The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Reckoning55]

If Thursday hits 45M then I am calling 205-210M opening.

 

42M then 200-205

 

39M then 195-200

 

36M then 190-195

 

I honestly don't see this dipping below 185M

Edited December 19, 2019 by Reckoning55
formatting

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

1 hour ago, Reckoning55 said:

If Thursday hits 45M then I am calling 205-210M opening.

 

42M then 200-205

 

39M then 195-200

 

36M then 190-195

 

I honestly don't see this dipping below 185M

thought it was tracking below 40M now?

[pepsa]

1 hour ago, Reckoning55 said:

If Thursday hits 45M then I am calling 205-210M opening.

 

42M then 200-205

 

39M then 195-200

 

36M then 190-195

 

I honestly don't see this dipping below 185M

Preview to OW ratio has been between 4.5 and 5 for TFA and TLJ.

So dropping by 3m in previews should atleast drop the total by $13.5m

 

45m then 215-220m

 

42m then 202-207m

 

39m then 189m-194m

 

36m then 176m-181m

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Will go with $37-39mn Previews. $48mn Friday. $181-182mn weekend.

If numbers in your sheet are right it may go for only $35 million previews and 44 million Friday

Edited December 19, 2019 by Menor

[TwoMisfits]

And for tracking, Atom is wishing TMobile subscribers a very merry Xmas next week and sending another $5 off and no ticket fees code to 80 million folks for any movie...if you thought holidays were gonna be good, wait til that kicks in:)...

 

Should help pop everything...and should probably unnaturally hold down movies on Monday (as all these folks wait for Tuesday:)...

 

PS - Might need to change my NYE movie plans with the kids and go back to 1st run (since we were planning a $2 Tuesday outing)...

Edited December 19, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Eric Duncan]

Cats Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	23	167	2,891	5.78%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 106

Total Seats Sold Today: 31

 

Comp

1.336x of Dora (1.67M)

2.169x of Abominable (1.41M)

0.769x of Addams Family (961K)

0.539x of Maleficent (1.24M)

2.456x of Last Christmas (1.41M)

0.965x of Charlie’s Angels (869K)

0.071x of Frozen II (604K)

0.392x of Jumanji (1.84M)

 

Did this stuff last night, but wasn't able to post anything until now.

[Eric Duncan]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	201	14,647	34,952	41.91%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 86

Total Seats Sold Today: 762

 

Comp

6.131x of It: Chapter Two 1 day before release (64.37M)

4.259x of Joker 1 day before release (56.64M)

6.235x of Frozen II 1 day before release (53M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.813x of Lion King 1 day before release (41.71M)

 

Yeah, this is going sub-40M. Reviews really killed the hype here.

[Menor the Destroyer]

If things don't start picking up for TROS I can see 35-43-47-41 for a $166 million OW. Last few days the jumps have not been impressive. I'm hopeful it can beat this but there is potential for it to go quite low.

[darthdevidem01]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

If things don't start picking up for TROS I can see 35-43-47-41 for a $166 million OW. Last few days the jumps have not been impressive. I'm hopeful it can beat this but there is potential for it to go quite low.

166 please. That is just impossible

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, darthdevidem01 said:

166 please. That is just impossible

 

It's really not I'm afraid. I' don't think it'll be that low but I wouldn't be shocked if it hit those numbers at this point. I'm thinking about $15-20m more than that right now, though.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, darthdevidem01 said:

166 please. That is just impossible

Nothing is impossible for the force:)...I'd been feeling $171M for the longest time, but even I might adjust down towards Disney's "expectations"...$160s seems very plausible...

[Blaze Heatnix]

166 million opening weekend would be delicious. BVS had the same opening and the writer is the same one for both movies. The game comes full circle.

[nevermore]

17 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

166 million opening weekend would be delicious. BVS had the same opening and the writer is the same one for both movies. The game comes full circle.

[Manny G]

37 minutes ago, Menor said:

If things don't start picking up for TROS I can see 35-43-47-41 for a $166 million OW. Last few days the jumps have not been impressive. I'm hopeful it can beat this but there is potential for it to go quite low.

Honestly it going below $180M would be an undisputed blow for the franchise especially considering the situation Overseas is no better. 

[Poseidon]

1 hour ago, Eric loves Rey said:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	201	14,647	34,952	41.91%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 86

Total Seats Sold Today: 762

 

Comp

6.131x of It: Chapter Two 1 day before release (64.37M)

4.259x of Joker 1 day before release (56.64M)

6.235x of Frozen II 1 day before release (53M)

 

Adjusted Comp

1.813x of Lion King 1 day before release (41.71M)

 

Yeah, this is going sub-40M. Reviews really killed the hype here.

There never was hype to be killed.

 

SW has a huge base viewership, but this did not create any hype in terms of excitement like Endgame or other movies, that exploded in the last week before opening.

 

This franchise would need a longer break to recover. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

42 minutes ago, darthdevidem01 said:

166 please. That is just impossible

It's lower than I currently expect but looking at the current numbers and making some extrapolations, it's far from impossible. If the bump for previews is below average (quite possible) it's looking at $35 million. Friday presales are looking to be in the $31 million range with a normal increase. If the movie is more presale heavy than TLJ, which is quite possible given 2 years of presale growth, then True Friday could be only $43 million. The rest of the weekend follows from there.

[Legion Again]

46 minutes ago, Menor said:

It's lower than I currently expect but looking at the current numbers and making some extrapolations, it's far from impossible. If the bump for previews is below average (quite possible) it's looking at $35 million. Friday presales are looking to be in the $31 million range with a normal increase. If the movie is more presale heavy than TLJ, which is quite possible given 2 years of presale growth, then True Friday could be only $43 million. The rest of the weekend follows from there.

Early (early) indications from other markets seem to be very low PSm’s and low IMs. Should know a lot more in 16 hours.

[a2k]

Seems a bit optimistic compared to gloom-doom but the fan-base is massive and should turn up consistently early on at least.

 

Weekday	Date	Gross	% Hold	Cume
Thu	19 Dec 19	38.0		38.0
Fri	20 Dec 19	46.5	22.5	84.5
Sat	21 Dec 19	52.5	12.5	137.0
Sun	22 Dec 19	44.5	-15.0	181.5

 

84.5 od = 2.22x previews (TLJ 2.33x)

181.5 ow = 4.78x previews (TLJ 4.89x)

2.76x for 500+ (TLJ 2.82x)

 

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, a2k said:

Seems a bit optimistic

 

7 minutes ago, a2k said:

181.5 ow 

2.76x for 500+

Well, I can’t quite put my finger on when it happened, but I guess I fell into the upside down. Time to step back for a bit and wait for midday updates/EOD Keyser.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 10/23/2019 at 12:19 PM, Jedi Jat said:

First 24 Hours estimated Sales.

1. Avengers: Endgame: $37mn Approx (Updated later $40mn)
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens: $25mn Approx
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker: $18mn Approx (Updated later $19.5mn)

 

On 10/23/2019 at 12:39 PM, Jedi Jat said:

On second look, this looks worrisome, the above two had 1st 24 hours doing 10% or more of weekend. IYKWIM.

So this works?