The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

Let’s rely on the nationwide data. It’s always gonna vary from area to area. For example, mine showed a 48% bump in this 24 hour period compared to the previous 

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local

Archive Chart under Cut

Spoiler

 

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Preview Start
Shazam!					129/2229	(Afternoon)	187/2229	(3:30pm)	$5.9m	4:00 PM
Avengers: Endgame	3948/4,736	(12am)			4,853/5493	(9pm)			$60m	6:00 PM
Aladdin			98/1242	(12pm)					$7m	6:00 PM
Godzilla 2					135/1915	(7:45pm)	204/2150	(3:30pm)	$6.3m	4:00 PM
X-Men: DP			103/942	(4pm)	209/942	(3:15pm)	272/942	(3:45pm)	$5m	6:00 PM
SLOP 2			38/771	(4pm)	43/771	(3:15pm)			$2.3m	6:00 PM
Toy Story 4			165/2049	(4pm)	233/2049	(7:40pm)			$12m	6:00 PM
SM:FFH	142/922								$2.8m	Midnights Only
The Lion King	236/3228	(6:30pm)	294/3228	(6:20pm)	444/3228	(4:30pm)	557/3228	(4:30pm)	$23m	6:00 PM
OUATIH			117/1179	(2:15pm)	159/1179	(4pm)	335/1179	(4:20pm)	$5.8m	4:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw	60/1543	(5:20pm)			181/1543	(4pm)			$5.8m	7:00 PM
IT Part 2	147/2764	(9am)			239/2764	(7:10pm)			$10.5m	5:00 PM
Hustlers			45/512	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	$2.5m	6:00 PM
Downton Abbey (eps)			37/301	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	$2.2m	7:00 PM
Ad Astra			26/602	(4:30pm)	26/602	(4:30pm)	41/602	(4:30pm)	$1.5m	6:00 PM
Downton Abbey			31/512	(4:30pm)	39/512	(4:30pm)	52/1015	(4:30pm)	$2.1m	7:00 PM
Rambo			29/302	(4:30pm)	53/1242	(4:30pm)	58/1242	(4:30pm)	$1.3m	6:00 PM
Abominable			30/255	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	73/1969	(4:30pm)	$.65m	6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week)	104/2766	(9am)	172/2766	(4:30pm)			217/3536	(4pm)		4:00 PM
Joker	328/3536	(4:20pm)	399/3536	(4pm)	542/3536	(4pm)	760/3741	(3:45pm)	$13.3m	4:00 PM
Gemini Man			38/1004	(4pm)	38/1004	(4pm)	78/1004	[6:30pm]	$1.55m	7:00 PM
Adams Family		(4pm)	53/1373	(4pm)	49/1373	(4pm)			$1.25m	4:00 PM
Maleficent 2	39/1154	(4pm)	42/1154	(4pm)	53/1154	(4pm)	96/1425	[6pm]	$2.3m	7:00 PM
Zombieland 2	51/1114	(4pm)	53/1114	(4pm)	67/1177	(4pm)	95/1478	[6pm]	$2.85m	7:00 PM
Black & Blue			19/410	(4pm)			20/410	(4pm)	$.68m	7:00 PM
Countdown			15/511	(4pm)			19/411	(4pm)	$.52m	7:00 PM
Terminator: DF	71/1242	(4pm)	71/1242	(4pm)	76/1242	(5:30pm)	113/1242	(4pm)	$2.35m	7:00 PM
Harriet	25/512	(4pm)	25/512	(4pm)	27/512	(5:30pm)	29/512	(4pm)	$.6m	7:00 PM
Midway	20/512	(4pm)	23/512	(4pm)	22/512	(4:30pm)	27/512	(5pm)	$.925m	7:00 PM
Dr Sleep	23/510	(4pm)	28/510	(4pm)	28/510	(4:30pm)	53/512	(5pm)	$1.5m	6:00 PM
Last Christmas	12/496	(4pm)	12/496	(4pm)	12/496	(4:30pm)	16/496	(5pm)	$.575m	7:00 PM
Playing With Fire	15/654	(4pm)	15/654	(4pm)	15/654	(4:30pm)	18/654	(4pm)		4:00 PM
Ford v Ferrari	50/1152	(4pm)	48/1152	(4pm)	53/1152	(4pm)	65/1152	(5:30pm)	$2.1m	6:00 PM
Charlies Angels	18/903	(4pm)	18/903	(4pm)	18/903	(4pm)	20/903	(4pm)	$.9m	4:00 PM
Frozen	122/1824	(4pm)	169/ 2724	(4pm)	208/ 2724	(4:30pm)	304/2274	(4:30pm)	$8.5m	6:00 PM
A Beautiful Day	30/768	(4pm)	30/768	(4pm)	36/768	(4:30pm)	52/768	(4:30pm)	$.9m	6:00 PM
21 Bridges	26/492	(4pm)	25/492	(4pm)	30/492	(4:30pm)	44/492	(4:30pm)	$.7m	7:00 PM
Knives Out (F&S eps)	42/514	(4pm)	53/514	(4pm)	67/514	(4:30pm)	85/514	(4:30pm)	$2.03m	7:00 PM
Knives Out (Wed)	42/937	(4pm)	81/937	(5:30pm)					$1.66m	7:00 PM
Jumanji 2	72/1864	(4pm)	120/3381	(5:30pm)	141/3381	(5:30pm)	178/3381	(4pm)	$4.7m	4:00 PM
Black Christmas	22/512	(4pm)	24/512	(5:30pm)	24/512	(5:30pm)	24/512	(4pm)	230k	7:00 PM
Star Wars: TROS	2106/4291	(4:30pm)		(9pm)	2,331/4547	(9pm)				6:00 PM
Cats	19/436	(4:30pm)			22/436	(5:30pm)				7:00 PM

 

 

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Preview Start
Star Wars: TROS	2106/4291	(4:30pm)		(9pm)	2,331/4,547	(9pm)				6:00 PM
Cats	19/436	(4:30pm)			22/436	(5:30pm)				7:00 PM

 

 

 

COMPS:

 

TROS

AEG (WED/ 9pm) = 4,853/5,493 = 88.35%   = $28.82m

 

It lost ground on Wed to AEG but again AEG has less than 10% non wheel chair seating left for Friday walk ups

 

CATS

Last Christmas:  $1.05m

Mal 2: . $.95m

 

[Yandereprime101189]

Soooo, what's the range for Thursday showings for TROS, estimated wise?

[XXR vs XXR]

28 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

Soooo, what's the range for Thursday showings for TROS, estimated wise?

I'd say $30-40m is the min/max. Others may disagree. 

[Legion Again]

29 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

Soooo, what's the range for Thursday showings for TROS, estimated wise?

34-42 is my current range

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, TLK said:

 

Have you any plans to run numbers for CATS Thursday previews as well?

Did not plan at all. Since you asked here you go.

 

Cats Previews

MTC1 Prev - overall 687 shows 7254/62278
MTC2 Prev - overall 516 shows 4587/51220

 

Probably looking at sub 1m previews. But let us see how things look tomorrow evening.

[VanillaSkies]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Did not plan at all. Since you asked here you go.

 

Cats Previews

MTC1 Prev - overall 687 shows 7254/62278
MTC2 Prev - overall 516 shows 4587/51220

 

Probably looking at sub 1m previews. But let us see how things look tomorrow evening.

I'm sure that 17% RT score isn't going to help persuade people much!

[Menor the Destroyer]

I don't see it going below $35 million and that's in the absolute worst case. I'm guessing $38-40 million for now.

 

I think people are overreacting to the reviews. It's not going to affect Thursday numbers really. It's FSS that will see the effect of reviews if any. Look at Italy where OD dropped 10% from TLJ, that's around where I'm seeing it.

Edited December 19, 2019 by Menor

[ZackM]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	2	43	13	1	0
Seats Added	375	3,778	4,224	321	6
Seats Sold	1,483	1,470	962	858	586
12/18/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	326	31,433	54,832	23,399	42.67%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	20	54	91	125	152

 

Just a note, today's numbers are from 22 hours of sales and yesterday's are from 28 hours.

[keysersoze123]

On 12/17/2019 at 9:14 PM, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 (T-2)

MTC1 previews -overall 6463 shows 428568/992189 6315156.59  +22421
MTC2 Previews - overall 3713 shows 278911/517004 3465469.00 +14790
MTC1 OD - overall 7549 shows 376731/1361150 5623961.33 +29233
MTC2 OD - overall 5972 shows 294353/913779 3184614.00 +25501
MTC1 D2 - overall 6052 shows 308639/1176057 4425738.92 +22636
MTC2 D2 - overall 5468 shows 240738/857727 2567671.00 +16266
MTC1 D3 - overall 6052 shows 193562/1168350 2780059.17  +17389
MTC2 D3 - overall 5544 shows 147993/870260 1519243.00  +14241

 

Huge boost for OD. at MTC2 the OD has pulled away though I expect previews to boost more on thursday and retake the lead.

SW9(T-1)

MTC1 Prev - overall 6639 shows 456501/1007630 6697499.61 +27933
MTC2 Prev - overall 3888 shows 297839/531164 3680091.00  +18928
MTC1 OD - overall 7876 shows 408986/1409370 6053025.69  +32255
MTC2 OD - overall 6130 shows 322828/935036 3465684.00 +28475
MTC1 D2 - overall 7882 shows 336608/1406219 4783433.60 +27969
MTC2 D2 - overall 6079 shows 262442/929105 2785509.00  +21704
MTC1 D3 - overall 7554 shows 214710/1363828 3058936.34  +21148
MTC2 D3 -  overall 6002 shows 164145/924711 1680303.00 +16152

 

I repasted D2/3 numbbers and so its same as afternoon. Numbers are higher across the board though not at a crazy level. Not sure its due to reviews or lack of availability of prime time seats. There is no question D1/2/3 have lots of seats available and so WOM will play a factor in its OW. Let us see how things go.

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	12	259	9118	27425	18307	66.75%

SELLOUT NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and/or wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	8*
Total Seats Added Today	493
Total Seats Sold Today	845

* NOTE: Includes two showings from theaters that have non-reserved seating

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp #1 

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	218.52		1063	7980		1/202	11167/19147	41.68%		45.23m
EG	73.37		1563	23767		50/316	5906/29673	80.10%		44.02m
TROS (adj)	n/a		750	17438		12/259	7895/25333	68.84%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame. 

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Endgame had 24 days of pre-sales.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Solo	309.98		377	4878		1/142	8575/13453	36.26%		43.71m
TROS (adj)	n/a		592	15121		12/259	5940/21061	71.80%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Solo.

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales and Solo 21 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

Spoiler

of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
DP2	185.92		8133		15121		34.58m
Solo	261.20		5789		15121		36.83m
JW:FK	242.79		6228		15121		37.15m
AM&tW	328.36		4605		15121		37.76m
Venom	360.41		4493		16193		36.04m
CM	165.24		10553		17438		34.21m
EG	65.42		26655		17438		39.25m
TLK	158.86		10977		17438		36.54m
It 2	323.50		5659		18307		33.97m
AVG							36.26m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

 

===

 

Another good increase from yesterday, but not remotely like the bump Endgame got.  Just not getting the sellouts or the increased showtimes in the prime time hours.  Still seeing 40m+ if Sacto is right.  But thinking 45m is pretty much off the table unless it has a great day tomorrow.

Edited December 19, 2019 by Porthos

[Madhuvan]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	12	259	9118	27425	18307	66.75%

SELLOUT NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and/or wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	8*
Total Seats Added Today	493
Total Seats Sold Today	845

* NOTE: Includes two showings from theaters that have non-reserved seating

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp #1 

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	218.52		1063	7980		1/202	11167/19147	41.68%		459.23m
EG	73.37		1563	23767		50/316	5906/29673	80.10%		44.02m
TROS (adj)	n/a		750	17438		12/259	7895/25333	68.84%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel and Endgame. 

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Endgame had 24 days of pre-sales.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp #2

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Solo	309.98		377	4878		1/142	8575/13453	36.26%		43.71m
TROS (adj)	n/a		592	15121		12/259	5940/21061	71.80%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Solo.

THEATER NOTE: If a theater in the region was not open for the above movies but is for TROS it WILL be counted as part of this adjustment.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales and Solo 21 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals (spoilered for space)

  Hide contents

of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
DP2	185.92		8133		15121		34.58m
Solo	261.20		5789		15121		36.83m
JW:FK	242.79		6228		15121		37.15m
AM&tW	328.36		4605		15121		37.76m
Venom	360.41		4493		16193		36.04m
CM	165.24		10553		17438		34.21m
EG	65.42		26655		17438		39.25m
TLK	158.86		10977		17438		36.54m
It 2	323.50		5659		18307		33.97m
AVG							36.26m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

 

 

===

 

Another good increase from yesterday, but not remotely like the bump Endgame got.  Just not getting the sellouts or the increased showtimes in the prime time hours.  Still seeing 40m+ if Sacto is right.  But thinking 45m is pretty much off the table unless it has a great day tomorrow.

Going by your numbers it can miss 40m through CM comp. It looks like CM over performed in Sacto. 

Edited December 19, 2019 by Madhuvan

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

459.23m

[Madhuvan]

Reviews have impacted @Porthos the ramp up is on lower side even for Star Wars. Below 1000 tickets in Sacto is alarming. 

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Fixed.

[charlie Jatinder]

T-1 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

 

MTC 1: $30.8mn Approx

 

At same time

Endgame: $46.5mn Approx

 

MTC 2: $17.6mn

 

At same time

Endgame: $27.3mn Approx 

The Lion King: $9mn

 

Nationwide estimates: $107mn

At same time

Endgame: $166mn

The Lion King: $55mn 

 

Note: All these numbers include a good amount of estimation. The system is working well but there's always margin of error, take +/-5%.

 

http://bit.ly/JatUSPS

[charlie Jatinder]

Will go with $37-39mn Previews. $48mn Friday. $181-182mn weekend.

Edited December 19, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[charlie Jatinder]

39 minutes ago, Porthos said:

T-1 Adjusted Comp #1 

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	218.52		1063	7980		1/202	11167/19147	41.68%		45.23m
EG	73.37		1563	23767		50/316	5906/29673	80.10%		44.02m
TROS (adj)	n/a		750	17438		12/259	7895/25333	68.84%		n/a

Going by adjusted comp pace, its CM heading for $38.25mn while Endgame at $42.5mn.

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 Day

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	6	302	22961	60404	37443	38.01%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Showings Added Today: 12

Total Seats Added Today: 2352

Total Seats Sold Today: 1758

 

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
Joker	272.66		8421		22961		36.26m
Frozen 2	355.43		6460		22961		30.21m

 

===

 

Reviews really didn't affect the pace here at all. Another great day for TROS.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Madhuvan said:

Going by your numbers it can miss 40m through CM comp. It looks like CM over performed in Sacto. 

Hence the phrase "if Sacramento is indicative".