The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[StarWarsMemer]

B-but the pre-sales were stronger than TLK's? Kinda disappointed that this most likely wont beat the November record.

[Curtis1986]

 Variety, The wrap and DL have 21 Bridges doint between 12 to 14 million. That will be a win for STX films.

Edited November 20, 2019 by Curtis1986

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Folks, could it really be something as simple as just looking at an expected Thr internal multi and not looking at the monster Sat which seems to be brewing?

 

I could see them thinking, "Well, preview number might come in well under TS4, so if the weekend plays out similarly, here's the range".

 

Either that or we are massively over-estimating the coming Sat bump. 

 

It could be combo of both. This could be more PS driven than typical kids movie due to ginormous popularity of the character. Plus this may not play strong with late shows that limit PS to actual gross.

 

That said 90m prediction is ridiculous. Definitely wont be in that ballpark. Even Disney wont go that low.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, StarWarsMemer said:

B-but the pre-sales were stronger than TLK's? 

No, they weren't.  

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

No, they weren't.  

To expand on this, the only thing Frozen 2 did do was beat TLK's first day of pre-sales on Atom.  And even then, Atom is growing rapidly.  Even a span of a few months it probably isn't fair to use like-for-like comparisons given their growth (they did lose Regal, but gained serveral other chains, including Cinemark).

 

Also, those stories were about all pre-sales, not just opening night.

 

EDITED:::

 

As Thanos Legion notes below, apparently I missed/forgot the news about beating TLK's seven day sales over on Fandango.

 

In that case, see my point about all pre-sales versus opening night.

Edited November 20, 2019 by Porthos

[el sid]

Counted today at 10am EST:
Frozen II:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 308 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 608 (total tickets sold for Friday, 18 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 317/ 567 (21 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 305 / 518 (17 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 428 / 692 (26 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 206 / 570 (25 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 138 / 330 (11 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 179 / 221 (14 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): no showtimes due to a private event (!) / 451 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 420 / 658 (26 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 643 / 591 (20 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 9/10 theaters till today for Thursday: 2.944 and for Friday: 5.206.

Not frontloaded at all. Comps: TLK had on Wednesday 7.786/9.705 sold tickets (without San Francisco on Thursday), It 2 had 3.064/4.316 (same). So at the moment 100M look more realistic than 150M but the way better Friday number could change that.

21 Bridges:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 147 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 197 (total tickets sold for Friday, 8 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 19 / 30 (5 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 6 / 24 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 18 / 9 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 9 / 3 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 / 4 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 5 / 5 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): private event / 22 (only 2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 20 / 35 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 24 / 37 (5 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 9/10 theaters till today for Thursday: 250 and for Friday: 366.

The best comp is probably Black and Blue which had on Wednesday 182/202.
Not bad, only a little bit uneven distributed.

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

No, they weren't.  

Well the first 2 were over TLK first 7 on Fandango, which was pretty impressive. But yeah, always good to prevent people conflating “initial PS” with “overall PS.”  
 

I see your follow up, looks like you just forgot the above?

Edited November 20, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, el sid said:

Counted today at 10am EST:
Frozen II:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 308 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 608 (total tickets sold for Friday, 18 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 317/ 567 (21 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 305 / 518 (17 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 428 / 692 (26 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 206 / 570 (25 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 138 / 330 (11 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 179 / 221 (14 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): no showtimes due to a private event (!) / 451 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 420 / 658 (26 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 643 / 591 (20 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 9/10 theaters till today for Thursday: 2.944 and for Friday: 5.206.

Not frontloaded at all. Comps: TLK had on Wednesday 7.786/9.705 sold tickets (without San Francisco on Thursday), It 2 had 3.064/4.316 (same). So at the moment 100M look more realistic than 150M but the way better Friday number could change that.

21 Bridges:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 147 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 197 (total tickets sold for Friday, 8 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 19 / 30 (5 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 6 / 24 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 18 / 9 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 9 / 3 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 / 4 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 5 / 5 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): private event / 22 (only 2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 20 / 35 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 24 / 37 (5 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 9/10 theaters till today for Thursday: 250 and for Friday: 366.

The best comp is probably Black and Blue which had on Wednesday 182/202.
Not bad, only a little bit uneven distributed.

Thank you for this report. I must say I find your report very useful as your sampling way wider than most folks around here. But I am seeing ginormous show count and weekend ticket sales. Unless its so PS driven that final numbers taper down, I see this at 150m+ for now. But as I keep reiterating to me this is unchartered waters. So I want to wait until tomorrow night to make my final call.

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Well the first 2 were over TLK first 7 on Fandango, which was pretty impressive. But yeah, always good to prevent people conflating “initial PS” with “overall PS.”  
 

I see your follow up, looks like you just forgot the above?

I don't think I ever saw it.  Or at least all I did remember was the first day blast.

 

(been on a bit of a SW bender recently )

[Menor the Destroyer]

34 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Folks, could it really be something as simple as just looking at an expected Thr internal multi and not looking at the monster Sat which seems to be brewing?

 

I could see them thinking, "Well, preview number might come in well under TS4, so if the weekend plays out similarly, here's the range".

 

Either that or we are massively over-estimating the coming Sat bump. 

 

To do that, they would have to miss the fact that TS4 and I2 were opening in the summer which obviously makes a big difference for family films. 

 

Trying to low-ball, say have a low estimate for ATP and pessimistic extrapolation for the last few days and assume Avenger-level presale heaviness, I still can't see it going below 120.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

To do that, they would have to miss the fact that TS4 and I2 were opening in the summer which obviously makes a big difference for family films. 

I'm trying to figure out reasons here, okay?    Maybe they're just overcautious from TS4 not meeting industry expectations as well as a raft of sequels under-performing this year.

 

Aside from all that, I gots nothing.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'm trying to figure out reasons here, okay?    Maybe they're just overcautious from TS4 not meeting industry expectations as well as a raft of sequels under-performing this year.

 

Aside from all that, I gots nothing.

 

I agree it's definitely related to TS4. I still don't know why the trades picked that particular one to go all in on when by the final week the presales were way behind I2. 

 

Also it's Deadline. I still remember "Endgame 200-250 million" after it had destroyed all presale records earlier that week.

[lockmom]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

I'm trying to figure out reasons here, okay?    Maybe they're just overcautious from TS4 not meeting industry expectations as well as a raft of sequels under-performing this year.

 

Aside from all that, I gots nothing.

 

Consider the current situation, 130M OW，in or out?

[Nova]

So it’s really odd but the AMC which has a regular showing of Frozen 2 that’s sold 142/142 still hasn’t added anymore showings for Thursday night. I’d be completely shocked if they didn’t add anymore but if they do it’ll be either later tonight or early tomorrow morning. So I’ll probably have to wait on doing a seat count until closer to when showtimes begin versus doing it in the morning like I’ve been doing. It’s actually cause I’m lazy and don’t wanna count twice tomorrow 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1611

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1631

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8016	57	22870	35.05%	9	182

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1615

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1638

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8077	61	22870	35.32%	9	182

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

F2 Day 2 Sales

AMC D2 - overall 4791 shows 172924/938836 pre-noon 1053 shows 62608/184974 +23889
CIN D2 - overall 5791 shows 157883/914010 pre-noon 1283 shows 51971/197651 +24719

 

Very good increase from yesterday. CIN saw huge spurt in show count. Overall shows is 6477!!!(I get data only for reserved theaters). So that helped it sell few more tickets than AMC. These are uncharted territory from my perspective as I have never tracked saturday numbers before.

 

Mal2 finish was

AMC - 207834/697717 - 3888 shows end
Cin -  145136/307009 - final 3160 show

 

So F2 has overtaken finish at CIN and will do so at AMC by thursday afternoon.

 

Edit: on second thoughts my CIN number for Mal2 would be 5-6% less than actual as I was missing DBOX and special seats. I fixed the bug while tracking SW9 which was after Mal2 opening saturday. Still CIN will be overtaken by end of the day.

 

 

17 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

F2 (T-2)

AMC Prev - 67610/414992 (2362 shows) +6850 11/19
CIN Prev -   69797/434752()2891 shows) +7813 11/19

AMC OD -overall 4229 shows 122504/861693  pre-noon 608 shows 8873/118769 post 6PM 1992 shows 73532/408619 +18230
CIN OD - overall 5855 shows 132846/928177 post 6PM 2119 shows 67455/341718 +21453

AMC D3 - overall 4416 shows 100410/889362 pre noon 884 shows 38905/165658 +13878
CIN D3 -  overall 6285 shows 93753/980918 pre noon 1414 shows 34046/216972 +14976

 

HUGE increase in show count across the board. Preview increases are almost inline with yesterday but huge boost over rest of the weekend. Closing in on 1M ticket sales for the OW between the 2 chains. Should be done sometime tomorrow. There is no precedent on my end to project but I should be able to predict thursday previews on thursday 🙂 For now will stick with 10-12m previews and 150-180m OW.

 

 

 

F2 Update(T-1)

AMC Prev - 69548/423462(2393 shows)  +1938
CIN Prev -  72582/434760()2896 shows +2785
AMC OD - overall 5733 shows 139546/1080420 post 6PM 2593 shows 83563/499107 +17042
CIN OD - overall 6418 shows 150223/993188  post 6PM 2318 shows 76732/365010 +17377
AMC D3 - overall 6036 shows 109969/1115644  pre noon 1379 shows 42894/224605 +9559
CIN D3 - overall 6384 shows 100802/991162 pre noon 1438 shows 36568/219277 +7049
AMC D2 - overall 6410 shows 199196/1159565 pre noon 1543 shows 71574/243211 post 6PM 2635 shows 47417/501267 +26272
CIN D2 - overall 6400 shows 181321/986569 pre noon 1422 shows 58771/214387 post 6PM 2286 shows 29812/360424 +23438

 

1st things first. the previews data is from morning and so its just what was sold until morning from night before. So no concern. I plan to focus on previews and will update numbers tonight and couple of times tomorrow.

 

Otherwise the news is showcounts for the weekend. At this point its ginormous way bigger than all other movies i have tracked since Joker. It will probably add few thousand shows more before the show day ends and so this is not the end.

 

I will wait until tomorrow before updating my predictions. So this is just raw data for now.

[Nova]

@keysersoze123 Thank you so much for the data that you’re always giving us. Not sure if you have answered this before or not but I was wondering where you get this data from? Are you an insider of sorts is what I am asking? Lol If you cant answer I totally understand but just figured I’d ask  

Edited November 20, 2019 by Nova

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

@keysersoze123 Thank you so much for the data that you’re always giving us. Not sure if you have answered this before or not but I was wondering where you get this data from? Are you an insider of sorts is what I am asking? Lol If you cant answer I totally understand but just figured I’d ask  

Thank you Nova. it has been fun tracking this movie for sure. I am not an insider. Just automated the process of tracking. I think we have discussed this before. Similar to what Menor does but we do it different way. That helps us get the macro data. Not sure this can be done for ever.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

352

1404

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

432

2309

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2068	187	12492	16.55%	9	78

 

Showings added: 9

Seats added: 614

 

Lion King comp: 10.89M

 

Barely an increase in tickets sold from yesterday. Presumably because there's not enough good seats from 6-7:30ish to meet demand. Highlands Ranch just added a bunch of showings which should help out a lot tomorrow. And other theaters should be adding more sometime today or tomorrow. So, we'll see if that gives a big boost to tickets sold.

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

392

1798

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

497

2309

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2391	323	13675	17.48%	9	97

 

Showings added: 19

Seats added: 1183

 

Lion King comp: 10.76M

[Menor the Destroyer]

28 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

 

 

 

F2 Update(T-1)

AMC Prev - 69548/423462(2393 shows)  +1938
CIN Prev -  72582/434760()2896 shows +2785
AMC OD - overall 5733 shows 139546/1080420 post 6PM 2593 shows 83563/499107 +17042
CIN OD - overall 6418 shows 150223/993188  post 6PM 2318 shows 76732/365010 +17377
AMC D3 - overall 6036 shows 109969/1115644  pre noon 1379 shows 42894/224605 +9559
CIN D3 - overall 6384 shows 100802/991162 pre noon 1438 shows 36568/219277 +7049
AMC D2 - overall 6410 shows 199196/1159565 pre noon 1543 shows 71574/243211 post 6PM 2635 shows 47417/501267 +26272
CIN D2 - overall 6400 shows 181321/986569 pre noon 1422 shows 58771/214387 post 6PM 2286 shows 29812/360424 +23438

 

1st things first. the previews data is from morning and so its just what was sold until morning from night before. So no concern. I plan to focus on previews and will update numbers tonight and couple of times tomorrow.

 

Otherwise the news is showcounts for the weekend. At this point its ginormous way bigger than all other movies i have tracked since Joker. It will probably add few thousand shows more before the show day ends and so this is not the end.

 

I will wait until tomorrow before updating my predictions. So this is just raw data for now.

OD presales should finish in 15-17 million range using conservative estimates for ATP and extrapolation, following I2 or TS4 that will be  45-51 while following TLK that would be 34-39 million OD. I don't think this will be as PS heavy as TLK which played like an MCU film. So a conservative pure OD shall be ~40 million. 

 

Sat PS should end up in 20+ range, should be 56 million+. Then 30% sun drop to 40 million range again. So conservatively I would say the OW should at least get in the 140-150 million range, with a good chance to shoot far higher if walkups and late PS are strong.