The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Jumanji 2 Previews (T-9)

MTC1 - overall 1534 shows 6150/328297 107217.27 +1503
MTC2 - overall 2654 shows 3473/433710 43750.00 +1146

 

Very mediocre numbers. I guess real action wont happen until wednesday next week.

Jumanji 2 previews (T-8)

MTC1 Prev - overall 1534 shows 7260/327868 126648.69 +1110
MTC2 Prev - overall 2677 shows 4175/437160 52508.00 +702

 

Not great. I was just looking at where Mal 2 was at similar point and this is well below that at similar point at least at MTC1. That said this will be similar to H&S rather than any other movie. It will have great finish to PS enough to having ok OW. I think it needs at least H&S OW plus good WOM to take it to respectable total.

 

On 10/9/2019 at 10:12 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mal2 (T-8)

MTC1(747 shows) - 10093/152118 (+381)

MTC2(1056 shows) - 4203/142620(+217)

 

I guess it will be under 12k before start of next week and then hopefully it accelerates. I think previews are looking sub 5m at this point.

 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

why would it have only 4X legs? The first one had 11X

11x for the first one is more than a little misleading as it had 16.6m already grossed before its first FSS.

 

Mind, 400+ DOM off of 54m is still a fantastic 7.66x.  But that ain't 11x.

 

More to the point, the holiday placement really worked to Jumanji's advantage, as it gathered steam into Xmas.  It's not going to have that advantage this go around.

[Taruseth]

19 minutes ago, Alli said:

why would it have only 4X legs? The first one had 11X

4x most likely will be too low, yes, but this can't be compared to the first.

Because:

-different starting points (this one comes two years after a $400M movie)

-this opens on a Friday, J1 opened on a Wednesday

-J1 had Christmas Eve depress it's Sunday and Christmas Day, Boxing Day in it's weekdays.

-J1 opened during the crowded Christmas weekend (against the 2nd weekend of TLJ), this will open against nothing (apart from Frozen II) -> higher opening and it will have RTOS in it's second weekend, which will take away screens.

 

Edited December 4, 2019 by Taruseth

[cdsacken]

2017 was lightning in a bottle remaking in a new image the old one from 22 years ago. 2 years later a sequel looking basically identical to the first that no one needed.

 

Screen count is fall Fast too unless it explodes. I mean star wars is gonna do nuts. Any screens they can away from it they will and should. 

 

 

Edited December 4, 2019 by cdsacken

[xiazhi]

2 hours ago, Poseidon said:

 

Shazam is, first of all, a comic adaptation. 
It's the same ballpark as Spider Man.

jumanji is a sequel while shazam is not. They are both targeted for kids and teens. Should be very alike.

[TwoMisfits]

And here's the deal people will wait for to pop all the Dec 14th and later movies' presales...here's hoping Jumanji comboes a $5 off 2 tickets deal, and makes this a must get deal:)...

 

Tuesday December 10, 2019 via T-Mobile Tuesdays App:

Atom Tickets: $5 off movie ticket. No ticket fees

 

Edited December 4, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Porthos]

Look, I'm not discounting the possibility of great legs for The Next Level.  The last Jumanji flick did 178m DOM... in January.  And damn near 50m DOM in February (47.58m for the record).  That's well after the holiday window.

 

At the same time it helped that setting aside whether or not one thinks it was a great movie, a terrible one, or something in-between, TLJ wasn't exactly a crowd-pleasing film full of spectacle that drives repeat performance from the masses.  Jumanji stepped into that void and took full advantage of it and then some.

 

Can't guarantee at all something similar will happen here.

 

It's that phenomenon in part which makes some people say Jumanji captured lightning in a bottle.  And expecting the sequel to repeat that magic is almost as ridiculous as expecting TLJ to come close to TFA's performance.

[Brainbug]

@cdsacken and @Porthos

 

You mentioned Fallen Kingdom and my memories are there again and in full action. Just days before it opened, there was a majority on these forums here that thought Fallen Kingdom would open under 100M OW. It was basically me and like 10 other people who tried to explain to everyone else that Jurassic Park is one of those few franchises where the actual hard fanbase is so small, that they dont make a real dent regarding presales. The success of JP movies was and is entirely dependent on audience reaction and - above all else - demand for another film. Jurassic World was liked by the majority of the GA, so a sequel was always going to open above 100M. It was honestly a no brainer in my mind.

 

Regarding The Next Level, i have to say that i dont see a real danger for that film. Welcome to the Jungle had practically no real hype and it exploded anyway because when you make a well-liked family film and you open it during the holidays, youll make money. The film has to satiesfy audience expectation and then i see  it approaching 200-250M. I mean, 400M should really not be the bar of success for this one

[Poseidon]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

At the same time it helped that setting aside whether or not one thinks it was a great movie, a terrible one, or something in-between, TLJ wasn't exactly a crowd-pleasing film full of spectacle that drives repeat performance from the masses.  Jumanji stepped into that void and took full advantage of it and then some.

 

It's not THAT easy, though.

You don't create a 400m movie by filling a gap and pointing a middle finger to SW. 
Said SW movie earned $620m next to it. While this certainly was a big step back from the enormous EP7, it still was one of the biggest movies of all time. 

 

 

[Porthos]

I thought about "@ing" you, @Brainbug, but then decided to let you chime in on your own.

 

Do think the under 100m OW discussion was more meme-y than serious, but I'm not gonna go back and check.  Do agree that there was serious discussion pro/con over it and you turned out to be right.  In retrospect we probably should have paid more attention to the OS rollout and just said "Well, tickets aren't sold yet, but I guess they're coming sooner or later". 

 

As it is, was a good lesson in humility for the thread, I think.  I know that and Solo (in the other direction) has given me all the humility I need to not make absolute judgements and then some. 👍

[Porthos]

Just now, Poseidon said:

It's not THAT easy, though.

You don't create a 400m movie by filling a gap and pointing a middle finger to SW. 
Said SW movie earned $620m next to it. While this certainly was a big step back from the enormous EP7, it still was one of the biggest movies of all time. 

 

 

Never claimed it was.  Why I made sure to say "in part" and added "it helped that".

 

That being said, if TLJ had been some sort of crowd-pleasing monster it could have sucked up enough movie going dollars to put a serious crimp in Jumanji's run.

 

At the same time the fact that it ISN'T easy is one big reason why folks aren't expecting a repeat this time around.  Simply too many factors have to repeat.  

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

Star Wars: TROS -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 5:00pm CST -- 15 Days to Previews  

 

 

Dolby Cinema
07:00pm: 205/205 -- SOLD OUT 

10:40pm: 143/205

02:15am: 17/205 

 

IMAX / IMAX 3D

06:00pm: 117/151 

09:40pm: 101/151 

01:20am: 9/151

 

Real 3D

06:00pm: 20/125 

06:20pm: 0/76

06:25pm: 3/76

06:30pm: 3/76 

06:45pm: 8/60

07:00pm: 5/60

07:15pm: 14/60

09:45pm: 0/125

10:05pm: 0/76

10:10pm: 0/76

10:30pm: 2/76

10:40pm: 0/60

10:50pm: 0/60

11:10pm: 0/60

01:45am: 0/76

 

Digital 

06:00pm: 99/147

06:15pm: 46/60

07:30pm: 40/60

07:45pm: 19/44 

08:00pm: 19/44

08:15pm: 20/44

08:45pm: 58/125

09:50pm: 39/147

09:55pm: 10/76

10:00pm: 2/76

11:25pm: 0/44

11:40pm: 0/44

11:55pm: 0/44

12:25am: 0/125

1:30am: 0/147

1:40am: 0/76

 

Fan Event

05:00pm: 100/125

 

 

TOTAL

1099 tickets sold out of 3638 seats available (30.21%)

 

 

 

Comps to Final Tracked Numbers

Captain Marvel = 1440 sold @ 5:30pm - Thursday

Avengers: Endgame = 3623 sold @ 5:30pm - Thursday 

Toy Story 4 = 822 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday 

The Lion King = 1570 sold @ 4:00pm - Thursday

Joker = 659 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/3/2019 at 3:51 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1736

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1778

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9028	109	22870	39.48%	9	182

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 21.91M

Final Maleficent count comp: 25.60M

Final IT 2 count comp: 24.41M

Final Hobbs count comp: 25.52M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 26.06M

Final Lion King count comp: 27.37M

 

Average: 25.15M

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1747

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1787

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9122	94	22870	39.89%	9	182

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 22.14M

Final Maleficent count comp: 25.87M

Final IT 2 count comp: 24.67M

Final Hobbs count comp: 25.78M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 26.32M

Final Lion King count comp: 27.65M

 

Average: 25.41M

[cdsacken]

46 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

@cdsacken and @Porthos

 

You mentioned Fallen Kingdom and my memories are there again and in full action. Just days before it opened, there was a majority on these forums here that thought Fallen Kingdom would open under 100M OW. It was basically me and like 10 other people who tried to explain to everyone else that Jurassic Park is one of those few franchises where the actual hard fanbase is so small, that they dont make a real dent regarding presales. The success of JP movies was and is entirely dependent on audience reaction and - above all else - demand for another film. Jurassic World was liked by the majority of the GA, so a sequel was always going to open above 100M. It was honestly a no brainer in my mind.

 

Regarding The Next Level, i have to say that i dont see a real danger for that film. Welcome to the Jungle had practically no real hype and it exploded anyway because when you make a well-liked family film and you open it during the holidays, youll make money. The film has to satiesfy audience expectation and then i see  it approaching 200-250M. I mean, 400M should really not be the bar of success for this one

True. However OW plummeted 60 million and the legs were worse. In this case I think OW won't plummet but the legs will. I very much expect it to be under 200m unless it hits above 50m ow which seems unlikely. It will lose all premium formats after 1 week and frankly it deserves that given given current presales. 

 

I'm going 175 total.

Edited December 4, 2019 by cdsacken

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/3/2019 at 4:14 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jumanji: The Next Level Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

41

1686

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

45

1610

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
162	37	11405	1.42%	9	58

 

Frozen 2 comp: 1.18M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 2.11M

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 2.36M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 2.66M

 

These numbers aren't good at all. Maybe it'll end up being more backloaded and walkup based though. Take that Frozen 2 comp with a big grain of salt rn, and the others too, albeit a smaller grain of salt.

Jumanji: The Next Level Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

46

1686

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

46

1610

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
180	18	11405	1.58%	9	58

 

Frozen 2 comp: 1.16M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 2.17M

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 2.22M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 2.39M

Adjusted Lion King comp: 1.03M

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jumanji: The Next Level Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

46

1686

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

46

1610

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
180	18	11405	1.58%	9	58

 

Frozen 2 comp: 1.16M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 2.17M

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 2.22M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 2.39M

Adjusted Lion King comp: 1.03M

Damn, comps going down on day 3 of ps is not a great sign. This needs a big time final week and walkups.

Edited December 4, 2019 by Menor

[ZackM]

Jumanji: The Next Level Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago
Showings Added	19	0	79
Seats Added	5,717	-300	15,505
Seats Sold	181	18	178
12/4/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	98	20,545	20,922	377	1.80%

 

Big increase in sales for Jumanji here in Michigan due to a bunch of theaters finally scheduling previews last night.

[ZackM]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	0	0	0
Seats Added	4	27	5	17	3
Seats Sold	220	260	120	218	168
12/4/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	237	27,314	41,919	14,605	34.84%

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 Previews (T-16)

MTC1 - overall 5141 shows 314867/857840 4700212.38  +3516
MTC2 - overall 3063 shows 207321/448881 2637776.00 +2660

 

Much better than yesterday. More than 50% better. Still the increase 2 day before was the anomaly. So the next major boost should be from reviews.

SW9 Previews (T-15)

MTC1 - overall 5145 shows 318294/858435 4750197.72 +3427
MTC2 - overall 3064 shows 209652/448727 2664796.00 +2331

 

Slightly smaller increase than yesterday but much better than day before that.

 

[Porthos]

Cats tickets are now on sale!!!! 

 

(7pm previews, mercifully enough)

 

EDITED:::

 

Checked both Fandango's Twitter account and the official Twitter account for the Cats movie and no announcements over there, so it might just be "eh, go ahead and start selling them ahead of an official announcement as you load the schedules up, we don't care" type situation. 

 

Official announcement will probably come any day now.

Edited December 5, 2019 by Porthos