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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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3 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

It’s about to surpass TLJ

 

And i don’t think presale growth is that relevant in this case because SW was always huge, so it won’t have much where to grow 

 

The christmas closeness is a good point though... but i’m counting that, because even surpassing TLJ final presales i’m expecting OW to be $ 15-20M lower

PS growth was very relevant between TFA and TLJ (both almost the same amount of PS's but TLJ opened quite a bit lower. So we should expect another 10% more PS heavyness. The better ramp up might make up for this.

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7 hours ago, narniadis said:

What @TwoMisfits is forgetting in regards to Black Christmas and Richard Jewell is that they come from major studios (WB and Universal) as such the standard 2 week minimum is going to be honored, i.e. keeping it on a full screen for the 5 showings. 

Its not like they were some one off indi such as an A24 film or such with much less wiggle room. 

The problem with BC and RJ is that likely in addition to potential SW needs, Christmas films will also need screens and they will potentially be eligible for cutting then without breaking the contract. 

 

The odd duck is definitely queen and slim, but maybe it has played well at that particular theater.   

As with the presales, its also potentially over thinking to apply inapplicable connotations to films in the 2 week window. 

Edit to add:

Not saying theaters arent being more selective, and Disney is being stupidly bull headed with their 65%/4 week crap, but such is the cost of showing the highest grossing movies and best overall crowd draws. Downside is that as noted by others, everyone goes to the cinema this time of year and having better return potential is a question that theaters have to answer. 

Yes, but...these theaters both kept those movies on full screens (when these 2 have been known to "tighten" in the 2nd week and drop individual showings of poor performing movies, but keeping them on - see Mortal Engines) and kept long term holdovers on full screens, when they could have easily combined - I mean Knives Out and Frozen would have been an obvious combo for the weekend (and they could have reexpanded on Monday)...past enormous blockbusters, that's what they did...this time, both theaters have held TROS under 20 showings per day, which is low for both.  

 

PS - And FYI, for now, both have not fully set the week, but for Xmas day, they are committing to 14 and 8 showings now...but they do not have a full set past Sunday, so they are gonna play wait and see on this...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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22 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Yes, but...these theaters both kept those movies on full screens (when these 2 have been known to "tighten" in the 2nd week and drop individual showings of poor performing movies, but keeping them on - see Mortal Engines) and kept long term holdovers on full screens, when they could have easily combined - I mean Knives Out and Frozen would have been an obvious combo for the weekend (and they could have reexpanded on Monday)...past enormous blockbusters, that's what they did...this time, both theaters have held TROS under 20 showings per day, which is low for both.  

 

PS - And FYI, for now, both have not fully set the week, but for Xmas day, they are committing to 14 and 8 showings now...but they do not have a full set past Sunday, so they are gonna play wait and see on this...

👍 

Seems everyone with less than 12 is playing wait and see my 4 screen hasnt even popped their post weekend plans yet but we only get 1 SW screen overall - didnt live here for Jedi for not sure if that was normal or not. 

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6 hours ago, Porthos said:

Weeelllll, we'll see.  I didn't exactly love the day-to-day increase locally today.  Would have liked to see about 100 or so more tickets.  40+ is very likely as long as Sacto isn't massively over-performing, I'll say that much.

 

As for 45m?  Might just come down to how many sellouts we get and/or how many more decent showtimes get added between now and 6pm Thr.

I'm thinking that your CM comp could go below 40 million though

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15 minutes ago, narniadis said:

👍

Seems everyone with less than 12 is playing wait and see my 4 screen hasnt even popped their post weekend plans yet but we only get 1 SW screen overall - didnt live here for Jedi for not sure if that was normal or not. 

I owe you a like...it's a long week when you burn up likes by 8am on a Wed:)...

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22 hours ago, Jayhawk the Hutt said:

 

TROS 12/17 Updates #11 (Last Update 12/16(

Day Seats Sold Total Seats Avg, Ticket Price Gross % of Seats Sold (+) Previous Tickets (+) Previous Gross
Thursday 2298 3252 $16.54 $39,930.00 70.66% (+) 63 (+) $998.25
Friday 3013 5141 $14.40 $45,384.50 58.61% (+) 106 (+) $1,638.00
Saturday 2886 5223 $14.32 $42,444.25 55.26% (+) 99 (+) $1,544.75
Sunday 2009 5223 $14.32 $29,034.25 38.46% (+) 77 (+) $1,090.75
Total 10206 18839 $15.36 $156,793.00 54.17% (+) 345 (+) $5,271.75

 

Nice increase again, sales really ramping up.

TROS 12/18 Update #12 (Last Update 12/17)

Day Seats Sold Total Seats Avg, Ticket Price Gross % of Seats Sold (+) Previous Tickets (+) Previous Gross
Thursday 2380 3340 $16.45 $41,262.00 71.26% (+) 82 (+) $1,332.00
Friday 3186 5141 $14.40 $47,863.25 61.97% (+) 173 (+) $2,478.75
Saturday 3088 5223 $14.32 $45,278.50 59.12% (+) 202 (+) $2,834.50
Sunday 2099 5223 $14.32 $30,323.50 40.19% (+) 90 (+) $1,289.25
Total 10753 18927 $15.32 $164,727.25 56.81% (+) 547 (+) $7,934.25

 

Preview gross is almost maxed out. Friday and Saturday growth is incredibly strong.

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In the Bay Area, which is a very theater-friendly region compared to other markets, the majority of Sunday afternoon and evening showings in our biggest theaters have still sold exactly zero seats. Two weeks ago, I thought opening weekend would be just under TLJ, but now, pending massive turnaround in audience reception (which has stagnated greatly) to Star Wars, I can't see how this crosses $200 million.

Edited by I Am
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1 hour ago, RockyMountain said:

Ooh. 59% on RT. This may not affect OW but could affect its legs if the audience feels the same way about it as critics do.

Critics were in love with TLJ like they are with lots of fancy horror films. The audience did not love it. Many hated it.

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6 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Fan reaction to this looks just as bad. 

We don't really know that yet. Hardly anybody has seen the movie yet so if you are seeing user reviews then chances are they are writing something up without even seeing it yet.

 

I do think this is going to be a movie that fans enjoy more than critics with all the fan service statements there have been.

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3 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

We don't really know that yet. Hardly anybody has seen the movie yet so if you are seeing user reviews then chances are they are writing something up without even seeing it yet.

 

I do think this is going to be a movie that fans enjoy more than critics with all the fan service statements there have been.

From what I’m reading people who hated TLJ have read the spoilers and think this sounds just as bad. It also apparently is convoluted which might hurt it with  general audiences 

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5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

From what I’m reading people who hated TLJ have read the spoilers and think this sounds just as bad. It also apparently is convoluted which might hurt it with  general audiences 

The general audience rewarded Transformers for being mindless, but simple action.

"The Force Awakens" was kind of like that, but from everything we're being told about "Rise of Skywalker," its story is noticeably distracting, which is why I can't see word of mouth being enough to push this into "Aladdin" legs.

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14 minutes ago, John Marston said:

From what I’m reading people who hated TLJ have read the spoilers and think this sounds just as bad. It also apparently is convoluted which might hurt it with  general audiences 

Yeah but the only problem with paying attention to what online people who hated TLJ say is that many of them have an agenda. Plus you need to remember they are just reading about vague plot points. It may be totally different once they see it play out onscreen.

 

The fans may very well dislike it as well but just going off of what has been said it does seem like a movie made to get audience praise instead of critic praise We'll see starting tomorrow night. Critics tend to focus more on how good something is overall than fans do. Fans tend to care more about specific story details that are important to them.

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T-2 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

 

MTC 1: $28.4mn Approx (+$1.7mn)

 

At same time

Endgame: $45.5mn Approx (+$2.5mn)

 

MTC 2: $16.1mn ( +$1.1mn)

 

At same time

Endgame: $26mn Approx (+$1.5mn)

The Lion King: $7.3mn (+$1.3mn)

 

Nationwide estimates

  SW: TRS A: EG %
Previews $25.81 $33.50 77.03%
Friday $23.99 $39.00 61.52%
Saturday $19.09 $37.50 50.90%
Sunday $11.78 $26.00 45.30%
Rest $16.90 $21.00 80.47%
Total $97.57 $157.00 62.14%


At same time

Endgame: $157mn

The Lion King: $44mn 

 

Note: All these numbers include a good amount of estimation. The system is working well but there's always margin of error, take +/-5%.

 

http://bit.ly/JatUSPS

Edited by Jedi Jat
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16 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

T-2 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

 

MTC 1: $28.4mn Approx (+$1.7mn)

 

At same time

Endgame: $45.5mn Approx (+$2.5mn)

 

MTC 2: $16.1mn ( +$1.1mn)

 

At same time

Endgame: $26mn Approx (+$1.5mn)

The Lion King: $7.3mn (+$1.3mn)

 

Nationwide estimates

  SW: TRS A: EG %
Previews $25.81 $33.50 77.03%
Friday $23.99 $39.00 61.52%
Saturday $19.09 $37.50 50.90%
Sunday $11.78 $26.00 45.30%
Rest $16.90 $21.00 80.47%
Total $97.57 $157.00 62.14%


At same time

Endgame: $157mn

The Lion King: $44mn 

 

Note: All these numbers include a good amount of estimation. The system is working well but there's always margin of error, take +/-5%.

 

http://bit.ly/JatUSPS

So would need around $120m more for rest of the weekend to get to 200m.

 

I'm thinking OW will be high 180s/low 190s.

Edited by AdrianL
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27 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

T-2 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

 

MTC 1: $28.4mn Approx (+$1.7mn)

 

At same time

Endgame: $45.5mn Approx (+$2.5mn)

 

MTC 2: $16.1mn ( +$1.1mn)

 

At same time

Endgame: $26mn Approx (+$1.5mn)

The Lion King: $7.3mn (+$1.3mn)

 

Nationwide estimates

  SW: TRS A: EG %
Previews $25.81 $33.50 77.03%
Friday $23.99 $39.00 61.52%
Saturday $19.09 $37.50 50.90%
Sunday $11.78 $26.00 45.30%
Rest $16.90 $21.00 80.47%
Total $97.57 $157.00 62.14%


At same time

Endgame: $157mn

The Lion King: $44mn 

 

Note: All these numbers include a good amount of estimation. The system is working well but there's always margin of error, take +/-5%.

 

http://bit.ly/JatUSPS

Let's say from there it gets $40 million in previews. Then OD may have $33 million in ps, times 1.4 will be $46 million. 40+46+51+43 gives $180 million OW. 

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