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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Various theater chains (Michigan)
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 10 0 0 2 0
Seats Added 663 22 9 175 8
Seats Sold 236 249 163 229 253
           
12/9/2019 Showings Seats Left Total Seats Seats Sold Pct. Sold
Total 249 27,061 42,796 15,735 36.77%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 11 26 49 71 91

 

 

I'm expecting a huge day tomorrow.  Tuesdays have been really good while I've been tracking and a bunch of showings were added today.  Fingers crossed.

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6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The rest of the weekend

SW9

MTC1 D2 - overall 5307 shows 212283/1084629 3121576.96 +20195
MTC2 D2 - overall 4510 shows 160489/740203 1734639.00 +18897
MTC1 D3 -  overall 5139 shows 120312/1050308 1764004.96 +15177
MTC2 D3 - overall 4449 shows 86498/732783 903016.00 +14358

 

Under 4 days of PS since my update on thursday evening. Really good and Day 2 PS run rate is ahead of Day 1 PS at this point. Day 3 PS is also getting stronger now.

SW9 Previews (T-10)

MTC1 Prev - overall 5162 shows 338466/860664 5040542.16 +4407
MTC2 Prev - overall 3100 shows 224238/452202 2836019.00 +2748

 

This is for 22 hours since my last update and so pace is almost on par as yesterday but it did not go further up as I was hoping.

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Black Christmas Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 16 31 2,744 1.13%

 

Comp

0.470x of Crawl 3 days before release (470K)

0.252x of Scary Stories (587K)

0.689x of 47 Meters (355K)

0.108x of Zombieland 2 (307K)

0.313x of Doctor Sleep (470K)

 

Yeah this is okay. We'll see what the numbers are like later on, but it would indicate at least an opening in the double digits this far out.

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Jumanji: The Next Level Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 68 233 15,850 1.47%


Total Seats Sold Today: 32

 

Comp

1.064x of Maleficent 3 days before release (2.45M)

0.135x of Frozen II (1.14M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.315x of Hobbs & Shaw (1.83M)

 

Yeah, this was not a good day. Pretty much stalled from yesterday and all that. It is interesting to see it pretty much follow Maleficent to a tee the past couple days. I guess a gun to my head, something like 2.4M previews sounds about right, but with a lower IM to account for the earlier preview shows.

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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 Previews (T-10)

MTC1 Prev - overall 5162 shows 338466/860664 5040542.16 +4407
MTC2 Prev - overall 3100 shows 224238/452202 2836019.00 +2748

 

This is for 22 hours since my last update and so pace is almost on par as yesterday but it did not go further up as I was hoping.

SW9 D1.

MTC1 OD - overall 5378 shows 256905/1096527 3978179.57  +7535
MTC2 OD - overall 4493 shows 197085/734806 2200573.00 +9399

 

Very strong day for Day 1. MTC2 is almost 3.5x Preview sales !!!. at MTC2 the OD PS should overtake Previews PS by release date and that is impressive for a PS heavy movie like SW9.
 

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6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 D1.

MTC1 OD - overall 5378 shows 256905/1096527 3978179.57  +7535
MTC2 OD - overall 4493 shows 197085/734806 2200573.00 +9399

 

Very strong day for Day 1. MTC2 is almost 3.5x Preview sales !!!. at MTC2 the OD PS should overtake Previews PS by release date and that is impressive for a PS heavy movie like SW9.
 

It's definitely not a bad sign but expected imo. For example Endgame at this point had way higher OD sales than preview sales at MTC2. TROS will likely have a lower internal multi, so OD will overtake previews later. 

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Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 2 168 10,845 31,446 34.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 196

 

T-10 Comp

12.494x of It: Chapter Two 10 days before release (131.19M)

11.788x of Frozen II 10 days before release (100.2M)

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp

3.596x of Lion King 10 days before release (82.71M)

 

Final Count Comp

5.702x of Once Upon’s final count (33.07M)

3.131x of It: Chapter Two (32.87M)

2.209x of Joker (29.38M)

15.559x of Maleficent (35.79M)

12.451x of Terminator (29.26M)

3.227x of Frozen II (27.43M)

 

Final Count Adjusted Comp

0.962x of Lion King (22.13M)

4.565x of Hobbs & Shaw (26.48M)

 

@MrGlass2 said he wanted some T-X comps, and...yeah, fair enough. We're getting close to release. Of course, it's important to recognize that films like Frozen and even Lion King were at a much lower ticket count, so their gains are much larger and will lead to big drops in comps. So if, say Frozen goes from 100M to 95M tomorrow, it isn't because TROS is flopping. It's just that Frozen's gains are more substantial than TROS', because Frozen has fewer tickets to work with.

 

Oh yeah, and as for today...yeah it's good. Definitely wish it could have gotten to 200, but I guess barely missing it is better than nothing.

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The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

5

210

9798

24504

14706

60.01%

SELLOUT NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and/or wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

 

Total Sellouts Added Today

1

Total Seats Sold Today

198

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL FOR CM - DON'T USE THERE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

 

   %

 

Sold T-10

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

CM

333.40

 

128

4213

 

2/94

7555/11768

35.80%

 

69.01m

EG

74.94

 

141

18742

 

14/243

5843/24576

76.26%

 

44.97m

TROS (adj)

n/a

 

191

14046

 

5/210

9210/23256

60.40%

 

n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Endgame had 24 days of pre-sales.

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp #2

 

   %

 

Sold T-10

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

Solo

359.66

 

47

3451

 

1/88

5935/9386

36.77%

 

50.71m

TROS (adj)

n/a

 

163

12412

 

5/210

6727/19139

64.85%

 

n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Solo.

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales and Solo 21 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

Spoiler

of:

 

   %

 

Final Sold

 

TROS Sold

 

Comp

DP2

150.61

 

8133

 

12412

 

28.39m

Solo

211.59

 

5789

 

12412

 

30.23m

JW:FK

196.68

 

6228

 

12412

 

30.49m

AM&tW

265.99

 

4605

 

12412

 

31.00m

Venom

286.82

 

4493

 

13065

 

29.08m

CM

131.29

 

10553

 

14046

 

27.55m

EG

51.98

 

26655

 

14046

 

31.62m

TLK

126.22

 

10977

 

14046

 

29.43m

It 2

256.37

 

5659

 

14706

 

27.29m

AVG

 

 

 

 

 

 

29.45m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

===

 

No, I didn't forget to change the sellout/seat numbers.  Exact same increase in sellouts and seats sold as yesterday. :) 

 

Did end up removing IW as a day-to-day comp.  Maybe I'll bring it back, but probably not.  Think I'll keep CM though as it's a useful comp for over-performance in this market.  At least at final bell.

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10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

CM

131.29

 

10553

 

14046

 

27.55m

CM added 6300 seats in final 10 days. The current rate is 1.5x CM but its reducing fast obviously. I expect TROS will sold another 7.5-8k seats perhaps for 22.5k final against 10.5k of CM and 26.7k of EG, giving it range of 42-50mn from these two comps 😛 The adjusted comp in same theatres will be a bit down at $41-49mn. Mean of that being $45mn.

 

Adj Solo comp will be $46mn Approx.

 

Let's see if final result are in that direction.

 

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So T-10 Days.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_tFljn4mLbBwtXn2glN2PMA5XCy2ECBzaqo4QVVFYpM/edit#gid=0

Film added roughly $6.5mn in last 4 days, which is nice. Pre-sales are $68mn Approx and if pace is to go by shall be around $72-73mn T-7 Days, which is the first comp we have for Star Wars films.

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1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

So T-10 Days.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_tFljn4mLbBwtXn2glN2PMA5XCy2ECBzaqo4QVVFYpM/edit#gid=0

Film added roughly $6.5mn in last 4 days, which is nice. Pre-sales are $68mn Approx and if pace is to go by shall be around $72-73mn T-7 Days, which is the first comp we have for Star Wars films.

What were EG numbers at the same time?

Edited by Moses

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1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

No information. Will be around $108-109mn.

So can we expect a 200 millions opening?

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Dont see any signs to it really out opening TLJ unless it is far more backloaded. 

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11 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Dont see any signs to it really out opening TLJ unless it is far more backloaded. 

Sunday should be better percentage wise as all schools are gonna be out on Monday the 23rd. Small difference at the least

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3 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

$190mn.

If reviews are good I think it very likely could be a 200m+ opener. If it looks to be borderline without reviews positive reviews will definitely help it get even higher.

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The Sunday hold will be interesting. Two Towers (2002) and Hobbit: DOS (2013) both had sub-20% drops on that Sunday (December 22) and had already been out for more than a weekend.

 

Likewise, the second weekend for TROS will be equally interesting. Both of those movies had very small drops. 

 

If WOM is decent, the drops SHOULD be very very small for a week at least (except Christmas Eve, BUT TFA only dropped 29% for Christmas eve).

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