The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Jamiem]

Just an update on The Rise of Skywalker from New Zealand. 

 

Is selling very strongly for opening day here, nearly 1000 tickets sold and it’s possible although not likely when I count it for the ten days to release tonight that it is over that number. Compared to other films 12 hours before release(when I last check them usually) it is ahead of everything I’ve tracked but TLK (which is also the first film I tracked) that had 1831 tickets sold, it is roughly double the counts of Joker and It Chapter 2 and triple Hobbs and Shaw and Once Upon a Time and 300 tickets ahead of Frozen II. 

 

I think over the next week and a bit it has a good chance of matching TLK as the biggest preseller I’ve tracked and will certainly hold the record of biggest 3 days before release which at the moment is also TLK at 926 which The Rise of Skywalker has already surpassed. 

 

Will I’ll give my full thoughts later today in the Rise fo Skywalker International thread but just thought I’d post an update here that it isn’t only doing well in the US and Canada, even if I now preface that by saying NZ is itself a Star Wars loving market. 

[keysersoze123]

On 12/6/2019 at 4:44 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Jumanji 2 Previews (T-6)

MTC1 Prev - overall 1559 shows 9932/332415 171958.24 +1402 
MTC2 Prev - overall 2579 shows 5174/422226 65320.00 +490

 

Still the momentum is not there. But I am not expecting much until next week anyway.

Jumanji 2 Previews (T-5)

MTC1 Prev - overall 1568 shows 11419/334260 197108.91 +1487
MTC2 Prev - overall 2675 shows 6370/436429 79809.00  +1196

 

Good increase at least at MTC2. Overall we are in wait mode until wednesday. At this point at least at MTC1 its ahead of Mal 2. I am thinking 3m previews can happen. Let us see how things go.

 

[Welfin]

I feel like this Jumanji film will do quite well. A potential billion dollar contender. 

[ZackM]

Jumanji: The Next Level Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	0	19	0
Seats Added	0	0	0	5,717	-300
Seats Sold	33	17	42	181	18
12/7/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	98	20,453	20,922	469	2.24%

[narniadis]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Jumanji 2 Previews (T-5)

MTC1 Prev - overall 1568 shows 11419/334260 197108.91 +1487
MTC2 Prev - overall 2675 shows 6370/436429 79809.00  +1196

 

Good increase at least at MTC2. Overall we are in wait mode until wednesday. At this point at least at MTC1 its ahead of Mal 2. I am thinking 3m previews can happen. Let us see how things go.

 

Thanks for the update.... really needs 4m+ for 50m / 250m which is my hope.... sigh not usually looking at things from an under performer perspective makes me sad lol. 

[RamblinRed]

11 hours ago, jason1230 said:

nothing for star wars

They made no changes this week to their TROS projections which currently are $200M OW and $680M total run.

 

They did downgrade Cats total run slightly - down 8% to 69M for total run.

[ZackM]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	2	0	0	0
Seats Added	9	175	8	4	27
Seats Sold	163	229	253	220	260
12/7/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	239	26,861	42,111	15,250	36.21%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	8	24	46	72	89

 

 

Surprisingly slow day today after a string of really solid days.

[keysersoze123]

On 12/6/2019 at 7:30 PM, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 Previews (T-13)

MTC1 Prev - overall 5152 shows 325368/859475 4852766.48 +3171
MTC2 Prev - overall 3081 shows 215160/450029 2728602.00 +2540

 

Slightly lower increase than yesterday.

 

 

 

SW9 Previews (T-12)

MTC1 Prev - overall 5152 shows 329083/859475 4906468.95 +3715
MTC2 Prev - overall 3089 shows 218172/450996 2764970.00  +3012

 

Good day. Stronger than yesterday. I am hoping for at least 5K starting monday next.

[Eric Duncan]

Jumanji: The Next Level Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	182	15,850	1.15%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 100

Total Seats Sold Today: 16

 

Comp

1.028x of Maleficent 5 days before release (2.36M)

0.140x of Frozen II (1.19M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.385x of Hobbs & Shaw (2.23M)

 

The H&S comp dropping gives me pause, but it's still doing okay I guess. 3M+ previews still isn't out of the question IMO

[Eric Duncan]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	168	10,521	31,446	33.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 161

 

Comp

5.531x of Once Upon’s final count (32.08M)

3.037x of It: Chapter Two (31.89M)

2.143x of Joker (28.5M)

15.095x of Maleficent (34.72M)

12.079x of Terminator (28.39M)

3.130x of Frozen II (26.61M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.928x of Lion King (21.34M)

4.403x of Hobbs & Shaw (25.54M)

 

And everything's back to normal. Still not sure why yesterday dropped so hard, but whatever.

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	210	10194	24504	14310	58.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

157

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL FOR CM - DON'T USE THERE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	341.39		90	4003		2/87	6927/10930	36.62%		70.67m
EG	73.90		128	18492		11/243	6084/24576	75.24%		44.34m
TROS (adj)	n/a		152	13666		3/210	9590/23256	58.76%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame. 

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Endgame had 24 days of pre-sales.

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	154.82		62	7816		3/118	3479/11295	69.20%		60.38m
Solo	360.58		51	3356		1/87	5992/9348	35.95%		50.84m
TROS (adj)	n/a		107	12101		3/210	7038/19139	63.23%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War and Solo.

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales and Solo 21 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

Spoiler

of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	79.83		15159		12101		31.13m
DP2	148.79		8133		12101		27.67m
Solo	209.03		5789		12101		29.47m
JW:FK	194.30		6228		12101		29.73m
AM&tW	262.78		4605		12101		30.22m
Venom	282.97		4493		12714		28.30m
CM	129.50		10553		13666		26.81m
EG	51.27		26655		13666		30.76m
TLK	124.50		10977		13666		28.63m
It 2	252.87		5659		14310		26.55m
AVG							28.93m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

[keysersoze123]

Nice to see it outselling EG. Needs great momentum over next 12 days to hit 50m previews. I am still hopeful.

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

 

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	79.83		15159		12101		31.13m
DP2	148.79		8133		12101		27.67m
Solo	209.03		5789		12101		29.47m
JW:FK	194.30		6228		12101		29.73m
AM&tW	262.78		4605		12101		30.22m
Venom	282.97		4493		12714		28.30m
CM	129.50		10553		13666		26.81m
EG	51.27		26655		13666		30.76m
TLK	124.50		10977		13666		28.63m
It 2	252.87		5659		14310		26.55m
AVG							28.93m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

Soooo.  I was doing some checking just now, and I noticed that I put in the wrong final total number of tickets for Infinity War here in this final comp box.  Somehow, like a giant idiot, I put in the total number of seats for IW, not the amount sold.  

 

The comp should be much much higher against IW.  The correct Final Sold total was actually 13164 tickets sold locally, which gives a current Final Comp of 35.85m instead of the currently cited 31.13m. 

 

That's completely and utterly unreasonable and it'll throw off all my hard worked comps.  Thus, without any hesitation at all, I'm nuking it from the "Comps so far off of Final Totals of" starting tomorrow.

 

Ironically it doesn't change it all that much.  If I had done that tonight, it would be 28.68m instead of the current 28.93m.

 

I really have no clue why IW is such an outlier compared to literally everything else.  Doing a quick check, not even Joker is quite that bad (currently 34.59).  Maybe it's because of the theater in town that was pretty new at the time and thus not established.  Also kinda makes me want to drop it from the daily comp box as I now think it's really unreliable (it already was on the high side, but now I'm much more worried about it).

 

Probably will think long and hard about removing it from the daily comps, as I had no idea it was that out of step of everything else.  

 

Either way, it's gone from the final comp box tomorrow. So consider this a heads up.

 

(yes, I checked, everything else is good)

Edited December 8, 2019 by Porthos

[cdsacken]

11 hours ago, Welfin said:

I feel like this Jumanji film will do quite well. A potential billion dollar contender. 

I'd say half that. We shall see.

[jedijake]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Nice to see it outselling EG. Needs great momentum over next 12 days to hit 50m previews. I am still hopeful.

How is it looking for $40 million in previews?

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	256	15583	53600	38017	29.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 220

[Boxofficerules]

Now that Jumanji is set to bomb can we discuss Black Christmas bring number 1? $30 million plus? Over or under?

[Eric Duncan]

8 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Now that Jumanji is set to bomb can we discuss Black Christmas bring number 1? $30 million plus? Over or under?

You're really weird.

[Boxofficerules]

6 minutes ago, Eric Plus said:

You're really weird.

This is a box office forum. I’m simple predicting box office

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, Boxofficerules said:

This is a box office forum. I’m simple predicting box office

Theres predicting and then just acting trollish (not calling you a troll mind you.) There isnt historical comps to have BC opening high enough for #1 let alone over 30m. Jumanji presales point to at least 40m unless they die this week in the lead up.