The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, cdsacken said:

People called Lion King a failure despite doing 1.6 billion. We live in a weird world.

There is a difference in failure and underperformer.

 

TLK is an underperformer not failure.

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Sorry

No, I posted something in the wrong thread accidentally and then quickly edited it out.   Wasn't keeping track of my tabs. 

 

Just went back and edited the post for a bit more clarity.

Edited December 6, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	0	0	0
Seats Added	8	4	27	5	17
Seats Sold	253	220	260	120	218
12/5/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	237	27,069	41,927	14,858	35.44%

 

We're really cruising now.  The next 2 weeks should be fun.

Any sellouts locally, and if so are you planning on reporting them? 

[filmlover]

The high end of that Little Women tracking a few pages ago would essentially make a $100M+ total a lock since it'll likely have strong staying power until the Oscars in early February, especially considering what a wasteland January looks to be for the most part.

[ZackM]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Any sellouts locally, and if so are you planning on reporting them? 

I will start reporting them tomorrow.  There are 7 so far and 3 more with a single empty seat.

[keysersoze123]

On 12/4/2019 at 8:06 PM, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 Previews (T-15)

MTC1 - overall 5145 shows 318294/858435 4750197.72 +3427
MTC2 - overall 3064 shows 209652/448727 2664796.00 +2331

 

Slightly smaller increase than yesterday but much better than day before that.

 

SW9 (T-14)

MTC1 Prev - overall 5146 shows 322197/858529 4806288.65 +3903
MTC2 Prev -overall 3065 shows 212620/448751 2699156.00 +2968
MTC1 OD - overall 5365 shows 233032/1094013 3638033.12 +18269
MTC2 OD - overall 4443 shows 175584/727391 1976274.00 +15063
MTC1 D2 - overall 5302 shows 192088/1083810 2840215.98 +20407
MTC2 D2 - overall 4452 shows 141592/731850 1532929.00 +16749
MTC1 D3 - overall 5133 shows 105135/1049541 1550468.32+13835
MTC2 D3 - overall 4399 shows 72425/726198 760279.00 +11107

 

I normally post fulll weekend  updates on saturday but did it today as @Jedi Jat is tracking T-14 numbers. Previews are updated daily, OD was updated last on sunday and rest were last updated on saturday.

 

This data is missing lots of sellouts. Empire 25 has 15 sellouts including 12 2D which seem to be bulk booked as its saying not reserved screen when I try to scrap the page. So dont know how many seats that screen has. Unfortunately unlike Fandango, AMC does not mention the Auditorium id. Empire 25 has shows all the way till 530AM !!!!  You can check sellouts at AMC NYC theaters at https://www.amctheatres.com/movie-theatres/new-york-city/amc-empire-25/showtimes/star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-53726/2019-12-19/amc-empire-25/all.

Edited December 6, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Menor the Destroyer]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 (T-14)

MTC1 Prev - overall 5146 shows 322197/858529 4806288.65 +3903
MTC2 Prev -overall 3065 shows 212620/448751 2699156.00 +2968
MTC1 OD - overall 5365 shows 233032/1094013 3638033.12 +18269
MTC2 OD - overall 4443 shows 175584/727391 1976274.00 +15063
MTC1 D2 - overall 5302 shows 192088/1083810 2840215.98 +20407
MTC2 D2 - overall 4452 shows 141592/731850 1532929.00 +16749
MTC1 D3 - overall 5133 shows 105135/1049541 1550468.32+13835
MTC2 D3 - overall 4399 shows 72425/726198 760279.00 +11107

 

I normally post fulll weekend  updates on saturday but did it today as @Jedi Jat is tracking T-14 numbers. Previews are updated daily, OD was updated last on sunday and rest were last updated on saturday.

I guess it should be at ~$18 million for MTC1 roughly (well, depending on the sellouts too, but this is already definitely a higher number). That is 61% of Endgame at the same point. TLJ was at $22.8 million at T-8 and finished at $36 million. TROS shouldn't end up too far from that, though I think it will come in below unless final week comes in huge.

Edited December 6, 2019 by Menor

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

I guess it should be at ~$18 million for MTC1 roughly. That is 61% of Endgame at the same point. TLJ was at $22.8 million at T-8 and finished at $36 million. TROS shouldn't end up too far from that, though I think it will come in below unless final week comes in huge.

I know there's you can't forecast walkups but do you get the feeling personally that walkups could make up for that a bit? I ask because TRoS looks to be more of a crowd pleaser compared to TLJ. If previews end up being lower I wonder if we get a better internal multi....

 

I guess I'm just really really hoping the OW doesnt come in too far below the $220M mark that TLJ hit.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

I know there's you can't forecast walkups but do you get the feeling personally that walkups could make up for that a bit? I ask because TRoS looks to be more of a crowd pleaser compared to TLJ. If previews end up being lower I wonder if we get a better internal multi....

 

I guess I'm just really really hoping the OW doesnt come in too far below the $220M mark that TLJ hit.

I wouldn't worry too much for the OW if it comes in lower. Pre-holiday weekends don't lend themselves to high walkups so I don't think the internal multi will be that high. Once we get the opening 10 days we can really see where it'll land (just like with F2). 

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

I guess it should be at ~$18 million for MTC1 roughly. That is 61% of Endgame at the same point. TLJ was at $22.8 million at T-8 and finished at $36 million. TROS shouldn't end up too far from that, though I think it will come in below unless final week comes in huge.

As I updated in my post above, my data is missing lots of sellouts as scraper does not pull in the data. Even the page I posted above has 44 sellouts. More in many other cities. So actual number will be higher.

 

I hope @Deep Wang will get some data before SW9 release.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

As I updated in my post above, my data is missing lots of sellouts as scraper does not pull in the data. Even the page I posted above has 44 sellouts. More in many other cities. So actual number will be higher.

 

I hope @Deep Wang will get some data before SW9 release.

Yeah I tried to account for those factors (also missing non-reserved theaters) by giving a more generous estimate. But while non-reserved theaters are easy to account for the ratio it's hard to factor in sellouts. So the estimated number could be off but in general I think the main point that it's running behind TLJ, but not by that much, is still true. Agreed that a Wang number will be very helpful.

[JB33]

How comparable are Jumanji and Into the Spider-Verse for presales and tracking? I know one is an animation but we're talking about a more mature, superhero animation. Not exactly Wreck-it-Ralph or Frozen. Would just be interested to compare the two movies if anyone has data for Spider-Verse. It opened on the same weekend last year (December 14-16) so that's another reason I'd like to compare.

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, JB33 said:

I know there's you can't forecast walkups but do you get the feeling personally that walkups could make up for that a bit? I ask because TRoS looks to be more of a crowd pleaser compared to TLJ. If previews end up being lower I wonder if we get a better internal multi....

 

I guess I'm just really really hoping the OW doesnt come in too far below the $220M mark that TLJ hit.

Early sales  should be the highest of the trilogy due to how much online ticket sales have taken off but they are not 

[Eric Atreides]

Jumanji: The Next Level Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	61	139	14,294	0.97%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 482

Total Seats Sold Today: 19

 

Comp

0.885x of Maleficent 7 days before release (2.04M)

0.122x of Frozen II (1.03M)

0.373x of Hobbs & Shaw (2.16M)

 

This was a good day. Not great, but it's still a decent amount of tickets with good-sized increases for all three movies. We'll see if this coming weekend and the last couple of days are any better.

[Eric Atreides]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	167	10,276	31,334	32.80%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 593

Total Seats Sold Today: 186

 

Comp

5.403x of Once Upon’s final count (31.33M)

2.966x of It: Chapter Two (31.15M)

2.093x of Joker (27.83M)

14.743x of Maleficent (33.91M)

11.798x of Terminator (27.72M)

3.057x of Frozen II (25.99M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.902x of Lion King (20.75M)

4.282x of Hobbs & Shaw (24.83M)

 

Well color me surprised. I thought yesterday's 194 was a fluke, and the movie was gonna come back down to Earth. But today was only slightly less than that 194. Of course, with the film so close to release, I guess this was expected, but it's still nice to see these kinds of big numbers, and we'll hopefully see even greater stuff next week and beyond.

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	210	10486	24504	14018	57.21%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	171

 

T-14 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL FOR CM - DON'T USE THERE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	354.13		112	3780		2/85	7080/10860	34.81%		73.30m
EG	73.53		188	18205		12/239	6020/24225	75.15%		44.12m
TROS (adj)	n/a		169	13386		3/210	9870/23256	57.56%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame. 

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Endgame had 24 days of pre-sales.

 

T-14 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	155.09		144	7660		3/118	3635/11295	67.82%		60.49m
Solo	369.06		59	3219		0/87	6129/9348	34.44%		52.03m
TROS (adj)	n/a		132	11880		3/210	7259/19139	62.07%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War and Solo.

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales and Solo 21 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

Spoiler

of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	78.37		15159		11880		30.56m
DP2	146.07		8133		11880		27.17m
Solo	205.22		5789		11880		28.94m
JW:FK	190.75		6228		11880		29.18m
AM&tW	257.98		4605		11880		29.67m
Venom	277.01		4493		12446		27.70m
CM	126.85		10553		13386		26.26m
EG	50.22		26655		13386		30.13m
TLK	121.95		10977		13386		28.05m
It 2	247.71		5659		14018		26.01m
AVG							28.37m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	256	15175	53600	38425	28.31%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 196

[charlie Jatinder]

Thanks @keysersoze123 for the numbers

 

T-14 Days Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Previews: $19mn

Friday: $15.5mn

Saturday: $12mn

Sunday: $6.5mn

 

Total: $53mn

Overall: $61mn Approx

 

The T-14 Days number is roughly 60% of Endgame. I don't have data for TFA and TLJ this far out, but going by its pace, seems like 85% of TLJ at this moment. If I were to give a number, I will say a $37-40mn Thursday previews.

Something like

37-40

49-51 True Friday

53-55 Saturday

44-46 Sunday

 

183-191mn ish

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_tFljn4mLbBwtXn2glN2PMA5XCy2ECBzaqo4QVVFYpM

Edited December 6, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

6 hours ago, JB33 said:

How comparable are Jumanji and Into the Spider-Verse for presales and tracking? I know one is an animation but we're talking about a more mature, superhero animation. Not exactly Wreck-it-Ralph or Frozen. Would just be interested to compare the two movies if anyone has data for Spider-Verse. It opened on the same weekend last year (December 14-16) so that's another reason I'd like to compare.

 

ITSV was quite front-loaded during the OW, which showed it appealed a lot to fanboys, which obviously increased pre-sales numbers. 

[cdsacken]

10 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

There is a difference in failure and underperformer.

 

TLK is an underperformer not failure.

People legit called it a failure. But yes I agree. Had it not been mediocre, it probably does 500 million more worldwide.