The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[StarWarsMemer]

I highly doubt it'll have a $65M Saturday. That's like a $170M+ OW

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, StarWarsMemer said:

I highly doubt it'll have a $65M Saturday. That's like a $170M+ OW

Charlie sometimes gets overexcited but he was the first person to call Joker 1 billion WW.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, StarWarsMemer said:

I highly doubt it'll have a $65M Saturday. That's like a $170M+ OW

If @Menor’s numbers for Saturday hold true, it’s running a bit over TLK’s Saturday which was $61m.

 

$65m might not happen but it won’t be that far fetched. 

[SchumacherFTW]

Just checked a few places near me for Frozen. 2D shows are doing very well, especially for Saturday afternoon. PLFs looking pretty anaemic apart from Friday evening. 

[lockmom]

Hello, I come from China. I always read your analysis on bot  and admire your talent.

 

F2 is currently doing well in China, comparing TLK and Despicable Me 3

 

With less than 48 hours to go before F2 opens in China, sales on its first Friday have already hit 10M (in renminbi, of course). At the same time, the number of TLK is 8M, and the number of DM3 is 9.3m, and the growth of F2 in the last three days exceeds TLK, it seems that she may get the score of 100M dollars in China

[lockmom]

I have some doubts, from the data, it seems that the recent sales of F2 are not as good as the first few days. Can  it still achieve 130M as predicted by BOXOFFICE PRO?

Edited November 20, 2019 by lockmom

[narniadis]

44 minutes ago, lockmom said:

I have some doubts, from the data, it seems that the recent sales of F2 are not as good as the first few days. Can she still achieve 130M as predicted by BOXOFFICE PRO?

More than likely exceed. The sales data is backing up a huge weekend. Things just play very differently in the US during this time of year than summer such as with TLK and TS4

[keysersoze123]

F2 Fan Event Dolby

12077/20724 (109 shows )

 

Good % of seats are sold out. I wonder if it sell like 90% of tickets by showtimes. Still will not make material difference to saturday BO even at $15+ average ticket price.

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-31 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	256	12868	53600	40732	24.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 46

[keysersoze123]

At the risk of flogging the dead horse, extrapolating just on CIN is dangerous. Based on tracking dailies for movies in release, AMC seem more inline with overall BO. For example Ford yesterday dropped 71% at AMC and 64% at CIN and what do you think was the monday drop. This is something I have observed over past month. That is expected considering AMC is way bigger than CIN and dominates large cities where ticket prices are way higher.

 

F2 is heavily indexed at CIN and AMC/CIN ratio seem out of whack. so its not going to do as well as what CIN PS is saying relative to TLK.

[Menor the Destroyer]

32 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

At the risk of flogging the dead horse, extrapolating just on CIN is dangerous. Based on tracking dailies for movies in release, AMC seem more inline with overall BO. For example Ford yesterday dropped 71% at AMC and 64% at CIN and what do you think was the monday drop. This is something I have observed over past month. That is expected considering AMC is way bigger than CIN and dominates large cities where ticket prices are way higher.

 

F2 is heavily indexed at CIN and AMC/CIN ratio seem out of whack. so its not going to do as well as what CIN PS is saying relative to TLK.

Well of course not. If we go by Cin then it's going for 15 million previews which of course is not the case

[lockmom]

5 hours ago, narniadis said:

More than likely exceed. The sales data is backing up a huge weekend. Things just play very differently in the US during this time of year than summer such as with TLK and TS4

thanks!

[a2k]

Had 1st Frozen opened on a Friday it would have surely done 5x multiplier as FSS wouldn't have come in above 80 opposed to 67.3 current number. The final dom would have been the same for such a phenomenon. If the drop in multiplier is similar to say GOTG2's 2.66x from GOTG1's 3.53x then Frozen2 gets 3.75-3.80x multiplier using fair-value 5x for Frozen1.

 

Even using a lower 3.5x it needs 143 ow to hit 500 dom, and a low-130s ow using 3.75-3.8x.

 

Beating TS4's 434 on 2019 dom charts is a lock imo : 125 ow with 3.47x does it; and possibly so is 450 dom.

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local

Chart behind cut

Spoiler

 

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Preview Start
Shazam!					129/2229	(Afternoon)	187/2229	(3:30pm)	$5.9m	4:00 PM
Avengers: Endgame	3948/4,736	(12am)			4,853/5493	(9pm)			$60m	6:00 PM
Aladdin			98/1242	(12pm)					$7m	6:00 PM
Godzilla 2					135/1915	(7:45pm)	204/2150	(3:30pm)	$6.3m	4:00 PM
X-Men: DP			103/942	(4pm)	209/942	(3:15pm)	272/942	(3:45pm)	$5m	6:00 PM
SLOP 2			38/771	(4pm)	43/771	(3:15pm)			$2.3m	6:00 PM
Toy Story 4			165/2049	(4pm)	233/2049	(7:40pm)			$12m	6:00 PM
SM:FFH	142/922								$2.8m	Midnights Only
The Lion King	236/3228	(6:30pm)	294/3228	(6:20pm)	444/3228	(4:30pm)	557/3228	(4:30pm)	$23m	6:00 PM
OUATIH			117/1179	(2:15pm)	159/1179	(4pm)	335/1179	(4:20pm)	$5.8m	4:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw	60/1543	(5:20pm)			181/1543	(4pm)			$5.8m	7:00 PM
IT Part 2	147/2764	(9am)			239/2764	(7:10pm)			$10.5m	5:00 PM
Hustlers			45/512	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	$2.5m	6:00 PM
Downton Abbey (eps)			37/301	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	$2.2m	7:00 PM
Ad Astra			26/602	(4:30pm)	26/602	(4:30pm)	41/602	(4:30pm)	$1.5m	6:00 PM
Downton Abbey			31/512	(4:30pm)	39/512	(4:30pm)	52/1015	(4:30pm)	$2.1m	7:00 PM
Rambo			29/302	(4:30pm)	53/1242	(4:30pm)	58/1242	(4:30pm)	$1.3m	6:00 PM
Abominable			30/255	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	73/1969	(4:30pm)	$.65m	6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week)	104/2766	(9am)	172/2766	(4:30pm)			217/3536	(4pm)		4:00 PM
Joker	328/3536	(4:20pm)	399/3536	(4pm)	542/3536	(4pm)	760/3741	(3:45pm)	$13.3m	4:00 PM
Gemini Man			38/1004	(4pm)	38/1004	(4pm)	78/1004	[6:30pm]	$1.55m	7:00 PM
Adams Family		(4pm)	53/1373	(4pm)	49/1373	(4pm)			$1.25m	4:00 PM
Maleficent 2	39/1154	(4pm)	42/1154	(4pm)	33/834	(4pm)	96/1425	[6pm]	$2.3m	7:00 PM
Zombieland 2	51/1114	(4pm)	53/1114	(4pm)	67/1177	(4pm)	95/1478	[6pm]	$2.85m	7:00 PM
Black & Blue			19/410	(4pm)			20/410	(4pm)	$.68m	7:00 PM
Countdown			15/511	(4pm)			19/411	(4pm)	$.52m	7:00 PM
Terminator: DF	71/1242	(4pm)	71/1242	(4pm)	76/1242	(5:30pm)	113/1242	(4pm)	$2.35m	7:00 PM
Harriet	25/512	(4pm)	25/512	(4pm)	27/512	(5:30pm)	29/512	(4pm)	$.6m	7:00 PM
Midway	20/512	(4pm)	23/512	(4pm)	22/512	(4:30pm)	27/512	(5pm)	$.925m	7:00 PM
Dr Sleep	23/510	(4pm)	28/510	(4pm)	28/510	(4:30pm)	53/512	(5pm)	$1.5m	6:00 PM
Last Christmas	12/496	(4pm)	12/496	(4pm)	12/496	(4:30pm)	16/496	(5pm)	$.575m	7:00 PM
Playing With Fire	15/654	(4pm)	15/654	(4pm)	15/654	(4:30pm)	18/654	(4pm)		4:00 PM
Ford v Ferrari	50/1152	(4pm)	48/1152	(4pm)	53/1152	(4pm)	65/1152	(5:30pm)	$2.1m	6:00 PM
Charlies Angels	18/903	(4pm)	18/903	(4pm)	18/903	(4pm)	20/903	(4pm)	$.9m	4:00 PM
Frozen	122/1824	(4pm)	169/ 2724	(4pm)		(5:30pm)		(4pm)		6:00 PM
Beautiful Day	30/492	(4pm)	30/492	(4pm)		(5:30pm)		(4pm)		6:00 PM
21 Bridges	26/768	(4pm)	25/768	(4pm)		(5:30pm)		(4pm)		7:00 PM
Knives Out (F&S eps)	42/602	(4pm)	53/602	(4pm)		(5:30pm)		(4pm)		7:00 PM

 

 

 

NYC Local	Mon		Tues
Frozen	122/1824	(4pm)	169/ 2724	(4pm)
Beautiful Day	30/492	(4pm)	30/492	(4pm)
21 Bridges	26/768	(4pm)	25/768	(4pm)
Knives Out (F&S eps)	42/602	(4pm)	53/602	(4pm)

 

Frozen took a big jump in showings and seats.

 

Preview Comps

Toy Story 4:  $12.29m

TLK:  $13.32m

[lockmom]

 

Edited November 19, 2019 by lockmom

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/18/2019 at 3:14 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1596

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1631

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7959	36	22870	34.80%	9	182

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1611

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1631

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8016	57	22870	35.05%	9	182

[Legion Again]

41 minutes ago, lockmom said:

 

Meh, it’s atom. Seems pretty expected. If we were talking current F2 vs final TS4+I2, or on Fandango, maybe could get more out of this.

[ZackM]

I won’t have any numbers to post tonight as I’m traveling for business.  I’m hoping to get some updates late tomorrow.

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/18/2019 at 3:41 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

342

1404

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

402

1695

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1881	175	11878	15.84%	9	69

 

Lion King comp: 11.54M

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

352

1404

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

432

2309

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2068	187	12492	16.55%	9	78

 

Showings added: 9

Seats added: 614

 

Lion King comp: 10.89M

 

Barely an increase in tickets sold from yesterday. Presumably because there's not enough good seats from 6-7:30ish to meet demand. Highlands Ranch just added a bunch of showings which should help out a lot tomorrow. And other theaters should be adding more sometime today or tomorrow. So, we'll see if that gives a big boost to tickets sold.

Edited November 19, 2019 by Inceptionzq

[Krissykins]

It really is missing a song this time around. 
 

But everyone knew the Let It Go phenomenon couldn’t be recaptured. That was lightning in a bottle stuff.