The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Normally I wouldn't be too concerned about these Day Two numbers for this type of film.  But it is just ten days away (or rather, these are the ten days away numbers).

 

Dunno.  Might just be getting lost in the Frozen 2/TROS shuffle.  One the other hand, the last Jumanji had competition as well on the front end when Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League grosses are combined (not to mention Coco hanging around on the fringes).

 

Don't want to say we might have a SLOP2 situation developing (well received film that still gets a "nah, one was enough; I'm good"), as it is far too early to say that.  And TROS could always prove to be just as divisive as its predecessor, allowing The Next Level room to roam.

 

But gots to say, these aren't really encouraging signs.  Not predicting doom and gloom as this is still the holidays coming up and there's plenty of movie going dollars to go around.  But not a great start.  Just no other way to put it.

Yeah, these aren't just bad Day 2 numbers, these are bad T-10 numbers. And that without much of a cushion beforehand.

[keysersoze123]

On 12/2/2019 at 8:03 PM, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 Previews (T-17)

MTC1 - overall 5130 shows 311351/856154 4650046.80 +2333
MTC2- overall 3059 shows 204661/448262 2606313.00 +1705

 

Quick update. So back to normal after really strong increase yesterday. This is slightly under a day(around 21 hours).

SW9 Previews (T-16)

MTC1 - overall 5141 shows 314867/857840 4700212.38  +3516
MTC2 - overall 3063 shows 207321/448881 2637776.00 +2660

 

Much better than yesterday. More than 50% better. Still the increase 2 day before was the anomaly. So the next major boost should be from reviews.

[Eric Atreides]

Jumanji: The Next Level Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	56	113	13,524	0.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 14

 

Comp

0.145x of Joker 9 days before release (1.93M)

0.785x of Maleficent (1.80M)

0.123x of Frozen II (1.04M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.401x of Hobbs & Shaw (2.32M)

 

Actually not that bad all things considered. Like I said earlier, the film gained ground with many of the films listed, and while I'd argue none of these numbers would be any good, and the current total of seats sold is on the low side for a movie coming out in about a week, there's still a couple more days of action for it to really impress. Just gonna wait and see, but I'm optimistic.

[Eric Atreides]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	165	9,896	30,741	32.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 106

 

Comp

5.203x of Once Upon’s final count (30.18M)

2.857x of It: Chapter Two (30M)

2.015x of Joker (26.8M)

14.198x of Maleficent (32.65M)

11.362x of Terminator (26.7M)

2.944x of Frozen II (25.03M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.860x of Lion King (19.78M)

4.081x of Hobbs & Shaw (23.67M)

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	210	10812	24504	13692	55.88%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	51
Total Seats Sold Today	137

 

T-16 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL FOR CM - DON'T USE THERE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	365.06		52	3578		2/83	7127/10705	33.42%		75.57m
EG	73.32		156	17815		11/223	5369/23184	76.84%		43.99m
TROS (adj)	n/a		132	13062		2/210	10194/23256	56.17%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame. 

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Endgame had 24 days of pre-sales.

 

T-16 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	156.21		88	7434		3/117	3781/11125	66.29%		60.92m
Solo	367.50		58	3160		0/87	6261/9348	33.02%		51.82m
TROS (adj)	n/a		96	11613		2/210	7526/19139	60.68%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War and Solo.

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales and Solo 21 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

Spoiler

of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	76.61		15159		11613		29.88m
DP2	142.79		8133		11613		26.56m
Solo	200.60		5789		11613		28.29m
JW:FK	186.46		6228		11613		28.53m
AM&tW	252.18		4605		11613		29.00m
Venom	270.44		4493		12151		27.04m
CM	123.78		10553		13062		25.62m
EG	49.00		26655		13062		29.40m
TLK	118.99		10977		13062		27.37m
It 2	241.95		5659		13692		25.40m
AVG							27.71m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	256	14735	53600	38865	27.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 156

[cdsacken]

I feel like there should be a sub 200m domestic, sub 600 we Jumanji club.

[RockyMountain]

1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

I feel like there should be a sub 200m domestic, sub 600 we Jumanji club.

I think rather it opens under 200m domestic or over 200m domestic will largely depend on how good the reviews end up being. It's probably borderline currently right now without any buzz as to how good the movie actually is (lol unless your whole post was just a big joke about Jumanji's opening).

Edited December 4, 2019 by RockyMountain

[xiazhi]

14 hours ago, Poseidon said:

Jumanji is a comedy AND a kids movie. Pretty much the 2 least pre-sold genres out there.
 

The weeks after TG are usually pretty slow at the BO.

I wouldn't write this off, not at all. 

 

It's really hard to see them coming in december and we should really have a look if presales might be lower that time of the year for future comparisons. 

There was one thing in favour of the first Jumanji: It had huge trailer clicks.

Jumanji 2 doubled them...

I still think this could go anywhere between 150m and 350m+

Shazam is a comedy AND a kids movie too. Very pre-sale heavy

[Legion Again]

3 hours ago, RockyMountain said:

I think rather it opens under 200m domestic or over 200m domestic will largely depend on how good the reviews end up being. It's probably borderline currently right now without any buzz as to how good the movie actually is (lol unless your whole post was just a big joke about Jumanji's opening).

They didn’t say anything to do with TROS??? Or about OWs. They said <200 DOM And 600 WW for Jumanji total.

[Poseidon]

16 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

Shazam is a comedy AND a kids movie too. Very pre-sale heavy

 

Shazam is, first of all, a comic adaptation. 
It's the same ballpark as Spider Man.

[Justin4125]

14 hours ago, Poseidon said:

Jumanji is a comedy AND a kids movie. Pretty much the 2 least pre-sold genres out there.
 

Jumanji is as much a comedy as any MCU movie and as much a kids movie as any four-quad movie in general. I'd say its much more a kind of action adventure type film for all ages (clearly with a strong comedic bent, but its absolutely not a traditional comedy and shouldnt be compared to those films pre-sales wise). I think the low presales can be pretty easily explained. There isnt much of a Jumanji fanbase, its targeted to general audiences and walkups like the first one was. I expect it to be backloaded as hell, though I also doubt we'll see a repeat of the first one legs wise

[CJohn]

4 hours ago, cdsacken said:

I feel like there should be a sub 200m domestic, sub 600 we Jumanji club.

Too easy, It is obviously going under 200M DOM.

[filmlover]

 

 

[Eric Atreides]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 

 

I don't see as much, but there some Waves showtimes also popping up around my area too.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Eric Plus said:

I don't see as much, but there some Waves showtimes also popping up around my area too.

Might as well take advantage of the dead weekend as theaters are no doubt eager to drop stuff that isn't selling like Charlie's Angels, even if they'll be dropped everywhere in two weeks.

[Porthos]

The major thing that is holding me back on doom and gloom on The Next Level is what happened with Fallen Kingdom.  This thread was chock full of people wondering just where the pre-sales were for a sequel to a film that did 200 OW/650 DOM, myself included.  Got to the point where there was serious debate whether or not the 125m OW trade estimates were way over-predicted.

 

Ended up getting 148m on OW as walkups exploded, far beyond what most of the Tracking thread thought for most of the pre-sale run.

 

So here we have a sequel to a film that did 400m DOM last go around.  Clearly there was some juice to the whole idea.  Being a sequel with a known star there should be some level of frontloading. Then again, Hobbs and Shaw says "Hello". It had abysmal pre-sales until the week of release.  It still managed to claw its way to 5.8m on previews.  That says to me that The Next Level could approach that that if something similar happens.

 

Finally, there is the elephant in the room that this is the holiday season.  Even if TROS does what most folks expect, this is clear counter programming and it might, and I do mean might, find enough holiday dollars out there to have a nice little run.  Might repeat the 50m OW and have "just" a 5x mulit.

 

"Just a 5x" he said.  

 

...

 

Or it could SLOP2 its way to a 175m to 225m total.  Who knows.  Not me, that's for sure.

Edited December 4, 2019 by Porthos

[cdsacken]

But didn't Fallen Kingdom have long range tracking of 130-150m OW?

 

Jumani is eyeing 40m. 4x generous legs is 160 domestic. 3.5 is 140

[Alli]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

 

 

Jumani is eyeing 40m. 4x generous legs is 160 domestic. 3.5 is 140

why would it have only 4X legs? The first one had 11X

Edited December 4, 2019 by Alli

[Porthos]

Just now, cdsacken said:

But didn't Fallen Kingdom have long range tracking of 130-150m OW?

If memory serves, and it might not, tracking went down as it got closer to release.

 

Either way, I do strongly recall that this thread was highly skeptical of it coming close to those numbers until pre-sales really started to ramp up on the week of release.