The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[JB33]

3 minutes ago, Eric loves Rey said:

To be fair, summer has a lot more drive-ins available

Right, I always forget about that.

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, JB33 said:

That's.....a surprisingly low theatre count. Guess that's how it is this time of year, every movie gets a somewhat depressed theatre count compared to other times of the year when there isn't as much competition (like TLK getting 4,800 something theatres in July this year!).

Not counting Solo due to it being a May release:

 

TFA Initial Count vs Final:  3,900 vs 4,134 (+234)

R1 Initial Count vs Final:    4,000 vs 4,157 (+157)

TLJ Initial Count vs Final:   4,100 vs 4,232 (+132)

 

So this will be the highest theater count for a Dec SW film and will probably go up about 125 to 200 theaters or so.

 

EDIT:::  I see @Arendelle Legion beat me with the final counts, but I also wanted to show the increase from estimate to actual for other Dec SW films.

 

...

 

Might also be that I'm a teeny tiny bit annoyed that we seem to have this discussion every... single... time and I'm a little over it.  

 

Edited December 12, 2019 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

11AM at just MTC1 Jumanji has sold another 8500 tickets for previews. its at 36616/407256 and could cross 60K+. MTC2 is at  23922/467257 and should cross 40K.  With great Walk-ins even 5m previews can happen. Let us see how things are this evening.

[JB33]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

11AM at just MTC1 Jumanji has sold another 8500 tickets for previews. its at 36616/407256 and could cross 60K+. MTC2 is at  23922/467257 and should cross 40K.  With great Walk-ins even 5m previews can happen. Let us see how things are this evening.

Good news! $5M previews could lead to a $60M OW, which was more along the lines of what I was always anticipating for a sequel to a huge crowd pleaser.

[jedijake]

@PorthosI really cannot imagine TROS opening in less theaters than EG opened with.

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, jedijake said:

@PorthosI really cannot imagine TROS opening in less theaters than EG opened with.

Uhhhhh, what???? It’s been obvious for years that it would open with several hundreds less. That’s the nature of the calendar.

[narniadis]

46 minutes ago, jedijake said:

@PorthosI really cannot imagine TROS opening in less theaters than EG opened with.

There are legitimate reasons to not open that high - lack of competition allowed EG to set a new record. Its just not the same circumstances. 

🤦‍♂️

Edited December 12, 2019 by narniadis

[a2k]

Love Jum3 picking up steam. With 13-14x multi it will need 3.6-3.85 previews to get 50 ow. If 4m previews are looking likely then that's great news when it comes to chances of 240-250 dom.

 

4 * 13x = 52 ow

52 * 4.5-5x = 234-260 dom

[narniadis]

3 minutes ago, a2k said:

Love Jum3 picking up steam. With 13-14x multi it will need 3.6-3.85 previews to get 50 ow. If 4m previews are looking likely then that's great news when it comes to chances of 240-250 dom.

 

4 * 13x = 52 ow

52 * 4.5-5x = 234-260 dom

Yup yup.... sticking to my 50/250 path but would absolutely love to see it go higher. 

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local 

 

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Preview Start
Jumanji 2	72/1864	(4pm)	120/3381	(5:30pm)	141/3381	(5:30pm)	178/3381	(4pm)		4:00 PM
Black Christmas	22/512	(4pm)	24/512	(5:30pm)	24/512	(5:30pm)	24/512	(4pm)		7:00 PM

 

COMP THUR:

 

TLK:  $7.35m

Joker:  $3.115m

Frozen 2: $4.97m

Godzilla 2:  $5.497m

Mal 2: $4.265m

Zombieland 2: $5.34m

 

TLK and Joker are the outliers in terms of walk ups

 

Others range in genre but are all sequels. None are ideal comps but from this theatre it looks like $4.3m - 5m+ in previews

 

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, a2k said:

Love Jum3 picking up steam. With 13-14x multi it will need 3.6-3.85 previews to get 50 ow. If 4m previews are looking likely then that's great news when it comes to chances of 240-250 dom.

 

4 * 13x = 52 ow

52 * 4.5-5x = 234-260 dom

With a 4pm start the multi will probably be lower than 13x.  Might be closer to 10x

[pepsa]

43 minutes ago, narniadis said:

There are legitimate reasons to not open that high - lack of competition allowed EG to set a new record. Its just not the same circumstances. 

🤦‍♂️

Tbh more theaters don't mater that much once you are over 4k. Despicable me had a lot theaters but didn't open over TS3 etc so I don't think it mathers that much. And the demand for TROS isn't as high as for EG so no need to go crazy with it.

[Menor the Destroyer]

45 minutes ago, narniadis said:

There are legitimate reasons to not open that high - lack of competition allowed EG to set a new record. Its just not the same circumstances. 

🤦‍♂️

More to do with the season (December is worse than April for theater counts) and also EG had unprecedented demand allowing it to get an insanely wide release for that time of year. 

[TwoMisfits]

I'm feeling like Jumanji will hit $300M+ DOM over the holiday season...for no other reason other than reading the Star Wars thread on BOT.  I can't imagine families at the Xmas table all wanting to recreate that drama with a group viewing, so I see Jumanji/Spies/Cats taking what would have often been multi-viewings of families at Star Wars (ala, mom and dad saw it...now we'll bring the kids...oh, grandma and the aunts and uncles want to go, we'll see it a 3rd time no problem, etc)...

 

I do think Jumanji also gets the big benefit of the last ticket sale and being the closest release to it:)...seems presales since Wed have skyrocketed, and I gotta think that was a large reason:)...

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1859

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1877

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
10044	216	23331	43.05%	9	191

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 24.38M

Final Maleficent count comp: 28.48M

Final IT 2 count comp: 27.16M

Final Hobbs count comp: 28.39M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 29.15M

Final Lion King count comp: 30.45M

 

Average: 28M

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1884

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1900

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
10239	195	23331	43.89%	9	191

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 24.85M

Final Maleficent count comp: 29.04M

Final IT 2 count comp: 27.69M

Final Hobbs count comp: 28.94M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 29.73M

Final Lion King count comp: 31.04M

 

Average: 28.55M

[Eric Atreides]

Jumanji: The Next Level Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	95	901	20,097	4.48%

 

Comp

1.285x of Good Boys (2.7M)

1.293x of Maleficent (2.97M)

0.268x of Frozen II (2.27M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.433x of Hobbs & Shaw (2.51M)

 

Everything hear indicates previews in the 2s, so...guess that's what I'm going with?

[narniadis]

50 minutes ago, Menor said:

More to do with the season (December is worse than April for theater counts) and also EG had unprecedented demand allowing it to get an insanely wide release for that time of year. 

Yup, hence my comment about different circumstances. Theater counts just arent as a big a deal over the 3500 mark. Screen count is much more important but we dont usually know those in advance of couse.

[jedijake]

I'd think that competition would affect screen count much more than theater count. Every theater would want to get their hands on TROS just like they did for EG and TLK. But competition may keep their showings limited.

 

Well, in any case, it will be very interesting to see if the latest clip/spot causes a spike in ticket sales because there's a lot of buzz around it.

[Legion Again]

So from what I’m hearing, 2-5. I guess that’s pretty believable: 😂

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I'd think that competition would affect screen count much more than theater count. Every theater would want to get their hands on TROS just like they did for EG and TLK. But competition may keep their showings limited.

 

Well, in any case, it will be very interesting to see if the latest clip/spot causes a spike in ticket sales because there's a lot of buzz around it.

Setting aside the issue of drive-ins, if they have the screens, sure.  But for all of the mega- and multiplexes out there, there are still a ton of four, five, and six screen theaters out there.  Hell, in the greater Sacto area there's at least three of them (two others in that range closed this year).  Once I get out into the boonies like Auburn and beyond, six theater screens are the luxury while four and five is more the norm.

 

Disney might have goosed it a bit for EG, but TLK was more a case of near-total bombage this summer and theaters being desperate for anything that might bring in the crowds.

 

But at the holidays, there are a ton of films debuting around this time, not to mention hold-overs.

 

And that's not even getting into Lucasfilm fussiness or Disney cracking the whip a bit on theater contracts.

 

Could also be that some theaters didn't want to meet demands for TROS, if there were any, while they gave in for EG.  But that's more speculation.