The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR vs XXR]

18 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Especially since people within this very thread are tracking theaters that are selling over four hundred tickets a day right now for this movie. I don't think VenomXXR's theater is selling as well as a lot are

 

There's definitely no theater that's currently selling 400 tickets a day. 

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Especially since people within this very thread are tracking theaters that are selling over four hundred tickets a day right now for this movie. I don't think VenomXXR's theater is selling as well as a lot are

You're confusing entire regions with individual theaters, I'm afraid.

[RockyMountain]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

You're confusing entire regions with individual theaters, I'm afraid.

Thought that may have been the case when I was typing it up.  As keyserzone said though probably isn't best to make that big of deal of one particular theater as some theaters will sell better than others will.

Edited December 14, 2019 by RockyMountain

[Manny G]

Said it before and I’ll say it again. This movie I’ll open sub $200M and won’t touch the billion worldwide.

[Knights of Ren]

6 minutes ago, Manny G said:

Said it before and I’ll say it again. This movie I’ll open sub $200M and won’t touch the billion worldwide.

*Bookmarked to later clown

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Manny G said:

Said it before and I’ll say it again. This movie I’ll open sub $200M and won’t touch the billion worldwide.

"won't touch 1b WW" implies well under, so very very very much against my better judgement, I'll bite.  What's the DOM/INT split for that?  Or, even better, DOM/China/OS-China split.

[cdsacken]

28 minutes ago, Manny G said:

Said it before and I’ll say it again. This movie I’ll open sub $200M and won’t touch the billion worldwide.

This implies under 900 ww. Might as well predict jumanji does more. Just as likely. To be clear almost impossible.

[jedijake]

47 minutes ago, Manny G said:

Said it before and I’ll say it again. This movie I’ll open sub $200M and won’t touch the billion worldwide.

I agree that it won't touch $1 billion WW on opening weekend. 

[RockyMountain]

To be honest 1.1 or 1.2 I could buy but people who say it will finish under a billion I think are just trolling.

 

Even if it doesn't hit 200m OW there is still a great chance it will be nearing the 1 billion mark by the end of the the second weekend.

Edited December 14, 2019 by RockyMountain

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1948

4011

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1923

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
10496	257	24189	43.39%	9	194

 

Showings added: 3

Seats added: 858

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 25.48M

Final Maleficent count comp: 29.77M

Final IT 2 count comp: 28.38M

Final Hobbs count comp: 29.67M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 30.54M

Final Lion King count comp: 31.82M

 

Average: 29.28M

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2052

4011

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1949

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
10759	263	24189	44.48%	9	194

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 26.11M

Final Maleficent count comp: 30.51M

Final IT 2 count comp: 29.09M

Final Hobbs count comp: 30.41M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 31.36M

Final Lion King count comp: 32.62M

 

Average: 30.02M

[jedijake]

55 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

To be honest 1.1 or 1.2 I could buy but people who say it will finish under a billion I think are just trolling.

 

Even if it doesn't hit 200m OW there is still a great chance it will be nearing the 1 billion mark by the end of the the second weekend.

Agreed. Under $1 billion is really trolling to me. 

 

I don't want to go down the path of under $190 million OW domestic. Nor do I want to go below $580 million domestic overall. But I am starting to really wonder and, yeah, worry a bit. If the preview # comes in less than $37 million I will really be concerned.

 

I'd rather TROS go out with a bang the way EG, Deathly Hallows 2, and ROTK did for their franchises and NOT the way Hunger Games, Matrix, and POTC did for theirs (although POTC5 was my 2nd favorite POTC film asfter COTBP). So under TLJ would be dissapointing but I could at least tolerate as low as $580 million domestic or MAYBE as low as $570 million but that's really getting down there for me. But unless this movie ends up WAY above TLJ, people are going to find ways to call it a failure no matter what. That's just where we are.

Edited December 14, 2019 by jedijake

[a2k]

Can see as low as 1.1B :

185 * 2.85 = 525 Dom

Dom heavier than TLJ's 46.5%-53.5% for say 47.7%-52.3% gives it 575 OS

525 + 575 = 1100

Can't see it under 1B though. Where do you remove 100 from the above.

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, a2k said:

Can see as low as 1.1B :

185 * 2.85 = 525 Dom

Dom heavier than TLJ's 46.5%-53.5% for say 47.7%-52.3% gives it 575 OS

525 + 575 = 1100

Can't see it under 1B though. Where do you remove 100 from the above.

36*4.7*2.95, RO DOM %    
 

I think it’ll clear that by 200,300M or so, but it’s not a completely outlandish low end scenario imo.

[jedijake]

9 minutes ago, a2k said:

Can see as low as 1.1B :

185 * 2.85 = 525 Dom

Dom heavier than TLJ's 46.5%-53.5% for say 47.7%-52.3% gives it 575 OS

525 + 575 = 1100

Can't see it under 1B though. Where do you remove 100 from the above.

Wow boy! That would be INSANE, especially the domestic number you posted! I can't even imagine......am I crazy to think that would be an absolute disaster???

 

Quote

36*4.7*2.95, RO DOM %  

Now we're just being silly.  Aren't we?

Edited December 14, 2019 by jedijake

[RockyMountain]

38 minutes ago, jedijake said:

 But unless this movie ends up WAY above TLJ, people are going to find ways to call it a failure no matter what. That's just where we are.

You just need to begin ignoring the channels and sites that are doing that. Most of them are just doing it for the attention that it will bring to their particular medium. 

[RockyMountain]

1.2/1.3/1.4 range is where I personally think it will end up.

[jedijake]

8 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

You just need to begin ignoring the channels and sites that are doing that. Most of them are just doing it for the attention that it will bring to their particular medium. 

Problem is, that would mean ignoring the internet and media altogether. (not a bad idea actually). Truth is, there is little to none that I've seen that have been positive toward this film.

 

If anyone can find one, please let me know.

[ZackM]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

Problem is, that would mean ignoring the internet and media altogether. (not a bad idea actually). Truth is, there is little to none that I've seen that have been positive toward this film.

 

If anyone can find one, please let me know.

Binge Mode and Star Wars Minute facebook groups.  Both are very ST positive.

[RockyMountain]

43 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Problem is, that would mean ignoring the internet and media altogether. (not a bad idea actually). Truth is, there is little to none that I've seen that have been positive toward this film.

 

If anyone can find one, please let me know.

YouTube channels like John Campea, Collider, Star Wars Explained, and the newly formed Schmoedown channel are good ones that pretty much keep the toxic fans away.

 

A lot of the overly negative fans will tend to flock to the places that tend to focus on negativity themselves. Avoiding those channels is a good way to avoid a lot of the toxic fans.

[Knights of Ren]

13 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

YouTube channels like John Campea, Collider, Star Wars Explained, and the newly formed Schmoedown channel are good ones that pretty much keep the toxic fans away.

 

A lot of the overly negative fans will tend to flock to the places that tend to focus on negativity themselves. Avoiding those channels is a good way to avoid a lot of the toxic fans.

Collider is toxic as hell.  Well at least Marc Fernandez