The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TalismanRing]

Knives Out Early Sneaks 

 

Tracking 16 theaters in NYC with a couple from NJ

 

Friday: 1,483/2,315= 64.06%

Saturday: 1,005/2,189 =45.91%

Total:  2,488/4,404 = 56.49%

 

Most have one show Fri & Sat (7pm).   Except AMC 25, Alamo & Kips Bay - with AMC adding another Friday and the other two another Fri & Sat after near sellouts. Newport is sold out both nights except for 1 ticket (no extra shows added yet).  Lincoln Plaza has 4 wheel chair seats left for Friday but no extra shows added yet.

 

(They're looking pretty sizeable in NYC.  I don't have overall comps across the 16 theaters but preview sales at my local are already ahead of FvF's Thur 4pm (70 to 65 with 2 v 4 showings) and well ahead of DA's 52 (regular previews & across 4 showings)

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2019 by TalismanRing

[charlie Jatinder]

 

And this is with One full day, the biggest day of PS, to go.

Edited November 21, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[cdsacken]

Love that poster. Anna and Elsa look so determined and badass.

[Menor the Destroyer]

14 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

 

And this is with One full day, the biggest day of PS, to go.

Could have even been before. With EG they waited until opening Thursday even though it should have blown through the record well before that

[Legion Again]

I hope it didn’t take until Wed night. All it really means is beating TS4 PS, and that’s kind of a duh.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

I hope it didn’t take until Wed night. All it really means is beating TS4 PS, and that’s kind of a duh.

TS4 had the record? I don't think so. Pre-sales were nowhere near Incredibles 2.

Edited November 21, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[Nova]

Yea I thought Incredibles 2 had the overall presales record. Toy Story 4 had the first day record. I maybe mistaken though. 

[Sunny Max]

5 minutes ago, Nova said:

Yea I thought Incredibles 2 had the overall presales record

Yes Incredibles 2 hold overall animated presales record 

[Legion Again]

Hmm, might have gotten that one mixed up. Still I2 is like 17 months ago and selling much less for days 4-9, so was likewise expecting to beat its PS without trouble. If I2 was a lot ahead of TS4 then doing it with this timing is a bit more impressive.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

10 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Hmm, might have gotten that one mixed up. Still I2 is like 17 months ago and selling much less for days 4-9, so was likewise expecting to beat its PS without trouble. If I2 was a lot ahead of TS4 then doing it with this timing is a bit more impressive.

Luckily this was the last weekend of the Akvalley data. I2 had 183850 fandango transactions at the close of Thursday. Toy story 4 had 114041

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

Frozen 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	160	14853	18846	3993	21.19%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	199

 

Total Seats Sold Today

472

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Aladdin	152.95		580	2506		0/117	11420/13926	18.00%		10.71m
TS4	83.38		816	4597		0/149	12268/16865	27.26%		10.00m
TLK	47.69		1208	8038		0/287	19742/27780	28.93%		10.96m
Frozen 2 (adj)	n/a		449	3833		0/160	12685/16518	23.20%		n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Aladdin and The Lion King both had 25 days of pre-sales and Toy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales.  In comparison Frozen 2 had 18 days of pre-sales. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Frozen 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block.

 

===

 

Not a good day at all for the day before previews.  No way to even sugar coat it.  In fact, even worse when family films are taken into the equation (even Pika Pika outsold Frozen 2 on an adjusted basis today [472 v 449]).

 

I'm not sure exactly what is going on.  Sacramento was probably over-performing when compared to @keysersoze123's national look and is now lining up with his national numbers.  Or it could be part of a larger sign (haven't seen other numbers tonight).

 

Regardless, the trendline is absolutely in the wrong direction for 10m+.  

 

Now I haven't looked at Sat locally, as I simply don't have the time or comps.  Regardless, buckle in for a bumpy weekend folks!

I did say that sometime back any region dominated by cinemark will overindex. After all as late as yesterday night CIN was ahead of AMC nationally !!!! But its interesting close to release things are aligning. 

[keysersoze123]

F2 Previews (Thursday Morning Update)

 

AMC - overall 2458 shows 83097/429885 1214522.22 969366.26 +4951

CIN - overall 2950 shows 84353/440793 1011767.00 +4352

 

Not bad but it needs to sell about 110K tickets today to hit the range I posted yesterday. I will provide mid afternoon update to see how things are going.

 

Grom gross perspective its at 2.2m between the 2 chains(I am assuming adult tickets to dominate for previews) it will be about 7% lower if kids are around 40% of the tickets.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

Hmm, might have gotten that one mixed up. Still I2 is like 17 months ago and selling much less for days 4-9, so was likewise expecting to beat its PS without trouble. If I2 was a lot ahead of TS4 then doing it with this timing is a bit more impressive.

I2 was more than 50% ahead of TS4 on Pulse like @The Fast and the Furiosa said. The two were not even close. To beat it by Thursday morning is quite impressive especially since we know it's way way behind for previews.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

24 minutes ago, Menor said:

I2 was more than 50% ahead of TS4 on Pulse like @The Fast and the Furiosa said. The two were not even close. To beat it by Thursday morning is quite impressive especially since we know it's way way behind for previews.

Yep, the only caveat being how much is going to next week. Still a good number is incoming regardless

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

Yep, the only caveat being how much is going to next week. Still a good number is incoming regardless

Less than 25% to next week from the data I scraped. Thus if we know that F2 is more than 150% of TS4, take 75% of that you still get 113%, and we know it's lagging TS4 in preview sales as well. Remove that, FSS should be ahead by an even bigger margin. I am relatively confident that Friday presales will be $15 million+ leading to 40+ pure OD and 55+ Saturday.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Less than 25% to next week from the data I scraped. Thus if we know that F2 is more than 150% of TS4, take 75% of that you still get 113%, and we know it's lagging TS4 in preview sales as well. Remove that, FSS should be ahead by an even bigger margin. I am relatively confident that Friday presales will be $15 million+ leading to 40+ pure OD and 55+ Saturday.

Only caveat...

 

The type of movie...Frozen 2 is gonna skew presale heavy as a 30+/12 - female audience vs TS4 which skews more across the 4 quadrants...

 

Frozen 2 also has a more "we want this" factor to the sequel vs TS4...thus, a heavier prebuy vs potential walk ups...

 

Just don't want to get hopes up for a monster number...and then not see a monster number...

[Eric Atreides]

https://deadline.com/2019/11/jumanji-the-next-level-richard-jewell-black-christmas-box-office-projections-1202791972/

 

Quote

Sony’s sequel Jumanji: The Next Level is looking to file a $40M+ opening when the PG-13 family pic hits theaters on Dec. 13. Moviegoing typically doesn’t explode until after Christmas Day, which falls on a Wednesday this year; the Star Wars pics being the exception to that marketplace rule. Hence, the projections this morning might appear a little damp.

 

Here’s what’s interesting, the diagnostics on Jumanji: The Next Level are higher than Sony’s Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse, which opened on a similar date, Dec. 14 last year, to $35.3M, and did a 5.4x for a $190.2M domestic final. Unaided is higher on Jumanji: The Next Level by 8 points next to Spider-Verse and First Choice by 10 points which indicates that Next Level could possibly do $50M.

 

Also hitting tracking today was Universal/Blumhouse’s Black Christmas which is seeing $10M-$12M, the under 25 young adult segment being its prime audience for this R-rated pic. In unaided awareness, the pic looks like Blumhouse’s Ma and Truth or Dare. Horror is tough to track during the holiday season as well.

 

Warner Bros. Clint Eastwood directed drama Richard Jewell about the security guard at the 1996 Atlanta Summer Olympics who found the bomb, and then was accused of planting it, is seeing $8M-$12M. Adults are hard to get out due to holiday distractions, so again, like all awards season bait, the hope is that reviews will keep business flowing for this pic. Richard Jewell had its world premiere at AFI last night and wowed reviewers at a majority of the rival trades, particularly with Paul Walter Hauser’s star making turn as Jewell. Last year, Eastwood had the crime drama thriller The Mule, which also opened on Dec. 14, however that posted a $17.5M 3-day and played to $103.8M. 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Only caveat...

 

The type of movie...Frozen 2 is gonna skew presale heavy as a 30+/12 - female audience vs TS4 which skews more across the 4 quadrants...

 

Frozen 2 also has a more "we want this" factor to the sequel vs TS4...thus, a heavier prebuy vs potential walk ups...

 

Just don't want to get hopes up for a monster number...and then not see a monster number...

Yeah, that's why I'm estimating multiples below TS4. TS4 had 12 million Friday PS which went up to a 36 million pure OD. I don't think 40 is too much to ask from 15 million in PS.

[filmlover]

Sounds about right for the December 13 openers.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

14 minutes ago, Menor said:

Less than 25% to next week from the data I scraped. Thus if we know that F2 is more than 150% of TS4, take 75% of that you still get 113%, and we know it's lagging TS4 in preview sales as well. Remove that, FSS should be ahead by an even bigger margin. I am relatively confident that Friday presales will be $15 million+ leading to 40+ pure OD and 55+ Saturday.

Better comparison would be the Wednesday close numbers then.

 

I2: 129193

Toys 4: 77032