Jump to content
grim22

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

Recommended Posts

Just an update on The Rise of Skywalker from New Zealand. 

 

Is selling very strongly for opening day here, nearly 1000 tickets sold and it’s possible although not likely when I count it for the ten days to release tonight that it is over that number. Compared to other films 12 hours before release(when I last check them usually) it is ahead of everything I’ve tracked but TLK (which is also the first film I tracked) that had 1831 tickets sold, it is roughly double the counts of Joker and It Chapter 2 and triple Hobbs and Shaw and Once Upon a Time and 300 tickets ahead of Frozen II. 

 

I think over the next week and a bit it has a good chance of matching TLK as the biggest preseller I’ve tracked and will certainly hold the record of biggest 3 days before release which at the moment is also TLK at 926 which The Rise of Skywalker has already surpassed. 

 

Will I’ll give my full thoughts later today in the Rise fo Skywalker International thread but just thought I’d post an update here that it isn’t only doing well in the US and Canada, even if I now preface that by saying NZ is itself a Star Wars loving market. 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/6/2019 at 4:44 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Jumanji 2 Previews (T-6)

MTC1 Prev - overall 1559 shows 9932/332415 171958.24 +1402 
MTC2 Prev - overall 2579 shows 5174/422226 65320.00 +490

 

Still the momentum is not there. But I am not expecting much until next week anyway.

Jumanji 2 Previews (T-5)

MTC1 Prev - overall 1568 shows 11419/334260 197108.91 +1487
MTC2 Prev - overall 2675 shows 6370/436429 79809.00  +1196

 

Good increase at least at MTC2. Overall we are in wait mode until wednesday. At this point at least at MTC1 its ahead of Mal 2. I am thinking 3m previews can happen. Let us see how things go.

 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Jumanji: The Next Level
Various theater chains (Michigan)
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 0 0 0 19 0
Seats Added 0 0 0 5,717 -300
Seats Sold 33 17 42 181 18
           
12/7/2019 Showings Seats Left Total Seats Seats Sold Pct. Sold
Total 98 20,453 20,922 469 2.24%
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Jumanji 2 Previews (T-5)

MTC1 Prev - overall 1568 shows 11419/334260 197108.91 +1487
MTC2 Prev - overall 2675 shows 6370/436429 79809.00  +1196

 

Good increase at least at MTC2. Overall we are in wait mode until wednesday. At this point at least at MTC1 its ahead of Mal 2. I am thinking 3m previews can happen. Let us see how things go.

 

Thanks for the update.... really needs 4m+ for 50m / 250m which is my hope.... sigh not usually looking at things from an under performer perspective makes me sad lol. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, jason1230 said:

nothing for star wars:mellow:

They made no changes this week to their TROS projections which currently are $200M OW and $680M total run.

 

They did downgrade Cats total run slightly - down 8% to 69M for total run.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Various theater chains (Michigan)
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 0 2 0 0 0
Seats Added 9 175 8 4 27
Seats Sold 163 229 253 220 260
           
12/7/2019 Showings Seats Left Total Seats Seats Sold Pct. Sold
Total 239 26,861 42,111 15,250 36.21%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 8 24 46 72 89

 

 

Surprisingly slow day today after a string of really solid days.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/6/2019 at 7:30 PM, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 Previews (T-13)

MTC1 Prev - overall 5152 shows 325368/859475 4852766.48 +3171
MTC2 Prev - overall 3081 shows 215160/450029 2728602.00 +2540

 

Slightly lower increase than yesterday.

 

 

 

SW9 Previews (T-12)

MTC1 Prev - overall 5152 shows 329083/859475 4906468.95 +3715
MTC2 Prev - overall 3089 shows 218172/450996 2764970.00  +3012

 

Good day. Stronger than yesterday. I am hoping for at least 5K starting monday next.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Jumanji: The Next Level Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 68 182 15,850 1.15%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 100

Total Seats Sold Today: 16

 

Comp

1.028x of Maleficent 5 days before release (2.36M)

0.140x of Frozen II (1.19M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.385x of Hobbs & Shaw (2.23M)

 

The H&S comp dropping gives me pause, but it's still doing okay I guess. 3M+ previews still isn't out of the question IMO

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 2 168 10,521 31,446 33.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 161

 

Comp

5.531x of Once Upon’s final count (32.08M)

3.037x of It: Chapter Two (31.89M)

2.143x of Joker (28.5M)

15.095x of Maleficent (34.72M)

12.079x of Terminator (28.39M)

3.130x of Frozen II (26.61M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.928x of Lion King (21.34M)

4.403x of Hobbs & Shaw (25.54M)

 

And everything's back to normal. Still not sure why yesterday dropped so hard, but whatever.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

3

210

10194

24504

14310

58.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

157

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL FOR CM - DON'T USE THERE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

 

   %

 

Sold T-12

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

CM

341.39

 

90

4003

 

2/87

6927/10930

36.62%

 

70.67m

EG

73.90

 

128

18492

 

11/243

6084/24576

75.24%

 

44.34m

TROS (adj)

n/a

 

152

13666

 

3/210

9590/23256

58.76%

 

n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Endgame had 24 days of pre-sales.

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

 

   %

 

Sold T-12

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

IW

154.82

 

62

7816

 

3/118

3479/11295

69.20%

 

60.38m

Solo

360.58

 

51

3356

 

1/87

5992/9348

35.95%

 

50.84m

TROS (adj)

n/a

 

107

12101

 

3/210

7038/19139

63.23%

 

n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War and Solo.

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales and Solo 21 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

Spoiler

of:

 

   %

 

Final Sold

 

TROS Sold

 

Comp

IW

79.83

 

15159

 

12101

 

31.13m

DP2

148.79

 

8133

 

12101

 

27.67m

Solo

209.03

 

5789

 

12101

 

29.47m

JW:FK

194.30

 

6228

 

12101

 

29.73m

AM&tW

262.78

 

4605

 

12101

 

30.22m

Venom

282.97

 

4493

 

12714

 

28.30m

CM

129.50

 

10553

 

13666

 

26.81m

EG

51.27

 

26655

 

13666

 

30.76m

TLK

124.50

 

10977

 

13666

 

28.63m

It 2

252.87

 

5659

 

14310

 

26.55m

AVG

 

 

 

 

 

 

28.93m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

 

 

   %

 

Final Sold

 

TROS Sold

 

Comp

IW

79.83

 

15159

 

12101

 

31.13m

DP2

148.79

 

8133

 

12101

 

27.67m

Solo

209.03

 

5789

 

12101

 

29.47m

JW:FK

194.30

 

6228

 

12101

 

29.73m

AM&tW

262.78

 

4605

 

12101

 

30.22m

Venom

282.97

 

4493

 

12714

 

28.30m

CM

129.50

 

10553

 

13666

 

26.81m

EG

51.27

 

26655

 

13666

 

30.76m

TLK

124.50

 

10977

 

13666

 

28.63m

It 2

252.87

 

5659

 

14310

 

26.55m

AVG

 

 

 

 

 

 

28.93m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

Soooo.  I was doing some checking just now, and I noticed that I put in the wrong final total number of tickets for Infinity War here in this final comp box.  Somehow, like a giant idiot, I put in the total number of seats for IW, not the amount sold. :slaphead: 

 

The comp should be much much higher against IW.  The correct Final Sold total was actually 13164 tickets sold locally, which gives a current Final Comp of 35.85m instead of the currently cited 31.13m

 

That's completely and utterly unreasonable and it'll throw off all my hard worked comps.  Thus, without any hesitation at all, I'm nuking it from the "Comps so far off of Final Totals of" starting tomorrow.

 

Ironically it doesn't change it all that much.  If I had done that tonight, it would be 28.68m instead of the current 28.93m.

 

I really have no clue why IW is such an outlier compared to literally everything else.  Doing a quick check, not even Joker is quite that bad (currently 34.59).  Maybe it's because of the theater in town that was pretty new at the time and thus not established.  Also kinda makes me want to drop it from the daily comp box as I now think it's really unreliable (it already was on the high side, but now I'm much more worried about it).

 

Probably will think long and hard about removing it from the daily comps, as I had no idea it was that out of step of everything else.  

 

Either way, it's gone from the final comp box tomorrow. So consider this a heads up.

 

(yes, I checked, everything else is good)

Edited by Porthos
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Boxofficerules said:

This is a box office forum. I’m simple predicting box office

Theres predicting and then just acting trollish (not calling you a troll mind you.) There isnt historical comps to have BC opening high enough for #1 let alone over 30m. Jumanji presales point to at least 40m unless they die this week in the lead up. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.





×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.