The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[LegendaryBen]

1 hour ago, el sid said:

Today I followed the advice of several members and checked its Saturday showtimes and sold tickets...and indeed this day is way stronger.

Counted today at 11am EST:
Frozen II:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 1.022 (total tickets sold for Saturday, 18 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 1.056 (19 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 557 (17 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 1.138 (25 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 859 (25 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 5 theaters till today for Saturday: 4.632.

For comparison: Its number for Friday in the same 5 theaters was 2.955 yesterday (which means counted also two days before).

21 Bridges (normal days):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 182 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 245 (total tickets sold for Friday, 8 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 22 / 51 (5 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 10 / 23 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 20 / 10 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 20 / 5 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 / 6 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 14 / 7 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): private event / 33 (still only 2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 28 / 48 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 46 / 47 (5 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 9/10 theaters till today for Thursday: 346 and for Friday: 475.

Yesterday: 250/366.
Comp: Black and Blue had on Thursday 244/262. 21 Bridges looks a bit weak between the coasts but B&B had the same problem. So judging from the presale numbers above the e.g. 8.4M prediction of boxofficepro seems (way) too low.

Thanks for doing this. Anything on A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood?

[filmlover]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

what is different from previous movie was that J2 is opening ahead of SW9. Previously it opened during 2nd weekend of SW8. So impact will be harder. I am expecting J2 to drop 60%. Based on show count I am thinking SW9 will have 55-60% of overall shows and that will impact everything especially movie in the 2nd weekend.

 

So it has to open bigger. This is without taking into account that Sequel to a 400m movie will be more frontloaded.

But what about all the Star Wars shows that are gonna have to be cancelled to accommodate the real event of Christmas: CATS! A storm is coming.

 

[narniadis]

This is also the caveat of how rare it is for 2nd films to match their predecessors 400m gross. Hunger Games 2 being a rare exception, but most fall considerably and frankly, we'd be saying the same for Frozen 2 if it was any studio but Disney. 

 

That being said, I echo Porthos's qualms and how the film feels to just exist but not be producing any hype. But that could be my circles only obviously. 

[Cap]

@Porthos first tweet had a typo 

[keysersoze123]

MTC1 - overall 5846 shows 163848/1094505 2277710.49 1871823.73 post 6PM 2642 shows 97678/505436 +24302 

MTC2 - overall 6466 shows 177024/997461 1838530.00 post 6PM 2331 shows 90130/366326  +26801 

 

Good increase for OD BO. Needs to double the pace for next day to hit 15m presales for OD as @Menor mentioned. 

Edited November 21, 2019 by keysersoze123

[StarWarsMemer]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

AMC OD - overall 5846 shows 163848/1094505 2277710.49 1871823.73 post 6PM 2642 shows 97678/505436 +24302 

CIN OD - overall 6466 shows 177024/997461 1838530.00 post 6PM 2331 shows 90130/366326  +26801 

 

Good increase for OD BO. Needs to double the pace for next day to hit 15m presales for OD as @Menor mentioned. 

Do you have a job at AMC? How do you access data for over 2 million seats

Edited November 21, 2019 by StarWarsMemer

[FlashMaster659]

5 minutes ago, StarWarsMemer said:

Do you have a job at AMC? How do you access data for over 2 million seats

He uses a data scraping program to get all the data from the AMC website

[keysersoze123]

I am thinking of not using real names. How about MTC1 and MTC2. Otherwise I will get the same question every few days. 

[Nova]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am thinking of not using real names. How about MTC1 and MTC2. Otherwise I will get the same question every few days. 

Do you work at a MTC? How else do you get the data? 

[Porthos]

Frozen 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:15pm - 12:45pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	14051	18565	4514	24.31%

 

Total Showings Removed Since Last Night	1
Total Seats Removed Since Last Night	281

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

521

 

T-0 Mid-Day Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-0 Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Aladdin	140.99		585	3091		0/117	10762/13853	22.31%		9.87m
TS4	79.55		881	5478		2/149	11387/16865	32.48%		9.55m
TLK	47.49		1139	9177		0/288	18654/27831	32.97%		10.92m
Frozen 2 (adj)	n/a		525	4358		0/159	12160/16518	26.38%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Frozen 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block

Edited November 22, 2019 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Frozen 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:30pm - 12:45pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	14051	18565	48514	24.31%

 

Total Showings Removed Since Last Night	1
Total Seats Removed Since Last Night	281

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

521

 

T-0 Mid-Day Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-0 Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Aladdin	140.99		585	3091		0/117	10762/13853	22.31%		9.87m
TS4	79.55		881	5478		2/149	11387/16865	32.48%		9.55m
TLK	47.49		1139	9177		0/288	18654/27831	32.97%		10.92m
Frozen 2 (adj)	n/a		525	4358		0/159	12160/16518	26.38%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Frozen 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block

9 million looking more and more likely.

[Legion Again]

28 minutes ago, Nova said:

Do you work at a MTC? How else do you get the data? 

Nah, he works at MTC2. Other data is from a close source at MTC1.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

9 million looking more and more likely.

Ayup.  The TLK comp is giving me a bit of pause though as I think that underperformed locally while both TS4 and Aladdin overperformed locally from what I recall.  Might check out other comps to see what I get, but between the two end points might just be the landing spot.

 

Could see 9.5 is what I am saying, I guess.

 

===

 

Just not seeing a ton of walkups.  More like decent amount here and there and then falling off a cliff 9pm and later. Could just be that this is a female-skewing film and those are notorious for being pre-sale heavy.  That is, a decent portion of the folks going to see this film already bought tickets when compared to last minute buyers for other family films.  Not to mention the kids factor and this still being a school night.

 

Still, the Thursday number might be fairly insignificant, going by what you and keysersoze123 have reported for the weekend.

 

After all, those tickets Fandango is tweeting about have to be bought somewhere, right?

 

...

 

Times like this I miss Pulse, as well as akvalleys breakdown by day.  

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Ayup.  The TLK comp is giving me a bit of pause though as I think that underperformed locally while both TS4 and Aladdin overperformed locally from what I recall.  Might check out other comps to see what I get, but between the two end points might just be the landing spot.

 

Could see 9.5 is what I am saying, I guess.

 

===

 

Just not seeing a ton of walkups.  More like decent amount here and there and then falling off a cliff 9pm and later. Could just be that this is a female-skewing film and those are notorious for being pre-sale heavy.  That is, a decent portion of the folks going to see this film already bought tickets when compared to last minute buyers for other family films.  Not to mention the kids factor and this still being a school night.

 

Still, the Thursday number might be fairly insignificant, going by what you and keysersoze123 have reported for the weekend.

 

After all, those tickets Fandango is tweeting about have to be bought somewhere, right?

 

...

 

Times like this I miss Pulse, as well as akvalleys breakdown by day.  

They could be going to this weekend BUT I’d say a bigger portion than usual is going to next weekend which may skew things in terms of Frozen 2’s OW. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Ayup.  The TLK comp is giving me a bit of pause though as I think that underperformed locally while both TS4 and Aladdin overperformed locally from what I recall.  Might check out other comps to see what I get, but between the two end points might just be the landing spot.

 

Could see 9.5 is what I am saying, I guess.

 

===

 

Just not seeing a ton of walkups.  More like decent amount here and there and then falling off a cliff 9pm and later. Could just be that this is a female-skewing film and those are notorious for being pre-sale heavy.  That is, a decent portion of the folks going to see this film already bought tickets when compared to last minute buyers for other family films.  Not to mention the kids factor and this still being a school night.

 

Still, the Thursday number might be fairly insignificant, going by what you and keysersoze123 have reported for the weekend.

 

After all, those tickets Fandango is tweeting about have to be bought somewhere, right?

 

...

 

Times like this I miss Pulse, as well as akvalleys breakdown by day.  

The walkup trend relative to yesterday seems fine to me, it's just that the last couple of days have been really slow for preview sales. I guess it's a combination of the factors you mentioned, but hopefully since the rest of the weekend has been trending/accelerating much better it won't end up meaning anything.

 

The bolded I suppose is a combination of Thanksgiving week/weekend (still I don't think that's making up more than 25%) and a super backloaded OW. I still think Friday presales have a decent shot to get to $15 million nationwide, that's 50-60% ahead of what previews are looking to be!!  And Saturday is going to be even crazier. In any case, this has been one of the most interesting PS runs to track and I'm excited to see how things play out.

 

[Curtis1986]

3 hours ago, el sid said:

Today I followed the advice of several members and checked its Saturday showtimes and sold tickets...and indeed this day is way stronger.

Counted today at 11am EST:
Frozen II:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 1.022 (total tickets sold for Saturday, 18 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 1.056 (19 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 557 (17 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 1.138 (25 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 859 (25 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 5 theaters till today for Saturday: 4.632.

For comparison: Its number for Friday in the same 5 theaters was 2.955 yesterday (which means counted also two days before).

21 Bridges (normal days):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 182 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 245 (total tickets sold for Friday, 8 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 22 / 51 (5 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 10 / 23 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 20 / 10 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 20 / 5 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 / 6 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 14 / 7 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): private event / 33 (still only 2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 28 / 48 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 46 / 47 (5 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 9/10 theaters till today for Thursday: 346 and for Friday: 475.

Yesterday: 250/366.
Comp: Black and Blue had on Thursday 244/262. 21 Bridges looks a bit weak between the coasts but B&B had the same problem. So judging from the presale numbers above the e.g. 8.4M prediction of boxofficepro seems (way) too low.

So what are you thinking for 21 Bridges. Mid teens.

[FlashMaster659]

Frozen II Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:00pm - 1:10pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	161	5102	35852	30750	14.23%

 

Total Shows Added Since Last Night: 2

Total Seats Added Since Last Night: 506

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night: 894

 

Mid-Day Comps:

	%	Time		Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Joker	72.25	10:00-11:30		7062		0/230	43120/50182	14.07%		9.61m
Maleficent	282.03	1:50-2:10		1809		0/84	18412/20221	8.95%		6.49m
Abominable	1301.53	12:00-12:25		392		0/79	13508/13900	2.82%		8.46m

 

===

 

Finally have comps to show. This is really underperforming here in the Inland Empire. Definitely thinking the preview number will end up being high single digits.

Edited November 21, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[keysersoze123]

1st thing is update to D2 sales.

 

F2 D2

MTC1 - overall 6553 shows 226884/1179030 2538756.96 2223791.33 pre noon 1594 shows 80681/248767 534739.14 533583.63 +27688
MTC2 - overall 6428 shows 206908/989655 1999744.00 post 6PM 2294 shows 35345/361464 424464.00 +25587

 

Good increase. I think at least 550K sales should happen across these 2 MTC by saturday morning. Also unlike Previews/Friday, MTC1 takes the lead for Sat(and Sun as well). This could be make or break day for F2 as it needs ginormous walkins to take it to 60m saturday.

[keysersoze123]

I also looked at Beautiful Day and 21 Bridges at MTC1 and its previews dont like like hitting even 1m.

 

Beautiful Day - 8081/108036 

21 Bridges - 7688/65784

 

I think 5x this number would be good for national and at this point neither movie have even hit 0.5m !!!!.  

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local

 

Chart under cut

Spoiler

 

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Preview Start
Shazam!					129/2229	(Afternoon)	187/2229	(3:30pm)	$5.9m	4:00 PM
Avengers: Endgame	3948/4,736	(12am)			4,853/5493	(9pm)			$60m	6:00 PM
Aladdin			98/1242	(12pm)					$7m	6:00 PM
Godzilla 2					135/1915	(7:45pm)	204/2150	(3:30pm)	$6.3m	4:00 PM
X-Men: DP			103/942	(4pm)	209/942	(3:15pm)	272/942	(3:45pm)	$5m	6:00 PM
SLOP 2			38/771	(4pm)	43/771	(3:15pm)			$2.3m	6:00 PM
Toy Story 4			165/2049	(4pm)	233/2049	(7:40pm)			$12m	6:00 PM
SM:FFH	142/922								$2.8m	Midnights Only
The Lion King	236/3228	(6:30pm)	294/3228	(6:20pm)	444/3228	(4:30pm)	557/3228	(4:30pm)	$23m	6:00 PM
OUATIH			117/1179	(2:15pm)	159/1179	(4pm)	335/1179	(4:20pm)	$5.8m	4:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw	60/1543	(5:20pm)			181/1543	(4pm)			$5.8m	7:00 PM
IT Part 2	147/2764	(9am)			239/2764	(7:10pm)			$10.5m	5:00 PM
Hustlers			45/512	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	$2.5m	6:00 PM
Downton Abbey (eps)			37/301	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	$2.2m	7:00 PM
Ad Astra			26/602	(4:30pm)	26/602	(4:30pm)	41/602	(4:30pm)	$1.5m	6:00 PM
Downton Abbey			31/512	(4:30pm)	39/512	(4:30pm)	52/1015	(4:30pm)	$2.1m	7:00 PM
Rambo			29/302	(4:30pm)	53/1242	(4:30pm)	58/1242	(4:30pm)	$1.3m	6:00 PM
Abominable			30/255	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	73/1969	(4:30pm)	$.65m	6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week)	104/2766	(9am)	172/2766	(4:30pm)			217/3536	(4pm)		4:00 PM
Joker	328/3536	(4:20pm)	399/3536	(4pm)	542/3536	(4pm)	760/3741	(3:45pm)	$13.3m	4:00 PM
Gemini Man			38/1004	(4pm)	38/1004	(4pm)	78/1004	[6:30pm]	$1.55m	7:00 PM
Adams Family		(4pm)	53/1373	(4pm)	49/1373	(4pm)			$1.25m	4:00 PM
Maleficent 2	39/1154	(4pm)	42/1154	(4pm)	33/834	(4pm)	96/1425	[6pm]	$2.3m	7:00 PM
Zombieland 2	51/1114	(4pm)	53/1114	(4pm)	67/1177	(4pm)	95/1478	[6pm]	$2.85m	7:00 PM
Black & Blue			19/410	(4pm)			20/410	(4pm)	$.68m	7:00 PM
Countdown			15/511	(4pm)			19/411	(4pm)	$.52m	7:00 PM
Terminator: DF	71/1242	(4pm)	71/1242	(4pm)	76/1242	(5:30pm)	113/1242	(4pm)	$2.35m	7:00 PM
Harriet	25/512	(4pm)	25/512	(4pm)	27/512	(5:30pm)	29/512	(4pm)	$.6m	7:00 PM
Midway	20/512	(4pm)	23/512	(4pm)	22/512	(4:30pm)	27/512	(5pm)	$.925m	7:00 PM
Dr Sleep	23/510	(4pm)	28/510	(4pm)	28/510	(4:30pm)	53/512	(5pm)	$1.5m	6:00 PM
Last Christmas	12/496	(4pm)	12/496	(4pm)	12/496	(4:30pm)	16/496	(5pm)	$.575m	7:00 PM
Playing With Fire	15/654	(4pm)	15/654	(4pm)	15/654	(4:30pm)	18/654	(4pm)		4:00 PM
Ford v Ferrari	50/1152	(4pm)	48/1152	(4pm)	53/1152	(4pm)	65/1152	(5:30pm)	$2.1m	6:00 PM
Charlies Angels	18/903	(4pm)	18/903	(4pm)	18/903	(4pm)	20/903	(4pm)	$.9m	4:00 PM
Frozen	122/1824	(4pm)	169/ 2724	(4pm)	208/ 2724	(4:30pm)	304/2274	(4:30pm)		6:00 PM
					227/2724	(7:45pm)
Beautiful Day	30/768	(4pm)	30/768	(4pm)	36/768	(4:30pm)	52/768	(4:30pm)		6:00 PM
21 Bridges	26/492	(4pm)	25/492	(4pm)	30/492	(4:30pm)	44/492	(4:30pm)		7:00 PM
Knives Out (F&S eps)	42/514	(4pm)	53/514	(4pm)	67/514	(4:30pm)	85/514	(4:30pm)		7:00 PM

 

 

 

 

 

I had the wrong seat totals for KO, ABDITK and 2!B.  Fixed.   Good upticks for all films

 

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Preview Start
Frozen	122/1824	(4pm)	169/ 2724	(4pm)	208/ 2724	(4:30pm)	304/2274	(4:30pm)	6:00 PM
					227/2724	(7:45pm)
Beautiful Day	30/768	(4pm)	30/768	(4pm)	36/768	(4:30pm)	52/768	(4:30pm)	6:00 PM
21 Bridges	26/492	(4pm)	25/492	(4pm)	30/492	(4:30pm)	44/492	(4:30pm)	7:00 PM
Knives Out (F&S eps)	42/514	(4pm)	53/514	(4pm)	67/514	(4:30pm)	85/514	(4:30pm)	7:00 PM

 

Preview Comps (FWTW):

 

Frozen:  (no Thur comp for TS4)

TLK: $12.55m

 

21 Bridges:

Harriet: $.91m

B&B: $1.496m

Gemini Man: $.87m

Rambo: $.986m

 

ABDITK
FvF: $1.68m

DA: $2.1m

Midway: $1.78m

Harriet. $1.075m