Jump to content
grim22

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

Are they doing that well? finally matching TLJ two days out is not that good especially considering two years of presale growth and the closeness of Christmas kinda undercuts that too 

It’s about to surpass TLJ

 

And i don’t think presale growth is that relevant in this case because SW was always huge, so it won’t have much where to grow 

 

The christmas closeness is a good point though... but i’m counting that, because even surpassing TLJ final presales i’m expecting OW to be $ 15-20M lower

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Predictions dont matter. we have wang's numbers and we have MTC numbers and we have folks like @Porthos who tracked Solo and now SW9 and so its not hard to see where it will end up. This is definitely nothing like Solo.

 

Edit: for Solo by release week the expectations started trending lower. Variety/HR said 130-150m and that was thinking SW faithful will walk in for it despite PS not what was expected after initial spurt.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/box-office-preview-solo-headed-lowest-opening-disney-star-wars-movies-1114228

 

https://variety.com/2018/film/news/solo-a-star-wars-story-box-office-opening-preview-1202818890/

To be fair, last week "industry expectations" were $175M for TROS...now Disney's are $160M this week...

 

So, TROS is also trending downward...but, with its enormous presales, there's not much more trend down it can go, I don't think...unless folks start returning their presold tickets, and that's pretty unlikely...

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It’s about to surpass TLJ

 

And i don’t think presale growth is that relevant in this case because SW was always huge, so it won’t have much where to grow 

 

The christmas closeness is a good point though... but i’m counting that, because even surpassing TLJ final presales i’m expecting OW to be $ 15-20M lower

So $200M-$205M?

 

I know it's a long shot, but I'm hoping WOM is good amoung audiences and that the internal multi is stronger than normal. I'd love to see a bigger Saturday than we all expect based on opening day.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, TwoMisfits said:

To be fair, last week "industry expectations" were $175M for TROS...now Disney's are $160M this week...

 

So, TROS is also trending downward...but, with its enormous presales, there's not much more trend down it can go, I don't think...unless folks start returning their presold tickets, and that's pretty unlikely...

Disney always go below industry expectations. F2 at 100m during release week !!!!!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It’s about to surpass TLJ

 

And i don’t think presale growth is that relevant in this case because SW was always huge, so it won’t have much where to grow 

 

The christmas closeness is a good point though... but i’m counting that, because even surpassing TLJ final presales i’m expecting OW to be $ 15-20M lower

Doesn’t the article from deadline so on pace with TLJ? 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/16/2019 at 8:53 PM, keysersoze123 said:

SW9(T-3)

MTC1 Prev - overall 5729 shows 406147/918802 6003181.03 +18093
MTC2 Prev - overall 3345 shows 264121/478214 3294739.00 +8769
MTC1 OD - overall 5587 shows 347498/1125030 5231961.66 +25944
MTC2 OD - overall 5045 shows 268852/807908 2929285.00 +16006
MTC1 D2 - overall 5406 shows 286003/1099143 4126364.66 +13114 (20 hours)
MTC2 D2 - overall 4650 shows 222472/754419 2373846.00 +8969 (20 hours)
MTC1 D3 - overall 5231 shows 176171/1062383 2541168.27 +9492 (19 hours)
MTC2 D3 - overall 4641 shows 133752/758720 1374614.00 +7473 (20 hours)

 

Very nice acceleration especially at MTC1. I had run D2/3 earlier this afternoon and so it was less than full day but looking at Previews/OD at MTC1 acceleration is starting. I am hoping for at least 7K shows at MTC1 for previews and 5K at MTC2. for OD the show count should cross 8K. let us wait for tomorrow for big burst and then again on final day.

 

I also ran D6/7 earlier this morning. Good numbers especially on christmas day.

 

MTC1 D6 - overall 4642 shows 77586/942586 1098230.56
MTC2 D6 - overall 3165 shows 68585/548663 699170.00
MTC1 D7 - overall 4554 shows 34411/924184 490469.86
MTC2 D7 - overall 3135 shows 29857/547234 297228.00

 

 

SW9 (T-2)

MTC1 previews -overall 6463 shows 428568/992189 6315156.59  +22421
MTC2 Previews - overall 3713 shows 278911/517004 3465469.00 +14790
MTC1 OD - overall 7549 shows 376731/1361150 5623961.33 +29233
MTC2 OD - overall 5972 shows 294353/913779 3184614.00 +25501
MTC1 D2 - overall 6052 shows 308639/1176057 4425738.92 +22636
MTC2 D2 - overall 5468 shows 240738/857727 2567671.00 +16266
MTC1 D3 - overall 6052 shows 193562/1168350 2780059.17  +17389
MTC2 D3 - overall 5544 shows 147993/870260 1519243.00  +14241

 

Huge boost for OD. at MTC2 the OD has pulled away though I expect previews to boost more on thursday and retake the lead.

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 (T-2)

MTC1 previews -overall 6463 shows 428568/992189 6315156.59  +22421
MTC2 Previews - overall 3713 shows 278911/517004 3465469.00 +14790
MTC1 OD - overall 7549 shows 376731/1361150 5623961.33 +29233
MTC2 OD - overall 5972 shows 294353/913779 3184614.00 +25501
MTC1 D2 - overall 6052 shows 308639/1176057 4425738.92 +22636
MTC2 D2 - overall 5468 shows 240738/857727 2567671.00 +16266
MTC1 D3 - overall 6052 shows 193562/1168350 2780059.17  +17389
MTC2 D3 - overall 5544 shows 147993/870260 1519243.00  +14241

 

Huge boost for OD. at MTC2 the OD has pulled away though I expect previews to boost more on thursday and retake the lead.

I am a bit disappointed at the boost tbh. It's falling way behind TLK pace at MTC2 so might not match what I was projecting from that but hopefully it can jump tomorrow.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

To be fair, last week "industry expectations" were $175M for TROS...now Disney's are $160M this week...

 

So, TROS is also trending downward...but, with its enormous presales, there's not much more trend down it can go, I don't think...unless folks start returning their presold tickets, and that's pretty unlikely...

I think "industry expectations" and Disney's expectations are two different beasts IIRC

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

2nd local (Regal) is up...and it also did NOT expand TROS for FSS - the movie will be stuck with 18 showings (4 3d, 14 2d)...this has now become a pattern at the smaller theaters (since this is 3 in my metro doing it already)...and again, they have chosen to hold holdovers that you'd think would have been dropped if the theaters were either getting a better deal or expecting an enormous, mind-blowing number...they obviously did math and figured sucky holdovers at possibly a 40% pull would make as much or more revenue for them as 65% takes on TROS - can't say I blame them b/c everything tends to sell out Dec 21-25...here's the set...

 

NEW 

TROS 4 - 18 showings- 4 3d, 14 2d) - they get the biggies

Cats 1 - 6 showings

Bombshell 1 - 5 showings

 

Returning

Black Christmas 1 - 5 showings - yes, their studio also seemed to know how to cut a booking deal, just like Richard Jewell, which speaking of...

Richard Jewell 1 - 5 showings - just like the other local - great contract:)

Jumanji 1 - 5 showings - lost a screen but at least keeps a 2nd biggest one

Knives Out 1 - 5 showings

Frozen 1 - 5 showings

Queen and Slim 1 - 5 showings - are you kidding?  this is the biggest "we either don't expect a huge SW number or we're gonna make subscribers wait to see it b/c we gotta hold it 4 weeks anyway...so watch this movie where we pay out so much less" call:)...

 

So, 3 theaters small-to-midsize theaters...no TROS expansion FSS - I fully expect them to give Thursday night shows in full to TROS, so we could be looking at Thursday having as many showings as a FSS in many places...

Jumanji charging less than cheap movies. Star wars charging 65% ,(OUCH). Why would they?

Link to post
Share on other sites

What @TwoMisfits is forgetting in regards to Black Christmas and Richard Jewell is that they come from major studios (WB and Universal) as such the standard 2 week minimum is going to be honored, i.e. keeping it on a full screen for the 5 showings. 

Its not like they were some one off indi such as an A24 film or such with much less wiggle room. 

The problem with BC and RJ is that likely in addition to potential SW needs, Christmas films will also need screens and they will potentially be eligible for cutting then without breaking the contract. 

 

The odd duck is definitely queen and slim, but maybe it has played well at that particular theater.   

As with the presales, its also potentially over thinking to apply inapplicable connotations to films in the 2 week window. 

Edit to add:

Not saying theaters arent being more selective, and Disney is being stupidly bull headed with their 65%/4 week crap, but such is the cost of showing the highest grossing movies and best overall crowd draws. Downside is that as noted by others, everyone goes to the cinema this time of year and having better return potential is a question that theaters have to answer. 

Edited by narniadis
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Cats Greater Philadelphia Seat Report T-2 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 22 136 2,785 4.88%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 62

Total Seats Sold Today: 24

 

Comp

1.308x of Dora (1.63M)

2.267x of Abominable (1.47M)

0.782x of Addams Family (977K)

0.560x of Maleficent (1.29M)

2.667x of Last Christmas (1.53M)

1.143x of Charlie’s Angels (1.03M)

0.070x of Frozen II (594K)

0.470x of Jumanji (2.21M)

 

Not much else to say. Comps are kinda all over the place, but most of them I'd say would be fine. Not much to report

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

11

251

9470

26932

17462

64.84%

SELLOUT NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and/or wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

 

Total Sellouts Added Today

4

Total Showings Added Today

23*

Total Seats Added Today

1230

Total Seats Sold Today

668

* NOTE: Includes eight showings from theaters and drive-ins that have non-reserved seating

 

T-2 Adjusted Comp #1 

 

   %

 

Sold T-2

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

CM

241.26

 

802

6917

 

1/195

11747/18664

37.06%

 

49.94m

EG

75.16

 

1182

22204

 

41/302

5738/27942

79.46%

 

45.09m

TROS (adj)

n/a

 

634

16688

 

11/251

8373/25061

66.59%

 

n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Endgame had 24 days of pre-sales.

 

T-2 Adjusted Comp #2

 

   %

 

Sold T-2

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

Solo

322.79

 

236

4501

 

1/103

6745/11010

38.74%

 

45.51m

TROS (adj)

n/a

 

527

14529

 

11/251

6320/20849

69.26%

 

n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Solo.

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales and Solo 21 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

Spoiler

of:

 

   %

 

Final Sold

 

TROS Sold

 

Comp

DP2

178.64

 

8133

 

14529

 

33.23m

Solo

250.98

 

5789

 

14529

 

35.59m

JW:FK

233.29

 

6228

 

14529

 

35.69m

AM&tW

315.50

 

4605

 

14529

 

36.28m

Venom

345.58

 

4493

 

15527

 

34.56m

CM

158.14

 

10553

 

16688

 

32.73m

EG

62.61

 

26655

 

16688

 

37.56m

TLK

152.03

 

10977

 

16688

 

34.97m

It 2

308.57

 

5659

 

17462

 

32.40m

AVG

 

 

 

 

 

 

34.76m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

 

===

 

An increase from yesterday, but not nearly like the bump Endgame got. Almost entirely down to the fact that most of the showings added today were after 9pm.  The ones that were are in the 6pm to 8pm range are mostly getting snapped up in a hurry.  But the intensity to get the worst of the worst seats isn't quite there.

 

Some theaters should still add showtimes though.  Still, now down to how many sellouts (or Tele sellouts if one prefers) TROS manages to get.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 3
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats Sold

Total Seats

Seats Left

Perct Sold

TOTALS

5

290

21203

58052

36849

36.52%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Showings Added Today: 15

Total Seats Added Today: 2076

Total Seats Sold Today: 1307

 

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

 

   %

 

Final Sold

 

TROS Sold

 

Comp

Joker

251.79

 

8421

 

21203

 

33.49m

Frozen 2

328.22

 

6460

 

21203

 

27.90m

 

===

 

Another impressive day here in the region. We're really in the final stretch now.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 4 200 13,885 34,866 39.82%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 2

Total Shows Added Today: 14

Total Seats Added Today: 1,136

Total Seats Sold Today: 835

 

Comp

7.273x of It: Chapter Two 2 days before release (76.37M)

5.428x of Joker 2 days before release (72.19M)

7.135x of Frozen II 2 days before release (60.65M)

 

Adjusted Comp

2.036x of Lion King 2 days before release (46.82M)

 

This was what I was looking for. A strong increase, bolstered by a couple sellouts too. I'm satisfied right now.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

11

251

9470

26932

17462

64.84%

SELLOUT NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and/or wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

 

Total Sellouts Added Today

4

Total Showings Added Today

23*

Total Seats Added Today

1230

Total Seats Sold Today

668

* NOTE: Includes eight showings from theaters and drive-ins that have non-reserved seating

 

T-2 Adjusted Comp #1 

 

   %

 

Sold T-2

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

CM

241.26

 

802

6917

 

1/195

11747/18664

37.06%

 

49.94m

EG

75.16

 

1182

22204

 

41/302

5738/27942

79.46%

 

45.09m

TROS (adj)

n/a

 

634

16688

 

11/251

8373/25061

66.59%

 

n/a

 


 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

  Reveal hidden contents

 

As of now 45m looks more likely. Hoping for good increase today around 1800 tickets. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

As of now 45m looks more likely. Hoping for good increase today around 1800 tickets. 

Weeelllll, we'll see.  I didn't exactly love the day-to-day increase locally today.  Would have liked to see about 100 or so more tickets.  40+ is very likely as long as Sacto isn't massively over-performing, I'll say that much.

 

As for 45m?  Might just come down to how many sellouts we get and/or how many more decent showtimes get added between now and 6pm Thr.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Now notwithstanding what I said in my last post, and not counting shows that are already sold out, there are 18 showings right now with single digits of seats left.  And a total of 44 showings at 15 seats or less (to pick an arbitrary number).

 

What I'm not sure of is how many of those showings will actually sellout (or get close enough for me to count it as a sellout at final check [6 seats or fewer left])

Link to post
Share on other sites

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Various theater chains (Michigan)
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 43 13 1 0 -1
Seats Added 3,778 4,224 321 6 -33
Seats Sold 1,470 962 858 586 566
           
12/17/2019 Showings Seats Left Total Seats Seats Sold Pct. Sold
Total 324 32,541 54,457 21,916 40.24%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 20 49 81 114 144

 

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 4
  • Astonished 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.