The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[pepsa]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

we are in the final turn. That pace will also go up big time. There is more room to grow.

 

Anyway Its just relative number. I am only looking at 50m previews. So its not about beating Endgame but getting closer.

I don't get this tbh, it has to beat TLJ first. We know that EG and IW are bad comps because even thought marvel got more ps heavy over time it's now where near the lv of starwars so even if a SW would match EG in ps over the weekend it would still finish 50m-80m below on OW.

 

If it does 50m that would be insanely good for TROS. Honestly everything over $45m is a big win for this movie.

If it comes in at 40m it's still fine legs will most likely be better than TLJ.

 

I just don't want everyone to get super high hopes because of presales because we know historicaly SW is super super super ps heavy.

[LegionofDoom]

Weekend multiplier:

TFA:4.35

TLJ: 4.88

 

Avengers Endgame (most hyped MCU movie) :5.95

 

I don't think comparison with marvel is good. 

[MrGlass2]

Maybe T-11 is a good time to start the usual comparisons instead of using Final numbers?

Thank you all for your service.

[Inceptionzq]

11 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Maybe T-11 is a good time to start the usual comparisons instead of using Final numbers?

Thank you all for your service.

TRoS is by far the biggest and most PS heavy movie I’ve done, so I’ll have to do final numbers the whole time. Using TLK comp right now would give a number well over 100M

[MrGlass2]

5 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

TRoS is by far the biggest and most PS heavy movie I’ve done, so I’ll have to do final numbers the whole time. Using TLK comp right now would give a number well over 100M

Right, but it is not going to be $30M (or whatever final numbers indicate) either.

Do you know what kind of multiplier we can expect from today's PS to the previews?

[Inceptionzq]

14 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Right, but it is not going to be $30M (or whatever final numbers indicate) either.

The final number comps aren’t like the normal comps. It’s not tracking for a 30M finish. That’s how much the comp suggests TRoS previews would make if it released today or sold zero tickets between now and release.

14 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Do you know what kind of multiplier we can expect from today's PS to the previews?

No clue, but I’m hoping for at least 1.5x based on my comps.

[a2k]

3 hours ago, LegionofDoom said:

Weekend multiplier:

TFA:4.35

TLJ: 4.88

 

Avengers Endgame (most hyped MCU movie) :5.95

 

I don't think comparison with marvel is good. 

EG is the only MCU movie to miss 6x. Off the top off my head I don't remember any under 6.5x either and AIW could be the only one under 7x.

 

EDIT: Menor rightly points out AM2 also did under 7x.

Edited December 9, 2019 by a2k

[Lordmandeep]

MCU and SW are not comprable.

 

 

EG got about the same preview number as SW7 yet opened over 108 million higher. 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

On 12/5/2019 at 8:59 AM, Jayhawk said:

TROS 12/5 Update #7 (Last Update 12/2)

Day	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Avg, Ticket Price	Gross	% of Seats Sold	(+) Previous Tickets	(+) Previous Gross
Thursday	1965	2984	$16.69	$34,501.00	65.85%	(+) 32	(+) $528.25
Friday	2473	5117	$14.62	$37,260.75	48.33%	(+) 65	(+) $1,004.25
Saturday	2357	5117	$14.62	$34,450.75	46.06%	(+) 64	(+) $919.50
Sunday	1366	4895	$14.53	$19,486.25	27.91%	(+) 85	(+) $1,289.00
Total	8161	18113	$15.40	$125,698.75	45.06%	(+) 246	(+) $3,741.00

 

This is only 3 days worth of sales but wanted to capture 2 weeks out from previews. Solid pace in sales, especially post-preview (Saturday pre-sales should finally overtake Preview sales my next update). 

 

I'll do an update next Monday and Thursday and make sure there are daily updates the week of release.

TROS 12/9 Update #8 (Last Update 12/5)

Day	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Avg, Ticket Price	Gross	% of Seats Sold	(+) Previous Tickets	(+) Previous Gross
Thursday	1996	2984	$16.69	$35,042.50	66.89%	(+) 31	(+) $541.50
Friday	2580	5117	$14.62	$38,822.50	50.42%	(+) 107	(+) $1,561.75
Saturday	2449	5117	$14.62	$35,798.25	47.86%	(+) 92	(+) $1,347.50
Sunday	1544	4895	$14.53	$22,040.00	31.54%	(+) 178	(+) $2,553.75
Total	8569	18113	$15.37	$131,703.25	47.31%	(+) 408	(+) $6,004.50

 

Amazing increase for the Sunday of OW. The pace of preview sales actually dropped this past week, but the post preview numbers continue to impress.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, a2k said:

EG is the only MCU movie to miss 6x. Off the top off my head I don't remember any under 6.5x either and AIW could be the only one under 7x.

Ant Man and Wasp was below 7x

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, pepsa said:

I don't get this tbh, it has to beat TLJ first. We know that EG and IW are bad comps because even thought marvel got more ps heavy over time it's now where near the lv of starwars so even if a SW would match EG in ps over the weekend it would still finish 50m-80m below on OW.

 

If it does 50m that would be insanely good for TROS. Honestly everything over $45m is a big win for this movie.

If it comes in at 40m it's still fine legs will most likely be better than TLJ.

 

I just don't want everyone to get super high hopes because of presales because we know historicaly SW is super super super ps heavy.

I dont have apples to apples data for TLJ. Porthos started tracking after TLJ. So i was comparing it with only movie that makes sense.

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	256	15867	53600	37733	29.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 284

 

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
Joker	188.42		8421		15867		25.06m
Frozen 2	245.62		6460		15867		20.88m

[Tinalera]

Star wars the return of skywalker thurs dec 20 (taken mon dec 9)
Toronto ontario

 

Yonge Dundas

VIP
630 75/76
700 74/76
1015 76/76
1045 74/76

 

IMAX

700 313/356
1045 244/356

4DX
700 80/76 (non wheelchair sellout)
1000 76/76

 

Scotia place
Avx
700 419/448(near so)
1040 302/448

IMAX
730 394/416
1030. 353/416

Reg 3d
600 96/235
630 272/556
940 61/185
101 27/556

Non
600 303/388
910 131/192
940 218/388

Yonge eglington
VIP
600 /88 (non wheel sellout
900 91/95(near sellout)

945 87/88 (non wheel sellout)
1045.90/95

AVX
640 270/349
1015 163/349

Reg
600 107/328
730 239/328
930 38/328
1100 16/328

Eglington town
Avx
700 199/383
1045 63/383

IMAX
60 238/335
1000 188/335

Reg
630 34/260
645 36/108
730 97/211
945 10/108
110 5/260
1145 2/260

 

Don Mills
VIP
600 108/115
700 106/115
945 101/115
1045 92/115

 

Yorkdale
Avx
700 198/395

800 211/349
1040 35/349
1140 68/395

Reg 
600 118/350
940 79/350

 

Queensway
Vip
600 119/124
700 127/136
945 124/124
1045 116/135

Avx
700 318/377
730 308/426
1045 235/377
1145 54/421

600 88/211
630 63/279
945 49/211
1015 6/279

 

9067/14967 sold. 60 percent

 

It continues to build nicely. I think

It will get close to open thurs before sellout but its trending very nicely now. 

 

Edited December 9, 2019 by Tinalera

[John2015]

21 hours ago, narniadis said:

Theres predicting and then just acting trollish (not calling you a troll mind you.) There isnt historical comps to have BC opening high enough for #1 let alone over 30m. Jumanji presales point to at least 40m unless they die this week in the lead up. 

It is possible that the Jumanji might underperform.      Jumanji has just flopped in China.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-box-office-jumanji-2-has-soft-25-million-opening-1260815

Edited December 9, 2019 by John2015

[pepsa]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont have apples to apples data for TLJ. Porthos started tracking after TLJ. So i was comparing it with only movie that makes sense.

I know that and it wasn't ment as an attack by me. You can only use the comps you have

I just wanted to warn that PS don't scale the same for all movies. Specialy because ps increas every year and Jatt is saying that it's not going to hit TLJ (or barely) so expecting over $45m might be a bit to high.

 

Who knows, anyway you and all the people tracking the movie here are doing an awesome job, the forum woudn't be the same with out this!

[jedijake]

IW and EG had the "everyone else is seeing it so I guess I should too" thing going for it for previews and OW. The more people who got tickets, the more pressure there was on others. 

 

TROS may not have that. Instead, it may have the "is it good?" thing going for it leading to better holds.

Edited December 9, 2019 by jedijake

[narniadis]

20 minutes ago, John2015 said:

It is possible that the Jumanji might underperform.      Jumanji has just flopped in China.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-box-office-jumanji-2-has-soft-25-million-opening-1260815

Yes, I have been in the Jumanji will under perform camp for awhile. But there is ignoring actual data coupled with unrealistic expectations for a horror film which is what that particular poster was doing. 

[TalismanRing]

46 minutes ago, jedijake said:

IW and EG had the "everyone else is seeing it so I guess I should too" thing going for it for previews and OW. The more people who got tickets, the more pressure there was on others. 

 

TROS may not have that. Instead, it may have the "is it good?" thing going for it leading to better holds.

Christmas and NYs will give it better holds - after the OW.  Internally OW it will be very front loaded like all other recent SW opening in December - well under AEG or AIW.

 

 

[Lordmandeep]

20 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Christmas and NYs will give it better holds - after the OW.  Internally OW it will be very front loaded like all other recent SW opening in December - well under AEG or AIW.

 

 

 I think most are seeing an opening under TLJ but better holds then that film. 

[Porthos]

8 hours ago, StarWarsMemer said:

IW has a higher percentage of seats sold than TRoS in Sacramento, yet TRoS is 50%+ bigger in amount of tickets sold 

Having nearly 100 more showtimes right now would do that, yes.   

 

FWIW, IW is about to rocket up in show count and will finish at 182 showings at final bell.  There is that new theater helping TROS but even there, I expect expansion in show times in the coming week.

 

===

 

One major factor on TROS to IW is that Disney in its infinite wisdom didn't play IW at a couple of theaters in the local region.  In my mind this normally doesn't matter as folks will just go to the other nearby theater (the competing theaters in question are literally within a few of miles of each other).  But in cases of super extra saturation, it might matter when we're getting to 70% of seats sold.

 

The thing is though, I tend to think this is replicated nationwide in medium and larger cities which is why I never adjust for it.  Though it's a contributing reason for why I removed it from the final count comp and am still debating on whether or not to remove it from the daily comp box.

 

For the record, EG DID play in every last theater in the region (except for the art/indie joints).  Seems Disney learned its lesson there.

 

But, sure, IW is becoming worse and worse of a comp and now that Sunday is in the rear view mirror I might just nuke it entirely. 

 

(films like DP2, JW2 and most of the others played in every theater locally and it really didn't matter for poor ol' Solo)

Edited December 9, 2019 by Porthos