The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

On 11/18/2019 at 1:44 PM, keysersoze123 said:

F2 Day 2 Sales

AMC D2 - overall 4542 shows 149035/895462 before noon 981 shows 55513/172690 +15819
CIN D2 - overall 4709 shows 133164/780971 before noon 1044 shows 45028/169354 +13013

 

HUGE numbers. I changed to show ticket sales before noon just to see how much they dominate overall sales. Plus the fact that AMC fan screening is at 10AM also skews things a bit.

F2 Day 2 Sales

AMC D2 - overall 4791 shows 172924/938836 pre-noon 1053 shows 62608/184974 +23889
CIN D2 - overall 5791 shows 157883/914010 pre-noon 1283 shows 51971/197651 +24719

 

Very good increase from yesterday. CIN saw huge spurt in show count. Overall shows is 6477!!!(I get data only for reserved theaters). So that helped it sell few more tickets than AMC. These are uncharted territory from my perspective as I have never tracked saturday numbers before.

 

Mal2 finish was

AMC - 207834/697717 - 3888 shows end
Cin -  145136/307009 - final 3160 show

 

So F2 has overtaken finish at CIN and will do so at AMC by thursday afternoon.

 

Edit: on second thoughts my CIN number for Mal2 would be 5-6% less than actual as I was missing DBOX and special seats. I fixed the bug while tracking SW9 which was after Mal2 opening saturday. Still CIN will be overtaken by end of the day.

 

Edited November 19, 2019 by keysersoze123

[cdsacken]

37 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

It really is missing a song this time around. 
 

But everyone knew the Let It Go phenomenon couldn’t be recaptured. That was lightning in a bottle stuff. 

I couldn't find any song similar. Kinda disappointed in the soundtrack. Still can't wait to see it. Im more excited than my 5 year old lol.

[Menor the Destroyer]

F2 Wednesday: 23082/621414

F2 Thanksgiving: 23659/584527

F2 2nd Friday: 26765/429629

 

Really strong numbers over a week out. Don't have many good comps though. FFH's opening 6-day (not the best comp obviously)  had D2 final at 112k (77k the afternoon before). D3 was 89k the afternoon before. I will look at Mon and Tues numbers next. 

 

[PKMLover]

Weekend Forecast: 'Frozen 2' Tracking for a $105-115 million Opening Weekend; 'A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood' Eyeing $17-20 million Debut

https://www.thewrap.com/will-frozen-ii-snap-novembers-box-office-cold-streak/

[Legion Again]

48 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Weekend Forecast: 'Frozen 2' Tracking for a $105-115 million Opening Weekend; 'A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood' Eyeing $17-20 million Debut

https://www.thewrap.com/will-frozen-ii-snap-novembers-box-office-cold-streak/

😂 😂 😂

[lockmom]

1 hour ago, PKMLover said:

Weekend Forecast: 'Frozen 2' Tracking for a $105-115 million Opening Weekend; 'A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood' Eyeing $17-20 million Debut

https://www.thewrap.com/will-frozen-ii-snap-novembers-box-office-cold-streak/

If ow only 105 to 115m,dom 400m looks difficult to complete 

[keysersoze123]

Incoming WWW F2 thread /s

 

These "forecast" are rarely on the point. Especially in the context of MTC number from Wang. This could be disney being extremely conservative. What was Mal 2 prediction from wrap? I remember TLK at 150m if I am not wrong.

[Yandereprime101189]

I can feel it in the air you guys, winter is coming~

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

For example Ford yesterday dropped 71% at AMC and 64% at CIN and what do you think was the monday drop

Cinemark has better hold in weekdays, nothing unusual there. Different chains behave differently. AMC actual drop was 72.55% yday while Cinemark was 67.5%. Overall drop was close to mean of two.

[filmlover]

Dark Waters is gonna be wide on December 13.

 

https://www.darkwaterstickets.com/

Edited November 20, 2019 by filmlover

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, PKMLover said:

Weekend Forecast: 'Frozen 2' Tracking for a $105-115 million Opening Weekend

Well, by Saturday consider that done.

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Well, by Saturday consider that done.

This is the exact joke I made on reddit 😂

[UserHN]

13 hours ago, lockmom said:

I have some doubts, from the data, it seems that the recent sales of F2 are not as good as the first few days. Can she still achieve 130M as predicted by BOXOFFICE PRO?

Funny. The way this comment was constructed was eerily similar to that dude with 'frozen' in his username that was always concern trolling. Even the questioning.. "can she achieve..." instead of "can it achieve"

Edited November 20, 2019 by UserHN

[keysersoze123]

On 11/18/2019 at 8:47 PM, keysersoze123 said:

F2(T-3)

AMC Prev - overall 1719 shows 60760/340281 +6641
Cin Prev - overall 2445 shows 61984/387968 +6659

AMC OD - overall 4023 shows 104274/825397 pre noon 570 shows 7455/111196 post 6PM 1905 shows 62755/393490 +9541
CIN OD - overall 4678 shows 111393/781276 pre noon 1019 shows 8772/168019 post 6PM 1735 shows 56849/292681 +10666
AMC D3 overall 4119 shows 86532/838674 pre noon 787 shows 33760/150835 +11160
CIN D3 - overall 4663 shows 79257/778667 pre noon 1043 shows 29428/172457 +10640

 

Some of the increases are weaker than previous day but it could be bcos its for slightly less than 24 hours. Overall numbers are very strong. Previews are definitely the weakest of the bunch. Still the show count is not moving that much for previews. Let us see if things change tomorrow. No update to my predictions.

F2 (T-2)

AMC Prev - 67610/414992 (2362 shows) +6850 11/19
CIN Prev -   69797/434752()2891 shows) +7813 11/19

AMC OD -overall 4229 shows 122504/861693  pre-noon 608 shows 8873/118769 post 6PM 1992 shows 73532/408619 +18230
CIN OD - overall 5855 shows 132846/928177 post 6PM 2119 shows 67455/341718 +21453

AMC D3 - overall 4416 shows 100410/889362 pre noon 884 shows 38905/165658 +13878
CIN D3 -  overall 6285 shows 93753/980918 pre noon 1414 shows 34046/216972 +14976

 

HUGE increase in show count across the board. Preview increases are almost inline with yesterday but huge boost over rest of the weekend. Closing in on 1M ticket sales for the OW between the 2 chains. Should be done sometime tomorrow. There is no precedent on my end to project but I should be able to predict thursday previews on thursday 🙂 For now will stick with 10-12m previews and 150-180m OW.

[JB33]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

F2 (T-2)

AMC Prev - 67610/414992 (2362 shows) +6850 11/19
CIN Prev -   69797/434752()2891 shows) +7813 11/19

AMC OD -overall 4229 shows 122504/861693  pre-noon 608 shows 8873/118769 post 6PM 1992 shows 73532/408619 +18230
CIN OD - overall 5855 shows 132846/928177 post 6PM 2119 shows 67455/341718 +21453

AMC D3 - overall 4416 shows 100410/889362 pre noon 884 shows 38905/165658 +13878
CIN D3 -  overall 6285 shows 93753/980918 pre noon 1414 shows 34046/216972 +14976

 

HUGE increase in show count across the board. Preview increases are almost inline with yesterday but huge boost over rest of the weekend. Closing in on 1M ticket sales for the OW between the 2 chains. Should be done sometime tomorrow. There is no precedent on my end to project but I should be able to predict thursday previews on thursday 🙂 For now will stick with 10-12m previews and 150-180m OW.

Absolutely bonkers!

 

If the OW is closer to $180M, what do you guys think about the 2nd weekend (3-day)? if the O/U is $90M?

[Menor the Destroyer]

20 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Absolutely bonkers!

 

If the OW is closer to $180M, what do you guys think about the 2nd weekend (3-day)? if the O/U is $90M?

More like 100-110 with holiday boost on Friday I'd think. Hard to say for sure though.

[StarWarsMemer]

$13M and a 13x multiplier?
 

[charlie Jatinder]

33 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

F2 (T-2)

AMC Prev - 67610/414992 (2362 shows) +6850 11/19
CIN Prev -   69797/434752()2891 shows) +7813 11/19

 

AMC OD -overall 4229 shows 122504/861693   +18230
CIN OD - overall 5855 shows 132846/928177 +21453

 

AMC D2 - overall 4791 shows 172924/938836  +23889
CIN D2 - overall 5791 shows 157883/914010 +24719

 

AMC D3 - overall 4416 shows 100410/889362 +13878
CIN D3 -  overall 6285 shows 93753/980918 +14976

That looks like

Previews: $5.25mn

Friday: $8.75mn

Saturday: $12mn 

Sunday: $7mn

 

Going by @Menor weekdays number, Pre-sales post Sunday could be another $8-10mn. That's $33mn pre-sales for weekend and $41-43mn overall. Excellent and with all important last two days to go yet.

 

I think previews might just be around $10-12mn, unless huge walk-ins. Friday on other hand is absolute crazy, by Thursday mid-night, final numbers might be around $18mn. Per my estimates, Incredibles 2 Friday PS was around $18mn Approx which went for $52.75mn True Friday, around 2.9x. The Lion King was $24mn and went for $56mn for 2.35x. Say Frozen 2 go for 2.65x, that's $48mn True Friday.

 

Coming to Saturday, I2 PS were $17-18mn for 3.3x to $59mn while TLK went for $23mn and $61mn for 2.65x, but here's where it is crazy, by Friday, Saturday PS may reach $24-25mn, which going by PSm increase of TLK and I2 leads to $72mn () which obviously seems too high but does it?

Sunday again is strong, may hit $55-60mn.

 

Now this all is projection, way too early, based on data we don't know how reliable gonna be but numbers ARE crazy.

Thanks @keysersoze123 and @Menor for your services.

 

 

[Eric Duncan]

I looked over the results from tonight. But I'm kind of on a time crunch, so I'll have to post my stuff tomorrow morning. I will say some of these results are...interesting. Do with that what you will

[a2k]

from the wrap article

Quote

But at the same time, analysts are ruling out a $150 million-plus opening despite record presales on Atom and Fandango because they believe that “Frozen II”‘s key audience, families, will probably wait until Thanksgiving weekend to see the film.

“Animated movies in the summer can be frontloaded because there’s nothing holding families back from seeing it on opening weekend,” Boxoffice Pro analyst Shawn Robbins told TheWrap. “With a long holiday weekend coming up, the turnout from families might be a bit more spread out than usual.”