The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Duncan]

Jumanji: The Next Level Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	59	120	13,812	0.87%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 288

Total Seats Sold Today: 7

 

Comp

0.805x of Maleficent 8 days before release (1.85M)

0.113x of Frozen II (965K)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.341x of Hobbs & Shaw (1.98M)

 

Decided to throw Joker out. The gap was getting wider and wider, and it's evident the two are playing very differently. But yeah, this was really bad. Maleficent comp got an increase, but that's not a movie whose previews you should try and replicate. I'm sure it'll pick up in the end, but I do think it's fair to have some concerns here.

[charlie Jatinder]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

More to the point, the holiday placement really worked to Jumanji's advantage

holiday placement is better this time for legs than it was for first one releasing pre-holiday.

 

Its contrary for TRS which is releasing much closer to Xmas.

[Eric Duncan]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	165	10,090	30,741	32.82%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 194

 

Comp

5.305x of Once Upon’s final count (30.77M)

2.913x of It: Chapter Two (30.58M)

2.055x of Joker (27.33M)

14.477x of Maleficent (33.29M)

11.584x of Terminator (27.22M)

3.002x of Frozen II (25.52M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.881x of Lion King (20.27M)

4.182x of Hobbs & Shaw (24.26M)

 

 

This is TROS' best day since Day 2 of presales all the way back in October. Sure, it's December now, but it's still leaps and bounds above the past couple days, and gave a substantial boost to each comp listed. Now, we finally have every movie above 20M in the comps department. For whatever reason, a lot of theaters that were only selling a handful day to day really exploded, which helped contribute significantly.

 

It's especially impressive, because I don't feel like there was any main reason for it to. No big TV spot, no featurette. There was the cast press conference, but it wasn't trending or anything. There was Rise of the Resistance being previewed, but Florida's far away from here, so it wouldn't really excite the demographic here, would it? Either way, still great. I definitely expect the film to drop down to Earth tomorrow, but it's still a nice sign of life.

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

holiday placement is better this time for legs than it was for first one releasing pre-holiday.

 

Its contrary for TRS which is releasing much closer to Xmas.

I disagree that The Next Level's placement is better than TROS's as TROS is gonna have schools out for (nearly) all of its first 14 days when movies make a ton of their money. The winter break for nearly all schools I've checked (both college and primary/high school) are from Dec 21 to Jan 5.  Some are even getting Mon Jan 6th off for one reason or another.

 

Having Xmas Eve and New Year's Eve fall on Discount Tue sucks, sure.  But all of the other days should more than make up for it.  Especially if the WOM is good (which we have no clue yet, one way or the other).

 

But maybe I just don't want to have to sit through all of the talk again about TLJ's first MTWTh when it fell like a normal movie and folks freaked the fuck out over that, forgetting that schools were still in session, not to mention folks not being on their own holiday breaks.  Having to suffer THAT conversation once was more than enough, thank yew veddy much.  

Edited December 5, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	210	10657	24504	13847	56.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

155

 

T-15 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL FOR CM - DON'T USE THERE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	360.33		90	3668		2/83	7037/10705	34.26%		74.59m
EG	73.36		202	18017		12/239	6208/24225	74.37%		44.02m
TROS (adj)	n/a		155	13217		2/210	10039/23256	56.83%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame. 

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Endgame had 24 days of pre-sales.

 

T-15 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	156.30		82	7516		3/118	3779/11295	66.54%		60.96m
Solo	371.77		73	3160		0/87	6188/9348	33.80%		52.42m
TROS (adj)	n/a		135	11748		2/210	7391/19139	61.38%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War and Solo.

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales and Solo 21 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

Spoiler

of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	77.50		15159		11748		30.22m
DP2	144.45		8133		11748		26.87m
Solo	202.94		5789		11748		28.61m
JW:FK	188.63		6228		11748		28.86m
AM&tW	255.11		4605		11748		29.34m
Venom	273.60		4493		12293		27.36m
CM	125.24		10553		13217		25.93m
EG	49.59		26655		13217		29.75m
TLK	120.41		10977		13217		27.69m
It 2	244.69		5659		13847		25.69m
AVG							28.03m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

48 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I disagree that The Next Level's placement is better than TROS's as TROS is gonna have schools out for (nearly) all of its first 14 days when movies make a ton of their money.

Not in absolute sense. Just a general rule.

 

If a film is releasing pre-holiday it will have longer legs than while releasing in holiday. Recent example Frozen 2.

 

I wasn't comparing with Jumanji with TRS but with TLJ. TLJ when post its 1st week had still Christmas holidays to spend (15-21), while this time TRS will have Christmas holiday in 1st week itself making it more front-loaded. 

 

I hope it clears, sorry for being vague earlier, that made you write so much.

[Inceptionzq]

52 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Having Xmas Eve and New Year's Eve fall on Discount Tue sucks, sure.  But all of the other days should more than make up for it.  Especially if the WOM is good (which we have no clue yet, one way or the other).

A lot of theaters don’t do discounts during the Holidays

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

A lot of theaters don’t do discounts during the Holidays

Yes, that is true.  Cinemark for instance isn't having Discount Tuesdays on Xmas Eve or New Year's Eve.  Regal does appear to be having their Value Days as normal though.  No idea about AMC.

 

How that actually affects things though, given folks are used to Discount Tuesday, I really have no idea.  Xmas Eve and New Year's Eve are traditionally dead days and if folks can't get a discount, they might just decide to say screw it and not go at all.

 

Edited December 5, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Not in absolute sense. Just a general rule.

 

If a film is releasing pre-holiday it will have longer legs than while releasing in holiday. Recent example Frozen 2.

 

I wasn't comparing with Jumanji with TRS but with TLJ. TLJ when post its 1st week had still Christmas holidays to spend (15-21), while this time TRS will have Christmas holiday in 1st week itself making it more front-loaded. 

 

I hope it clears, sorry for being vague earlier, that made you write so much.

My point is that films like TROS could be able to maximize their gross by taking advantage of those prime days early in their runs.  It's one of the reasons I think TROS will have a better multi than TLJ. 

 

If we count "legs" as everything after the OW that is.

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	256	14979	53600	38621	27.95%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 244

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

If we count "legs" as everything after the OW that is.

Come to think of it, we might be using different definitions of the word "legs" here.  You seem to be thinking of a film's early and mid run (since you bring up Frozen 2 while I'm just thinking everything after OW.

 

Maybe that's the issue here.

 

Either way, I personally would rather have TROS' slot than The Next Level's.  If only for my own sanity as I deal with forum debates, as I said in a previous post.  

[JB33]

I'm feeling more and more confident in a surprisingly higher OW than most of us thought. What are you thinking right now @Porthos, and everyone else for that matter?

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, JB33 said:

I'm feeling more and more confident in a surprisingly higher OW than most of us thought. What are you thinking right now @Porthos, and everyone else for that matter?

Still thinking around* TLJ in previews right now, though getting more confident that it will hit that range rather than not.  Can't comment on national trends, only Sacto of course.

* NOTE:  When I say 'around' I don't mean exactly 45m but more a range of, oh let's say 42 to 47m.

 

My one worry locally is the lack of sellouts, but I didn't track TLJ's sellouts till very late so I don't know when the sellouts started to happen.

 

Then again, there are far more showings locally for TROS right now than there were for TLJ five days out (TROS T-15: 210 showings | TLJ T-4: 133 showings).  I really have no idea how much those extra showings are stopping sellouts from happening.  As I've said before, the Sacramento region is one of the faster growing in the state, but it isn't growing that quickly.

 

Along those lines, if increased showtimes over TLJ is in fact a national trend, that could depress the internal multi from what might be expected, with all of the showtimes burning off initial demand.

 

Still, I think the OW itself is gonna depend a fair amount on WOM as that can show up pretty darn quickly, especially in this age of social media.

 

So, all of that is to say, as always: Only Sith Deals in Absolute (OW projections )

Edited December 5, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

To add to my last post, there are three new theaters in the region since TLJ bowed (though two other small ones closed).

 

But even if I adjust for that, it's still 178 showings at T-15 for TROS vs 133 showings at T-4 for TLJ.  That's a clear theater-for-theater increase even before we get to whatever bump happens in the last week of pre-sales.

 

Still, the fact that there are gonna be a LOT more seats locally is almost certainly gonna fuck with what little TLJ data I do have, making me pretty much ignore it, except for glancing at it to try to perhaps sniff out some trends at the margins. 

[Andreas]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

  Reveal hidden contents

of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	77.50		15159		11748		30.22m
DP2	144.45		8133		11748		26.87m
Solo	202.94		5789		11748		28.61m
JW:FK	188.63		6228		11748		28.86m
AM&tW	255.11		4605		11748		29.34m
Venom	273.60		4493		12293		27.36m
CM	125.24		10553		13217		25.93m
EG	49.59		26655		13217		29.75m
TLK	120.41		10977		13217		27.69m
It 2	244.69		5659		13847		25.69m
AVG							28.03m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

I really like that you include these. Tomorrow TROS is going above 50% of EG's final tally. Not bad at all imo.

[jedijake]

4 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Not in absolute sense. Just a general rule.

 

If a film is releasing pre-holiday it will have longer legs than while releasing in holiday. Recent example Frozen 2.

 

I wasn't comparing with Jumanji with TRS but with TLJ. TLJ when post its 1st week had still Christmas holidays to spend (15-21), while this time TRS will have Christmas holiday in 1st week itself making it more front-loaded. 

 

I hope it clears, sorry for being vague earlier, that made you write so much.

TLJ had the pre-holiday weekend plus 2 holiday weekends after that. It's first big drop wasn't expected until its 4th weekend. It just so happened that Christmas Eve and NYE were Sundays. It also happened to be that it dropped WAY more than expected in its 2nd weekend.  But that was due to other issues. But TFA had pre-holiday, holiday, holiday and then the drop also in its 4th weekend.

 

TROS has its first two weekends as holidays and that's it. It's big drop will happen in only its 3rd weekend. So TROS has less time before the post-holiday. That's why I don't think that TROS will have any stronger legs than TLJ unless its WOM is insanely good. It will be more frontloaded simply because of the shorter time before the post-holiday drop.

 

If TROS has a much smaller OW (say $200 million or less) the chances of it catching up to TLJ will be small. It will all be about WOM which isn't the subject of this thread.

Edited December 5, 2019 by jedijake

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

On 12/2/2019 at 10:49 AM, Jayhawk said:

TROS 12/2 Update #6 (Last Update 11/25)

Day	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Avg, Ticket Price	Gross	% of Seats Sold	(+) Previous Tickets	(+) Previous Gross
Thursday	1933	2984	$16.69	$33,972.75	64.78%	(+) 88	(+) $1,371.75
Friday	2408	5117	$14.62	$36,256.50	47.06%	(+) 163	(+) $2,489.75
Saturday	2293	5117	$14.62	$33,531.25	44.81%	(+) 195	(+) $2,900.00
Sunday	1281	4895	$14.53	$18,197.25	26.17%	(+) 155	(+) $2,320.00
Total	7915	18113	$15.41	$121,957.75	43.70%	(+) 601	(+) $9,081.50

TROS 12/5 Update #7 (Last Update 12/2)

Day	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Avg, Ticket Price	Gross	% of Seats Sold	(+) Previous Tickets	(+) Previous Gross
Thursday	1965	2984	$16.69	$34,501.00	65.85%	(+) 32	(+) $528.25
Friday	2473	5117	$14.62	$37,260.75	48.33%	(+) 65	(+) $1,004.25
Saturday	2357	5117	$14.62	$34,450.75	46.06%	(+) 64	(+) $919.50
Sunday	1366	4895	$14.53	$19,486.25	27.91%	(+) 85	(+) $1,289.00
Total	8161	18113	$15.40	$125,698.75	45.06%	(+) 246	(+) $3,741.00

 

This is only 3 days worth of sales but wanted to capture 2 weeks out from previews. Solid pace in sales, especially post-preview (Saturday pre-sales should finally overtake Preview sales my next update). 

 

I'll do an update next Monday and Thursday and make sure there are daily updates the week of release.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

TROS 2nd weekend drop is going to be sub 40% for sure. Very good chance it is the 3rd biggest 2nd weekend ever, The massive previews will be the major cause of the drop.

 

Here is the same weekend the last time this calendar configuration rolled around (in 2013):

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2013W52/?ref_=bo_wey_table_1

[RockyMountain]

Well not news regarding TROS but data has come out regarding how popular Mandalorian has become

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/the-mandalorian-disney-plus-is-top-tv-show-in-world-2019-12

 

Think we should probably expect several announcements for new tv shows come celebration time next year.

[filmlover]