The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

That and they wanted that nice Thanksgiving drop.  Releasing a week before just extends the holiday money.  It might make less on the end with X-Mas but probably not enough to offset having 4 more days right b/4 Thanksgiving.

Yep, makes sense.

 

They're right back to the Wednesday release date with Raya and the Last Dragon next year so this was a one-off. It also helped that there wasn't a big tentpole opening on this date like there usually is on the pre-Thanksgiving weekend.

 

2018: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (November 16)

2017: Justice League (November 17)

2016: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (November 18)

2015: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 (November 20)

2014: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 (November 21)

2013: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (November 22)

2012: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 (November 16)

2011: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 (November 18)

2010: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1 (November 19)

2009: The Twilight Saga: New Moon (November 20)

2008: Twilight (November 21)

 

That's a pretty long standing tradition on the movie calendar. Disney had a huge opportunity this year and they took it I guess.

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Sure but B&B had a much bigger preview with $16.3m and still did a near 10.7x.  If this does $9m that's 45% lower. Having a multi 40% higher is again not out of bounds.

Agreed, I think 15x or higher is very doable. 

[JB33]

10 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Sure but B&B had a much bigger preview with $16.3m and still did a near 10.7x.  If this does $9m that's 45% lower. Having a multi 40% higher is again not out of bounds.

That's good to hear! I agree that a high multi (aka over 15) isn't very far-fetched. There's just so much demand to see this that won't be burned off on Thursday night. We're talking about a ton of families who are content to take their kids on Friday evening/Saturday/Sunday, rather than catch a Thursday preview.

[ThomasNicole]

So $ 9-10M previews and then a very backloaded weekend

 

Considering how the presales for The weekend are way more impressive than previews since presales begin, i wouldn’t be surprised with 15-16x previews

 

$ 140-160M OW seems like a good range

[keysersoze123]

F2 Previews Update

 

MTC1 - 120155/434131(2506 shows) +15589 for about 4hr 20min
MTC2 - 113563/412974(2794 shows)  +16105 6 hours

 

So its at 233.7K. I will again check in couple of hours but 250K looks tough. I would say 240-245K. My range for previews would be 8.5-9.2.

Also MTC1 was trailing MTC2 most of PS but took lead just this evening. But still the ratio is still way off.

 

Comparisons

 

Mal 2 previews my final update

MTC1 -  40347/207294(1101 shows) 740PM

MTC2 - 31733/193916 - 750PM

 

My final number was taken around similar time. So that ratio puts F2 even lower at 7.5m. But I will go higher as bigger movies tend to play wider.

[keysersoze123]

Empire and LS combined to 1773/5657. Empire alone sold 2741 tickets for TLK. I dont have LS data. @captainwondyful let me know if you need show wise breakup. I can message you that.

[ZackM]

Frozen 2 - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Friday Seat Report: Final Presales

 

11/21/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	415	66,073	77,196	11,123	14.41%

[keysersoze123]

F2 OD Update

MTC1 - overall 5849 shows 199477/1094754 2741229.27 2251406.43 post 6PM 2643 shows 118021/505509 1723649.32 1382116.80 +25629
MTC2 - overall 6459 shows 207903/996108 2146150.00 post 6PM 6459 shows 207903/996108 2146150.00 +30879

 

Very good increase since this morning. Could hit 5m between the two chains by morning show start time. So that would be 15m national PS.

[LegendaryBen]

I hope Ford vs Ferrari had a good Thursday hold.

[Eric Duncan]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-28 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	165	8,849	30,741	28.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 59

 

Comp

4.652x of Once Upon’s final count (26.98M)

2.555x of It: Chapter Two (26.82M)

1.802x of Joker (23.97M)

12.696x of Maleficent (29.20M)

10.160x of Terminator (23.87M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.752x of Lion King (17.30M)

3.570x of Hobbs & Shaw (20.71M)

[Cap]

v Final Sales Comps
Movie	Sold	%	Est
Frozen II
Cinemagic	226	--	--
Toy Story 4	558	40.50%	4.86M
The Lion King	561	40.28%	9.27M
Average:			7.06M
Lincoln Square	493	--	--
Toy Story 4	1273	38.72%	4.64M
The Lion King	2483	19.85%	4.57M
Average:			4.60M
Movie	Sold	%	Est
A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood
Cinemagic	64	--	--
Rocketman	57	112.28%	1.96M
OUATIH	237	27.00%	1.56M
Average:			1.76M
Lincoln Square	266	--	--
Rocketman	470	56.60%	0.990M
OUATIH	1232	21.59%	1.25M
Last Christmas	169	157.39%	0.905M
Average:			1.05M
Movie	Sold	%	Est
21 Bridges
Empire 25	192	--	--
Midway	243	79.01%	0.731M
Doctor Sleep	454	42.29%	0.634M
Terminator	564	34.04%	0.817M
Gemini Man	601	31.95%	0.551M
Average:			0.683M

 

 

Me @ the Frozen Comps:

 

 

Me Knowing Saturday Is Coming:

 

 

Me Worrying Saturday Won't Deliver:

 

 

Me Not Caring Cause Thanksgiving Is Right Around The Corner And I SAW IT AND IT WAS THE BEST OMG:

 

 

 

Anyway,

 

I don't have perfect comps for Neighborhood, but the comps are consistent which is nice.  I feel like 1.25M would be a good start.  

 

If 21 Bridges makes 1M that'd be lovely.  It's comping out just shy of it.  I think the theater count could be holding it back.  

 

And big thanks to @Thanos Legion for getting my late show numbers while I was in the theater crying over Elsa.

 

[keysersoze123]

Beautiful Day Previews

MTC1 - overall 824 shows 14656/108117 180852.20
MTC2 - overall 853 shows 12192/97575 131160.00

 

That is 312K between 2 chains. I would say previews would be around 850K.

 

21 Bridges previews

MTC1 - overall 560 shows 16426/65861 206743.39
MTC2 overall 544 shows 9536/60579 104655.00

 

21 Bridges had better finish at MTC1 and sold more with fewer shows but overall Beautiful day slightly did better. Also I am expecting bridges to have sold more child tickets than beautiful day. Still I am expecting 21 bridges previews around 800k.

 

[Curtis1986]

I am all hear for 21 Bridges being a mini brake out 

Edited November 22, 2019 by Curtis1986

[DAJK]

Just gonna be a quick report tonight:

 

Beautiful Day

89 tickets

72.3% Zombieland - $2.08M

36% Downton Abby - 756k

89% Hustlers - 1.55M

88% Rocketman - 1.54M

 

Overall very solid here. Included zombieland cause it's a pretty recent comp here and that one did pretty well in Victoria, as I assume something like Beautiful Day would. Everything is pretty encouraging, especially considering Downton was inflated here for sure cause I'm pretty sure the filmmakers literally thought of this city when they made the movie Anyway gonna go with something like 1.4M based on these comps, but given how overperforming these types of movies are here, I'll temper it and say closer to 1-1.15M

 

 

Frozen

Holy crap I just realized it's after 10:15... don't have time to post all my comps but let's just say it was massive here, somewhere in the 16M vicinity. 

[keysersoze123]

Final Final update

F2 finished at 246.5K with MTC2 slightly edging out MTC1. I would still stick to 8.5-9m for previews. Weird that there is no Deadline article for this. TS4 had one and So did TLK.

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-28 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	205	11718	24152	12434	51.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

69

 

T-28 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-28	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	388.12		52	3063		2/81	7605/10616	28.36%		80.34m
TROS (adj)	n/a		69	11888		2/205	11002/22890	51.94%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

 

T-28 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-28	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	164.79		89	6452		1/116	4673/11125	58.00%		64.27m
TROS (adj)	n/a		61	10632		2/205	8139/18771	56.64%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	70.14		15159		10632		27.35m
DP2	130.73		8133		10632		24.32m
Solo	183.66		5789		10632		25.90m
JW:FK	170.71		6228		10632		26.12m
AM&tW	230.88		4605		10632		26.55m
Venom	246.27		4493		11065		24.63m
CM	112.65		10553		11888		23.32m
EG	44.60		26655		11888		26.76m
TLK	108.30		10977		11888		24.91m
It 2	219.72		5659		12434		23.07m
AVG							25.29m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

[el sid]

15 hours ago, LegendaryBen said:

Thanks for doing this. Anything on A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood?

No, I think only Eric counted it every day.
I looked at its ticket sales at the AMC Universal a few minutes ago and would say they're ok, but not overwhelming (78 tickets for today).
But given the very good reviews and the older target audience that doesn't mean much and e.g. boxofficepro has it at 16M OW. The Audience Score at the moment is also good (RT, 90%).

[a2k]

...wrong thread

Edited November 22, 2019 by a2k

[el sid]

13 hours ago, Curtis1986 said:

So what are you thinking for 21 Bridges. Mid teens.

That would be nice and I wouldn't rule it out but I fear that the numbers between the coasts are too low for that.
But from where I live I have no idea how big the buzz actually is and which walk ups it will have in the big cities...

[TalismanRing]

21 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Knives Out Early Sneaks 

 

Tracking 16 theaters in NYC with a couple from NJ

 

Friday: 1,483/2,315= 64.06%

Saturday: 1,005/2,189 =45.91%

Total:  2,488/4,404 = 56.49%

 

Most have one show Fri & Sat (7pm).   Except AMC 25, Alamo & Kips Bay - with AMC adding another Friday and the other two another Fri & Sat after near sellouts. Newport is sold out both nights except for 1 ticket (no extra shows added yet).  Lincoln Plaza has 4 wheel chair seats left for Friday but no extra shows added yet.

 

(They're looking pretty sizeable in NYC.  I don't have overall comps across the 16 theaters but preview sales at my local are already ahead of FvF's Thur 4pm (70 to 65 with 2 v 4 showings) and well ahead of DA's 52 (regular previews & across 4 showings)

 

 

Numbers as of midnight - 633 tickets sold yesterday.  Alamo added a 3rd show for F&S, AMC Empire added a 2nd for Saturday.

 

Friday:   1,763/2,429 = 72.58%    
Saturday: 1,358/2,429 = 55.9%    
Total:    3,121/4,858 = 64.24%