The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[a2k]

25 minutes ago, Menor said:

Let's say from there it gets $40 million in previews. Then OD may have $33 million in ps, times 1.4 will be $46 million. 40+46+51+43 gives $180 million OW. 

using your holds

% Hold	Previews	40.00	41.00	42.00	43.00	44.00	45.00
15.00	Fri	46.00	47.15	48.30	49.45	50.60	51.75
10.87	Sat	51.00	52.28	53.55	54.83	56.10	57.38
-15.69	Sun	43.00	44.08	45.15	46.23	47.30	48.38
	OW	180	184.5	189	193.5	198	202.5

[el sid]

Cats, counted today at 10am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes so far
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 35 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 42 (total tickets sold for Friday, 5 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 23 / 14 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 28 /19 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 14 / 34 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): showtimes): 17 / 22 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 15 / 4 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 65 / 84 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 20 / 24 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 83 / 62 (10 showtimes)
Total tickets sold in 9 theaters till today for Thursday: 300 and for Friday: 305.

Comps: Blinded by the Light (4.3M OW) had on Wednesday 0/95 sold tickets, OUATIH (41.1M OW) 2.610/1.974 and Charlie's Angels (8.4M OW but must have had terrible walk ups) 218/398. Looks like mid teens so far.
So where I count its presales could be a bit better but maybe with these twitter reactions the OW isn't too important. Plus, almost all Friday showtimes were added very recently and it could look way more crowded tomorrow, also because of the reviews. I make a trip into the Alps tomorrow but maybe the numbers of CoolEric show a very decent jump.

And TROS, also counted from 10am EST on:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 681 (total tickets sold for Thursday, 14 showtimes, 5 added) / 1.021 (total tickets sold for Friday, 22 showtimes, 8 added)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 1.372 + 1 Sell Out / 1.699 (19 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common 19): 1.489 + 9 Sell Outs / 2.754 + 2 Sell Outs (27 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 2.156 + 8 Sell Outs / 1.768 + 5 Sell Outs (36 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 830 + 5 Sell Outs / 1.182 (28 showtimes)
Unbelievable total tickets sold in 5 theaters till today for Thursday: 6.528 + 23 Sell Outs and for Friday: 8.424 + 7 Sell Outs.

After more than 2 hours of counting I gave up but the greatly nice tendency becomes clear anyway.
Comps: It 2 (91.1M OW) had on Wednesday in the same 5 theaters 1.816/1.866 sold tickets, TLK (191.8M OW) had 4.390/4.905 and Frozen II (130.3M OW) 1.564/2.955.

[doublejack]

5 hours ago, RockyMountain said:

We don't really know that yet. Hardly anybody has seen the movie yet so if you are seeing user reviews then chances are they are writing something up without even seeing it yet.

 

I do think this is going to be a movie that fans enjoy more than critics with all the fan service statements there have been.

This is anecdotal, but my friend group has canceled our planned viewing tomorrow. Nobody is outright saying they no longer want to see the movie, but they are canceling for mundane reasons. One friend said he'd rather go to karate class, for example.

 

I don't think RT alone is the reason, but the score does seem to be having an impact. The bigger issue is the reactions on social media. I was just on twitter... and let's just say I've got a bad feeling about this.

[FlashMaster659]

Anybody want to help me with my two TROS updates tomorrow? It won't be possible for me to keep them within short time frames tomorrow doing them by myself.

[Tinalera]

Anecdota from my part, its more general feelings. Couple People who watched TFA and TLJ, they are feeling " yea ill see it, but star wars movies dont feel special.now. its another movie franchise to watch. 

 

One of the two said they really were enjoying mandalorian tho.

 

From a weekend perspective i think it will do well and make money obviously. But its where the series goes forward movie wise, and with success of mandalorian and other series set to debut, how does that affect movie division? 

 

Will be interesting where the course is charted

 

[XXR vs XXR]

23 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Anybody want to help me with my two TROS updates tomorrow? It won't be possible for me to keep them within short time frames tomorrow doing them by myself.

Depending on what you need done, I may be able to assist.

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/17/2019 at 3:13 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2314

4011

57.69%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2081

3926

53.01%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
12106	578	24620	49.17%	9	199

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 158

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 29.38M

Final Maleficent count comp: 34.33M

Final IT 2 count comp: 32.74M

Final Hobbs count comp: 34.22M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 35.60M

Final Lion King count comp: 36.70M

 

Average: 33.83M

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2421

4011

60.36%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2147

3926

54.69%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
12673	567	24620	51.47%	9	199

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 30.76M

Final Maleficent count comp: 35.94M

Final IT 2 count comp: 34.27M

Final Hobbs count comp: 35.82M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 37.36M

Final Lion King count comp: 38.42M

 

Average: 35.43M

 

Very disappointing day. The reviews might be hurting sales. Also the lack of more showtimes being added from 6-9PM isn't helping. But more should be added later this afternoon and evening. So, we'll see if there are enough openings in those hours for a big boost tomorrow. To get the average of my comps to 40M, there needs to be 1655 tickets sold between now and previews. Which is a big number to reach, perhaps too big of a number.

Edited December 18, 2019 by Inceptionzq

[FTF]

2 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2421

4011

60.36%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2147

3926

54.69%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
12673	567	24620	51.47%	9	199

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 30.76M

Final Maleficent count comp: 35.94M

Final IT 2 count comp: 34.27M

Final Hobbs count comp: 35.82M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 37.36M

Final Lion King count comp: 38.42M

 

Average: 35.43M

 

Very disappointing day. The reviews might be hurting sales. Also the lack of more showtimes being added from 6-9PM isn't helping. But more should be added later this afternoon and evening. So, we'll see if there are enough openings in those hours for a big boost tomorrow. To get the average of my comps to 40M, there needs to be 1655 tickets sold between now and previews. Which is a big number to reach, perhaps too big of a number.

Yeah see this is where I feel reviews actually do play a (small) part in an OW.  If it was 80+% on RT like we were all hoping, there’d be a def bigger boost in pre-sale #s.  

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2421

4011

60.36%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2147

3926

54.69%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
12673	567	24620	51.47%	9	199

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 30.76M

Final Maleficent count comp: 35.94M

Final IT 2 count comp: 34.27M

Final Hobbs count comp: 35.82M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 37.36M

Final Lion King count comp: 38.42M

 

Average: 35.43M

 

Very disappointing day. The reviews might be hurting sales. Also the lack of more showtimes being added from 6-9PM isn't helping. But more should be added later this afternoon and evening. So, we'll see if there are enough openings in those hours for a big boost tomorrow. To get the average of my comps to 40M, there needs to be 1655 tickets sold between now and previews. Which is a big number to reach, perhaps too big of a number.

It sold less today than yesterday...yeah, that's not a good sign in the last 48 hours b/c that's exactly what JL did...

[keysersoze123]

18 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 (T-2)

MTC1 D2 - overall 6052 shows 308639/1176057 4425738.92 +22636
MTC2 D2 - overall 5468 shows 240738/857727 2567671.00 +16266
MTC1 D3 - overall 6052 shows 193562/1168350 2780059.17  +17389
MTC2 D3 - overall 5544 shows 147993/870260 1519243.00  +14241

 

Huge boost for OD. at MTC2 the OD has pulled away though I expect previews to boost more on thursday and retake the lead.

I normally post updates at the night after getting data for all 4 days but thought i will post this to show PS is not dropping from yesterday. its possible some individual theater/cities could be lower if they dont add enough shows, but nationally its still on the up.

 

SW9(T-1)

MTC1 D2 - overall 7882 shows 336608/1406219 4783433.60 +27969
MTC2 D2 - overall 6079 shows 262442/929105 2785509.00 +21704
MTC1 D3 - overall 7554 shows 214710/1363828 3058936.34  +21148
MTC2 D3 -  overall 6002 shows 164145/924711 1680303.00 +16152

 

I will update previews/OD at night as usual.

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I normally post updates at the night after getting data for all 4 days but thought i will post this to show PS is not dropping from yesterday. its possible some individual theater/cities could be lower if they dont add enough shows, but nationally its still on the up.

 

SW9(T-1)

MTC1 D2 - overall 7882 shows 336608/1406219 4783433.60 +27969
MTC2 D2 - overall 6079 shows 262442/929105 2785509.00 +215704
MTC1 D3 - overall 7554 shows 214710/1363828 3058936.34  +21148
MTC2 D3 -  overall 6002 shows 164145/924711 1680303.00 +16152

 

I will update previews/OD at night as usual.

 

I think you added an extra digit in MTC2 D2

[XXR vs XXR]

Star Wars: TROS -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 6:00pm CST -- 1 Day to Previews  

 

 

Dolby Cinema
07:00pm: 205/205 -- SOLD OUT 

10:40pm: 163/205

02:15am: 42/205 

 

IMAX / IMAX 3D

06:00pm: 128/151 

09:40pm: 118/151 

01:20am: 26/151

 

Real 3D

06:00pm: 47/125 

06:20pm: 11/76

06:25pm: 17/76

06:30pm: 17/76 

06:45pm: 21/60

07:00pm: 21/60

07:15pm: 35/60

09:45pm: 31/125

10:05pm: 0/76

10:10pm: 0/76

10:30pm: 4/76

10:40pm: 0/60

10:50pm: 0/60

11:10pm: 0/60

01:45am: 0/76

 

Digital 

06:00pm: 110/147

06:15pm: 51/76

07:10pm: 28/147

07:30pm: 43/60
07:40pm: 2/44

07:45pm: 24/44 

08:00pm: 23/44

08:15pm: 27/44
08:30pm: 19/44

08:45pm: 80/125

09:50pm: 97/147

09:55pm: 38/76

10:00pm: 43/76
10:45pm: 5/147
11:00pm: 3/44

11:25pm: 13/44

11:40pm: 0/44

11:55pm: 0/44
12:00am: 0/44

12:25am: 10/125

1:30am: 13/147

1:40am: 1/76

 

Fan Event

05:00pm: 102/125

 

 

TOTAL

44 show times, 1597 tickets sold out of 4124 seats available (41.40%)

 

 

 

Comps to Final Tracked Numbers

Captain Marvel = 1440 sold @ 5:30pm - Thursday

Avengers: Endgame = 3623 sold @ 5:30pm - Thursday 

Toy Story 4 = 822 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday 

The Lion King = 1570 sold @ 4:00pm - Thursday

Joker = 659 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think you added an extra digit in MTC2 D2

Made it look more impressive for sure. But thanks anyway I have fixed it.

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

TOTAL

44 show times, 1597 tickets sold out of 4124 seats available (41.40%)

 

 

Comps to Final Tracked Numbers

Captain Marvel = 1440 sold @ 5:30pm - Thursday

Avengers: Endgame = 3623 sold @ 5:30pm - Thursday 

Toy Story 4 = 822 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday 

The Lion King = 1570 sold @ 4:00pm - Thursday

Joker = 659 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday

 

I'm not seeing anywhere near the type of ramp up I expected to see. I think $40m previews is dead. If I had to bet right now, I'd put my money on $35-37m. 

Edited December 18, 2019 by VenomXXR

[TwoMisfits]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I normally post updates at the night after getting data for all 4 days but thought i will post this to show PS is not dropping from yesterday. its possible some individual theater/cities could be lower if they dont add enough shows, but nationally its still on the up.

 

SW9(T-1)

MTC1 D2 - overall 7882 shows 336608/1406219 4783433.60 +27969
MTC2 D2 - overall 6079 shows 262442/929105 2785509.00 +21704
MTC1 D3 - overall 7554 shows 214710/1363828 3058936.34  +21148
MTC2 D3 -  overall 6002 shows 164145/924711 1680303.00 +16152

 

I will update previews/OD at night as usual.

 

But there's zero ramp (as another poster mentioned)...in last 48 hours, that's really not good...

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

But there's zero ramp (as another poster mentioned)...in last 48 hours, that's really not good...

Data he posted shows there is indeed a ramp up.

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Data he posted shows there is indeed a ramp up.

20% more in the 48 hour prior to open period isn't much of one...even knowing how Star Wars presells more than anything else in the prior-to-48-hour period...

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

20% more in the 48 hour prior to open period isn't much of one...even knowing how Star Wars presells more than anything else in the prior-to-48-hour period...

It's significantly less than 24 hours for the second set of data so the real bump will be significantly higher.

Edited December 19, 2019 by Menor

[Legion Again]

No matter reviews, sales were going to ramp up on D-1 and D-0, especially for days 2 and 3. Important question imo is whether preview and D1 sales ramp up less.

[TLK]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I normally post updates at the night after getting data for all 4 days but thought i will post this to show PS is not dropping from yesterday. its possible some individual theater/cities could be lower if they dont add enough shows, but nationally its still on the up.

 

SW9(T-1)

MTC1 D2 - overall 7882 shows 336608/1406219 4783433.60 +27969
MTC2 D2 - overall 6079 shows 262442/929105 2785509.00 +21704
MTC1 D3 - overall 7554 shows 214710/1363828 3058936.34  +21148
MTC2 D3 -  overall 6002 shows 164145/924711 1680303.00 +16152

 

I will update previews/OD at night as usual.

 

 

Have you any plans to run numbers for CATS Thursday previews as well?