationwide. There is a week to go and so I think somewhere between 4x to 6x can happen.

 

Edit: still no new shows at big plexes I track like Empire 25, Lincoln Square, Metreon and Universal AMC. I guess we have to wait for early next week for big ramp up.

Frozen (Prev, OD and D3)

AMC Prev - overall 1669 shows 44018/331578 +3105
Cin Prev - overall 2428 shows 46997/386375 935PM +3359

AMC OD - overall 3835 shows 69422/793643 post 6PM 1825 shows 41261/380130 +6446
CIN OD - overall 4692 shows 79790/783920 post 6PM 1744 shows 40730/294331 +7066

AMC D3 - overall 3913 shows 54536/805293 post 6PM 1729 shows 8478/360873 +4118 
Cin D3 - overall 4699 shows 53932/784301 497904.00 post 6PM 1711 shows 3816/288009 42810.00 +5985

 

Great day though slower than yesterday. Cin D3 is like 29 hours after run yesterday and so the number is lot higher than AMC which was around 24 hours. Also few hundred shows added for each day of the weekend(previews not so much). I am thinking its going for 10m previews and 140m OW, but there is still time for things to change dramatically.

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-34 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	205	12127	24152	12025	49.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

65

 

T-34 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-34	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	419.15		18	2742		2/81	7874/10616	25.83%		86.76m
TROS (adj)	n/a		61	11493		2/205	11397/22890	50.21%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

 

T-34 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-34	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	168.34		124	6103		0/113	4908/11011	54.43%		65.65m
TROS (adj)	n/a		58	10274		2/205	8497/18771	54.73%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	67.77		15159		10274		26.43m
DP2	126.32		8133		10274		23.50m
Solo	177.47		5789		10274		25.02m
JW:FK	164.96		6228		10274		25.24m
AM&tW	223.11		4605		10274		25.66m
Venom	237.84		4493		10686		23.78m
CM	108.91		10553		11493		22.54m
EG	43.12		26655		11493		25.87m
TLK	104.70		10977		11493		24.08m
It 2	212.49		5659		12025		22.31m
AVG							24.44m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

[Porthos]

Frozen 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	122	14432	16792	2360	14.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

209

 

T-6 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Aladdin	180.33		86	1261		0/74	9457/10718	11.77%		12.62m
TS4	98.53		191	2308		1/92	10157/12465	18.52%		11.82m
TLK	51.97		382	4376		0/222	18918/23294	18.79%		11.95m
Frozen 2 (adj)	n/a		199	2274		0/122	12190/14464	15.72%		n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Aladdin and The Lion King both had 25 days of pre-sales and Toy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales.  In comparison Frozen 2 had 18 days of pre-sales. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Frozen 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block.

[FlashMaster659]

Frozen II Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	126	2345	31434	29089	7.46%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 128

Total Seats Sold Today: 131

[frozenheart1993]

So is it possible for F2 to have a 120M OW? After your analysis of these days, it seems that her situation is very bad

[lorddemaxus]

20 minutes ago, frozenheart1993 said:

So is it possible for F2 to have a 120M OW? After your analysis of these days, it seems that her situation is very bad

Is this a joke?

[UserHN]

1 hour ago, frozenheart1993 said:

So is it possible for F2 to have a 120M OW? After your analysis of these days, it seems that her situation is very bad

Excuse me?? Lol

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, Eric Plus said:

Frozen II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	71	1,222	16,112	7.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 80

 

Comp

7.451x of Maleficent 8 days before release (17.14M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.319x of Lion King (7.33M)

 

I feel a bit concerned about the movie. Not to the point where the movie will flop, but we're in the wind-up period where movies are supposed to see big increases on tickets sold daily, and going slightly down from the 85 tickets sold the past few days, and the Lion King comp continuing to decrease...it gives me room for pause. But hey, maybe my area's acting weird. Who knows?

Philly right?  I'm wondering if Frozen is not quite drawing into some ethnic demographics as strongly as the 1st one might have...

[XXR vs XXR]

Frozen 2 -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 8:00am CST -- 5 Days to Previews

 

 

Dolby / IMAX: 4 showings, 113 tickets sold out of 712 seats available (15.87%)

Real 3D: 2 showings, 13 tickets sold out of 250 seats available (05.20%) 

Digital: 3 showings, 78 tickets sold out of 397 seats available (19.65%)

 

TOTAL: 9 showings, 204 tickets sold out of 1359 seats available (15.01%)

 

Comps to Final Tracked Numbers

Aladdin = 267 sold @ 7:00pm - Wednesday 

Detective Pikachu = 280 sold @ 4:00pm - Wednesday 

Toy Story 4 = 822 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday 

The Lion King = 1570 sold @ 4:00pm - Thursday

•  

[XXR vs XXR]

Star Wars: TROS -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 10:00am CST -- 34 Days to Previews  

 

 

Dolby Cinema
07:00pm: 205/205 -- SOLD OUT 

10:40pm: 123/205

02:15am: 15/205 

 

IMAX / IMAX 3D

06:00pm: 111/151 

09:40pm: 85/151 

01:20am: 0/151

 

Real 3D

06:00pm: 14/125 

06:20pm: 0/76

06:25pm: 0/76

06:30pm: 0/76 

06:45pm: 8/60

07:00pm: 4/60

07:15pm: 9/60

09:45pm: 0/125

10:05pm: 0/76

10:10pm: 0/76

10:30pm: 2/76

10:40pm: 0/60

10:50pm: 0/60

11:10pm: 0/60

01:45am: 0/76

 

Digital 

06:00pm: 91/147

06:15pm: 36/60

07:30pm: 34/60

07:45pm: 16/44 

08:00pm: 17/44

08:15pm: 14/44

08:45pm: 48/125

09:50pm: 21/147

09:55pm: 2/76

10:00pm: 1/76

11:25pm: 0/44

11:40pm: 0/44

11:55pm: 0/44

12:25am: 0/125

1:30am: 0/147

1:40am: 0/76

 

Fan Event

05:00pm: 90/125

 

 

TOTAL

946 tickets sold out of 3638 seats available (26.00%)

 

 

 

Comps to Final Tracked Numbers

Captain Marvel = 1440 sold @ 5:30pm - Thursday

Avengers: Endgame = 3623 sold @ 5:30pm - Thursday 

Toy Story 4 = 822 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday 

The Lion King = 1570 sold @ 4:00pm - Thursday

Joker = 659 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday 

•  

[frozenheart1993]

2 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Frozen 2 -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 8:00am CST -- 5 Days to Previews

 

 

Dolby / IMAX: 4 showings, 113 tickets sold out of 712 seats available (15.87%)

Real 3D: 2 showings, 13 tickets sold out of 250 seats available (05.20%) 

Digital: 3 showings, 78 tickets sold out of 397 seats available (19.65%)

 

TOTAL: 9 showings, 204 tickets sold out of 1359 seats available (15.01%)

 

Comps to Final Tracked Numbers

Aladdin = 267 sold @ 7:00pm - Wednesday 

Detective Pikachu = 280 sold @ 4:00pm - Wednesday 

Toy Story 4 = 822 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday 

The Lion King = 1570 sold @ 4:00pm - Thursday

•  

Very bad situation

[frozenheart1993]

I see all your statistics, F2 is behind TS4 in the same period, I don't know what she might get 120M OW

[Rumpot]

39 minutes ago, frozenheart1993 said:

I see all your statistics, F2 is behind TS4 in the same period, I don't know what she might get 120M OW

I guess if there are people who simply pine for the movie to flop due to some distorted internal mechanism by which this gives them pleasure then have at it...

 

In the end, you're missing out.  There'll be people who watch the movie and enjoy it.  There'll be people who analyze the box office of the movie and enjoy it.  And unfortunately you're going to miss all that to instead follow some hollow compulsion to annoy people with no payoff

[jedijake]

23 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

I guess if there are people who simply pine for the movie to flop due to some distorted internal mechanism by which this gives them pleasure then have at it...

 

In the end, you're missing out.  There'll be people who watch the movie and enjoy it.  There'll be people who analyze the box office of the movie and enjoy it.  And unfortunately you're going to miss all that to instead follow some hollow compulsion to annoy people with no payoff

This is rather condescending. All the poster was saying is that F2 is behind TS4 and TS4 made $121 million. Yes, F2 is prone to a bigger TP to OW multiplier than TS4 for various reasons. But those reasons are not showing up on every page let alone often at all so it is logical for someone to wonder whether F2 will make as much as TS4 without seeing the big picture. But instead of insulting people who don't see that big picture, maybe a clear explanation would suffice?

 

I for one have noted Finding Dory as an example of F2's potential monster OW and have been met with equal amount of condescension. 

Edited November 16, 2019 by jedijake

[a2k]

A conservative 130 ow also gives Frozen2 a great shot at 450 dom. Would need just over 3.45x multi.