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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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1 minute ago, Stewart said:

I've been here a while keyser, I know what those numbers are :P

 

Sense the tone ;) 

 

Was simply making a joke because of DW's ambiguity in his wording :sparta:

Sorry man. I thought he was obvious but I have seen this for a long time. there was this guy called notfabio at hsx who used to post RS/MTC numbers  back in 2000's. That was the only "tracking" except the data around Awareness,Definite Interest, First choice numbers from Jeff Wells.

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1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Sorry man. I thought he was obvious but I have seen this for a long time. there was this guy called notfabio at hsx who used to post RS/MTC numbers  back in 2000's. That was the only "tracking" except the data around Awareness,Definite Interest, First choice numbers from Jeff Wells.

No worries at all keyser, admittedly I have been busy since June, so haven't been active at all here :( 

 

I used to always joke with DW (whether he remembers or not) when numbers came in, so thought I'd continue that. Although perhaps with the new members here for F2 I should've been clearer it was a joke. 

 

Overall, 160m is fantastic, especially coming from MTC, given it's not the strongest chain given what posters here have found in their tracking. 

 

---

 

Sidenote, massive thanks to you and @Menor for your scraping and selenium grabbing all that data for movies. It's been very appreciated for someone like me who reads the emails but didn't have time to interact as it was very easy to see how things were going. 

 

Hopefully once this final year is up for me I can come back and enjoy some good ol' box office fun again.

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Sunday matinees are also bonkers at the one theater I checked Saturday for. Except it starts to taper down at around the 5PM show. I also checked Tuesday shows and a good portion of the evening shoes are at least 80% full already. 

 

I'm really not sure where the OW is going to land but Frozen 2 is ready for domination. 

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The Rise of Skywalker - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Premiere Night Seat Report: T-31 days and counting

 

  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 0 0 0 2 0
Seats Added 3 0 0 211 0
Seats Sold 99 61 76 71 69
           
11/18/2019 Showings Seats Left Total Seats Seats Sold Pct. Sold
Total 236 29,531 41,782 12,251 29.32%

 

 

Huge bounce back for TROS and it's actually bigger than what I'm showing here because the biggest theater that I'm tracking isn't working today.

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2 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

My source got a little curt with me last time I talked to him, so I haven't bothered him lately, but I tried today.  And he's out of the office until December!

 

But he did say that MTC is looking at about 160m for F2 though.  Not that that is of great value or anything, but it's all I got.

 

 

Missed you master wang.

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Frozen 2 - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 1 0 0 0 0
Seats Added 110 2 3 0 0
Seats Sold 293 216 110 88 102
           
11/18/2019 Showings Seats Left Total Seats Seats Sold Pct. Sold
Total 79 15,814 17,652 1,838 10.41%
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23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

F2 Update(Previous day increase in braces)

 

AMC Prev -  overall 1717 shows 54119/340079 +6922(3179)
Cin Prev - overall 2436 shows 55325/387777 +5026(3302)

AMC OD - overall 4023 shows 92733/825047 post 6PM 1906 shows 55787/393501 +14254(9057)

CIN OD - overall 4688 shows 99727/782539 post 6PM 1740 shows 51191/293478 +10503 (9434)

AMC D3 - overall 4119 shows 74372/838479  post 6PM 1787 shows 12088/369934  +15244(4592)
CIN D3 - overall 4691 shows 68617/782461 post 6PM 1707 shows 4575/287131 +8519(6166)

 

Looking at rest of the weekend, mimics what we saw for Day 2. SIgnificant acceleration seen for weekend shows. That Sunday increase at AMC is crazy. Definitely shaping upto a very backloaded weekend.

 

 

F2(T-3)

AMC Prev - overall 1719 shows 60760/340281 +6641
Cin Prev - overall 2445 shows 61984/387968 +6659

AMC OD - overall 4023 shows 104274/825397 pre noon 570 shows 7455/111196 post 6PM 1905 shows 62755/393490 +9541
CIN OD - overall 4678 shows 111393/781276 pre noon 1019 shows 8772/168019 post 6PM 1735 shows 56849/292681 +10666
AMC D3 overall 4119 shows 86532/838674 pre noon 787 shows 33760/150835 +11160
CIN D3 - overall 4663 shows 79257/778667 pre noon 1043 shows 29428/172457 +10640

 

Some of the increases are weaker than previous day but it could be bcos its for slightly less than 24 hours. Overall numbers are very strong. Previews are definitely the weakest of the bunch. Still the show count is not moving that much for previews. Let us see if things change tomorrow. No update to my predictions.

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21 Bridges Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 30 147 4,036 3.64%

 

Comp

0.620x of Gemini Man 3 days before release (992K)

2.194x of Black and Blue (1.48M)

0.987x of Harriet (592K)

 

As you can see, the comps are all over the map. But all these movies had pretty different sales periods once we got to the final count, so I can't really give a definitive answer until Thursday. shrug emoji

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A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 22 55 3,160 1.74%

 

Comp

0.084x of Once Upon 3 days before release (490K)

3.235x of Racing in Rain (1.46M)

0.128x of Downton Abbey (269K)

1.964x of Last Christmas (1.13M)

0.436x of Ford v Ferrari (917K)

 

This one's another "all over the map" movie, but this one is even harder because each movie is a tad bit different. Once Upon had PLFs, FvF had IMAX, Downton had its fanbase, all that. Now of course Neighborhood is a movie that doesn't need good previews to do good business, but eh, might as well give it a looksie.

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Frozen II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 78 1,730 17,504 9.88%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 5

Total Seats Added Today: 730

Total Seats Sold Today: 240

 

Comp

7.899x of Maleficent 3 days before release (18.17M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.347x of Lion King (7.97M)

 

I mean, I don't really have much to say? It's two extremes, both saw an increase. The mean is about 13M, so I guess that could happen? Again, strong numbers, and I'm happy my doubts have been slowly casting away.

 

btw I'll probably have TROS numbers up in the morning. Depends on how tired I feel

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Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-31 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 1 165 8,631 30,741 28.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 56

 

Comp

4.538x of Once Upon’s final count (26.32M)

2.492x of It: Chapter Two (26.16M)

1.758x of Joker (23.38M)

12.383x of Maleficent (28.48M)

9.909x of Terminator (23.29M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.730x of Lion King (16.78M)

3.462x of Hobbs & Shaw (20.08M)

 

Welp, I lied. Here's TROS data tonight. Decided for fun to look at Mal and Terminator, and it actually somewhat fits with the other comps, so maybe I'll just have them around for the fun of it. And hey, Hobbs & Shaw finally got to 20M! It'll take a while until Lion King does it, but hopefully it's done sooner rather than later. Oh yeah, it also increased a good amount from yesterday's seats sold (43), so that's cool I guess.

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The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-31 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

2

205

11932

24152

12220

50.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

46

 

T-31 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

 

   %

 

Sold T-31

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

CM

398.91

 

68

2928

 

2/81

7688/10616

27.58%

 

82.57m

TROS (adj)

n/a

 

46

11680

 

2/205

11210/22890

51.03%

 

n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

 

T-31 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

 

   %

 

Sold T-31

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

IW

167.25

 

49

6245

 

0/114

4766/11011

56.72%

 

65.23m

TROS (adj)

n/a

 

45

10445

 

2/205

8326/18771

55.64%

 

n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

 

   %

 

Final Sold

 

TROS Sold

 

Comp

IW

68.90

 

15159

 

10445

 

26.87m

DP2

128.43

 

8133

 

10445

 

23.89m

Solo

180.43

 

5789

 

10445

 

25.44m

JW:FK

167.71

 

6228

 

10445

 

25.66m

AM&tW

226.82

 

4605

 

10445

 

26.08m

Venom

241.98

 

4493

 

10872

 

24.20m

CM

110.68

 

10553

 

11680

 

22.91m

EG

43.82

 

26655

 

11680

 

26.29m

TLK

106.40

 

10977

 

11680

 

24.47m

It 2

215.94

 

5659

 

12220

 

22.67m

AVG

 

 

 

 

 

 

24.85m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

===

 

Came back down to earth slightly after the last few strong days.  A large part of that, however, was a random string of cancelations here and there.  If it wasn't for those, would have been in the mid-60s.

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Frozen 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

137

14469

17590

3121

17.74%

 

Total Showings Added Today

13*

Total Seats Added Today

798

Total Seats Sold Today

301

* Includes one showing from a non-reserved seating theater

 

T-3 Adjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold T-3

Total Sold

 

Sellouts / Shows

Seats Left / Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

Aladdin

183.66

 

173

1628

 

0/93

10983/12611

12.91%

 

12.86m

TS4

92.20

 

460

3243

 

0/119

11061/14034

22.67%

 

11.06m

TLK

50.29

 

821

5946

 

0/240

18277/24223

24.55%

 

11.57m

Frozen 2 (adj)

n/a

 

276

2990

 

0/137

12272/15262

19.59%

 

n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Aladdin and The Lion King both had 25 days of pre-sales and Toy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales.  In comparison Frozen 2 had 18 days of pre-sales. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Frozen 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block.

 

===

 

The evidence of backloading continues.  The one interesting thing, however, is the Aladdin comp.  Of the three movies here, that was the one that was still during school day hours for Thursday and Friday (Memorial Day being on the Monday).  Makes me wonder how that comp will hold up in these final few days.

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5 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Non Avengers Saturday record is $69.64mn. For a Disney family film, its $62.7mn BaTB. Record seems bit tough but I would love to see that go down. Expecting $65mn Approx though.

 

... but thats Jurassic Worlds number. Its not allowed to be overtaken by a singing snowman ...

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11-12m previews 13-14x multi gives 143-168m ow to F2.

Multiplier will be tough to gauge. Not many November animations with Fri od.

 

Male2 did 16x (7pm showtimes) and F2 will find it nearly impossible to approach that.

Dark Fate did 13x and feel that an animated sequel despite opening huge should match a Terminator reboot's multi.

TLK, Aladdin, TS4 were in summer where previews tend to be heavy with respect to the weekend.

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